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#1327859 - 04/05/2015 18:15 Vic - arrival of a snowy cold front 10-12/5/15
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
After several embedded cold fronts in a persistent Westerly regime over the previous 6 days, the front to impact Vic at the end of this coming weekend/early next week looks to be more significant according to GFS:



To me, the present weather trend potentially allows the possibility of remnants of snow from this front, helped by subsequent fronts, to hang around till the June ski opening weekend?

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#1327860 - 04/05/2015 18:32 Re: Vic - arrival of a snowy cold front 10-12/5/15 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Would be great if it came off mate! Certainly looks a potent cold front and low! Any chance of low-level snowfalls? wink

Also hoping for more soaking rain, hail, squalls, and storm action too! smile

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#1327862 - 04/05/2015 18:45 Re: Vic - arrival of a snowy cold front 10-12/5/15 [Re: Petros]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
and that wind forecast is a 'knock out'. Will any snow be able to land. Blizzard perhaps
Nice heads up there petros. A juicy chart for sure
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#1327876 - 04/05/2015 20:35 Re: Vic - arrival of a snowy cold front 10-12/5/15 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1310
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Nice thread petros!:)

This last front that u mention here thats due to come at us early next week is a beauty!

If it hold true then u would think snow would arrive down to around the 5-600mtr mark? Very cold!

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#1328023 - 05/05/2015 19:29 Re: Vic - arrival of a snowy cold front 10-12/5/15 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1310
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Looking colder and better again on tonights run lol
Bitterly cold!!

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#1328036 - 05/05/2015 21:10 Re: Vic - arrival of a snowy cold front 10-12/5/15 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
ACCESS has jumped back online for next week, with the cold front blasting north through Victoria into NSW/ACT towards Queensland next Wednesday! grin

Then it could evolve into an ECL in the Tasman Sea in the days afterwards... have to wait and see! wink

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#1328137 - 06/05/2015 18:44 Re: Vic - arrival of a snowy cold front 10-12/5/15 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
A taper-off on present GFS model run:


Far less cold SW'ly tilt in the SM winds into Vic early next week acc. to this run.

.... not that it moots an opportunity to go camping at Tidal River either wink


Edited by Petros (06/05/2015 18:44)

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#1328157 - 06/05/2015 20:40 Re: Vic - arrival of a snowy cold front 10-12/5/15 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1310
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah gfs has lost its way a little on this one,whilst accessg still has it punching through and still very cold!Still alot to play out on this one smile

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#1328289 - 07/05/2015 20:31 Re: Vic - arrival of a snowy cold front 10-12/5/15 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1310
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Gfs likes this again even more on tonights run,pushing the 528 line onto gippsland coast smile

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#1328295 - 07/05/2015 21:04 Re: Vic - arrival of a snowy cold front 10-12/5/15 [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Originally Posted By: doogasnow
Gfs likes this again even more on tonights run,pushing the 528 line onto gippsland coast smile


What about Melbourne and the Dandenong Ranges? I want low-level snow too lol wink

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#1328297 - 07/05/2015 21:26 Re: Vic - arrival of a snowy cold front 10-12/5/15 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1310
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah i think the dandey's could see some if the 528 line stays
up were it is aussie smile

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#1328298 - 07/05/2015 21:38 Re: Vic - arrival of a snowy cold front 10-12/5/15 [Re: Petros]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1555
Loc: Orange, NSW
That's what I like to see! I'll put money on Mt Macedon getting something out of this lot, as long as the precip makes its way there. Hopefully we get some good stuff here - peak elevation on my property is a bit above the 500m mark.
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#1328302 - 07/05/2015 23:33 Re: Vic - arrival of a snowy cold front 10-12/5/15 [Re: davidm]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7003
Originally Posted By: davidm
That's what I like to see! I'll put money on Mt Macedon getting something out of this lot, as long as the precip makes its way there. Hopefully we get some good stuff here - peak elevation on my property is a bit above the 500m mark.


Hopefully we hear a report from "avalon" who lives at Mt Macedon. Hope you get some action at your place too.

Wave Rider/Sea-Mist
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#1328303 - 07/05/2015 23:40 Re: Vic - arrival of a snowy cold front 10-12/5/15 [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Originally Posted By: doogasnow
Yeah i think the dandey's could see some if the 528 line stays
up were it is aussie smile


Yay!! grin

Out of curiosity, what does the "528 line" represent? Forgive my ignorance, still learning how to study the science of meteorology beyond the basics lol. Does "528" equal 528 metres above sea level or something else? smile

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#1328305 - 08/05/2015 00:42 Re: Vic - arrival of a snowy cold front 10-12/5/15 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1555
Loc: Orange, NSW
Originally Posted By: aussiestormfreak
Out of curiosity, what does the "528 line" represent? Forgive my ignorance, still learning how to study the science of meteorology beyond the basics lol. Does "528" equal 528 metres above sea level or something else? smile


In basic terms... [censored]'s cold grin

This guide is pretty decent, but fairly technical: http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/152
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#1328343 - 08/05/2015 11:14 Re: Vic - arrival of a snowy cold front 10-12/5/15 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2099
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Just an observation, but -

These Access models nearly always seem to dissipate to varying degrees and what does come through is at least a day later than the predictions.

Having said that, if the models stay true then next Wed/Thur are shaping up for a very cool spell with very low thickness figs. Low is cold right ?

eg -

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

Some rain forecast Wed, so some moisture to support a snow fall.

eg -

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

Temps not showing real cold, cold enough for snow ?

eg-

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

The thing mostly on my mind though is how the quite high atmospheric Pressure (1020 - 1024) will affect all of this ?

I know this is based on one model (Access) but any comments would be valued.

Is it going to get into it next Wed/Thur - the question on everyones lips ?

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#1328344 - 08/05/2015 11:38 Re: Vic - arrival of a snowy cold front 10-12/5/15 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2099
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Colder still in NSW 0400 Thur morning 14/5.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

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#1328353 - 08/05/2015 13:13 Re: Vic - arrival of a snowy cold front 10-12/5/15 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2652
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
FEELS early cold winter of 13.7c at 1pm overcast reach up to south NSW. By next Wednesday cold air belt will reach far North West NSW.



Edited by chasers addict (08/05/2015 13:16)

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#1328356 - 08/05/2015 13:26 Re: Vic - arrival of a snowy cold front 10-12/5/15 [Re: Petros]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1555
Loc: Orange, NSW
I always have to get out the digital colour metre with those charts, difficult to tell which colour is which. Looks like a big area of 4c-6c forecast, I'd say that's within the realm of isolated snow falls if we get a few coldies come through. Only really need one good cold shower to drop temps down by a couple of degrees, and a few in a row usually ends in snowfall.

That's what did it here last year anyway, and it's what I've seen a couple of times when I was up in Bathurst. We'd see temps hovering around that mark and then dropping very suddenly to deliver flakes. I wouldn't call myself much of a snow chaser, my experience with it has only really been when I'm caught by surprise, but if those charts stay true then I'd say we're in for at least a flake or two up here.

In a couple of days Wundermap will be the place to look for the forecasts, they have snow prediction maps from GFS and ECMWF, though aren't very accurate further out.

12z ECMWF has this showing for 13:00 Wednesday:



And 12z GFS has this promising outlook for 04:00 Wednesday:



(Apologies for image size, should've screenshotted a smaller window ;))
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#1328357 - 08/05/2015 13:28 Re: Vic - arrival of a snowy cold front 10-12/5/15 [Re: Petros]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1555
Loc: Orange, NSW
Wundermap link for those interested:

http://wxug.us/1oj33
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