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#1328252 - 07/05/2015 16:45 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3122
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
I wish my phone camera lens wasn't so scratched. Witnessed a really nice dust devil near Park Ridge I was heading towards Marsden. Was just off the road in the dirt on the right hand side coming towards me on the other side of the road it was crankin.I contemplated pulling over but figured my camera wouldn't do it justice and didn't look like it would last long as there were alot of trees near by. Just love em! So intriguing.


Edited by Steve O (07/05/2015 16:48)

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#1328315 - 08/05/2015 07:38 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1784
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Well starting to cool now 1.8 deg in Roma this morning.Think it will be colder tomorrow .
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1328351 - 08/05/2015 12:48 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Weatheresque Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 186
Loc: Buderim, Sunshine Coast
Just spotted a front page piece from yesterday's Sydney Morning Herald in a cafe - tipping El Nino is back with a vengeance. Is BOM on the verge of confirming this Ken?
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Storm drama queen.

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#1328366 - 08/05/2015 15:22 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1084
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Gee the next week or so looks like being sublime weather around our parts,ripper time of year in brizzie.

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#1328368 - 08/05/2015 15:30 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5133
The sea surface temp anomalies in the eastern central Pacific are already in El Nino territory, there's also been some recent atmospheric signs as well in terms of trade wind anomalies/westerly wind bursts, and there's now the classic tongue of warm SST anomalies extending west across the eastern central Pacific you get with most El Nino's. But these need to be strongly sustained for months before you can declare it as a true El Nino event even though many of its symptoms might be present.

It looks like there might be some further warming of the waters in that region through late autumn/early winter BUT whether this trend continues after early winter or not is the big question. We're currently at the time of year (autumn) when predicting an El Nino, La Nina or neutral phase is pretty tricky because just a slight push either way can make a big difference. You can view the latest wrap-up here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview

There's also the all-important caveats which often tend to be neglected. For example a) El Nino doesn't always mean dry everywhere with no flooding (rainfall patterns vary with event to event). The coastal fringe in VIC, NSW and far SE QLD (as well as WA) tend to suffer somewhat less than inland areas. You can still get rain events and flooding during El Nino's although they tend to be much less common.... b) while it's convenient on paper, ENSO phases aren't always black and white in reality and some events can be hover on the borderline of El Nino or La Nina territory - last spring through summer was a classic example of borderline non-textbook El Nino/warm neutral conditions... c) the effects of ENSO phases on rainfall tend to be weaker outside the winter/spring months but this can also vary. You can check out the past average rainfall patterns in winter/spring during classic El Nino's as well as those during past individual El Nino's here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ninocomp.shtml

So in a nutshell, SST anomalies and some other signs are already in El Nino territory but these need to be sustained for much longer to declare it a true El Nino event... this will probably continue through late autumn/early winter, if not beyond.... and El-Nino doesn't always = dry everywhere (but many do).

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#1328384 - 08/05/2015 17:39 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Kazz63 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2011
Posts: 1463
Loc: Kingaroy
Ken?
Ken???
There you are! I've been waiting for you to let me know about frost risks & here you are in ENSO land.

In the Kingaroy area, this morning had a slight risk of frost but none eventuated, tomorrow has no risk, Sunday back to slight risk. The only obvious difference I see at a glance is the temperatures.
I was wondering if dew point/ humidity etc can also help predict frosts or is it basically just temperature & 'luck'?

After that answer/explanation I'll be looking for volunteers to cover my hedge plants ... any takers? (lol)
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Sherlock Holmes 28 March 13:08

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#1328388 - 08/05/2015 17:59 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
On weather news. Brisbane a low of 12 deg c tonight and that is the same as Adelaide .Nice and nippy for the coast
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#1328390 - 08/05/2015 18:16 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Kazz63 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2011
Posts: 1463
Loc: Kingaroy
Our low has been predicted as 6 deg; so far the low predicted temps end up being about 2 or 3 degrees lower in reality. Thank heavens I can sleep in for once, lol.

I think the lowest so far here this month has been around 3.5.
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Sherlock Holmes 28 March 13:08

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#1328394 - 08/05/2015 19:03 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1784
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Roma going for 1 deg so i say frost for here.
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1328396 - 08/05/2015 19:24 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3313
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
'Bout time we get a bit colder to sort out them damn bugs.

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#1328397 - 08/05/2015 19:36 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 900
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Thanks Ken, great info.
Here's the weekly anomaly, looks on the "El" side of Nino although it's quite warm both sides of the pacific and in between too!
Binino? I guess convection will always have to choose a side.


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#1328399 - 08/05/2015 19:40 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3313
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Even warmer in the Indian, might feed some of the fronts moving across. I get the feeling of lots of snow down south this year.

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#1328401 - 08/05/2015 19:42 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 900
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Yeh, Definitely, a lot of extra energy in both oceans.
This be a rather large high. Is that a cyclone?


Edited by Blowin' (08/05/2015 19:46)

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#1328406 - 08/05/2015 20:45 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3313
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Anti-cyclone Blowin'
Big pile of dry air rotating anticlockwise, usually feeding cold air to lows to its east to make nice big snow flakes.
That other feature you are writing about in the NE is just a low trying to stick its head up.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (08/05/2015 20:48)

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#1328416 - 08/05/2015 22:32 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 900
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Anti-cyclone Blowin'
Big pile of dry air rotating anticlockwise, usually feeding cold air to lows to its east to make nice big snow flakes.
That other feature you are writing about in the NE is just a low trying to stick its head up.


Yeh its bumping the low away while stealing all its food. That's why it's a anti cyclone! Ha!
Looks like a good time to dig out my ugg boots brrrr!

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#1328430 - 09/05/2015 08:57 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1784
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Got down to 0.3 deg in Roma this morning ,Didn't notice any frost at my place .
Been quiet in here this morning.
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1328434 - 09/05/2015 09:13 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: ozone doug]
Kazz63 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2011
Posts: 1463
Loc: Kingaroy
Originally Posted By: ozone doug
Got down to 0.3 deg in Roma this morning ,Didn't notice any frost at my place .
Been quiet in here this morning.
Yes, as usual we went below the predicted temp & ended up with 1.5 deg.
No frost in sight here either thank heavens.
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Sherlock Holmes 28 March 13:08

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#1328469 - 09/05/2015 16:28 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5133
Haha Kazz, yes I'm still here. The ideal conditions for standard frost caused by overnight cooling are calm or very light winds, grass level temps close to, or below freezing for enough time and air that isn't TOO dry. Even just a bit of wind can stir the air up near the ground and prevent grass level temps from getting quite cold enough for long enough if temps are marginal.

I'm loving the cooler nights though. This morning's grass min temp at Stanthorpe was -2C while air mins include -0.8C at Stanthorpe, 0.7C at Warwick and 5.7C at Amberley. Yesterday's mins include -0.6C at Stanthorpe, 1.6C at Warwick and 5.2C at Amberley.

Looks like we might get a burst of even colder SW'lies from midweek behind another front sweeping across SE Australia. I'd personally rate snow/sleet chances on the highest mountains in the Granite Belt as 5% around the border ranges and around 20% for the southern parts of the NSW northern tablelands but this could easily change. Could also get fairly breezy mid to late week.

Below are some graphics (the thickness plume forecast graph is for Stanthorpe):

P.S. and yes, tropical low OR cyclone could develop in the far northern Coral Sea later next week.






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#1328472 - 09/05/2015 17:05 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Ken Kato]
Kazz63 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2011
Posts: 1463
Loc: Kingaroy
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Haha Kazz, yes I'm still here. The ideal conditions for standard frost caused by overnight cooling are calm or very light winds, grass level temps close to, or below freezing for enough time and air that isn't TOO dry. Even just a bit of wind can stir the air up near the ground and prevent grass level temps from getting quite cold enough for long enough if temps are marginal.

Great so if I set up fans in the front yard my hedge should be safe this year smile
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Also, please note that sentences can also end in full stops. The exclamation mark can be overused.
Sherlock Holmes 28 March 13:08

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#1328473 - 09/05/2015 17:27 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1488
Loc: Australia
Really enjoying this settled weather and hopefully it continues into the foreseeable future. Its fair to say we dont really wont those low pressure storms again this year with the damage and people suffering from it.

I noticed Ken a big pool of cold air forecast to hit the Northern Territory next saturday. It will be interesting to see if that will trigger some rain around the Alice springs area??
http://forecasts.bsch.com.au/stormcast.html?ops=gfs:2015050900:2015051612:aus:t500:null:0#sc

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