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#1329466 - 17/05/2015 22:00 SA - trough/front, rain, storms - 18th-21st May 2015
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17593
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Will need a thread for this system. smile

Might cover it in more detail tomorrow morning, but looking promising for a storm or two tomorrow arvo/evening with the pre-frontal trough before the showers into the night.
I'm not sure about how excited GFS and ACCESS are with this.... EC much much more conservative... They reckon maybe only 5mm by morning.
Fine Tuesday till the front moves in later with more showers. Maybe another 10-15mm, incl. further showers with the cold pool on Wednesday.

If GFS and ACCESS come off, well that will be great, with maybe 30-50mm expected, but at this stage I'm holding my enthusiasm.... see what the morning's model runs bring....

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#1329484 - 18/05/2015 08:53 Re: SA - trough/front, rain, storms - 18th-21st May 2015 [Re: teckert]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14966
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Yer been a steady downgrade in rain totals but more so, instability and lift ahead of the system whilst increasing upper level moisture...so thunderstorm chances drop off a fair bit from what they were. Still likely some isolated thunderstorms, chiefly towards the back edge of the rainband but not so much thunderstorms turning into rain anymore...nevertheless the rain will be nice.

Tuesday is a mostly fine day, blustery at times in the westerly and probably hazy before some showers on wed as the trough dissolves but stalls over us.

GFS backed off but ACCESS-R going big on falls, especially N suburbs tonight.

I'll go 7-12mm rainband in general, less out west and inland though <5mm.

Another 5-10mm from showers in colder air after.

TS cool

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#1329492 - 18/05/2015 10:48 Re: SA - trough/front, rain, storms - 18th-21st May 2015 [Re: teckert]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1660
Loc: Bridgewater
OCF forcasting 15mm for today

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#1329497 - 18/05/2015 13:32 Re: SA - trough/front, rain, storms - 18th-21st May 2015 [Re: teckert]
Bergasms Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2010
Posts: 364
Loc: South Plympton, Adelaide, Aus
Can report the ants out the front of my place are predicting a good fall, even saw some mole crickets moving about on the surface. So far local insects are 1/1 for predicting good rainfall this year.
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#1329503 - 18/05/2015 15:47 Re: SA - trough/front, rain, storms - 18th-21st May 2015 [Re: teckert]
Olaf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 1851
Loc: Noarlunga, SA
Err our only chance of a few bolts will be when the instability moves over us between 1-4am tomorrow, but I would say a slim chance at best and it will be embedded in rain...

Latest GFS going for a good soaking overnight with a solid rain band in the early hours, 5-15mm higher falls a chance in the Ranges and just East of, but looks like everyone will get a soak across suburbs...
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#1329516 - 18/05/2015 18:20 Re: SA - trough/front, rain, storms - 18th-21st May 2015 [Re: teckert]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17593
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
just keep an eye on the influence of the upper low/colder air coming up tomorrow night into wednesday.
I think it will have more influence than what models were suggesting, and its starting to show now.. esp. Access-R & CMC.

Will prob depend on exactly where the coldest air goes...

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#1329531 - 18/05/2015 20:48 Re: SA - trough/front, rain, storms - 18th-21st May 2015 [Re: teckert]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
This [initial rain] looks like fun grin smile !

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#1329538 - 18/05/2015 21:18 Re: SA - trough/front, rain, storms - 18th-21st May 2015 [Re: teckert]
Olaf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 1851
Loc: Noarlunga, SA
Booom! Thunder
_________________________
�I�d keep playing. I don�t think the heavy stuff�s gonna come down for quite awhile.� Bill Murray

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#1329541 - 18/05/2015 21:24 Re: SA - trough/front, rain, storms - 18th-21st May 2015 [Re: teckert]
Weathermaniac Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/10/2005
Posts: 842
Loc: Whyalla, SA
Thunder and lightning over Whyalla I see from my Facebook feed. Ofcourse it will happen when I'm here in Melbourne. Only 1.4mm at home so far.
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RAINFALL YTD 55.8mm
March so far 25.0mm

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#1329548 - 18/05/2015 22:00 Re: SA - trough/front, rain, storms - 18th-21st May 2015 [Re: teckert]
Ryan Hothersall Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2009
Posts: 795
Loc: Gulfview Heights, South Austra...
Raining on and off for the last couple of hours at home now. 3.4 mm so far.
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Current Gulfview Heights weather
http://ryanhothersall.net/gulfview-heights-weather/

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#1329550 - 18/05/2015 22:47 Re: SA - trough/front, rain, storms - 18th-21st May 2015 [Re: teckert]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17593
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Line coming down from Cleve way looks rather promising in regards to storm activity... WOuld be nice to get something here before its time to get some shut-eye...

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#1329551 - 18/05/2015 23:11 Re: SA - trough/front, rain, storms - 18th-21st May 2015 [Re: teckert]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14966
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Belting down atm 14.8mm to 10:30pm.

Indeed back edge rather lightning active, moves over us in the wee hours so expecting one or two mid level thunderstorms across gulf/metro area after about 2am onwards.

TS cool

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#1329553 - 18/05/2015 23:53 Re: SA - trough/front, rain, storms - 18th-21st May 2015 [Re: teckert]
Skysthelimit Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2008
Posts: 1131
Loc: Gladstone Sth Aust
A few rumbles and flashes here. I went out with my camera but it turned to light rain. Might be worth staying up for later but Ill probably hit the pillow shortly.

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#1329554 - 19/05/2015 00:05 Re: SA - trough/front, rain, storms - 18th-21st May 2015 [Re: teckert]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17593
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Nasty line (the one that developed near Cleve) just about to move over the gulf now and heading for the city...

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#1329555 - 19/05/2015 00:22 Re: SA - trough/front, rain, storms - 18th-21st May 2015 [Re: teckert]
Happy Birthday Chris #3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2009
Posts: 1891
Loc: Semaphore SA
Hadn't been watching the radar but just heard first rumble which caught my attention poke
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GFS Stormcast by BSCH




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#1329556 - 19/05/2015 00:28 Re: SA - trough/front, rain, storms - 18th-21st May 2015 [Re: teckert]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 729
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Upper Yorke Peninsular somewhat peppered by bolts - appears to be heading this way from the North West. Guess I should run up a time lapse (-:

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#1329557 - 19/05/2015 00:30 Re: SA - trough/front, rain, storms - 18th-21st May 2015 [Re: teckert]
buggerthatwasclose Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/11/2003
Posts: 1189
Loc: HILLBANK, S.A. 80m.asl- great ...
Got the camera set up firing away. It's taking it's time but hope fully it keeps coming and not too rained in..

John
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Psst! Wanna buy one of my Prints!! http://www.brightenupyourwalls.com/montages
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#1329559 - 19/05/2015 00:45 Re: SA - trough/front, rain, storms - 18th-21st May 2015 [Re: teckert]
Weather Guru Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2008
Posts: 1654
Loc: Munno Para , Northern Suburb o...
Many cc flashes in the west from here and can hear booming thunder in the distance.
5.5 mm so far (pre storm activity) smile
Heres to a really heavy dumpuge.
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Adelaide forcefield monitor smile

Jan 10.2 mm
Feb 3.9 mm
Mar 6.3 mm
Apr 14.8
May 20.7
June
July
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2018 55.9 mm
2017 487.2 mm
2016 571
2015 369.5
2014 460.5
2013 504
2012 417
2011 598.5
2010 553

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#1329560 - 19/05/2015 01:05 Re: SA - trough/front, rain, storms - 18th-21st May 2015 [Re: teckert]
buggerthatwasclose Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/11/2003
Posts: 1189
Loc: HILLBANK, S.A. 80m.asl- great ...
You could never tell there was any thing heading this way, it's gone completely Dead. There's been a large plume of thick white smoke (steam?) pouring up from some where on the LeFevre Peninsula for the good part of an hour. had a look through the binocs but no flames to be seen. Will hang on in there for a while longer...

John
_________________________
Psst! Wanna buy one of my Prints!! http://www.brightenupyourwalls.com/montages
Stunning B&W Storm Shots from the USA http://mitchdobrowner.com/

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#1329561 - 19/05/2015 01:28 Re: SA - trough/front, rain, storms - 18th-21st May 2015 [Re: teckert]
buggerthatwasclose Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/11/2003
Posts: 1189
Loc: HILLBANK, S.A. 80m.asl- great ...
I can tell you that, it's here... Still plenty of Lightning though streaming in from the Eyre Peninsula. Got three nights off work so I might stay up for a while.

Pouring down by the way:)

John.
_________________________
Psst! Wanna buy one of my Prints!! http://www.brightenupyourwalls.com/montages
Stunning B&W Storm Shots from the USA http://mitchdobrowner.com/

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