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#1326313 - 24/04/2015 16:06 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1093
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
Originally Posted By: Adam Ant
Whilst on the topic of ECLs, it was the May 1996 event that got me interested in weather as a 12 year old. We got 4 consecutive days of 100mm+ rainfall from it at my place in Toowoomba. That is unheard of in this region

http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/fld_reports/se_qld_may1996.pdf

Wow, some absolutely wild rainfall totals from that 1996 event, 1164mm over 10 days at Mt Tamborine including 5 straight days of 150+ mm!! Amazing how far inland the heavy falls extended too. Lived in WA at the time, can't say I remember anything from that 96 event other then a little bit of news coverage.

Haven't had more than 40mm from an ecl from memory in the 10 years I've lived here, would be very interesting to experience one that drops heavy rain this far inland. Maybe this will be the year??
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#1326357 - 24/04/2015 20:15 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Steve O Offline
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Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2887
Loc: Yatala, Gold Coast QLD
About to go image overload but here's a few images etc that look some what interesting. These are at different times but it's more just looking at some different variables, but mostly around late Thursday or early Friday. Or pushed back further or nothing at all. Will have to wait and see.

Probably still a fair way out but under 192hrs gets my hopes up abit. Going to be pretty touch and go with this possible ECL. Wether any activity is too far offshore or further south. There's also a strong mid/upper level trough.











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#1326385 - 24/04/2015 22:45 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Adam Ant]
James Chambers Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/07/2001
Posts: 1163
Loc: Springfield, SE Qld
Originally Posted By: Adam Ant
Whilst on the topic of ECLs, it was the May 1996 event that got me interested in weather as a 12 year old. We got 4 consecutive days of 100mm+ rainfall from it at my place in Toowoomba. That is unheard of in this region
http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/fld_reports/se_qld_may1996.pdf


Yeah, that was an amazing event - we had the low but then periods of ENE-WSW convergence right over Brisbane to the Downs. At times the convergence was no wider than 50km, but stretched over 150km inland. I measured 583mm at my place inside a week in the southern Brisbane suburbs. 1027mm in 6 days at Mt Glorious - closely behind Mt Tamborine's effort. 570mm in 4 days in the city. VERY lucky SEQ was fairly dry beforehand... and Wivenhoe was only at 55% at the start of the event. Still, it was the biggest event since 1974 at the time.

And yeah RWM, 1967 was a big year - firstly STC Dinah early on, which caused big erosion issues, then several ECL's in June. The Gold Coast was hardest hit, with massive erosion - long stretches of sand cliffs higher than 4 metres and roads damaged. To this day, if you dig in the right (wrong) place, you'll find buried car bodies that the council desperately moved onto the eroded beaches to stop further damage.

Also notably a nasty ECL which affected us in July 1965 and then the "Cherry Venture" ECL of 1973.
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#1326394 - 24/04/2015 23:59 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: James Chambers]
Nature's Fury Offline
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Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1780
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: James Chambers
Originally Posted By: Adam Ant
Whilst on the topic of ECLs, it was the May 1996 event that got me interested in weather as a 12 year old. We got 4 consecutive days of 100mm+ rainfall from it at my place in Toowoomba. That is unheard of in this region
http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/fld_reports/se_qld_may1996.pdf


Yeah, that was an amazing event - we had the low but then periods of ENE-WSW convergence right over Brisbane to the Downs. At times the convergence was no wider than 50km, but stretched over 150km inland. I measured 583mm at my place inside a week in the southern Brisbane suburbs. 1027mm in 6 days at Mt Glorious - closely behind Mt Tamborine's effort. 570mm in 4 days in the city. VERY lucky SEQ was fairly dry beforehand... and Wivenhoe was only at 55% at the start of the event. Still, it was the biggest event since 1974 at the time.

And yeah RWM, 1967 was a big year - firstly STC Dinah early on, which caused big erosion issues, then several ECL's in June. The Gold Coast was hardest hit, with massive erosion - long stretches of sand cliffs higher than 4 metres and roads damaged. To this day, if you dig in the right (wrong) place, you'll find buried car bodies that the council desperately moved onto the eroded beaches to stop further damage.

Also notably a nasty ECL which affected us in July 1965 and then the "Cherry Venture" ECL of 1973.


I remember the 96 event as a young fella but didn't realise it was from an ECL. I thought it was one of the those summer tropical lows. Until 2011 that was the only time I had seen the Brisbane River so high and compared to 2011 it was pathetically low.

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#1326403 - 25/04/2015 06:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Mad Elf #1.5 Online   content
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2751
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Couple of troughs coming over late next week as suggested earlier,
lets see what they bring, GFS suggests a copy of the last ECL, wish it ends up further north to give us a taste.
WATL is somewhat interested in a couple of inches over 4 days but mainly coastal with some crumbs reaching us & the range.

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#1326404 - 25/04/2015 07:25 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4509
One thing I'm really hoping doesn't happen (and there's no guarantees it will) is a repeat of last autumn/early winter where despite much warmer than normal waters off the NSW coast, most of the lower pressures/cyclogenesis became confined to southern WA/SA/TAS and adjacent waters with ECL's few and far between. In fact, instead of getting any kind of decent rainfall or even just a cold wraparound flow over us, it did the opposite and continued getting ridiculously warm as if we were heading into spring. Another similarity with last year was that there was ECL action with cool wraparound flow over us in April which then suddenly stopped in May. But I take some comfort from the fact that no two setups are exactly the same so I'd like to hope we won't have a repeat.

As for the coming days, there's a few interesting things. The next round of cooler to colder conditions still look on track (after a hot day today). The 1st image is the Etxreme Forecast Index map generated by the EC ensemble for 10am Sun to 10am Mon. The scale goes from -1 (extremely cool compared to normal) to +1 (extremely warm compared to normal).

Then there's that prospect of the deepening trough (tamest scenario) OR east coast low (strongest scenario) anywhere from SE QLD to southern NSW in around a week's time. If the trough or ECL deepens just to our north, we could get heavy rain and strong winds... but if the ECL or trough deepens to our south, we probably won't get much except for some further cooler weather. Either way, the setup still looks favourable for a deepening trough or ECL (upper cold air and trough sweeping across the warm waters off the east coast).

And lastly, the potential for some breezy/gusty conditions around the more exposed parts of our region (esp southern Downs/northern tablelands) from overnight Sat through Sun as the west to southwest winds behind the approaching front sweeps through. Below are some graphics. The 1st image is a GFS potential peak wind gust map for Sun. The 2nd image is the Etxreme Forecast Index map generated by the EC ensemble for 10am Sun to 10am Mon. The scale goes from -1 (extremely cool compared to normal) to +1 (extremely warm compared to normal). The 3rd image is a spaghetti plot showing all the scenarios going for pressures going below 1005hpa within the next 10 days (at least part of that apparent circulation near the NSW central coast may be from the intensifying area of low pressure passing over SE Australia into the Tasman Sea during the next few days):






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#1326410 - 25/04/2015 08:57 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Blowin']
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 811
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Interesting stuff thanks ken!

Looking forward to the SW tonight and tomorrow. Everything will dry up quickly with this warm weather and following dry SW.

Charts starting to agree a bit more about the low.
gfs may 2



Access for May 2




Originally Posted By: Blowin'
yes Mike, at this stage it looks quite promising for wind and swell for us but not so much for widespread inland rain.

Access has been hinting at this at the end of its run for a few days now and now gfs seems to be coming on board with the 16 day GFS showing a ecl forming offshore from bne on the 2nd of may and heading quicky south to give sydney another touch up.

Its interesting how these broard highs hit the tasman and diret a more E-ENE flow (in our areas), pull in some moist air off the coral sea (especially with the high ssts') and often spawn a low on their north western flank. Wether or not thats acutally the process I'm unsure, but seems to be a theme I've noticed.

the good thing for us about this coming setup, compared to the Sydney "megastorm" is that it's air mass seems to be origingting well to our north and the low forming somewhere near bne. So we may actually get a low in our forums AOR!

As Mike indicates, it's all dependant on the position of the high (as per the last ecl).

yes Hopfull, given the trajectory of the SOI we could well exect a return to those conditions. With a pile of black frosts to add insult to injury. Great weather watching though!



GFS MAY 2


ACCESS MAY 2


]


Edited by Blowin' (25/04/2015 09:06)

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#1326413 - 25/04/2015 09:41 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Mad Elf #1.5 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2751
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Great graphics Ken, thanks. Beautiful morning here, tomorrow will be interesting, possible 70kph SW winds around here will be great for a kite & beanie.

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#1326428 - 25/04/2015 11:20 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Nature's Fury]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23536
Loc: Townsville
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: James Chambers
Originally Posted By: Adam Ant
Whilst on the topic of ECLs, it was the May 1996 event that got me interested in weather as a 12 year old. We got 4 consecutive days of 100mm+ rainfall from it at my place in Toowoomba. That is unheard of in this region
http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/fld_reports/se_qld_may1996.pdf


Yeah, that was an amazing event - we had the low but then periods of ENE-WSW convergence right over Brisbane to the Downs. At times the convergence was no wider than 50km, but stretched over 150km inland. I measured 583mm at my place inside a week in the southern Brisbane suburbs. 1027mm in 6 days at Mt Glorious - closely behind Mt Tamborine's effort. 570mm in 4 days in the city. VERY lucky SEQ was fairly dry beforehand... and Wivenhoe was only at 55% at the start of the event. Still, it was the biggest event since 1974 at the time.

And yeah RWM, 1967 was a big year - firstly STC Dinah early on, which caused big erosion issues, then several ECL's in June. The Gold Coast was hardest hit, with massive erosion - long stretches of sand cliffs higher than 4 metres and roads damaged. To this day, if you dig in the right (wrong) place, you'll find buried car bodies that the council desperately moved onto the eroded beaches to stop further damage.

Also notably a nasty ECL which affected us in July 1965 and then the "Cherry Venture" ECL of 1973.


I remember the 96 event as a young fella but didn't realise it was from an ECL. I thought it was one of the those summer tropical lows. Until 2011 that was the only time I had seen the Brisbane River so high and compared to 2011 it was pathetically low.


I was living in Toowoomba and still to this day even though I was 5 remember going and seeing Lake Perseverance Really really high and all the creeks flooding.
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#1326471 - 25/04/2015 16:06 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6459
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
yawn....gfs going for a Brisbane SOUTH sort of event with each run.

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#1326473 - 25/04/2015 16:08 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4509
No probs Mad Elf. There may be a tiny chance (less than 1%) of a very localised shower or thunder near, or just off the coast tonight in the northwesterlies ahead of the approaching front but most, if not all locations shouldn't get anything. Shame there isn't more moisture/instability... shear in the 0-6km layer increases to an impressive 80 knots tonight.

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#1326493 - 25/04/2015 17:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Phantom Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/01/2009
Posts: 198
Loc: Buckendoon, NSW. 2472
Any one have any Idea what the area of low circulation moving NE heading for the NSW / QLD border is going to do if it gets this far, seems to be moving fairly rapidly ,should be here in the next few days. Is this the upper cold pool mentioned in previous posts if so it seems a bit early. Will it intensify when hits the warm water off our coast.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/satellite/

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#1326504 - 25/04/2015 17:58 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Phantom]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1780
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Well between the recent ECL, today's hailstorm and the upcoming ECL that is likely to be focused around NSW central coast, NSW really is getting all the action of late.

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#1326525 - 25/04/2015 19:41 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10146
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
I was in Port Macquarie yesterday. Finished what I had went there for and popped over to Tacking Point Lighthouse late that afternoon. Photo was taken from there, looking along Lighthouse Beach on the southern outskirts of the city -


I've seen some very distant lightning flashes here from storm activity WSW of Port Macquarie. It seems likely that we'll be too far north to pick up anything though.
The weather has been pretty boring since Apr 7th, but at least it's looking like there could be reasonable rainfall right at the end of this month.
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#1326531 - 25/04/2015 20:20 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 389
Loc: Elimbah 4516
EC still encouraging for Central and SE QLD with the moist easterly flow being enhanced by the strong upper trough inland QLD. It probably has the most precipitation then any other model at the moment for our region for this upcoming event. So I'm hoping EC is right. The chart below is for this Thursday.



Edited by Squeako_88 (25/04/2015 20:25)
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#1326542 - 25/04/2015 22:51 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1780
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Latest GFS also seems to agree with Access-G and EC on decent rainfall for SEQ. Brings the ECL closer to the coast with an initiation point further north. 150+mm along the whole coast of east Aus including Bris.

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#1326549 - 26/04/2015 08:17 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Mad Elf #1.5 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2751
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Bone dry cold WSW wind, hello winter.
Looking good for rain later in the week, WATL keeps up to 50mm over 4 days around here, going by past efforts that makes it about 15mm which is better than 0.

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#1326552 - 26/04/2015 08:44 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Hopefull Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1030
Loc: Toowoomba
One thing I have noticed with my limited ability to read models is they seem to have it developing and moving away very quickly which is far more realistic for such winter type patterns. But if it delivers useful rain further inland at least it will be remembered for at least something good.


Edited by Hopefull (26/04/2015 08:51)

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#1326554 - 26/04/2015 08:57 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
BIG T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 937
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Vigorous out there this morning , i reckon we have had a couple of gusts that would have had to be up around 60k.

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#1326558 - 26/04/2015 09:33 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Mad Elf #1.5 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2751
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Its a bit vigorous for sure.
Them trees are doing a bit of bending with them gusts. Kens chart yesterday hinted of @70kph gusts.

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