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#1331566 - 12/06/2015 23:52 SA - tropical infeed/broad low pressure/upper trough - 13th-18th June 2015
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17593
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Better get this one started I suppose.
An rather unusual and interesting system for June. Bit of a tropical infeed of moisture along a mid-level trough through the centre of the country will bring showers and storms to many parts of the state over the next few days. A broad low pressure trough should then move across by Monday, possibly increasing our chances of more showers/storms right through into Wednesday.
While all models have had this in place for several days, they have been all over the shop in regards to where the best falls will be, and tbh, I'm not going to suggest any figures for anyone as we could get disappointed.

The system has already started to affect the far north of the state, with a few bolts evident on the tracker nearer the NT border, and showers now appearing on the Woomera radar heading south.
Going by EC & GFS models, I would expect a fair band of rain/showers to form during tomorrow across a central part of the pastoral areas, and pushing into Eyre Peninsula. After that it's anyone's guess really!

A chance we might be lucky to see some storms, I think more likely Mon-Tues at this stage, but again models all over the place with instability and location...

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#1331568 - 13/06/2015 00:17 Re: SA - tropical infeed/broad low pressure/upper trough - 13th-18th June 2015 [Re: teckert]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14966
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Yer indeed. Complex sort of feature, especially for this time of the year. Cold air aloft and slow moving trough just sort of ample around a bit with a decent infeed, especially good for NW Pastoral and EP for the first part of it, should see mid-level showers and isol thunderstorms translate into areas of rain with still the odd isolated thunderstorm, especially further north.

But yer come monday/tues the whole area is a bit wishy washy, broadly unstable with minimal focus, will rely on outflow boundaries and any terrain influences to get things going mostly. Good lapse rates though through the mids, so needs to be watched. Get under some cells and I'd expect them to be fairly heavy. Hail a definite threat in stronger cells.

TS cool

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#1331578 - 13/06/2015 09:49 Re: SA - tropical infeed/broad low pressure/upper trough - 13th-18th June 2015 [Re: teckert]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17593
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Models going okay atm with today's scenario. Band extending down into EP already. Will gradually extend SE over YP, but cant the city getting anything till overnight really. Most models not overly encouraging for rainfall here in the city but latest EC does have it quite wet over us tomorrow night and into Monday, so hopefully that comes off.

Marree had 9mm to 9am this morning.

Aviation: PATCHY RAIN N OF YCEE/YWRO/YPTB, EXTENDING S TO BE N OF YPLC/YCBO/CAJE/YPTB BY 08Z.

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#1331620 - 13/06/2015 21:52 Re: SA - tropical infeed/broad low pressure/upper trough - 13th-18th June 2015 [Re: teckert]
Olaf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 1851
Loc: Noarlunga, SA
Models will be some guide but they will and are battling to cope with this set up in June, not surprising.
_________________________
�I�d keep playing. I don�t think the heavy stuff�s gonna come down for quite awhile.� Bill Murray

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#1331621 - 13/06/2015 22:04 Re: SA - tropical infeed/broad low pressure/upper trough - 13th-18th June 2015 [Re: teckert]
Olaf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 1851
Loc: Noarlunga, SA
7.0mm at Cleve Airport
7.6mm at Kadina
_________________________
�I�d keep playing. I don�t think the heavy stuff�s gonna come down for quite awhile.� Bill Murray

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#1331642 - 14/06/2015 11:04 Re: SA - tropical infeed/broad low pressure/upper trough - 13th-18th June 2015 [Re: teckert]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2083
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Doesnt look like this event is going to favour the SE at all only forecasted to get 5-10 mms of rain tomorrow and bugger all for rest of the week

more likely have to keep an eye on the follow ups in hopes it brings more rain before the drought sets in

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#1331650 - 14/06/2015 14:21 Re: SA - tropical infeed/broad low pressure/upper trough - 13th-18th June 2015 [Re: teckert]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
This rain (like right now) has a fairly tropical feel to it; coming straight down and [clouds] moving slightly, with some large drops. Very welcome though smile .

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#1331667 - 14/06/2015 19:01 Re: SA - tropical infeed/broad low pressure/upper trough - 13th-18th June 2015 [Re: teckert]
Olaf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 1851
Loc: Noarlunga, SA
Really struggling atm, might start to fill later on hopefully...
_________________________
�I�d keep playing. I don�t think the heavy stuff�s gonna come down for quite awhile.� Bill Murray

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#1331673 - 14/06/2015 19:59 Re: SA - tropical infeed/broad low pressure/upper trough - 13th-18th June 2015 [Re: teckert]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3928
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
**Bleeeech** ,what the hell, is this system a fish out
of water or what, just look at those paramaters....
pwats, tot's, Li's, DP's, the only thing lacking is temps.
if this was jan. or feb. this systen would be going totally
anal with an attitude worse than mine and this thread would
be hundreds of posts long. as things stand all i do is look
at the models and want to barf.
one could say the whole thing's fallen in a heap but to be
able to say that there has to be enuff to form a heap in
the first place.
olaf your enthusiasm in starting this thread almost sounded
like it was a chore. wink don't worry mate, it wont be
totally wasted, at least it gives me a platform to snort
and vent my disgust at this poor excuse for a system.
having said all that there was some pretty good cloud
structure around this morning.

TH
_________________________



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#1331677 - 14/06/2015 20:23 Re: SA - tropical infeed/broad low pressure/upper trough - 13th-18th June 2015 [Re: teckert]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17593
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
except it was me who started it.... poke and yer only started it cos no-else had lol... I am hoping the next 24hrs brings at least a bit to write about!
I see Kyancutta had a good fall today... and yes clouds have been rather interesting at times.

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#1331679 - 14/06/2015 20:44 Re: SA - tropical infeed/broad low pressure/upper trough - 13th-18th June 2015 [Re: teckert]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1660
Loc: Bridgewater
my prediction, sfa

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#1331681 - 14/06/2015 21:14 Re: SA - tropical infeed/broad low pressure/upper trough - 13th-18th June 2015 [Re: teckert]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 576
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
Im with you Eevo

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#1331684 - 14/06/2015 21:34 Re: SA - tropical infeed/broad low pressure/upper trough - 13th-18th June 2015 [Re: teckert]
Olaf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 1851
Loc: Noarlunga, SA
Yeah I never started it Thunda me ol'mate, just kept it going before it died a horrible death lol...

Having said that, things are looking up and those ranges are working wonderfully as usual with cloud now thickening rapidly heading towards us...


Edited by Olaf (14/06/2015 21:43)
_________________________
�I�d keep playing. I don�t think the heavy stuff�s gonna come down for quite awhile.� Bill Murray

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#1331685 - 14/06/2015 21:59 Re: SA - tropical infeed/broad low pressure/upper trough - 13th-18th June 2015 [Re: teckert]
Weather Guru Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2008
Posts: 1654
Loc: Munno Para , Northern Suburb o...
Big blob north east of me, it's just tried to rain with bigger drops here, could be something in it after all, Not that much but wet stuff to say the least and a measurement between 2- 7 mm would be a fair call.
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#1331686 - 14/06/2015 22:06 Re: SA - tropical infeed/broad low pressure/upper trough - 13th-18th June 2015 [Re: teckert]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17593
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
yer looks like Western Vic will end up doing the best rainfall wise, but I'm sure the farmers over there need it as much as we do.

Just keep an eye on what EC suggests though... could be some interesting precip on the back edge on Tues, and then could be reasonably showery on Wednesday as the upper trough pushes up from the south, with some colder air.

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#1331688 - 14/06/2015 23:12 Re: SA - tropical infeed/broad low pressure/upper trough - 13th-18th June 2015 [Re: teckert]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14966
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Yer as expected it is a system of slops, no focus whatsoever. Some areas will do well and others will barely get a drop. Seems such a waste for a sfc trough, tropical infeed and upper trough to get this. But that's how it is.

Should see a bit as Tim mentions more so in the moist onshores behind the sfc trough into the upper trough for the metro/hills area at least.

TS cool

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#1331692 - 15/06/2015 02:13 Re: SA - tropical infeed/broad low pressure/upper trough - 13th-18th June 2015 [Re: teckert]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 729
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Steady light rain here for a while now, pitter patter sound (-:

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#1331698 - 15/06/2015 07:50 Re: SA - tropical infeed/broad low pressure/upper trough - 13th-18th June 2015 [Re: teckert]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3928
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
jeeze i'm showing my age reading your name as olaf, omg, the
stuff of nightmares, sry 'bout that Tek.(and olaf).
i'll try and watch where i'm walking next time.
looks like we had an extended period of dribble overnight (and
that doesn't include me) amounting to a handfull of mm's, more
to the north and hills i would expect.

TH
_________________________



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#1331708 - 15/06/2015 09:41 Re: SA - tropical infeed/broad low pressure/upper trough - 13th-18th June 2015 [Re: teckert]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17593
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Looks like roves would've picked up a valuable 5-10mm smile

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#1331712 - 15/06/2015 10:14 Re: SA - tropical infeed/broad low pressure/upper trough - 13th-18th June 2015 [Re: teckert]
roves Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/02/2005
Posts: 1635
Loc: Paringa-Riverland
Yeah Tim got 7.5mm here so far hoping for another 5mm. smile
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