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#1329286 - 15/05/2015 19:13 Vic - after 1040hPa high, arrival of a low system which may intensify 19-22 May 2014
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Enjoy the sunshine about to arrive tomorrow onwards Vic's (we are well due!).

The system to follow looks interesting at this early stage. Not for phenomenal weather, but more so the chance of some handy 1/2 inch(ish) falls possible for much of Vic IF GFS here comes to eventuate:


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#1329308 - 16/05/2015 00:47 Re: Vic - after 1040hPa high, arrival of a low system which may intensify 19-22 May 2014 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Hey Petros! Beat me to it mate! lol wink

Yes I was just going to comment in the "discussions on possible events to come" thread, but here's my contributing post: smile

A bit of confusion as to what scenarios are set to unfold next week, with the synoptic charts and ACCESS painting somewhat different pictures. But for starters, the strong high currently muscling in from the west, which should bring some glorious late-autumn weather over the next few days! Hoping for one or two last 20C+ days for Melbourne before the long wait for August/September begins! smile

The satellite imagery shows a cold front approaching WA; the synoptics have it weakening and dissolving into a troughy cut-off low as it moves east across the Great Australian Bight and SA, with a northerly airflow developing across Victoria by early-next week. Another stronger cold front charges north from Antarctica, and provides a potential renewed injection of cold air into the low over the State by mid-next week. Add to the equation a possible "easterly/tropical dip" which could unfold as another possible trough develops over inland NSW/ACT and Queensland, fed by Pacific moisture from the Tasman and Coral Seas, and then links into the low. And then it has a possible ECL taking shape as the system moves offshore! smile

Could provide another welcome burst of heavy rainfall, but hopefully more widespread, especially in drier parts of Victoria. Hopefully some late-season thunderstorm action as well! More snow for the High Country as well? wink

Fingers crossed! smile

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#1329329 - 16/05/2015 10:27 Re: Vic - after 1040hPa high, arrival of a low system which may intensify 19-22 May 2014 [Re: Petros]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1555
Loc: Orange, NSW
Satellite imagery off the coast of WA is very interesting, will have to take a look at the MODIS imagery when it's in.

SCC briefing for the week - TL;DR \_(ツ)_/

Quote:

The weather model guidance is indicating that a broad low pressure trough will reside across Victoria on Wednesday destabilsing the atmosphere. Showers and thunderstorms are possible in all districts. Rainfall guidance is diverse amongst the models, with totals mostly less than 5mm, however locally higher falls of 10mm+ are possible if thunderstorms develop.
The movement and intensity of the low pressure trough late next week is highly variable amongst the global weather models. One of the models suggest 50-100mm of rain is possible over central Vic; will have to wait and see how this unfolds next week due to the high degree of uncertainty.
_________________________
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#1329333 - 16/05/2015 11:07 Re: Vic - after 1040hPa high, arrival of a low system which may intensify 19-22 May 2014 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 8.3C, currently around 14C. It was foggy/cloudy this morning, now it's nice and sunny...after 12 consecutive days with rain! smile

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#1329342 - 16/05/2015 13:30 Re: Vic - after 1040hPa high, arrival of a low system which may intensify 19-22 May 2014 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My first 18C+ reading in about 2 weeks! Peaked at 18.5C earlier, currently 17.7C. Very nice. smile

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#1329361 - 16/05/2015 16:05 Re: Vic - after 1040hPa high, arrival of a low system which may intensify 19-22 May 2014 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Actually, it's reached 19.8C today! Currently 18.2C. smile

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#1329384 - 16/05/2015 19:28 Re: Vic - after 1040hPa high, arrival of a low system which may intensify 19-22 May 2014 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
11.4 - 16.6C here today for me, calm, and sun FINALLY (after god knows how many days) emerged after lunch making golf very pleasurable at Royal Maffra (I was C grade winner!). Baro steady on 1036 hPa.



Edited by Petros (16/05/2015 19:29)

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#1329392 - 16/05/2015 20:51 Re: Vic - after 1040hPa high, arrival of a low system which may intensify 19-22 May 2014 [Re: Petros]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1555
Loc: Orange, NSW
Looks like today will break my run of consecutive rain days, got up to 12 (though one or two of those days were trace readings). Nice to get a bit of sun for a change though smile
_________________________
Wunderground | davidm.com.au

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#1329394 - 16/05/2015 21:08 Re: Vic - after 1040hPa high, arrival of a low system which may intensify 19-22 May 2014 [Re: Petros]
Alex_96L Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/02/2015
Posts: 220
Loc: Mulgrave (SE Suburbs), Melbour...
Had a maximum of 18.4C. I can only guess what the minimum was since the temperatures seem to spike at lower temperatures.

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#1329410 - 17/05/2015 00:11 Re: Vic - after 1040hPa high, arrival of a low system which may intensify 19-22 May 2014 [Re: davidm]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Originally Posted By: davidm
Looks like today will break my run of consecutive rain days, got up to 12 (though one or two of those days were trace readings). Nice to get a bit of sun for a change though smile


Yes indeed it is Davidm, I also had 12 consecutive days with rain, two or three of which also had trace readings. Over 60mm for the month now! smile

Currently 8.6C here. Expecting a foggy morning and hopefully another gloriously sunny afternoon tomorrow! smile

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#1329443 - 17/05/2015 11:59 Re: Vic - after 1040hPa high, arrival of a low system which may intensify 19-22 May 2014 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 8.3C, currently around 21C (my first 20C+ day in a fortnight). Lovely sunshine with a slight breeze, but can't confirm if we had fog this morning. smile

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#1329461 - 17/05/2015 18:26 Re: Vic - after 1040hPa high, arrival of a low system which may intensify 19-22 May 2014 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
We got the first light frost for this winter this morning, clearing to a glorious calm clear day 19C under 1034 hPa. Spent lunchtime down on the Gippsland Lakes at Paynesville today, so nice down there that you could imagine that there would be no better place on earth at that time.

The looming change now looks to be a short-lived thundery typical cold front, followed closely by more autumnal sunshine if GFS holds this course of events:

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#1329463 - 17/05/2015 19:35 Re: Vic - after 1040hPa high, arrival of a low system which may intensify 19-22 May 2014 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
No frost in my area this morning, but yes it was delightfully warm and sunny, peaking at 22.3C. A bit hazy though, but still nice! I'm down in Dandenong atm; it was around 14C when I left my home in Belgrave approximately 2 hours ago. smile

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#1329491 - 18/05/2015 10:47 Re: Vic - after 1040hPa high, arrival of a low system which may intensify 19-22 May 2014 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 7.7C, currently around 18C and sunny, although a bit hazy again (unsure if there was fog this morning). Should be a great day for tennis later, in fact it looks likely to be Melbourne's last 20C+ day for the season. Hope I'm wrong though! smile

Air pressure's dropping now, having peaked at 1034hPa over the weekend. Loving the satellite pictures atm! smile

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#1329518 - 18/05/2015 18:27 Re: Vic - after 1040hPa high, arrival of a low system which may intensify 19-22 May 2014 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Peaked at 23.0C this arvo, nice to once again walk around in T-shirt and shorts, and the lack of strong wind made tennis all the more enjoyable this evening! Still quite mild, around 13.0C. Air pressure reading at 1023hPa. smile

Nice low pressure system and trough out west, and good to see that a cold front is merging into the system from the southwest! smile

Skies were virtually cloudfree (albeit hazy) until sunset. Cloud will increase overnight, with showers arriving tomorrow, hopefully a thunderstorm as well. smile

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#1329519 - 18/05/2015 18:31 Re: Vic - after 1040hPa high, arrival of a low system which may intensify 19-22 May 2014 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Hope that W Vic get the 5-10mm on offer in overnight models.

Cant update because all the WZ models bar EC haven't been updated on WZ this arvo yet.

Light frost on the car this morning. Mild calm and sunny here 19C.

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#1329558 - 19/05/2015 00:33 Re: Vic - after 1040hPa high, arrival of a low system which may intensify 19-22 May 2014 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2652
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very interesting pattern next week gone crazy

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#1329562 - 19/05/2015 01:29 Re: Vic - after 1040hPa high, arrival of a low system which may intensify 19-22 May 2014 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Tempersture was falling steadily as usual as the sun went down, but the cloudcover, northerly winds, and humidity (albeit not high, only around 40%) are keeping it from dropping down into the single-digits!

The lowest it's got to tonight so far is 12.0C, at 9:50pm. It bounced back up to 14.8C around an hour ago. Now it's still hovering around the 14C mark. So a relatively mild night. smile

Oh btw, it was around 15-16C during my tennis lesson around 5-6pm. smile

Air pressure now at 1017hPa.

Nice to see some rain and thunderstorms developing in South Australia! Hope some of that activity makes it into Victoria. smile

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#1329589 - 19/05/2015 10:24 Re: Vic - after 1040hPa high, arrival of a low system which may intensify 19-22 May 2014 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 12.0C (still stands as per my above post), currently around 16C, having peaked at 16.8C around an hour ago. Overcast, dark and gloomy. Quite breezy too, with my strongest wind gust hitting 27.7km/h. Air pressure at 1011hPa. smile

Nice rainband moving into Melbourne from the north/northwest on radar. Started spitting here not long ago. Hoping for a surprise thunderstorm as well. smile

Edit: the rain is really coming down now!! grin


Edited by aussiestormfreak (19/05/2015 10:26)

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#1329593 - 19/05/2015 10:46 Re: Vic - after 1040hPa high, arrival of a low system which may intensify 19-22 May 2014 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
And just like that, the heaviest rain was over within 10 minutes. Still spitting out there atm, and still a bit more rain to come. But it's a fairly narrow, fast-moving band. Only 1.1mm so far. frown

Currently 14.0C.

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