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#1331320 - 09/06/2015 19:08 Vic- chances of a SM cut-off low forming in the bight influencing Vic 15-17-6/15
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
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Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Posted this potential event only because of (if it comes to existence) its rarity.

A cut-off low to form well S of WA that drifts WNW'ward enough to influence Vic (normally these sag below/W of Tassie).

Probably wont come off, but frustrated by the new/recent lateness of CMC, ACCG models reports on WZ, I've put it forward because EC does show some semblance of agreeance in terms of SM moisture streaming up NE'wards into Vic at same period:


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#1331370 - 10/06/2015 17:43 Re: Vic- chances of a SM cut-off low forming in the bight influencing Vic 15-17-6/15 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
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G'day Petros! smile

Be interesting to see what will unfold, the synoptics paint a bit of a different picture, but like the models it has something coming! Not necessarily a 'cut-off' low from the south of WA, but more of a series of troughs from Queensland dipping down from the north. Could spell some good soaking rain and maybe storms for Victoria. smile

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#1331371 - 10/06/2015 18:03 Re: Vic- chances of a SM cut-off low forming in the bight influencing Vic 15-17-6/15 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
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Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very interesting looks like early spring pattern as High pressure going sit right deep in south ocean

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#1331385 - 10/06/2015 20:26 Re: Vic- chances of a SM cut-off low forming in the bight influencing Vic 15-17-6/15 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
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Yes,interesting times this time next week!:) Nice thread petros!
Could go either way at this early stage?? Lets hope it turns into a nice snowy blast!

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#1331474 - 11/06/2015 18:08 Re: Vic- chances of a SM cut-off low forming in the bight influencing Vic 15-17-6/15 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
2 days later (and getting closer to whatever the weather will be early next week), GFS doesn't seem to have changed its mind much:



My initial post should have referred to "COLD SM air from SW" not moisture from SW (moisture to charge this cut-off will come from the Coral Sea).

Very interesting, the arrival of a low, cold pushing up, and moisture streaming in from Qld..... if the timing is right we in Vic could get some welcome rain! smile

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#1331476 - 11/06/2015 18:20 Re: Vic- chances of a SM cut-off low forming in the bight influencing Vic 15-17-6/15 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
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Yes, ACCESS and GFS still want this event to come off, with the synoptic charts also in-line! smile

Still uncertain as to what weather system(s) will impact Victoria, but I'd be keeping an eye on that cloudmass on the satellite over Outback Queensland, South Australia and the Northern Territory for starters. smile

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#1331549 - 12/06/2015 19:33 Re: Vic- chances of a SM cut-off low forming in the bight influencing Vic 15-17-6/15 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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By no means a model consensus yet, but GFS hasn't changed on the basic synoptics for the set up for next week.

..... but HAS ramped up ECL chances and the potential rain totals into Gippsland.

Maffra (and the McAllister catchment) DO NOT need these rains (if they do evolve) at this time of the year! frown


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#1331607 - 13/06/2015 18:17 Re: Vic- chances of a SM cut-off low forming in the bight influencing Vic 15-17-6/15 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
24 hrs later GFS remains on track for rain in Vic, and substantial rain in SE Vic next week:

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#1331662 - 14/06/2015 18:07 Re: Vic- chances of a SM cut-off low forming in the bight influencing Vic 15-17-6/15 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Well the potential cut-off low did eventuate, albeit a little higher up than GFS guessed back at the start of the thread.

Its now sitting between Kalgoorlie and the SA border:



...the impact of this, given the NE'ward trajectory could result in a large scale low over NSW (much akin to a summer "Easterly Dip-born synoptic), this low might intensify if the timing of SM cold air injected into the soup hits the sweet spot.

Hitting the "sweet spot" means problematic rain potential over Vic's S central and eastern southern regions. Sodden top soil at this time of the year is not a farmers favourite, ... and Vic is fine water-storage-wise.

[edit] - check out the moisture pluming down into Vic from the ENE ahead of "whatever happens"!


Edited by Petros (14/06/2015 18:17)

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#1331670 - 14/06/2015 19:15 Re: Vic- chances of a SM cut-off low forming in the bight influencing Vic 15-17-6/15 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
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Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks good far NW of Victoria/NSW clouds thickening as in-feed of N/E moist trough push Westward for NSW and SE for Victoria.

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#1331674 - 14/06/2015 20:00 Re: Vic- chances of a SM cut-off low forming in the bight influencing Vic 15-17-6/15 [Re: chasers addict]
chasers addict Offline
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Originally Posted By: chasers addict
Looks good far NW of Victoria/NSW clouds thickening as in-feed of N/E moist trough push Westward for NSW and SE for Victoria.
Sorry i mean eastward not Westward.

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#1331713 - 15/06/2015 10:20 Re: Vic- chances of a SM cut-off low forming in the bight influencing Vic 15-17-6/15 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
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Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 7.5C, currently around 14C with extensive high cloud. Hope we get some rain from tonight onwards, getting tired of dry weather. smile

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#1331720 - 15/06/2015 11:20 Re: Vic- chances of a SM cut-off low forming in the bight influencing Vic 15-17-6/15 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
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East Sale BOM this morning - 5 to 10mm for three consecutive days this week for Central Gipp, prob. more for East Gipp.

A fall of rain this week of 15 to 30mm would be OK, keep the grass going.

Any more and I agree with Petros, not needed really, however beggars can't be choosers and we'll get whatever the sky sends.

I've always said that moisture during winter sets us up for a good spring later in the year.

Family in Port Lincoln going off crook, to cold and wet !!

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#1331722 - 15/06/2015 11:33 Re: Vic- chances of a SM cut-off low forming in the bight influencing Vic 15-17-6/15 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
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And for other beginners (like me) here is an note from WZ Glossary re cut off lows -

"Cut-off low

A closed low which has become completely displaced (cut off) from the basic westerly current which flows across Australia's southern oceans, and moves independently of that current (not including Tropical cyclones). Cut-off lows may remain nearly stationary for days, or on occasion may move westward opposite to the prevailing flow aloft (i.e., retrogression). An East Coast Low is an example of a cut-off low. A cut-off low is often accompanied by a blocking high. "Cut-off low" and "closed low" often are used interchangeably to describe low pressure centres aloft. However, not all closed lows are completely removed from the influence of the basic westerlies. Therefore, the recommended usage of the terms is to reserve the use of "cut-off low" only to those closed lows which are clearly detached completely from the westerlies. "

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#1331725 - 15/06/2015 12:24 Re: Vic- chances of a SM cut-off low forming in the bight influencing Vic 15-17-6/15 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
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Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks like not much rain out it, and uppers is wasting away if not wrong.

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#1331726 - 15/06/2015 12:27 Re: Vic- chances of a SM cut-off low forming in the bight influencing Vic 15-17-6/15 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
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Registered: 02/02/2011
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Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 7.5C, currently around 14C with extensive high cloud. Hope we get some rain from tonight onwards, getting tired of dry weather. smile

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#1331755 - 15/06/2015 17:51 Re: Vic- chances of a SM cut-off low forming in the bight influencing Vic 15-17-6/15 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
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Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Heard of a nice 15-20mm rainfall out in the Mallee, they would love that. BOM just now saying 5-10mm out our way, and as Samboz stated, just about right for us too (long as the next drop arrives every 10 days or so).

We should hear some rain on the roof tonight, and then Petros's attention will be on finding a shower-free gap in the weather during Wednesday ahead of a SW'ly cold change that will hopefully hit Maffra after 4pm.

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#1331757 - 15/06/2015 17:59 Re: Vic- chances of a SM cut-off low forming in the bight influencing Vic 15-17-6/15 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
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Registered: 02/02/2011
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Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Would love some of that sort of rain for Melbourne too! smile

Reached 17.9C today (currently around 12C), it was nice in the sun although it felt a bit humid. Come mid-afternoon the cloud increased and it got quite dark and cold. Looked unstable at times today, so wouldn't rule out a thunderstorm developing over the next 24-48 hours! wink

My observations for the first half of June 2015 are as follows (not including the missing data during my recent trip to Sydney):

Average temperature: 10.5C
Average maximum temperature: 16.0C
Average minimum temperature: 5.0C
Total rainfall: 15.8mm

Lowest minimum temperature: 2.8C (June 1st)
Highest maximum temperature: 20.4C (June 13th)
Lowest maximum temperature: 11.1C (June 2nd)
Highest minimum temperature: 7.5C (June 15th)
Highest daily rainfall: 12.6mm (June 1st)
Highest wind gust: 13.7km/h (June 1st)

Lowest wind chill reading: 1C (June 1st)

Factoring in the missing data, my rainfall total for the month so far would probably be around the 20-30mm range.

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#1331776 - 15/06/2015 20:32 Re: Vic- chances of a SM cut-off low forming in the bight influencing Vic 15-17-6/15 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
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Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah i think 5-10mm now at best out of this system?
looks like the cold air injection that comes in later wednesday
sucks the moisture out of the system.

But then again u never know?
Pretty cold temps by the end of week!

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#1331788 - 16/06/2015 00:54 Re: Vic- chances of a SM cut-off low forming in the bight influencing Vic 15-17-6/15 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
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Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Nice to finally have some rain here, only 1mm so far but it's a start. Currently around 10C. smile

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