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#1331950 - 17/06/2015 16:50 VIC - Intense Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet & Windy - Squalls/Gales, Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - June 21st 2015 onwards...
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
G'day and bula everyone! smile

Thought it's time to start turning out our attention to the next storm system lined up for Winter 2015, so here we go! wink


According to the satellite images, a trough are developing over Southwest WA. ACCESS, GFS, and the synoptic charts have an intense cold front and deep low from Antarctica on the move in the Southern Ocean, swinging north and linking into the trough over the next couple of days. Winds will swing into a strengthening northerly airflow across Victoria by Saturday as a high retreats off Eastern Australia into the South Pacific Ocean, with the barometric pressure gradient tightening ahead of the impending storm and cold blast. The storm should burst across the State on Sunday/Monday, with another high directing a colder west/southwesterly airstream with further frontal activity into at least the early part of next week.

Following any left-over shower activity in the wake of the present weather system, it'll be mostly fine across the State on Friday and Saturday except for morning fog and frost. Forecast tops of 13C for Melbourne and 14C for Mildura on both of these days.

Morning fog and frost on Sunday, cloud increasing with patchy rain and/or showers and possible thunderstorms developing from the west and spreading eastwards across Victoria. Winds tending northerly and freshening/strengthening, possibly to gale-force. Forecast tops of 13C for both Melbourne and Mildura.

Mostly cloudy with potentially gale-force winds, rain, risk of thunderstorms, and alpine snowfalls on Monday. Forecast tops of 13C for Melbourne and 16C for Mildura.

Gusty with showers (mainly on and south of the Great Dividing Range) with alpine snowfalls in the days afterwards.

Have a great week guys! wink

Aussiestormfreak

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#1332189 - 20/06/2015 08:46 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet & Windy - Squalls/Gales, Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - June 21st 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2099
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
It's swinging into gear asf as per yr excellent summary above, today has rainfall in the mid/high teens round Perth.

Access- a sub 1000hPa low is formed below W.A. today and travels across the Bight impacting S/W Vic late afternoon/evening on Monday bringing scattered rain until Thursday.

WATL - showing rain entering S/W Vic. on Monday, covering most of W Vic Tuesday and the entire state Wednesday. Our little patch in Gippsland (Northern) forecast rainfall 1-5mm.

Thickness chart shows S/W W.A. with 528hPa area by Monday although Vic doesn't go that cold, later in the week Friday is getting closer.

Some snow falls also with the rain and colder temps, BOM says late Tuesday on ----> Friday. Not real cold sub 0C temps though.

Plenty of time for change yet, and if consistent a lot of these systems seem to come thru' later than forecasts this far out.

SUMMARY - More Winter weather smile

(First ewe (a maiden) lambed last night, pulled it to make sure, up and alert in minutes, mother happy, owner happy and Dorpers continue to show excellent form. Anyone want a couple of heavy in lamb ewes, got to many and need to thin flock out.)

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#1332205 - 20/06/2015 11:44 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet & Windy - Squalls/Gales, Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - June 21st 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Mmmm roast marinated lamb.....

We'd better enjoy this weekend sunshine, and for us in Gippy, and dry out the paddocks, because as stated above, it gets a bit snotty in Vic mid week.

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#1332211 - 20/06/2015 13:49 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet & Windy - Squalls/Gales, Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - June 21st 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2099
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Some rosemary, clove of garlic inserted in meat, salt and put in oven, remove round 80C internal temp..........hmmmm is right... grin

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#1332212 - 20/06/2015 13:52 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet & Windy - Squalls/Gales, Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - June 21st 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2099
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
We could probably run half a dozen on the gold course, they are trained to tippy toe on the putting greens...........

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#1332230 - 20/06/2015 18:05 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet & Windy - Squalls/Gales, Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - June 21st 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
... well I was a bit sheepish when I posted my score from todays outing at the water-puddled Royal Maffra Golf Course.

Colder day than yesterday, only 13.5C max, but felt milder in the sunny calm conditions.

Baro 1026 hPa, got a bit cloudy late arvo, but cleared to an impressive sunset below a bright crescent moon, itself ringed by 3 bright stars/planets.

It'll be a frosty start tomorrow!

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#1332255 - 21/06/2015 01:18 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet & Windy - Squalls/Gales, Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - June 21st 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Mmmm yummy lamb! grin

Haha anyways, yes a third consecutive nippy night ahead for my area, around 3C atm! Expecting fog and frost in the morning. eek

Looking forward to this coming week! ACCESS, GFS, and the synoptic charts still all have a decent winter storm on the cards, with a sharp pressure gradient ahead of an impending cold blast and westerly surge, hence a blustery, potentially gale-force northerly airflow is likely as the cold front charges into Victoria. Hoping for some good soaking winter rainfall and alpine snows as well! wink

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#1332263 - 21/06/2015 09:33 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet & Windy - Squalls/Gales, Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - June 21st 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 3.0C, currently around 8C and sunny, not a cloud in the sky! Had frost, but can't confirm if we had fog. smile

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#1332276 - 21/06/2015 12:53 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet & Windy - Squalls/Gales, Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - June 21st 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2652
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Enjoy cold mornings and sunshine only 14.6c at 12.50pm

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#1332289 - 21/06/2015 17:41 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet & Windy - Squalls/Gales, Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - June 21st 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached 15.8C today, it was nice to have mostly sunny skies, even though the northerly wind felt cold. smile

I was out in Dandenong this morning until lunchtime. I noted extensive altostratus and altocumulus, as well as cumulus, across the southen horizon, with high cirrus streaming in from the west as the day wore on. smile

Currently down in Bentleigh, a chilly night ahead, but a gorgeous sunset over Lysterfield and Rowville on the way down. It was about 10C when I left home in Belgrave around an hour ago. smile

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#1332296 - 21/06/2015 18:45 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet & Windy - Squalls/Gales, Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - June 21st 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
No "alto" anything to report from out this way, after light patchy frost in the Gippy area, we had a lovely sunny still early winters day in this region.

Baro only 1027 hPa here, but still allowed clear skies, although cloud could be seen down South over Bass Straight at midday, while I enjoyed a "lamb-less" lunch on the Newlands Straight jetty (when in Rome... wink ).

This looming weather event looks to peak over SA then slump down W of Tassie?? going by todays available models (WZ again late with model updates, only 2 of 5 updated atm, so too few to form an opinion/post a picture).

I think nobody in Vic's E sector will whinge if it all unravels that way. For example, our golf course is wet enough to make me choose a route carefully when delivering sand out there later this arvo.

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#1332314 - 22/06/2015 00:09 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet & Windy - Squalls/Gales, Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - June 21st 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My fourth consecutive night below 5C, having dropped to 3.9Ca couple of hours ago, currently a 'relatively' warmer 5C atm. Brrrr... eek

Hoping for some much-needed rainfall this week. Loving the sarellite pics! smile

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#1332322 - 22/06/2015 09:42 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet & Windy - Squalls/Gales, Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - June 21st 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 3.9C (as per my above post), currently around 10C. Mostky sunny with increasing high cloud. Virtually no wind atm, but looking forward to some blustery, stormy weather later today!! grin

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#1332328 - 22/06/2015 10:52 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet & Windy - Squalls/Gales, Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - June 21st 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1555
Loc: Orange, NSW
Return of the wind here, gusting over 50kph! Overnight low of 2.5c, so just a little cold wink Shame it refuses to get that cold while rain is falling.
_________________________
Wunderground | davidm.com.au

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#1332332 - 22/06/2015 11:50 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet & Windy - Squalls/Gales, Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - June 21st 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Still awaiting the gales here in the Belgrave area, but there is a noticeable breeze from the north atm. smile

Surprised no Severe Weather Warning has been issued, only a Marine Wind Warning! poke

The sun is out despite the high cloud, currently around 13C. smile

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#1332337 - 22/06/2015 12:36 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet & Windy - Squalls/Gales, Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - June 21st 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2652
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Freezing cold thanks to rubbish uppers clouds block sun and trap cold morning temperature, now only 8.4c feels not afternoon at 12.30pm

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#1332339 - 22/06/2015 12:51 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet & Windy - Squalls/Gales, Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - June 21st 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Northerlies are finally starting to pick up out there, with my strongest gust clocked at about 26km/h so far. Currebtly 14C. smile

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#1332347 - 22/06/2015 15:10 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet & Windy - Squalls/Gales, Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - June 21st 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Peaked at 14.6C around lunchtime, currently fallen back to 12.2C and overcast. Not much wind out there surprisingly. smile

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#1332348 - 22/06/2015 15:47 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet & Windy - Squalls/Gales, Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - June 21st 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2652
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Hurry up cirrus clouds junk, clear in NW need sun to warm up

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#1332353 - 22/06/2015 17:32 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet & Windy - Squalls/Gales, Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - June 21st 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Had to deal with the frostiest car for many a year this morning, despite hot water, screen re-froze before I got 2 blocks, and when I stopped in Rosedale (washer water out), car looked whiter than it did when I left.

I recorded -0.4C (max 13C) but my gauge is under the shed eave, car showed -3C on the road in several locations on the trip to work.

Regarding this system, I think SW WA got the intense part of the cold front, and it looks to definitely weaken/slump to the W of Tassie sometime tomorrow, our rain basically limited to some patchy pre-frontal NW'ly stuff - but Mid S of NSW might pick up 1/2" or so.

AccR shows:

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