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#1329742 - 20/05/2015 21:18 NSW Rain and Wind with ECL- 21st to 23rd May, 2015
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
Hey everyone, looks like the anticipated ECL is definitely "on" now with some moderate rain possible and maybe local heavy falls, not to mention strong southerly winds.

Tomorrow looks to be the lead-up to it with winds getting stronger and for this area we expect rain to arrive late tomorrow. Then Friday will be windy with a fair bit of rain possible on the coast, before it moves well away from the coast, getting replaced by a strong high which may allow showers to continue for Saturday. The low should be very short lived which is a good thing

Crikey sums it up pretty well too!!

Originally Posted By: crikey
ACCESS has the ECL returning to the forecast for friday the 22nd off the NSW coast. Thankfully for you guys it is only close to the coast for 24 hrs
WATL giving 25-50mm from southern coastal NSW and up to the mid coast including SYDNEY
ACCESS has the low initiating off the mid NSW coast from 1am friday and has moved off shore by late friday night.
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp
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#1329790 - 21/05/2015 16:12 Re: NSW Rain and Wind with ECL- 21st to 23rd May, 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6407
Loc: Dural
Let's see what this afternoon's forecast brings mate.
There'll be rain in places so at least something to talk about.

Homer

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#1329791 - 21/05/2015 16:13 Re: NSW Rain and Wind with ECL- 21st to 23rd May, 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10186
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Look at the spinning cloud mass in Western NSW, pretty sure that spinning centre will pass to the coast and become that ECL type beastie.

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#1329793 - 21/05/2015 16:43 Re: NSW Rain and Wind with ECL- 21st to 23rd May, 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Severe Weather Warning issued. It's definitely on, but going by the forecast, hopefully short lived:


"Severe Weather Warning

for damaging winds and heavy rainfall

for people in the Metropolitan, Hunter and Illawarra forecast districts
Issued at 4:04 pm EST on Thursday 21 May 2015.

DAMAGING WINDS FOR CENTRAL PART OF COAST.

Weather Situation
A complex low pressure system is expected to deepen over the western Tasman Sea tonight and Friday. A trough extending from the low to near the NSW south coast is expected to intensify and move to the north Friday, with gale-force southerly winds expected to develop along the coastal fringe between Ulladulla and Seal Rocks Friday morning. Thunderstorms and localised heavy rain are also possible, particularly in the Illawarra where steeper topography may be an assistance.

DAMAGING WINDS averaging 55 to 65 km/h with gusts of 90 km/h are forecast for the coastal fringe of the Illawarra, Metropolitan and Hunter (including the Central Coast) forecast districts during Friday.

Dangerous surf conditions will also develop during Friday, hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.

Thunderstorms and heavy rain which may lead to FLASH FLOODING are possible for the Illawarra forecast district..."


Edited by Steve777 (21/05/2015 16:44)
Edit Reason: Tidy up

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#1329800 - 21/05/2015 18:03 Re: NSW Rain and Wind with ECL- 21st to 23rd May, 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Muggy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/02/2014
Posts: 116
Loc: Gosford, Central Coast, NSW
Looks like a bit of heavy rain, a few thunderstorms, and some strong wind gusts with this event.

I'm feeling relieved it's fairly short lived and a bit less extreme compared to the models of a week ago so can just sit back and hopefully observe it without any stress this time!

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#1329801 - 21/05/2015 18:04 Re: NSW Rain and Wind with ECL- 21st to 23rd May, 2015 [Re: Homer]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
Originally Posted By: Homer
Let's see what this afternoon's forecast brings mate.
There'll be rain in places so at least something to talk about.

Homer


Cheers Homer. Yeah, well it looks like this afternoon's forecast is for the bulk of the rain to be in my area this time around, rather than the Hunter and the Central Coast.

School athletics carnival is on tomorrow so that means many of my friends take the day off. I usually go but I'm going to stay home to keep an eye on this ECL. Hopefully the rain holds off until like mid-morning tomorrow, otherwise it'll be school as normal and I will have to go. Fingers crossed.
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#1329808 - 21/05/2015 19:21 Re: NSW Rain and Wind with ECL- 21st to 23rd May, 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Thanks for starting the thread 'wr'. I have made a note to myself to always check the upper layers as well. AS DAVE has pointed out . THere is a low circulating inland NSW. ACCESS says that is a mid layer (500hpa)low and can be described as a complex low because there is actually 2 eddies. The inland circulation curently predominant
ACCESS gradient near surface winds ( 1km ) is showing a surface low under that mid layer circulation but also has anumber of eddies in this complex with a couple offshore
This makes the impact a little unexpected and certainly more interesting. The ECL mid and surface does not consolidate/organise and strengthen until way off shore sparing NSW of the extreme stuff
But some nice action inland on the eastern flank of that inland eddy currently




Link to 1km wind patern
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

Actually you can see a circulation of rain bands commencing off shore of mid coast currently
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR712.loop.shtml#skip


Edited by crikey (21/05/2015 19:25)
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#1329814 - 21/05/2015 20:11 Re: NSW Rain and Wind with ECL- 21st to 23rd May, 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
The first volleys of the system are being fired now. The atmosphere is scolding the ocean for being too warm, and dropping its guts over the southern burbs. I like the Severe Weather Warning, which gives a nod to the topographic enhancement that can really boost totals in these events.

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#1329815 - 21/05/2015 20:12 Re: NSW Rain and Wind with ECL- 21st to 23rd May, 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
Originally Posted By: crikey
I have made a note to myself to always check the upper layers as well


Thanks crikey, I will keep that in mind when I analyse events like this, as I don't usually do so.

Saw some awesome storm clouds out to sea this afternoon. Looked amazingly crisp and nice:

Thought I might as well post it here since it's relevant to the ECL.

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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1329817 - 21/05/2015 20:19 Re: NSW Rain and Wind with ECL- 21st to 23rd May, 2015 [Re: HumphreyBear]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
Originally Posted By: HumphreyBear
The first volleys of the system are being fired now. The atmosphere is scolding the ocean for being too warm, and dropping its guts over the southern burbs. I like the Severe Weather Warning, which gives a nod to the topographic enhancement that can really boost totals in these events.



Yes, indeed. I can see intermittent lightning to the NNE from those storms around "The Shire".
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1329820 - 21/05/2015 20:40 Re: NSW Rain and Wind with ECL- 21st to 23rd May, 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Saw some distant lightning to the East on my walk home from the pub. Too far away to hear any thunder.

Nice picture WR, great reflections on a clam sea. Maybe the calm before the storm. It was warm, sunny and fairly clear here until cloud rolled in from the South in the early afternoon.

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#1329822 - 21/05/2015 20:47 Re: NSW Rain and Wind with ECL- 21st to 23rd May, 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
Thanks Stevie, it was actually quite windy in general when I took the photo, but I was lucky enough to find that bay which was protected from the southerly. If you look closely it gets choppier further out. smile

"Calm before the storm" is actually a good way to sum it up. That would've made a good caption for the photo.
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1329824 - 21/05/2015 21:29 Re: NSW Rain and Wind with ECL- 21st to 23rd May, 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2842
Bit of stormy rain here. Air cool. Some lightning out to sea. Looks intense.
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#1329825 - 21/05/2015 21:41 Re: NSW Rain and Wind with ECL- 21st to 23rd May, 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2842
ice shot Wav R. Looks like a mountain lake shot.

Rain stopped. Storm out to sea moving NE I think
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#1329826 - 21/05/2015 21:52 Re: NSW Rain and Wind with ECL- 21st to 23rd May, 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5506
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Got out of my sick bed to take this one!!
165 by Eddy Groot, on Flickr
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Rainfall
2018 - 1145.9mm
2019 MTD - 302.7mm
2019 YTD - 631.8mm

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#1329827 - 21/05/2015 21:54 Re: NSW Rain and Wind with ECL- 21st to 23rd May, 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
Thanks Knot, it does aye haha.

Anyway remote says 15C which is consistent with Al Pk and B Pt. Looks like a band of showers is moving towards us from the south.

Wow when was that taken Eddy?
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1329828 - 21/05/2015 22:01 Re: NSW Rain and Wind with ECL- 21st to 23rd May, 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5506
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider


Wow when was that taken Eddy?


Tonight.
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Rainfall
2018 - 1145.9mm
2019 MTD - 302.7mm
2019 YTD - 631.8mm

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#1329829 - 21/05/2015 22:03 Re: NSW Rain and Wind with ECL- 21st to 23rd May, 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2842
Incredible pic Eddy. Showed my partner and like WR, she said 'WOW!!!'

Gee the air feels nippy outside. Interesting to see how cold it was in places like Cobar today compared to coast.
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#1329830 - 21/05/2015 22:46 Re: NSW Rain and Wind with ECL- 21st to 23rd May, 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6407
Loc: Dural
Radar for Sydney showed lots of potential earlier. I saw lots of lightning from Castle Hill when I was dropping Bart off to football training.
It certainly has backed off a bit since then, into almost a clearing pattern.

Homer

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#1329835 - 22/05/2015 00:53 Re: NSW Rain and Wind with ECL- 21st to 23rd May, 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
SirLag Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 22/01/2012
Posts: 4
Nice pic Eddy.

So i live in Salamander Bay and we got absolutely hammered.

Heavier rain than the ECL the other week and heaps of flooding round the house.

Big bolts of close lightning as well.

The radar was weird...seemed to all intensify just over us and lasted. We had 2 main bouts that lasted around an hour each

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