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#1326616 - 26/04/2015 18:23 Eastern NSW - ECL or deepening trough - 30th Apr to 3rd May 2015
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Once again, the dates for this thread are open-ended, especially the start date which I've made for Thursday to partly cover the deepening of the surface trough before any potential of an ECL occurs.

Well it'd be nice to think that this won't be a case of deja-vu but just can't be sure at the moment. The tamest scenario is just a significant deepening of a surface trough near the eastern QLD/NSW coast (or a low further offshore or inland than expected) with increasing showers... and the wildest scenario is another full blown intense ECL with widespread flash flooding, damaging winds, some severe thunderstorms and dangerous surf. And once again, the exact area of deepening of the trough or low should decide who gets a lot, and who gets little. As always, if an ECL does form and develops mulitple centres, it could wobble around erratically and hang around a bit.

Personally, I think it's more a question of exactly where the trough or low deepens rather than "if" because the setup looks favourable (upper level cold air and trough sweeping across the warm waters off the east coast). I'll post some more graphics in the coming days once confidence becomes higher on where and how significant this system will be. In the meantime, here's an ECL probability map for the period between this Thu and next Mon (automatically generated by data from a few of the models):


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#1326645 - 26/04/2015 22:46 Re: Eastern NSW - ECL or deepening trough - 30th Apr to 3rd May 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
Jon77 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/04/2012
Posts: 463
Thanks Ken.

The models have been flirting with the idea of another ECL in this time period for a little while and things seem primed for another.

It would be very worrying to have another ECL hit the Hunter to Sydney region again!

I am going to take a punt that if an ECL does form (which looks likely) that it will be further north this time, maybe around the Coffs/ Port M coastal area before it sinks south, but weakens.

Can't see it being as strong as the one just gone surely!


Edited by Jon77 (26/04/2015 22:46)

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#1326651 - 27/04/2015 03:42 Re: Eastern NSW - ECL or deepening trough - 30th Apr to 3rd May 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Yes. Does look like dejavu on ACCESS. Dip in tropical isobars for some serious moisture from the coral sea into the southern flank and and a deep high in the tasman to boost the turbos
ACCESS giving the worst to the mid and southern coasts currently with a whopping 34hpa mslp gradient on Saturday the 2nd may.
I am curently at toukley near newcastle. THe damage from the last ECL clearly evident. Some large trees over a number of houses. Tree rubble piled upalong the streets awaiting the council and SES. Budgewoi caravan park closed and evacuated due to no power and flood and tree damage.
Unfortunately another hit is on the cards with current forecast. Definitely heads up for another severe event

the image below is hotlinked and will update



Going to get home before thursday before the rain starts on the south east qld coast with the onshore flow feeding into the qld troughing


Edited by crikey (27/04/2015 03:47)
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#1326686 - 27/04/2015 10:38 Re: Eastern NSW - ECL or deepening trough - 30th Apr to 3rd May 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
Fireduck Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 16/01/2013
Posts: 28
Loc: Lake Munmorah
This will be one to watch. Even if it isnt as intense as the one just gone, any strong winds and/or heavy rain between the Hunter and Sydney will cause a signficant amount of damage due to the ground being at saturation point and a number of trees being damaged already or on leans. Given areas are already suffering from loss of power, damaged roofs or structures, a double whammy (even is weaker) is likely to create just as much damage due to the above points. Flooding would also be an major concern as all rivers/ lakes are only just starting to fall.

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#1326687 - 27/04/2015 10:40 Re: Eastern NSW - ECL or deepening trough - 30th Apr to 3rd May 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3346
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
The only model not in tune is EC, it attempts the trough and low, but it all gets pushed aside by a strong southern ocean cold front.
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Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1326688 - 27/04/2015 10:54 Re: Eastern NSW - ECL or deepening trough - 30th Apr to 3rd May 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
slotmachine Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/11/2007
Posts: 212
Loc: Newcastle
someone else can have this one.

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#1326695 - 27/04/2015 11:49 Re: Eastern NSW - ECL or deepening trough - 30th Apr to 3rd May 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1988
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
If this system comes into play at the end of the week Maitland will be in big trouble as the flood waters around in that area haven't gone down yet, so only a little rain would make the area flood real bad.with out another ECL,Thing on the models are not looking good.
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Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

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#1326712 - 27/04/2015 15:14 Re: Eastern NSW - ECL or deepening trough - 30th Apr to 3rd May 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6407
Loc: Dural
At this stage, it's looking like a deepening trough over Central NSW promoting an onshore flow.
This trough is set to head further east towards the weekend developing into an ECL Fri/Sat. Too early to tell exactly when and where this low will develop.
A strong front may push this low out quicker than expected hopefully.

Homer

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#1326722 - 27/04/2015 17:04 Re: Eastern NSW - ECL or deepening trough - 30th Apr to 3rd May 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8802
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
GFS now has a 350mm bullseye just off Newy. If that gets shifted even 50km further west there could be some trouble there along the coast. SST's are fairly warm off the northern half, combine that with a deep easterly infeed as forecast, there could be some significant falls around.

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#1326728 - 27/04/2015 18:11 Re: Eastern NSW - ECL or deepening trough - 30th Apr to 3rd May 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
slotmachine Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/11/2007
Posts: 212
Loc: Newcastle
I've had close to 500mm this month, someone else can have the heavy falls.

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#1326730 - 27/04/2015 18:14 Re: Eastern NSW - ECL or deepening trough - 30th Apr to 3rd May 2015 [Re: slotmachine]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6407
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: slotmachine
I've had close to 500mm this month, someone else can have the heavy falls.


So, are you trying to tell us Slotty that you don't need another 350 mm's?

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#1326741 - 27/04/2015 20:13 Re: Eastern NSW - ECL or deepening trough - 30th Apr to 3rd May 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
slotmachine Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/11/2007
Posts: 212
Loc: Newcastle
Ark isn't quite finished.

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#1326747 - 27/04/2015 21:26 Re: Eastern NSW - ECL or deepening trough - 30th Apr to 3rd May 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It does look like it's on, but this new system does not look like it will be as long lasting as the last one. The models don't show the system being cradled by strong high pressure, so it will be allowed a quick escape into the the Southern Ocean.

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#1326748 - 27/04/2015 21:27 Re: Eastern NSW - ECL or deepening trough - 30th Apr to 3rd May 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2842
This is not good at all. And my ants think so too. I have been where I currently live almost 12 mths after moving from Toukley and today I discovered ants higher deeper into my abode then ever before. Don't ask me how they know trouble is afoot but they do. A friend of mine mentioned to me today that he was thinking of building a kayak and asked me if I would like one too. I said no but maybe I should have said yes.
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#1326749 - 27/04/2015 21:38 Re: Eastern NSW - ECL or deepening trough - 30th Apr to 3rd May 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
They reckon this system will have a lot less rainfall which is good. But on saturated/waterlogged ground, even 50mm could probs trigger some pretty bad flooding because the ground can't soak it up.

I just hope the authorities (and Bureau of M) are more prepared for this one. I think the last one gave everyone a wake up call.
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1326752 - 27/04/2015 21:48 Re: Eastern NSW - ECL or deepening trough - 30th Apr to 3rd May 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Like last time this far out, the forecast for Sydney and Newcastle look quite benign, with 'showers' on most days and possible thunderstorms on Thursday and Saturday. Temperature ranges of around 15 to 22 later this week suggest lengthy fine/sunny periods, not East Coast Low weather. The forecast says nothing about wind higher than 30kph.

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#1326754 - 27/04/2015 21:55 Re: Eastern NSW - ECL or deepening trough - 30th Apr to 3rd May 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
corsto Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2005
Posts: 358
Loc: Chittaway Pt, n.s.w - Cent. Co...
oh god not again... only just finished cleaning up after the last flood. Council wont even pick up the rubbish piles before there washed away again

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#1326776 - 28/04/2015 09:16 Re: Eastern NSW - ECL or deepening trough - 30th Apr to 3rd May 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10186
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
"Ark not finished yet" excellent comeback slotty!! smile

Yes a lot less rain will have a solid impact this soon after the last one. Not looking anywhere near as intense or extended though. Hopefully no more than an inconvenience this time.

This one looks to have very little chance of doing anything this side of the GDR.

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#1326778 - 28/04/2015 09:43 Re: Eastern NSW - ECL or deepening trough - 30th Apr to 3rd May 2015 [Re: corsto]
Muggy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/02/2014
Posts: 116
Loc: Gosford, Central Coast, NSW
I know how you feel corsto. Only got power back on last night after 7 days after a huge tree knocked down a transformer pole outside my house last Monday.

Even a gust of wind makes me paranoid at the moment let alone another ECL!

I notice the BOM are a bit more proactive this time, with the NSW regional director holding regular briefings with the emergency services well in advance.

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#1326789 - 28/04/2015 11:04 Re: Eastern NSW - ECL or deepening trough - 30th Apr to 3rd May 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1988
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Looking out side you wouldn't think that another low might be looming up the coast,it is clear, sunny, and no wind a lovely day,lovely day before the STORM.
_________________________
https://www.facebook.com/supercell1
Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

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