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#1324765 - 15/04/2015 19:21 NSW - Rain in SW NSW then Intense ECL - 17th to 24th April 2015
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
The end date of this thread's title is a bit open-ended depending on how any ECL's next week pan out.

Looks like rain spreading across western and southern NSW later this week before a cold front sweeps across and a possible intense east coast low forms next week. Obviously if it forms close enough to the coast, it could mean very heavy rain, some flash flooding and strong winds for parts of the coast (and possible snowfalls on the higher peaks of the ranges if there's enough SW'lies wrapping around its rear). But if it forms further out into the Tasman Sea than expected, it could just mean some showery breezy conditions.

Here's some graphics (the NAEFS output in the 1st image is for the period between 7 and 14 days from now while the 2nd image is the EC forecast winds for next Wed via Wunderground):







Edited by Seabreeze (21/04/2015 14:52)
Edit Reason: removed possible from title

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#1324785 - 15/04/2015 22:35 Re: NSW - Rain in SW NSW then Intense ECL - 17th to 24th April 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
Jimi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 1129
Loc: Killara
I like those last two in particular

Where do you live, out of interest? When I pop into other sub forums you're handiwork is sometimes there (your model outputs etc)... like you're omnipresent!

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#1324786 - 15/04/2015 22:49 Re: NSW - Rain in SW NSW then Intense ECL - 17th to 24th April 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
I'm pretty sure he lives in Brisbane.

Looks like this could be a big event depending on where this ECL lands
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1324817 - 16/04/2015 10:25 Re: NSW - Rain in SW NSW then Intense ECL - 17th to 24th April 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Thanks Jimi, yep Sea-Mist is indeed correct, I live in Brisbane.

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#1324822 - 16/04/2015 11:59 Re: NSW - Rain in SW NSW then Intense ECL - 17th to 24th April 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10186
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
I just hope a few places that need a decent drink get one!! smile

NW of the state still very dry and not overly likely to see enough sadly. Hopefully though Walgett may get a bit, places around there will jump for joy at even a bit of rain.

Southern areas though should have a nice drink.

If we could get say 20mm here, feed growth may just occur in time before frosts take hold.

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#1324887 - 16/04/2015 18:57 Re: NSW - Rain in SW NSW then Intense ECL - 17th to 24th April 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
Marts Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2006
Posts: 2276
Loc: Mona Vale, northern beaches , ...
Moderate rain falling here atm and even a few flashes and thunder to go with it, awesome!

Also I'm camping this weekend just up the coast so I recon there will be some good rainfall around.


Edited by Marts (16/04/2015 19:01)

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#1324890 - 16/04/2015 19:06 Re: NSW - Rain in SW NSW then Intense ECL - 17th to 24th April 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
Jimi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 1129
Loc: Killara
A bit of a downgrade this arvo?

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#1324894 - 16/04/2015 19:26 Re: NSW - Rain in SW NSW then Intense ECL - 17th to 24th April 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS G suggesting the ECL will intensify from off shore NE NSW and track southward. The southern flank will give the coastal regions a ..thrashing... (from high winds)from sydney and south of to SE coastal NSW monday, tuesday,wednesday ( 36 hrs)

this image is hot linked and will update
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#1324903 - 16/04/2015 19:58 Re: NSW - Rain in SW NSW then Intense ECL - 17th to 24th April 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Intense rain and wind for sydney and south of
Here is a snap of the ECL for Tuesday the 21st showing intense rain and
the mslp gradient between the high and low is 31 hpa here !
oh and note the nice coral sea tropical infeed and tropical dip in isobars

Nasty severe weather event looming with this scenario. If this forecast holds


Edited by crikey (16/04/2015 19:58)
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#1324908 - 16/04/2015 20:31 Re: NSW - Rain in SW NSW then Intense ECL - 17th to 24th April 2015 [Re: DaveM]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
Originally Posted By: DaveM
I just hope a few places that need a decent drink get one!! smile


I agree Dave. I too hope that the drier areas get some much needed rain. And that includes your area.

This event indeed looks very intense and could end up being very memorable. Just like the ECL in mid-October last year.
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1324912 - 16/04/2015 21:03 Re: NSW - Rain in SW NSW then Intense ECL - 17th to 24th April 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
ipex Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/05/2014
Posts: 182
Loc: Katoomba, NSW
What do people think about the chances of snow in he Blue Mountains? Mins not forecast to go below 4 in Katoomba, lowest maximum (of 9) forecast for Monday - not quite cold enough for snow?

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#1324915 - 16/04/2015 21:38 Re: NSW - Rain in SW NSW then Intense ECL - 17th to 24th April 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
Yeah I think you're right ipex- Looking at the 925 and 850mb temps, I think they're too warm for snow in the BM's. Anything can happen though I guess.
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1324918 - 16/04/2015 21:53 Re: NSW - Rain in SW NSW then Intense ECL - 17th to 24th April 2015 [Re: crikey]
Jon77 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/04/2012
Posts: 463
Originally Posted By: crikey
Intense rain and wind for sydney and south of
Here is a snap of the ECL for Tuesday the 21st showing intense rain and
the mslp gradient between the high and low is 31 hpa here !
oh and note the nice coral sea tropical infeed and tropical dip in isobars

Nasty severe weather event looming with this scenario. If this forecast holds


Excellent, bring it on

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#1324919 - 16/04/2015 21:55 Re: NSW - Rain in SW NSW then Intense ECL - 17th to 24th April 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
Duane Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/11/2005
Posts: 1426
Loc: Lake Albert, Wagga Wagga, NSW.
Radar looks good atm, but must be mostly Verga. Haven't had a drop yet.
Duane.

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#1324941 - 17/04/2015 07:40 Re: NSW - Rain in SW NSW then Intense ECL - 17th to 24th April 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Been watching this event from away out, but its really looking to be on now. Just wanted to make sure it wasn't going to get sucked to the SE.

It would seem the ridging of the high pressure system and the injection of the cut off cold pool and its subsequent transition across NSW are looking pretty well spot on to bring a perfect ECL scenario.

That is strong high fully cradling a low forming of the north coast and moving down the coast intensifying as the gradient increases, with the chance of coastal hugging or crossing. 350+mm being progged by GFS around the Hunter/MNC over the last couple runs, a couple more runs like that and theres no turning back.

Definitely has the potential for 2007 repeat. Still some time to dissolve, but the Hunter looks like the hot spot on this occasion, with the GFS scenario being the longest lasting and most intense, though Tuesday/Tuesday night looks like being wild either way (access or GFS).

Recon this could be the longest thread in a while.....

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#1324945 - 17/04/2015 08:07 Re: NSW - Rain in SW NSW then Intense ECL - 17th to 24th April 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
Duane Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/11/2005
Posts: 1426
Loc: Lake Albert, Wagga Wagga, NSW.
Started raining at about 4am this morning. Has been nice soaking rain perfect for sowing crops. There will be a few smiles about.
Duane.

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#1324949 - 17/04/2015 08:11 Re: NSW - Rain in SW NSW then Intense ECL - 17th to 24th April 2015 [Re: GringosRain]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
Originally Posted By: GringosRain

Recon this could be the longest thread in a while.....


I was thinking the same thing tbh.
Currently some annoying light rain falling and it's pretty dark and gloomy outside. Looks like there's some more to come. Temp 19C.
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1324960 - 17/04/2015 08:56 Re: NSW - Rain in SW NSW then Intense ECL - 17th to 24th April 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
rednocare Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/10/2012
Posts: 5
Loc: Winmalee, NSW, AU
Were the weather powers-that-be being a bit bashful about this event? This is the difference between tuesday and wednesday's 7-day outlook...





Interestingly I opened the second one as that dirty great big storm was going overhead on wednesday evening while WZ told me it would be clear... hmm.
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My local weather.

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#1324967 - 17/04/2015 09:27 Re: NSW - Rain in SW NSW then Intense ECL - 17th to 24th April 2015 [Re: GringosRain]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2842
Originally Posted By: GringosRain


That is strong high fully cradling a low forming of the north coast and moving down the coast intensifying as the gradient increases, with the chance of coastal hugging or crossing. 350+mm being progged by GFS around the Hunter/MNC over the last couple runs, a couple more runs like that and theres no turning back.

Definitely has the potential for 2007 repeat. Still some time to dissolve, but the Hunter looks like the hot spot


Love a bit of inclement weather but the pasha storm lapped the floor boards at a place i had right on shore of lake maq on the eastern side just south of Belmont
And that place was 1 a metre off the ground. I'm no longer right near the lake here in Swansea but am on a concrete slab only a foot off ground. If this scenario comes off i have a lot of prepping to do here by way of getting stuff off the ground inside. I will have to prep my mothers place who lives directly opposite the lake at Pelican. Have big high tides now before and after the new moon on Sunday. Lot of concern if heavy rain is sustained over a long period and a west or sw wind piling the water up on the eastern lakeside as happened in 2007
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#1324978 - 17/04/2015 09:51 Re: NSW - Rain in SW NSW then Intense ECL - 17th to 24th April 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10186
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
HAPPY BIRTHDAY DUANE!! smile I sent you some rain for the day!! smile

Like you it started lightly raining overnight, real slow and soaking. About 7mm to 9am then still raining persistently since then. Quite possibly up to near 10 mm now all up.

Rain band seems a bit further north than expected today. I am quietly hopeful of some really nice rain by the time this event is over, even better it should fall in places even much worse than us here. smile

I hate the humidity but I will gladly take it to get the consequent rain. smile

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