Page 1 of 3 1 2 3 >
Topic Options
#1332965 - 29/06/2015 19:57 VIC - Upper-Level Trough Then Cold Front & Low - Cold Outbreak With Wind & Showers, Alpine Snow, Possible Storms & Hail - June 30th - July 3rd 2015
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Hey g'day and bula vinaka everyone! smile

New thread in time for the half-way mark of 2015, and for the second month of winter! Yay!! grin

Here we go...

Latest synoptic analysis along with ACCESS and GFS has a potentially vigorous cold front and low from Antarctica on the move in the Southern Ocean. Ahead of it, a high remains firmly stationed over a large portion of Australia, but cloud is building from South Australia through NSW into Queensland on the satellite pics in response to a developing upper-level disturbance/inland trough (as per what was mentioned on ABC News this evening).

The developing disturbance will herald in a welcome, albeit wet and wintry break from the high pressure area, with showers developing across much of Victoria tomorrow.

Then, the high will nudge back northwest into Central Australia and a northerly airflow will build across the Victoria on Wednesday as the cold front moves in, with cloud increasing, along with showers (and perhaps thunderstorm activity) developing further. Snow developing about the High Country on Wednesday, initially to 1400m, then lowering to 1200m (possibly even lower according to Doogasnow) as a blustery cold blast surges into the State on Thursday, with the front racing north up the East Coast. Conditions moderating from Friday onwards as the high returns.

Fingers crossed for what's in store! smile

Cheers and vinaka! wink

Aussiestormfreak

Top
#1332971 - 29/06/2015 20:06 Re: VIC - Upper-Level Trough Then Cold Front & Low - Cold Outbreak With Wind & Showers, Alpine Snow, Possible Storms & Hail - June 30th - July 3rd 2015 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1310
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Its interesting that either bom or weatherzone have forecasted
any snow below 1200mtrs?? when clearly the 528 line on tonights runs brushes south gippy? lol which usually indicates low level snow.

Top
#1332972 - 29/06/2015 20:07 Re: VIC - Upper-Level Trough Then Cold Front & Low - Cold Outbreak With Wind & Showers, Alpine Snow, Possible Storms & Hail - June 30th - July 3rd 2015 [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Originally Posted By: doogasnow
Its interesting that either bom or weatherzone have forecasted
any snow below 1200mtrs?? when clearly the 528 line on tonights runs brushes south gippy? lol which usually indicates low level snow.


Lol would be great if the 528 line can extend north/northwest into Melbourne, need some low-level snow here in the Dandenong Ranges! poke

Edit: I should add that attention needs to be kept on the charts and models, looks like this impending storm could be the first in a nice line-up of winter storms, with another decent cold front scheduled for next Monday, and then another late next week! That's according to ACCESS, but hope it comes off! wink


Edited by aussiestormfreak (29/06/2015 20:13)

Top
#1332996 - 30/06/2015 00:32 Re: VIC - Upper-Level Trough Then Cold Front & Low - Cold Outbreak With Wind & Showers, Alpine Snow, Possible Storms & Hail - June 30th - July 3rd 2015 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
A cold one coming up tonight, 6.7C at the last check! Smokey out there, and I wouldn't rule out fog in the morning. smile

Top
#1333022 - 30/06/2015 10:10 Re: VIC - Upper-Level Trough Then Cold Front & Low - Cold Outbreak With Wind & Showers, Alpine Snow, Possible Storms & Hail - June 30th - July 3rd 2015 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 4.1C (had ice on the car windows this morning, brrrr...), currently a mostly sunny 9C. smile

Top
#1333031 - 30/06/2015 12:11 Re: VIC - Upper-Level Trough Then Cold Front & Low - Cold Outbreak With Wind & Showers, Alpine Snow, Possible Storms & Hail - June 30th - July 3rd 2015 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Gloriously sunny weather out there today, 16C at the last check! A bit hazy though. smile

Top
#1333036 - 30/06/2015 13:09 Re: VIC - Upper-Level Trough Then Cold Front & Low - Cold Outbreak With Wind & Showers, Alpine Snow, Possible Storms & Hail - June 30th - July 3rd 2015 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Peaked at 17.1C about 30 minutes ago, but it's getting cloudier and cooler now, currently around 15C. smile

Top
#1333052 - 30/06/2015 15:51 Re: VIC - Upper-Level Trough Then Cold Front & Low - Cold Outbreak With Wind & Showers, Alpine Snow, Possible Storms & Hail - June 30th - July 3rd 2015 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2652
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Clouds still trapped in Center Victoria as no sunshine for two days.

Top
#1333085 - 30/06/2015 21:28 Re: VIC - Upper-Level Trough Then Cold Front & Low - Cold Outbreak With Wind & Showers, Alpine Snow, Possible Storms & Hail - June 30th - July 3rd 2015 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1310
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
overnight low of 3.9c,max 10.8c and currently 6.7c smile

like how this front coming up tommoz night is positioned!!
528 line still nudging south gippy coast so all set up for a sleety cold night tommoz night :)snow level now down to 700mtrs thurs morning

Top
#1333127 - 01/07/2015 10:38 Re: VIC - Upper-Level Trough Then Cold Front & Low - Cold Outbreak With Wind & Showers, Alpine Snow, Possible Storms & Hail - June 30th - July 3rd 2015 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 8.3C, currently a mostly cloudy 11C. smile

Top
#1333149 - 01/07/2015 14:01 Re: VIC - Upper-Level Trough Then Cold Front & Low - Cold Outbreak With Wind & Showers, Alpine Snow, Possible Storms & Hail - June 30th - July 3rd 2015 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Topped 15.2C today, and still just below 15C atm. Loving the satellite pics; nice cold front coming at us, and look at the plume of cloud carried by the jet stream from the low developing over WA! smile

Edit: I should also mention that ACCESS, GFS and the synoptic charts continue to look promising for the next 7-10 day period, with more winter storm systems lined up! About time, the high has worn out its welcome, and we need rain! smile


Edited by aussiestormfreak (01/07/2015 14:04)

Top
#1333187 - 01/07/2015 19:29 Re: VIC - Upper-Level Trough Then Cold Front & Low - Cold Outbreak With Wind & Showers, Alpine Snow, Possible Storms & Hail - June 30th - July 3rd 2015 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2652
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Had 30mm rain for June out of 61mm, total year to June is 209mm over average of 203.6mm.

In 2014 my record shows average winter rainfall and January 2015 was summer over average rainfall of 107mm...

looks like this winter running dry for most of Australia, expect Southern Australia getting weak frontal.

Top
#1333192 - 01/07/2015 19:50 Re: VIC - Upper-Level Trough Then Cold Front & Low - Cold Outbreak With Wind & Showers, Alpine Snow, Possible Storms & Hail - June 30th - July 3rd 2015 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1310
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
We had a terrible total of 17mm here for the month of june!!
Thats nearly un heard of this time of year and for my location.
But on the flip side,we had double the average rainfall through april & may so all good smile

Channel 7 weather presenter jane bunn is the only one seeing the 600mtr snow level,hinting that this is a chance through south gippsland(strezlecki's in the morning):)
Both bom and weatherzone predicting around the 800mtr level,but the 528 line is still zipping past south gippy so im with jane!:)

Top
#1333210 - 02/07/2015 00:26 Re: VIC - Upper-Level Trough Then Cold Front & Low - Cold Outbreak With Wind & Showers, Alpine Snow, Possible Storms & Hail - June 30th - July 3rd 2015 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Care to stretch that 528 line northwest to Melbourne Doogasnow? wink

Yes, we here in Belgrave, like much of Victoria, fared very poorly in terms of June 2015 rainfall - 21mm exactly (not factoring in the 10-20mm that may have fallen during my trip to Sydney). My January-June 2015 total stands at 286.6mm. It was 370.8mm for the same six-month period last year! frown

I was out in Boronia yesterday arvo. The afternoon was mostly cloudy, initially a layer of stratocumulus with distant light showers (only as virga, since the rain didn't reach the ground or register on the Melbourne radar). High cloud increased from the west closer to sunset, with northerly winds freshening during the evening. smile

The temperature has been hovering around 10C since sunset, with my peak gust hitting 28.4km/h. Barometer showing 1019hPa.

The cold front is on its way towards Melbourne, currently over Cape Otway, appearing on radar as a band of locally heavy showers and squalls (maybe a thunderstorm or two as well?). Should hit within the next couple of hours. smile

Top
#1333220 - 02/07/2015 08:46 Re: VIC - Upper-Level Trough Then Cold Front & Low - Cold Outbreak With Wind & Showers, Alpine Snow, Possible Storms & Hail - June 30th - July 3rd 2015 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2099
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Bit of wind from the N/W overnight, round 11C at daylight, sprinkle of rain and the suns out at the moment.

Wind dropped off to a light breeze.

Top
#1333239 - 02/07/2015 10:06 Re: VIC - Upper-Level Trough Then Cold Front & Low - Cold Outbreak With Wind & Showers, Alpine Snow, Possible Storms & Hail - June 30th - July 3rd 2015 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Brrrr... c-c-c-cold this morning!! eek

Peak temperature for today (so far) was 10.5C overnight before the cold front arrived, dropping to an 'initial' overnight low of 7.1C after its passage and rebounding to about 8C. Currently it's falling to around 6C. smile

Been blustery for much of the night and morning, with peak gusts to about 26km/h.

Several rounds of showers developed over our neck of the woods from 2am onwards, before the front itself struck around 8-9am. No thunderstorms reported here, but around 20 minutes ago we had small hail! smile

4.3mm of rain in the 24 hours to 10am. smile

Top
#1333246 - 02/07/2015 11:00 Re: VIC - Upper-Level Trough Then Cold Front & Low - Cold Outbreak With Wind & Showers, Alpine Snow, Possible Storms & Hail - June 30th - July 3rd 2015 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2652
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Weak front slam with strong Gusty wind with light hail, as wind shifted S/SE strange at 10.50am seem High in West Kicking in fast

Top
#1333257 - 02/07/2015 11:44 Re: VIC - Upper-Level Trough Then Cold Front & Low - Cold Outbreak With Wind & Showers, Alpine Snow, Possible Storms & Hail - June 30th - July 3rd 2015 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Would love to say that this is my coldest day for the year so far, but because it peaked at 10.5C, it ties with June 18th as my equal-coldest day for 2015 to date. For now at least... poke

Nonetheless, it is FREEZING out there, bottoming out at 6.4C soon after 10am, and only making it back past 8C just now. Boy the wind has a bite!! eek

Had another hail shower about 45 minutes ago, some very beefy coldie convection about (billowing updrafts and dark bases). Would love it if we could have a thunderstorm! smile

Most of the showers are clearing, still some around Melbourne but they'll disappear over the next few hours at this rate. smile

Top
#1333275 - 02/07/2015 14:08 Re: VIC - Upper-Level Trough Then Cold Front & Low - Cold Outbreak With Wind & Showers, Alpine Snow, Possible Storms & Hail - June 30th - July 3rd 2015 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Alex_96L Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/02/2015
Posts: 220
Loc: Mulgrave (SE Suburbs), Melbour...
Just had some small hail move through. Currently 8.4C with 5.2mm.

Top
#1333292 - 02/07/2015 16:30 Re: VIC - Upper-Level Trough Then Cold Front & Low - Cold Outbreak With Wind & Showers, Alpine Snow, Possible Storms & Hail - June 30th - July 3rd 2015 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached 12.5C today, so not my coldest day for the year, that belongs to June 18th. poke

Still, it's been hovering more or less around 8-10C for the most part, and still 10C atm. Most of the showers have gone now. smile

Looking forward to the upcoming 7-10 day period! About time the high starts backing off and let the Roaring Forties get going! Lots of nice cold fronts, troughs and lows all lined up for Victoria according to the synoptic charts, ACCESS and GFS! Could be a very stormy period to come. wink

Top
Page 1 of 3 1 2 3 >


Who's Online
2 registered (kathrynsview, 1 invisible), 50 Guests and 2 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Chris #3, Cloudwatcher, dave-tsv, GuyH, Joshg, Prettybub, s016230, Sprouts
Forum Stats
29700 Members
32 Forums
24005 Topics
1502889 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image