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#1333505 - 05/07/2015 11:18 Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Looking ahead to next weekend (10th & 11th July, 2015) the Access prediction is for a very cold mass of sub 532 and 528 set squarely over Vic.

Ken KATO's excellent post with further maps is at -

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...le_#Post1333496

Going on the last cold front I saw more snow on our closest visible peak of Mt Wellington (1630M) than previous falls this year.

Getting into hard core Winter weather now, this one could be a beauty if it comes of.

The Access map for 10th July -



Edited by Lindsay Knowles (07/07/2015 07:02)
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1333509 - 05/07/2015 11:43 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Map for Sat 11/7 blush
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1333526 - 05/07/2015 18:34 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6428
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks Samboz and Ken. A bit of excitement for us if it all unfolds.

GFS is delaying all this by a day or so on this arvo's run:


Mods, can you add some dates on this thread for future reference.


Edited by Petros (05/07/2015 18:38)

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#1333531 - 05/07/2015 19:02 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Could even make them the correct dates for the W/E, 11 & 12 July, 2015. blush

Access map for same time as map in OP is showing the cold air mass further west also Petros, backs up GFS in that regard.

Could be a cool one - time of year is right and compared to the most recent cold front which dropped a heap of snow following far less favourable (cold) synoptic weather forecasts.
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1333548 - 05/07/2015 23:57 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5720
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Hey Samboz! Great thread! High-time someone else pitches-in, and I'll start with a synoptic analysis. wink

There's a fairly small frontal system coming through Victoria tomorrow (Monday July 6th) with showers and possible thunderstorms spreading from the west; snowfalls to 1200m at this stage. The system will weaken as it progresses east.

A high pressure system will then be the dominating feature for the middle part of the week, bringing frosts and fogs in the morning. Showers and alpine snow are still a possibility.

Then, the pattern turns complex but entertaining from about Thursday onwards, as the cold pool on the move in the Southern Ocean is thrown north and a series of low pressure systems and cold fronts develop within it. The cold pool and main low pressure area literally overrun Victoria on about Friday, preceded by a northerly airflow, and then surging north towards Southern Queensland and offshore into the Pacific! No doubt blustery winds, along with showers and thunderstorms (potentially heavy) likely as the cold front bursts across Victoria, maybe hail and perhaps even low-level snow? wink

ACCESS hints at the cold pool spilling off the Australian East Coast into the Tasman Sea/South Pacific Ocean, and evolving into a potentially MASSIVE, deep ECL and associated rain event early next week! smile

Looking forward to it!! grin

Aussiestormfreak

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#1333597 - 06/07/2015 13:10 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4399
Here's the percentage of all the forecast scenarios from the NCEP and CMC ensembles that are forecasing snowfalls for the period between 6 and 14 days from now (I still think low level snow for VIC will also be dependent on whether the state gets blasted by SW'lies or slightly less cold SE'lies... which in turn depends on the positioning of any intensifying low near SE Australia):



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#1333631 - 06/07/2015 18:43 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6428
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: samboz

Could be a cool one - time of year is right and compared to the most recent cold front which dropped a heap of snow following far less favourable (cold) synoptic weather forecasts.


Yep agree Samboz, also with Ken re (if) it turns very wet out Gippy way next weekend onwards, then snow potential will suffer.

What a complex set of potential outcomes that "possibilities" in the current models - with this system looming, best to disregard the "old" (> 12hrs) model runs as its all so dynamic.

For example, I cant remember a "summer" high sitting over Tassie in July before, but check out AccR's prognosis that said high will "trap" very cold air over Vic to the N of it!! (despite my encroaching Alzheimer's, I'm sure I've never seen a model prog that). Would expect more temperate air advected from SE NSW over E Vic:


GFS is chopping and changing, but around the basic scenario that INTERESTING weather is looming for SE Aus! Hang on to your hat's:

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#1333634 - 06/07/2015 19:28 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 929
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah agreed petros!! lol

Those charts are rediculous!!Look at ken's snow charts,possible snow all the way to the coast!
If this comes off i think we would be garantee to set some sort of records??

At this stage according to jane bunn there will be snow down to 500mtr on sat,thats just the antree before snowzilla hits!!

That last tuesday run on the above chart shows the 528 line over middle nsw!!

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#1333635 - 06/07/2015 19:28 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2214
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Wait until Thursday would be best GFS update, as Cold Blast uppers Winter will slam SE Australia from Tasmaina to SE Queensland.

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#1333663 - 07/07/2015 00:02 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5720
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Should be fun for one of my relatives who is off to Brisbane tomorrow! poke

Still looks promising, hope all the ingredients fall in place. A low-level snow event would be exciting (preferably during the weekend), but a rain event would be better, as long as it falls in the right places and doesn't lead to dangerous flooding! And we don't want the opposite either this winter - drought! smile

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#1333674 - 07/07/2015 07:41 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
ECL @ hovering close to 990 for Sunday, definitely finding the fleecy gear !

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?unit=p35&type=mslp-precip&area=Au&model=CG

This morning very overcast drizzly rain, to dark at 0710 to drive w/o headlights on, 8C and no wind.
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1333678 - 07/07/2015 08:46 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5720
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 6.2C, currently around 8C and mostly cloudy. smile

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#1333717 - 07/07/2015 18:54 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6428
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Turned easterly here today, another 2.75mm from drizzle takes to 4.75mm since yesterday in the lead up to this weekend's event. The Gippsland low lands don't need any more rain for a couple of weeks at this time of the year.

But if significant snow was associated with this weekends event (rather than SE'ly rain focussing/impacting Gippsland), then that would be VERY welcome!

Models still chopping/changing - as is GFS, anyhow this is what's on GFS's mind right now:


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#1333720 - 07/07/2015 19:37 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5720
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a splendid top of 17.3C here today, my warmest day for the month! grin

Nice to have sunny intervals during the afternoon despite the haze and cloudcover. At least winds were light. smile

Currently around 10C.

First cold front for this thread is now on the move in the Southern Ocean, visible on the satellite. It's expected to weaken and slip off to the southeast, but the anticipated storm and cold blast is still on the cards; winds should swing into a northerly airflow across Victoria ahead of it starting tomorrow! ACCESS still has the cold air overrunning much of Southeast Australia, not-to-mention the potentially HUGE ECL that's still scheduled for early next week!! grin

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#1333722 - 07/07/2015 19:43 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 929
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
This is an unbeleivable set up!!
Charts so active in change in every run,all that can be
assured is that it will be very cold and wet.But to say were all
the rain will fall and how low level the snow will be is just about impossible!!

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#1333747 - 07/07/2015 23:18 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5720
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Cold night ahead, expecting frost and/or fog in the morning! Currently 5.7C here! eek

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#1333759 - 08/07/2015 07:34 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5720
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 3.8C, currently around 5C with mostly clear skies overhead. Probably be some fog lower down in the suburbs. smile

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#1333841 - 08/07/2015 18:32 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2214
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Cold nights ahead while we wait next winter blast weekend.

So very interesting monster two typhoons at same time.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms&prod=ir&zoom=&time=

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#1333842 - 08/07/2015 18:52 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: chasers addict]
Lucy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/03/2013
Posts: 82
Loc: Lilydale Victoria Creswick Vic...
Yes I have just had a look on the earth wind map, very interesting, thanks for posting.

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#1333845 - 08/07/2015 19:05 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
Lucy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/03/2013
Posts: 82
Loc: Lilydale Victoria Creswick Vic...

Typoon Chan- hom is going to impact on China, Taiwan and Japan. Strengthening into a very large and dangerous cyclone is expected regardless of whether or not super typhoon status is reached.

A super typhoon is the equivalent of a strong Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific basins with sustained winds 240 kph (150 mph) or higher.

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