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#1329950 - 23/05/2015 18:45 VIC - Cold Fronts/Lows/Troughs - Wind & Showers, Potential Rain Event, Possible Storms, Cold Outbreak, Hail, & Alpine Snow - May 23rd 2015 onwards
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
G'day and bula everyone! smile

Looks like several different weather systems are about to join forces and combine for the final event for Autumn 2015, so here we go! wink

A low pressure trough and northwest cloudband are currently developing on satellite over WA into SA. According to ACCESS and the synoptic charts, this system will remain out west for the next few days, allowing a high to be in control of the weather over Eastern Australia.

Meanwhile, over the Southern Ocean, an unstable cold pool from Antarctica is on the move. A series of cold fronts and low pressure systems will form within this air mass and brush by just to our south, before a larger, stronger cold front and low charge north to strike Victoria by the latter part of next week. The trough and northwest cloudband will link into the storm, providing an injection of moisture from the Indian Ocean. The high will retreat off the East Coast into the Pacific Ocean, allowing a northerly airflow to build across the State ahead of a colder southwesterly airstream, maintained by a large high pressure area in the Great Australian Bight.

The next few days will see morning fog and frost, and tomorrow should be mostly sunny. Commencing tomorrow, cloud will start increasing with winds tending northerly. Showers (possible thunderstorms?) developing over the Northwest on Monday and about the Southwest on Tuesday, before becoming more State-wide on Wednesday, followed by rain on Thursday into Friday. Colder showery weather with alpine snow from Friday onwards.

Enjoy the weekend and the last week of autumn guys! smile

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#1330007 - 24/05/2015 17:47 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts/Lows/Troughs - Wind & Showers, Potential Rain Event, Possible Storms, Cold Outbreak, Hail, & Alpine Snow - May 23rd 2015 onwards [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Fine calm day here, near frosty start, 14C max, BUT it fell to 9C (with sunshine, no breeze) from 3:15 pm on!. Baro on 1031 hPa here.

It had better cloud over thickly tonight, or else an early (for this time of year)severe frost out this way.

Maunder Minimum.


Edited by Petros (24/05/2015 17:49)

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#1330008 - 24/05/2015 18:12 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts/Lows/Troughs - Wind & Showers, Potential Rain Event, Possible Storms, Cold Outbreak, Hail, & Alpine Snow - May 23rd 2015 onwards [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Just looking at the Aus SatIR loop. What a shame that the NW cloudband steaming moisture down over Vic now is going to be "wasted" as the present high moving off to the Tasman keeps any potential of SW'ward cold air incursion suppressed.

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#1330009 - 24/05/2015 18:14 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts/Lows/Troughs - Wind & Showers, Potential Rain Event, Possible Storms, Cold Outbreak, Hail, & Alpine Snow - May 23rd 2015 onwards [Re: Petros]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1323
Loc: toowoomba
Originally Posted By: Petros
Fine calm day here, near frosty start, 14C max, BUT it fell to 9C (with sunshine, no breeze) from 3:15 pm on!. Baro on 1031 hPa here.

It had better cloud over thickly tonight, or else an early (for this time of year)severe frost out this way.

Maunder Minimum.

Or Dalton minimum

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#1330016 - 24/05/2015 20:15 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts/Lows/Troughs - Wind & Showers, Potential Rain Event, Possible Storms, Cold Outbreak, Hail, & Alpine Snow - May 23rd 2015 onwards [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
After last night's freezing low of 3.1C with fog and patchy frost, we scored a top of 17.7C this arvo. Nice to have a bit of sunshine despite the high cloud from the northwest. smile

Another chilly night ahead, currently around 8C.

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#1330044 - 25/05/2015 09:39 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts/Lows/Troughs - Wind & Showers, Potential Rain Event, Possible Storms, Cold Outbreak, Hail, & Alpine Snow - May 23rd 2015 onwards [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 8.2C, currently around 12C and gloomy with mid-level and high-level cloud. poke

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#1330050 - 25/05/2015 13:05 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts/Lows/Troughs - Wind & Showers, Potential Rain Event, Possible Storms, Cold Outbreak, Hail, & Alpine Snow - May 23rd 2015 onwards [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
What a stunning day! A bit hazy, but most of the cloud is retreating, leaving us with a mild, mostly sunny afternoon, although the breeze is a tad cool. smile

At the last check it was around 19C. Could easily top 20C or more today! wink

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#1330059 - 25/05/2015 14:35 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts/Lows/Troughs - Wind & Showers, Potential Rain Event, Possible Storms, Cold Outbreak, Hail, & Alpine Snow - May 23rd 2015 onwards [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Just returned home from lunch at Narre Warren, and it peaked at 21.2C here. Still around 18C atm. smile

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#1330080 - 25/05/2015 18:32 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts/Lows/Troughs - Wind & Showers, Potential Rain Event, Possible Storms, Cold Outbreak, Hail, & Alpine Snow - May 23rd 2015 onwards [Re: petethemoskeet]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: petethemoskeet
Originally Posted By: Petros
Fine calm day here, near frosty start, 14C max, BUT it fell to 9C (with sunshine, no breeze) from 3:15 pm on!. Baro on 1031 hPa here.

It had better cloud over thickly tonight, or else an early (for this time of year)severe frost out this way.

Maunder Minimum.

Or Dalton minimum


Well, if Yellowstone erupts, or we get hit by a comet, then it would become a "Daltonised Maunder"?

If indeed my present perception that we are heading into a cooling period is correct........!!

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#1330081 - 25/05/2015 18:34 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts/Lows/Troughs - Wind & Showers, Potential Rain Event, Possible Storms, Cold Outbreak, Hail, & Alpine Snow - May 23rd 2015 onwards [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Lightly veiled sky today provided 14.8C for me here under calm conditions today, yesterday, under brighter sunshine (and calm), ...only 14.0 C.

I was expecting a frost this morning, but no ice on the car.

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#1330109 - 26/05/2015 10:14 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts/Lows/Troughs - Wind & Showers, Potential Rain Event, Possible Storms, Cold Outbreak, Hail, & Alpine Snow - May 23rd 2015 onwards [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 7.4C, currently around 13C with sunshine, but also with high cloud returning from the northwest. smile

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#1330129 - 26/05/2015 13:55 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts/Lows/Troughs - Wind & Showers, Potential Rain Event, Possible Storms, Cold Outbreak, Hail, & Alpine Snow - May 23rd 2015 onwards [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Peaked at 21.2C about an hour ago, on par with yesterday's high! smile

Getting overcast and cooler now, currently 16.7C. smile

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#1330131 - 26/05/2015 14:12 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts/Lows/Troughs - Wind & Showers, Potential Rain Event, Possible Storms, Cold Outbreak, Hail, & Alpine Snow - May 23rd 2015 onwards [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2652
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
yes Aussie very cold of 11c due to upper clouds block sun and cold air mass down to surface as been raining for 10min due high moist in uppers and now blue skies in west bring sunshine and rise temperature.

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#1330141 - 26/05/2015 16:01 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts/Lows/Troughs - Wind & Showers, Potential Rain Event, Possible Storms, Cold Outbreak, Hail, & Alpine Snow - May 23rd 2015 onwards [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Yes Chasers Addict I see the rain on radar, but no rain here in Melbourne, it's all north of the Great Dividing Range. poke

Otherwise a horrible overcast afternoon, getting colder and darker. Currently around 14C. poke

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#1330158 - 26/05/2015 19:28 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts/Lows/Troughs - Wind & Showers, Potential Rain Event, Possible Storms, Cold Outbreak, Hail, & Alpine Snow - May 23rd 2015 onwards [Re: aussiestormfreak]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1310
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
hey guys,looking like an interesting period coming up with the first little front on friday & then another stronger front sun/mon smile
Caught up with jane on channel 7 weather tonight and she saying snow down to 600mtr on monday morning??lol im personally not quiet seeing that on the charts?

We havent quiet had the frosts up here like the valley has!We dipped out around the 3c mark the last couple of mornings,to much air movement up here to get frost(most of the time).

Currently 9c

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#1330160 - 26/05/2015 19:51 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts/Lows/Troughs - Wind & Showers, Potential Rain Event, Possible Storms, Cold Outbreak, Hail, & Alpine Snow - May 23rd 2015 onwards [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Jeez it was cold here for a May day this morning, car windows re-froze after an initial hosing.

Sunny periods midday but mostly under high light cloud, didn't make 15C with light NW'ly making it cold out during the arvo. 1029 hPa atm.

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#1330162 - 26/05/2015 20:07 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts/Lows/Troughs - Wind & Showers, Potential Rain Event, Possible Storms, Cold Outbreak, Hail, & Alpine Snow - May 23rd 2015 onwards [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: doogasnow
....
Caught up with jane on channel 7 weather tonight and she saying snow down to 600mtr on monday morning??lol im personally not quiet seeing that on the charts?


She would have noticed this GFS potential blue "cold air line" over SE Vic early Monday?:

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#1330171 - 27/05/2015 01:44 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts/Lows/Troughs - Wind & Showers, Potential Rain Event, Possible Storms, Cold Outbreak, Hail, & Alpine Snow - May 23rd 2015 onwards [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Would be a great start to winter if low-level snow does actually happy next Monday (hope it comes before I depart Melbourne for Sydney next week). But more important that we get good heavy rainfall! smile

A relatively mild night tonight, currently around 12C. Hoping those showers out west can make it here and drop a few millimetres. smile

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#1330182 - 27/05/2015 08:30 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts/Lows/Troughs - Wind & Showers, Potential Rain Event, Possible Storms, Cold Outbreak, Hail, & Alpine Snow - May 23rd 2015 onwards [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Alex_96L Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/02/2015
Posts: 220
Loc: Mulgrave (SE Suburbs), Melbour...
Just had my Davis Vantage Vue arrive this morning. Gonna have fun setting this up smile

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#1330193 - 27/05/2015 10:30 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts/Lows/Troughs - Wind & Showers, Potential Rain Event, Possible Storms, Cold Outbreak, Hail, & Alpine Snow - May 23rd 2015 onwards [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 12.0C, currently around 16C. Breezy and mostly cloudy. Can't confirm if we had rain this morning. smile

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