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#1333505 - 05/07/2015 11:18 Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1766
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Looking ahead to next weekend (10th & 11th July, 2015) the Access prediction is for a very cold mass of sub 532 and 528 set squarely over Vic.

Ken KATO's excellent post with further maps is at -

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...le_#Post1333496

Going on the last cold front I saw more snow on our closest visible peak of Mt Wellington (1630M) than previous falls this year.

Getting into hard core Winter weather now, this one could be a beauty if it comes of.

The Access map for 10th July -



Edited by Lindsay Knowles (07/07/2015 07:02)
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1333509 - 05/07/2015 11:43 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1766
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Map for Sat 11/7 blush
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1333526 - 05/07/2015 18:34 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6514
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks Samboz and Ken. A bit of excitement for us if it all unfolds.

GFS is delaying all this by a day or so on this arvo's run:


Mods, can you add some dates on this thread for future reference.


Edited by Petros (05/07/2015 18:38)

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#1333531 - 05/07/2015 19:02 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1766
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Could even make them the correct dates for the W/E, 11 & 12 July, 2015. blush

Access map for same time as map in OP is showing the cold air mass further west also Petros, backs up GFS in that regard.

Could be a cool one - time of year is right and compared to the most recent cold front which dropped a heap of snow following far less favourable (cold) synoptic weather forecasts.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1333548 - 05/07/2015 23:57 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
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Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Hey Samboz! Great thread! High-time someone else pitches-in, and I'll start with a synoptic analysis. wink

There's a fairly small frontal system coming through Victoria tomorrow (Monday July 6th) with showers and possible thunderstorms spreading from the west; snowfalls to 1200m at this stage. The system will weaken as it progresses east.

A high pressure system will then be the dominating feature for the middle part of the week, bringing frosts and fogs in the morning. Showers and alpine snow are still a possibility.

Then, the pattern turns complex but entertaining from about Thursday onwards, as the cold pool on the move in the Southern Ocean is thrown north and a series of low pressure systems and cold fronts develop within it. The cold pool and main low pressure area literally overrun Victoria on about Friday, preceded by a northerly airflow, and then surging north towards Southern Queensland and offshore into the Pacific! No doubt blustery winds, along with showers and thunderstorms (potentially heavy) likely as the cold front bursts across Victoria, maybe hail and perhaps even low-level snow? wink

ACCESS hints at the cold pool spilling off the Australian East Coast into the Tasman Sea/South Pacific Ocean, and evolving into a potentially MASSIVE, deep ECL and associated rain event early next week! smile

Looking forward to it!! grin

Aussiestormfreak

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#1333597 - 06/07/2015 13:10 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4509
Here's the percentage of all the forecast scenarios from the NCEP and CMC ensembles that are forecasing snowfalls for the period between 6 and 14 days from now (I still think low level snow for VIC will also be dependent on whether the state gets blasted by SW'lies or slightly less cold SE'lies... which in turn depends on the positioning of any intensifying low near SE Australia):



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#1333631 - 06/07/2015 18:43 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6514
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: samboz

Could be a cool one - time of year is right and compared to the most recent cold front which dropped a heap of snow following far less favourable (cold) synoptic weather forecasts.


Yep agree Samboz, also with Ken re (if) it turns very wet out Gippy way next weekend onwards, then snow potential will suffer.

What a complex set of potential outcomes that "possibilities" in the current models - with this system looming, best to disregard the "old" (> 12hrs) model runs as its all so dynamic.

For example, I cant remember a "summer" high sitting over Tassie in July before, but check out AccR's prognosis that said high will "trap" very cold air over Vic to the N of it!! (despite my encroaching Alzheimer's, I'm sure I've never seen a model prog that). Would expect more temperate air advected from SE NSW over E Vic:


GFS is chopping and changing, but around the basic scenario that INTERESTING weather is looming for SE Aus! Hang on to your hat's:

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#1333634 - 06/07/2015 19:28 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah agreed petros!! lol

Those charts are rediculous!!Look at ken's snow charts,possible snow all the way to the coast!
If this comes off i think we would be garantee to set some sort of records??

At this stage according to jane bunn there will be snow down to 500mtr on sat,thats just the antree before snowzilla hits!!

That last tuesday run on the above chart shows the 528 line over middle nsw!!

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#1333635 - 06/07/2015 19:28 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2248
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Wait until Thursday would be best GFS update, as Cold Blast uppers Winter will slam SE Australia from Tasmaina to SE Queensland.

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#1333663 - 07/07/2015 00:02 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
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Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Should be fun for one of my relatives who is off to Brisbane tomorrow! poke

Still looks promising, hope all the ingredients fall in place. A low-level snow event would be exciting (preferably during the weekend), but a rain event would be better, as long as it falls in the right places and doesn't lead to dangerous flooding! And we don't want the opposite either this winter - drought! smile

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#1333674 - 07/07/2015 07:41 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1766
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
ECL @ hovering close to 990 for Sunday, definitely finding the fleecy gear !

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?unit=p35&type=mslp-precip&area=Au&model=CG

This morning very overcast drizzly rain, to dark at 0710 to drive w/o headlights on, 8C and no wind.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1333678 - 07/07/2015 08:46 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
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Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 6.2C, currently around 8C and mostly cloudy. smile

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#1333717 - 07/07/2015 18:54 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6514
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Turned easterly here today, another 2.75mm from drizzle takes to 4.75mm since yesterday in the lead up to this weekend's event. The Gippsland low lands don't need any more rain for a couple of weeks at this time of the year.

But if significant snow was associated with this weekends event (rather than SE'ly rain focussing/impacting Gippsland), then that would be VERY welcome!

Models still chopping/changing - as is GFS, anyhow this is what's on GFS's mind right now:


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#1333720 - 07/07/2015 19:37 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
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Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a splendid top of 17.3C here today, my warmest day for the month! grin

Nice to have sunny intervals during the afternoon despite the haze and cloudcover. At least winds were light. smile

Currently around 10C.

First cold front for this thread is now on the move in the Southern Ocean, visible on the satellite. It's expected to weaken and slip off to the southeast, but the anticipated storm and cold blast is still on the cards; winds should swing into a northerly airflow across Victoria ahead of it starting tomorrow! ACCESS still has the cold air overrunning much of Southeast Australia, not-to-mention the potentially HUGE ECL that's still scheduled for early next week!! grin

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#1333722 - 07/07/2015 19:43 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
This is an unbeleivable set up!!
Charts so active in change in every run,all that can be
assured is that it will be very cold and wet.But to say were all
the rain will fall and how low level the snow will be is just about impossible!!

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#1333747 - 07/07/2015 23:18 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
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Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Cold night ahead, expecting frost and/or fog in the morning! Currently 5.7C here! eek

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#1333759 - 08/07/2015 07:34 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
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Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 3.8C, currently around 5C with mostly clear skies overhead. Probably be some fog lower down in the suburbs. smile

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#1333841 - 08/07/2015 18:32 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2248
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Cold nights ahead while we wait next winter blast weekend.

So very interesting monster two typhoons at same time.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms&prod=ir&zoom=&time=

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#1333842 - 08/07/2015 18:52 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: chasers addict]
Lucy Offline
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Registered: 07/03/2013
Posts: 82
Loc: Lilydale Victoria Creswick Vic...
Yes I have just had a look on the earth wind map, very interesting, thanks for posting.

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#1333845 - 08/07/2015 19:05 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
Lucy Offline
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Registered: 07/03/2013
Posts: 82
Loc: Lilydale Victoria Creswick Vic...

Typoon Chan- hom is going to impact on China, Taiwan and Japan. Strengthening into a very large and dangerous cyclone is expected regardless of whether or not super typhoon status is reached.

A super typhoon is the equivalent of a strong Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific basins with sustained winds 240 kph (150 mph) or higher.

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#1333851 - 08/07/2015 19:24 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
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Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
After the nippy start (with patchy fog and frost about the place), we reached a glorious top of 17.1C with abundant sunshine and light winds. Still party cloudy and hazy at times during the afternoon, but otherwise it was beautiful! smile

Currently in Lilydale, around 10C and mostly cloudy. smile

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#1333858 - 08/07/2015 19:49 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
The experts are saying most significant cold blast in 7 years!!!

Anyone else having trouble getting the latest update on gfs & access??

Dont know were to start with this system lol
There saying possible rainfall of 50mm plus for gippsland combined with snow down to 600mtrs???? lol crazy stuff

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#1333859 - 08/07/2015 19:55 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1766
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Tut tut dooga, bit early to say that, but yes, I might be right...........






You mean as per OP of course laugh
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1333898 - 08/07/2015 23:34 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
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Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Got home from Lilydale around an hour ago. A relatively mild evening out there, thanks in part to extensive cloudcover. Currently around 10C. smile

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#1333907 - 09/07/2015 06:15 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1766
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
1st time for everything ..lol

2.5c here, prob. get a little colder in the next hr, similiar temp to yesterday morn.

No frost on the ground but saw iced up cars in Boisdale.

Getting work knocked over today, next 4 or 5 might be "watch the heater" weather.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1333911 - 09/07/2015 07:27 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
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Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 8.2C, currently a mostly 10C. smile

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#1333928 - 09/07/2015 09:53 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Lindsay Knowles Offline
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Registered: 18/01/2003
Posts: 3938
Loc: Pakenham Victoria's Storm Capi...
We have moved to Gembrook from Lakeside (Pakenham) and have noticed its about 3 degrees cooler up in the hills. Last Saturday we only managed to get to 6.8c. I hate the cold but I am looking forward to seeing what the weekend brings. Snow for us ????

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#1333958 - 09/07/2015 13:25 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
crikey Offline
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Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
Willie weather has snow falling for central district above 1200m for friday , above 700m for saturday and sunday
( mouse over the icons for this forecast)
Also 40-75m heavy rain possible for the yarra valley on saturday/sunday

http://www.willyweather.com.au/vic/yarra-valley-and-dandenong-ranges/gembrook.html


Edited by crikey (09/07/2015 13:27)
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#1333969 - 09/07/2015 15:21 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2248
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Need windy North push low clouds out Victoria as its trapping in Victoria.

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#1333973 - 09/07/2015 15:44 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
balmz Offline
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Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 641
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Wow!! What a set up! Currently sitting in the lounge at LAX waiting for my flight back to Australia. Just wondered on to see what the weather was doing at home after 2 weeks in the Northern Summer and bam!

Get to Melbourne Friday afternoon and there all week! Gonna be a cold one! Kind of annoyed I won't be at my Canberra place as there is a good potential of low level snow around the ACT!

Can't have it all.

Hope this one comes off as a big one!

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#1333989 - 09/07/2015 17:36 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Struggled to make much above 10C today! In fact, 12.1C was the warmest it got to this arvo! eek

Been overcast virtually all day, and no sunshine whatsoever; the only blue sky I saw was mainly off towards the south this morning on the way to Dandenong. poke

Currently around 11C atm.

Loving the satellite pics, models and synoptic charts right now! It's shaping up to be an EPIC winter storm for Victoria. A trough is stationed to our west over SA and the Great Australian Bight, and the main cold front and low are on the move in the Southern Ocean behind it! smile

The trough should arrive tomorrow, with the cold front bursting across Victoria on Saturday and charging north towards Southern Queensland! Still looking at a massive ECL developing, and another frontal system should arrive behind it next week, maintaining cold, showery weather over SE Australia for sometime afterwards! smile

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#1334009 - 09/07/2015 19:15 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: Lindsay Knowles]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6514
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Lindsay Knowles
We have moved to Gembrook from Lakeside (Pakenham) and have noticed its about 3 degrees cooler up in the hills. Last Saturday we only managed to get to 6.8c. I hate the cold but I am looking forward to seeing what the weekend brings. Snow for us ????


Nice place old mate! Make sure you clear the trees around.... (which an old Briag boy would well know).

Frost here this morning, but a mild day (still 12C at 5:30pm here).

For some reason, WZ has taken to be slow for CMC/AccG so I'll post GFS again for this outlook:



Our paddocks are heavy in this area after good mid-June rain, and 8mm over past 8 days, and of course the calm & short days associated with July. We don't need rain here, but nice to see the states W and N central areas will get some smile

Good luck snow skier's !! smile

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#1334021 - 09/07/2015 19:52 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Interesting set up. I think initially(sat/sun)the main front and
cold air goes up more over western vic/south aus.
But from sunday onwards looks like we could get quiet alot of rain and more fronts locked to come up all next week!
Been a while since ive seen such a prolonged period of cold wet
snowy weather smile

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#1334028 - 09/07/2015 20:37 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1766
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Ominous map for Monday 13/7 P, looks a little above us to the N and that is a good thing. Very true, almost no evap. with these short days, paddocks stayed wet for weeks out here.

Worked Sale and Stratford today, beautiful Winter day, sunny no wind, got a heap done, right up to - stood on a 4" nail left upright in a piece of timber.....some folks don't bend over nails !!

Great to see statewide rain forecast and some Vic. snow melt closer to Spring will top up the reservoirs.

Standby by for the full sky line snow pics first time it's clear enough for the view north...if I can hobble to the front door. mad
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1334063 - 10/07/2015 00:08 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
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Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Ouch! Hope you feel better soon samboz! frown

Another relatively mild night at this stage, compared to Wednesday morning lol, currently around 9C. smile

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#1334065 - 10/07/2015 00:36 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
Remy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/02/2015
Posts: 199
Loc: Mulgrave (SE Suburbs), Melbour...
Looks like a few cells popping up NE.

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#1334070 - 10/07/2015 07:41 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
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Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 9.0C, currently around 10C and mostly cloudy with a few showers around Melbourne on radar. smile

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#1334078 - 10/07/2015 08:44 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1766
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Yesterday almost no snow left on Mt Wellington (the real Mt Well., the one in Vic. wink ) which is 35/40km to our north. This morning with a temp of 6C I didn't have huge expectations of overnight snow laying for long.

The cloud cleared 10 minutes ago and a big piece of blue sky opened up over MtW. revealing quite a nice fall for the conditions - augurs well for big things in the next week.

Some steady light rain overnight, no wind.


Edited by samboz (10/07/2015 08:47)
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1334133 - 10/07/2015 14:41 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
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Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Peaked at 16.1C shortly before midday here, currently around 13C. smile

Been a funny old day, with a mix of sun and cloud. Showers arrived here around lunchtime with the passage of the trough (occasionally moderately heavy), also had a slight risk of thunderstorms, but no storm activity here. A bit of wind too. smile

The clock is racing, and the impending storm and cold blast are still on track to strike Victoria late-tonight. Just look at all the polar air being pulled north from Antarctica on the satellite over the Great Australian Bight!! grin

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#1334141 - 10/07/2015 15:09 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2248
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Yep Aussiestormfrerak looks good polar air pumping up and now isolated showers in middle of Victoria due to West System pushing stable clouds.

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#1334150 - 10/07/2015 15:42 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
avalon Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/07/2007
Posts: 1541
Loc: Mt Macedon Vic 870m elev
The afternoon light and weak winter sun are beautiful here at Macedon.
The mountain has disappeared under cloud and showers.
It's quite mild for July. North wind is just starting to kick up as well.

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#1334158 - 10/07/2015 16:18 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: avalon]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6207
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
Originally Posted By: avalon
The afternoon light and weak winter sun are beautiful here at Macedon.
The mountain has disappeared under cloud and showers.
It's quite mild for July. North wind is just starting to kick up as well.


Far out it's going to be cold down there when the change hits. Might struggle to get above zero for the whole day on Sunday. grin
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1334176 - 10/07/2015 17:28 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2248
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks good snap during morning is best to see behavior during day for Victoria, we don't know what hail size would be isolated.

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#1334184 - 10/07/2015 17:52 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
avalon Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/07/2007
Posts: 1541
Loc: Mt Macedon Vic 870m elev
Hey Wave Rider I bet it will be colder in Crookwell on Sunday.

With the way the Sat Pic looks to me I'm guessing it's going to pass mostly to the west then north of me.
The rain has started now and it sitting on 5C which is actually quite mild for here at this time of the day.

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#1334199 - 10/07/2015 18:51 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2248
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Avalon a mate of mine who live in Blackwood are getting ready for snow falls in their backyard which snow more likely to all Great Dividing Range... Watch out for black ice if any one wants visit or drive over ranges as traffic more likey.

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#1334203 - 10/07/2015 19:12 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6514
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep, like others, I reckon latest models show the action to fling over and above Vic for antarctic blast 1. But still a significant weather event - although will not test 40-50 year records imo.

Here's a compilation of the latest WZ available model runs for Vic precip Sat 10am - Mon 10am (AccR/GFS/AccG):


still a very dynamic system, now we can sit back and watch it evolve on the SatIR loop.

..... and whatever the outcome, then comes "blast 2" for next weekend (any thread starters out there?).



Edited by Petros (10/07/2015 19:13)

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#1334221 - 10/07/2015 20:04 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
avalon Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/07/2007
Posts: 1541
Loc: Mt Macedon Vic 870m elev
Thanks CA

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#1334232 - 10/07/2015 21:16 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: avalon]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6207
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
Originally Posted By: avalon
Hey Wave Rider I bet it will be colder in Crookwell on Sunday.

With the way the Sat Pic looks to me I'm guessing it's going to pass mostly to the west then north of me.
The rain has started now and it sitting on 5C which is actually quite mild for here at this time of the day.


Yeah true, it probably will be colder when I go there on Sunday. The cold air seems to be bypassing Vic for sure. It bypasses Tas even more. In fact even Crookwell is only just on the edge of the really cold air. The bulk of it will be focused on the Central Tablelands. Anyway that's NSW talk. grin
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1334239 - 10/07/2015 22:17 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Indeed Chasers Addict! smile

Weather's started deteriorating quite quickly over the past few hours, winds are picking up (peak gusts of near 30km/h from the north/northwest), and showers are redeveloping over Melbourne. I spent a large part of the evening in Dandenong, got treated to a beautiful sunset, complete with virga! smile

Currently around 11C and very blustery! Certainly not gale-force though. smile

Regarding next week and the following weekend, yes worth keeping an eye on. Once the current storm moves offshore, a high edges in behind it to the north; persistent westerly flow maintains chilly, showery weather. A new cold front charges in mid-week, bringing more cold, wet, stormy conditions, and then organising into an ECL after it crosses Victoria. Is it too early to establish a thread for next week? smile

A bit too far out at this stage, but ACCESS also has what could be yet another BIG winter storm on the move behind it, approaching Victoria by the week starting Monday July 20th! Now we're talking, about time the Roaring Forties kicked-in and ushered in our usual blustery/windy season! smile

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#1334244 - 10/07/2015 23:57 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Some quite heavy showers with squalls associated with the cold front, which is now about to strike Adelaide, perhaps the risk of a thunderstorm as well! Should hit Melbourne sometime early tomorrow morning at the rate it's going. smile

Looks nice and solid on satellite! smile

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#1334249 - 11/07/2015 00:45 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2248
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks like big problem for SES from now on as front looks very powerful wind change from Adelaide to across SE Australia early in morning for Victoria.

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#1334279 - 11/07/2015 09:11 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 9.4C, currently around 10C. Had 1.1mm of rain this morning, right now it's sunny but quite blustery. smile

Edit: peak wind gust last night was clocked at 31km/h btw. smile


Edited by aussiestormfreak (11/07/2015 09:16)

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#1334299 - 11/07/2015 09:48 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1553
Loc: Orange, NSW
Low of 7.5c with some good showers overnight, let it piss down and fill my tank up please grin

3.5mm in the gauge this morning - electronic one recorded absolutely nothing, must be playing up again.
_________________________
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#1334342 - 11/07/2015 12:28 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Peaked at 12.4C here just before noon, temperature is now plummeting as the front prepares to come through the Belgrave area, currently around 11C! smile

Even outside the main spring/summer Storm Season, my area can be a magnet/target or generator for unexpected bad weather! Just had a coldie shower/thunderstorm spring to life overhead during the past 10 minutes, dropping a quick shot of rain and small hail! No thunder or lightning, but ah well! smile

Looking forward to the band of showers and thunderstorms out over Melbourne's west, and then the low and cold pool behind it! grin

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#1334343 - 11/07/2015 12:30 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
avalon Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/07/2007
Posts: 1541
Loc: Mt Macedon Vic 870m elev
It has just started to snow at Mt Macedon, nothing spectacular but it signals tfe arrival of the cold air.
It had actually been quite mild here up until 30 minutes ago.
It's 2.9C now

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#1334345 - 11/07/2015 12:32 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
avalon Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/07/2007
Posts: 1541
Loc: Mt Macedon Vic 870m elev
Proper snow now, quite heavy and 1.2C smile

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#1334346 - 11/07/2015 12:35 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2248
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Only 6.7c at 12.30pm still raining 11mm so far as looks temperature more colder in West.


Edited by chasers addict (11/07/2015 12:36)

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#1334357 - 11/07/2015 13:13 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1553
Loc: Orange, NSW
Temp has dropped 2.5c in the past half hour, now sitting at 6.9c. Wind is back up too, gusting around 50kph.

Looks nasty out, some very heavy showers on and off, waiting for the big bulk of it to arrive.

_________________________
Wunderground | davidm.com.au

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#1334362 - 11/07/2015 13:29 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
avalon Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/07/2007
Posts: 1541
Loc: Mt Macedon Vic 870m elev
We got down to 0.3C whilst it was snowing.
It's stopped now.

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#1334365 - 11/07/2015 13:39 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 843
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Actually ok here right now considering, suns out and sitting around 11.5 - wind around 20km/h but looks like a new band for us just crossing the SA boarder - wind looks stronger behind it.

4.5mm overnight - wanting lots more as we are 120mm down on last year


Edited by logansi (11/07/2015 13:40)
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1334366 - 11/07/2015 13:48 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2248
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thanks Avalon to tell me cold level is about to lower as waiting SW front move in as here only 6.2c at 1.45pm

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#1334368 - 11/07/2015 13:52 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Is the coldest air moving through with the actual front?
or is that second band thats about to hit sw vic the main/coldest
air??

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#1334371 - 11/07/2015 13:59 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
8C here atm and falling! eek

The frontal band is passing over, quite dark and wet out there. Had a second, heavier round of small hail about 5 minutes ago! smile

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#1334372 - 11/07/2015 14:04 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1766
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Pleasant 15C here, breezy with showers missing us as they pass thru to the S.

No new snow on MtWell o/night.

It's on the way Gippslanders !

Coldest I can see on the radar doog' is 5C-6C just west of Melb.


Edited by samboz (11/07/2015 14:06)
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1334373 - 11/07/2015 14:08 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1553
Loc: Orange, NSW
This is the 10am analysis from ACCESS - looks like the coldest air should be incoming within the next few hours:

_________________________
Wunderground | davidm.com.au

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#1334374 - 11/07/2015 14:11 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2248
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks like Thunderstorm developing near Victoria boarder between two front.

http://realtime2.bsch.com.au/vis_sat2.html?region=vic&loop=no&images=&allday=&start=&stop=#nav

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#1334376 - 11/07/2015 14:15 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thanks samboz/david.Got real dark here in the past 10min,just starting to rain :)be interesting to see how low the snow falls? and where?

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#1334377 - 11/07/2015 14:15 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Currently 9.8c but id be suspecting that temp wont last long lol

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#1334380 - 11/07/2015 14:26 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Yes, insane thunderstorm development across Northeast Victoria and into Southern NSW! Would love to be in Corryong right now!! grin

Current temperature is about 7C with rain, about 1mm since 9am so far. Barometer showing 1002hPa. smile

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#1334382 - 11/07/2015 14:37 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 843
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Winds picking up now, and getting blacker - Pressure down to 998hPa
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1334384 - 11/07/2015 14:53 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2248
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Lucky aussiestormfreak the band is sitting in Victoria as radar showes thickening slow in idle looks like first front doing hard work.

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#1334385 - 11/07/2015 14:53 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Very dark again,starting to rain again still 9c and waiting for the actual front to drop the temp

Looks like some real cold air about to enter from sw vicco!

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#1334387 - 11/07/2015 14:58 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Very dark again,starting to rain again still 9c and waiting for the actual front to drop the temp

Looks like some real cold air about to enter from sw vicco!

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#1334388 - 11/07/2015 14:58 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
lol just as i talk cloud has rolled in wind is up and its peeing down! temp 8c

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#1334389 - 11/07/2015 15:01 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
avalon Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/07/2007
Posts: 1541
Loc: Mt Macedon Vic 870m elev
We are back up to. 2.4C here now after a low of 0.3C whilst it was snowing.
I hope this thing has a little more bite than what we have seen so far.

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#1334393 - 11/07/2015 15:30 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
dropping,7.5c and front looming

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#1334411 - 11/07/2015 17:07 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2248
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
temp drop to 5.8c at 5pm of average 6.4c daytime feeling SE Australia using heaps wood, gas, electricity to warm up house.
Very Stable no wind.


Edited by chasers addict (11/07/2015 17:08)

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#1334415 - 11/07/2015 17:09 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1766
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
At 1700, thunder, heavy rain, pretty much dark now at 1709.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1334431 - 11/07/2015 18:04 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6514
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Very mild day here, mostly calm, occasional NW'ly flurry, a couple of brief sprinkles didn't affect golf today.

Then a frontal-like band went through circa 5pm lowering temps and dropping 2.5mm rain to add to our 0.5mm of unwanted rain that fell yesterday.

The baro has been steady for hours at 1003 hPa.

SatIR is showing us all that the real cold stuff is flinging over our (Vic) heads to create a very interesting night for those on the NSW W facing sides of the divide.

Meanwhile, ECL-wise, we have a couple of potential LLC wanabees to Vic's SW to S regions that might become the "knot" that develops into the wet side of the Victorian equation over the next 48 hrs!


Edited by Petros (11/07/2015 18:07)

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#1334443 - 11/07/2015 18:34 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6514
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
A review of the latest model runs show the potential max rain for Vic to be out in my area (East) side of the state.

.... but very much watch'n'see.

Hate to say it, but rain on the Vic snow ski fields looks likely imo.


Edited by Petros (11/07/2015 18:35)

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#1334466 - 11/07/2015 19:27 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1553
Loc: Orange, NSW
Looks like they've raised the snow level from 700m to 900m down here. Boo frown
_________________________
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#1334485 - 11/07/2015 20:25 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
avalon Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/07/2007
Posts: 1541
Loc: Mt Macedon Vic 870m elev
I'm seriously underwhelmed by this much hyped event.
Apart from a bit of snow virtually nothing out if the ordinary has happened here today.

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#1334492 - 11/07/2015 20:49 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah i agree avalon in terms of low level snow and the amount of(so far)
But having said that,when u see the sorts of temps that sw vic are currently experiencing(cape nelson which is right on the coast 4c)and alot of others on 4c as well,thats damn cold for down there.

Also the guys at the met centre are still saying that the coldest and worst weather will hit overnight and in the morning.
With the nature of this event i still wouldnt rule out something special happening.

Im hopping i get to see some sleety showers later on??

Currently 5c here atm

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#1334505 - 11/07/2015 21:22 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1553
Loc: Orange, NSW
Posted on another forum, copying here as well smile

The windmap from nullschool.net is looking very impressive:

500 hPa temp + wind
500 hPa temp
850 hPa temp + wind
850 hPa temp
Sfc temp + wind
Sfc temp
_________________________
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#1334516 - 11/07/2015 21:54 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: avalon]
Macca-wx Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2001
Posts: 1974
Loc: Wavell Heights, QLD
Originally Posted By: avalon
I'm seriously underwhelmed by this much hyped event.
Apart from a bit of snow virtually nothing out if the ordinary has happened here today.


Vic often gets the raw end of the deal in these set ups with the cold pool causing through SA into NSW/southern QLD delivering the goods to them and not to Vic. I remember this happening quite a bit when I used to live in Vic. Need the low to develop about 100km further east than this one did to maximise the potential for "central" Vic (and also for QLD IMO).

Macca

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#1334520 - 11/07/2015 22:04 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 843
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Very cold but no wind here - nearing 1C
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1334521 - 11/07/2015 22:06 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2248
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thanks davidm for map, upper low eye just W/SW of Bendigo.

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#1334528 - 11/07/2015 22:19 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
Macca-wx Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2001
Posts: 1974
Loc: Wavell Heights, QLD
Reports of some sleet in that band of precip coming through the area NW of Castlemaine.

Macca

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#1334529 - 11/07/2015 22:21 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: chasers addict]
duckweather Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/12/2010
Posts: 2556
Loc: Wantirna, Vic
Hi all.

Love those maps davidm - quite beautiful to watch.

I have found myself mumbling "fail"..."nuh wait"..."nuh fail"..."waaaait"...in the hope of seeing something interesting in the weather visiting us here in Wantirna. It's been a bit boring unfortunately.
Though...I will see what happens a little later on. It may get more interesting at some point around or after midnight???
'Tis cold here though smile

Cheers, Duck the disappointed (so far).

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#1334550 - 11/07/2015 23:18 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2248
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Maryborough 3.5c
Castlemaine 5.3c
Ballarat 3.5c
Kilmore 3.4c
Kangaroo Flat 4.5c
Horsham 5.7c
Shepparton 5.1c


at 11.15pm

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#1334556 - 11/07/2015 23:31 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 843
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
0.8C at Portland Aiport
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1334559 - 11/07/2015 23:38 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: duckweather]
Mishka Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 55
Loc: Emerald, Victoria - 300m asl
Originally Posted By: duckweather
I have found myself mumbling "fail"..."nuh wait"..."nuh fail"..."waaaait"..


LoL. Lying in bed. Can't sleep. Following all threads thinking exactly the same thoughts. The car is packed with gear and kids toboggans - ready to hit the hills near Melbourne first thing in the morning. snoooooow (low level) dammit!

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#1334571 - 12/07/2015 00:27 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
A chilly night ahead, given how still it is out there you'd think a frost is likely in the morning! Currently around 5C here in Belgrave. If low-level snow is off the cards, then hopefully some good heavy rainfall will result instead. Judging by the satellite, that's likely tomorrow! smile

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#1334572 - 12/07/2015 00:33 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1553
Loc: Orange, NSW
Down to 4.2c here, has been very thick fog for part of the night, looks to be clearing. At one point I couldn't see the weather station about 20m away.

Circulation very evident on radar from that upper low, should be moving in a NE direction. Very cold air in the middle there, only 1c warmer than the cold pool that's up in NSW.
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#1334576 - 12/07/2015 02:15 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4509
Nice MODIS shot from yesterday clearly showing the mass of cold air:



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#1334601 - 12/07/2015 06:50 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1766
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Mild morning here, 4.8mm, no wind, 7C - be interesting to see what the Antarctic Avalanche dropped on Mt. Well overnight.

When I see places like Gelantipy @755m asl sitting on 2.7C at 0600 / 3.8mm , Omeo 3C & 10.4mm it does seem this corner of Vic has not any any outstanding event.

Meanwhile, this coming week promises..........Monday could be interesting.

I was going to whiz up the road to the north, see what daylight brings, I'm not thinking much to see down low.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1334632 - 12/07/2015 08:13 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6514
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Mild calm night here as the low pressure system formed overhead. See wrap around rain has formed and tilting into Geelong et al now. This will pull back into gippsland very soon.

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#1334639 - 12/07/2015 08:36 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Morning guys,its looking like the coldest air is going to wrap up around us now(like u are hinting at petros)getting colder here
now,sitting on 3.9c and steady rain,might be a little sleet in it.
could be a cold old day and id say baw baw should do well now:)

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#1334640 - 12/07/2015 08:42 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Looking like a nice little injection of cold air coming up around western tas tommoz ,which actually could be colder and wetter than today lol

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#1334642 - 12/07/2015 08:46 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1766
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Good views of MtWell. now, some cloudless sky over the GDR in places, the snow overnight there would be average for falls so far this year, I wouldn't say it got as low as some others though.

Not pic worthy yet.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1334645 - 12/07/2015 08:52 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 5.0C, currently 5.4C with light rain starting up. The main rainband is coming up from the south, gonna be a cold, wet day! smile

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#1334650 - 12/07/2015 09:04 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
avalon Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/07/2007
Posts: 1541
Loc: Mt Macedon Vic 870m elev
I'm still underwhelmed!
We got down to -0.1C overnight, it was clear when I got up at 6am but now we are sitting in fog which is normal.
No wind, no rain, no snow and not really colder than any other July day at Mt Macedon.

Is anyone else out there getting anything interesting?

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#1334654 - 12/07/2015 09:19 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
Skywalker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/12/2007
Posts: 264
Loc: Burnside Heights/Sunshine West...
Light showers begining to fall here. Nothing terribly exciting to report other than that.

Congratulation to the media for overhyping yet another system.

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#1334656 - 12/07/2015 09:23 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1766
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
A waiting game avalon, can't rush nature, just try and live in it and interpret its vagaries....bit D&M this early on a Sunday, sorry...lol.

A cold week ahead, Access has us 544 or less the whole time, here - well I'm waiting for the white horizon we look at from the house.

ps If still underwhelmed watch the commercial TV stations, they will hype it again and again >>>>>

I was typing my reply while skywalker was posting, how's that ! crazy


Edited by samboz (12/07/2015 09:25)
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1334658 - 12/07/2015 09:33 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
edgeofthestorm Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 16/02/2012
Posts: 16
Loc: Warragul, Vic
Very underwhelming here in Warragul too, we had colder nights/mornings early last month.

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#1334661 - 12/07/2015 09:43 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Snow level prob came down to about 1000m imo

still 4c here and low cloud has rolled in!!also wind
has picked right up.

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#1334664 - 12/07/2015 09:47 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
The rainband entering Melbourne arrived in Belgrave just after 9am. Could be my coldest day since I began weather records, 5.7C at the last check! Brrr... eek crazy

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#1334668 - 12/07/2015 09:54 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6514
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Baro steady on 1004 hPa here, calm, cold and low cloud. Everything points to rain, not good for 2nd round of Royal Maffra Golf championships today.

.....and if AccR is correct, it wont be long before SSE'ly rain develops out over our way, leading to a wet'n'windy night:

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#1334670 - 12/07/2015 10:00 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
All the best out there today petros!lol

Rain getting a little heavier,still 4c

Baw baw getting smashed with snow at present according to
the village cam

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#1334674 - 12/07/2015 10:08 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1553
Loc: Orange, NSW
Man that wind is icy, went outside to check the gauge and had about 15kph winds blowing from the south. The wind chill was almost painful on the eye, haven't felt that in a while. Watching this band approach with anticipation wink Our temps are way too high for it to fall as snow, sitting at 5.2c, but you never know when you've got wind as icy cold as that hanging around.
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#1334676 - 12/07/2015 10:11 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1766
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
The light improved enough to get a (average quality) pic of our "wannabe" horizon with Mt Wellington (1630m) about 1/3rd of the way in from the right.

After a heavy snow fall the ridge is solid white.

See what tomorrow brings.

Here, no wind, 8C, the sky is quite light to the N.

_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1334677 - 12/07/2015 10:17 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
Yowie Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/03/2004
Posts: 85
Loc: Hastings, VIC (but from Dapto ...
Yes, its cold and miserable outside, but doesn't seem significantly colder than "normal" for this time of year in Melbourne. In my non-expert opinion, this is simply another cold front coming through in winter, no big deal.

Perhaps it had more of an impact in NSW?

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#1334678 - 12/07/2015 10:20 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
avalon Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/07/2007
Posts: 1541
Loc: Mt Macedon Vic 870m elev
Do you think that band will make it to us Davidm?
It's still only 1C here. So snow is a possibility if we get a band.
No wind here, none overnight or yesterday, it's been oddly calm for such a big weather event.

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#1334679 - 12/07/2015 10:23 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
avalon Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/07/2007
Posts: 1541
Loc: Mt Macedon Vic 870m elev
From what I've seen on another forum some good snow has fallen in Orange NSW at 865m but nothing like they were expecting at lower levels.
Oberon at 1100m had just a light cover.
Family at Portland and Lithgow (both 950m) have had a smattering.
No reports of snow to 600m as forecast


Edited by avalon (12/07/2015 10:24)

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#1334680 - 12/07/2015 10:25 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1553
Loc: Orange, NSW
I'd say it will avalon... day isn't over up there yet! grin

Yowie - that's mostly due to the cold air in the 500hPa layer, if you check out this map, you can see that low pressure system is throwing all the cold air up north and missing us. According to some of the boffins on one of the other forums, for us to get a good hit from one of these systems the low needs to come up further east, past Melbourne. This one cross around the Vic/SA border, so slid up along our west side.
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#1334685 - 12/07/2015 10:31 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
With your altitude avalon,id say your def still in with a chance of some good snow. That rain band looks not far from u now?

still 4.1c here,windy and we still shrouded in fog!Only very light rain now

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#1334687 - 12/07/2015 10:36 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
avalon Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/07/2007
Posts: 1541
Loc: Mt Macedon Vic 870m elev
I hope we get something. Even some rain would be very welcome. We are way down on our YTD average

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#1334691 - 12/07/2015 10:41 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Looking at the models(gfs & access)Imo i think theres more chance for lower level snow tommoz or tommoz night

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#1334694 - 12/07/2015 10:45 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
avalon Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/07/2007
Posts: 1541
Loc: Mt Macedon Vic 870m elev
It's just started to rain here.
1.8C

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#1334711 - 12/07/2015 11:20 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: avalon]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1553
Loc: Orange, NSW
Originally Posted By: avalon
It's just started to rain here.
1.8C


Shame - looks like these don't have the cooling force that snow showers usually do. Has been steady light rain since it hit here and not much drop in temp... hovering at 5.5c.
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#1334721 - 12/07/2015 11:49 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
avalon Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/07/2007
Posts: 1541
Loc: Mt Macedon Vic 870m elev
Yep it's 2.7C here now. Nothing unusual at al about that for a wet July day.
This whole system for me has come in far warmer than was predicted a couple of days ago.

I wish the 20million people that are currently driving up and down mount Macedon rd had've known that before they eft home!

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#1334724 - 12/07/2015 12:06 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2248
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Low moved far NE Victoria to NSW so hope more cold air from S/SW.
Had 25mm rain from Yesterday to 9am and temp only 8.2c at 12pm
Next upper low on Wednesday looks weaker.

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#1334725 - 12/07/2015 12:12 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Noticed mt dandey down to 2.8c/could be sleet up there?

We sit on 4.1c

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#1334727 - 12/07/2015 12:13 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2248
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
avalon where is Mt Macedon weather station located thanks

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#1334730 - 12/07/2015 12:26 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
Remy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/02/2015
Posts: 199
Loc: Mulgrave (SE Suburbs), Melbour...
Rain is starting to get a bit heavy here. Currently 6.8C

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#1334732 - 12/07/2015 12:35 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6514
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Still nothing to report here, sitting under the developing ECL pivot, rain Bairnsdale and E, and from Traralgon to W.

But the Bass Coast "blob" has formed (its thundery too), if that wraps back into Gippsland over coming hours we will get rain that no one out this way wants at this time of the year and current state of dampness.



Edited by Petros (12/07/2015 12:40)

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#1334740 - 12/07/2015 13:09 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2248
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Temperature is lowing from 8.2c to 7.6 to 1pm had 25mm rain

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#1334741 - 12/07/2015 13:13 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2248
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Heard from Facebook bendigo friends going to Mt Macedon have look and there is rain on radar south of Melbourne moving into North may chance snow to ranges.

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#1334744 - 12/07/2015 13:15 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
Greg A Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 24/03/2008
Posts: 12
Loc: Wangaratta, Vic
Drove up to Whitlands this morning (800m+ at the HT powerlines) and sadly nothing to report in the way of snow. Interestingly just a few very minor blobs settled on the side of the road further down...must have had a flurry and then washed almost all of it away with rain.

All very quiet here in Wang, no wind and just scattered clouds, a typical winters day really. Nice lot of rain pushing up from Melbourne but not heading our way.

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#1334770 - 12/07/2015 14:11 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
avalon Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/07/2007
Posts: 1541
Loc: Mt Macedon Vic 870m elev
there is no snow at Mt macedon, just rain fog and about 20 million people in cars thinking they are going to see some snow.

CA im not sure of where the weatherstion is located. its only a rainfall one, they dont record temps up here which is a shame because it is one of the more interesting places around the outer melbourne area

its pouring hereat the mo and its 3C

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#1334775 - 12/07/2015 14:22 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2248
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thank You Avalon i knew maybe not, let public have look for nothing.Temp here now 7.9 at 2.20pm

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#1334786 - 12/07/2015 15:01 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
No snow or sleet at my end here in Belgrave, but it is cold and wet! Been raining almost non-stop since 9am (10.5mm since then), and more to come for at least another few hours (if not longer) according to the Melbourne radar. smile

Unless it manages to reach 8.9C or higher, it'll be my coldest day for the year to date! 6.8C atm! eek

The clouds are very low, almost like a fog! Oh and there's a bit of minor flooding around the place. smile

No real let-up in the cold, wet weather for until at least next weekend at this stage, with another frontal system to come through mid-week, and then a westerly airstream (with possible further embedded cold fronts) to follow. Not that I'm complaining, hate the wintry temperatures but love the thought of more rainfall! smile

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#1334789 - 12/07/2015 15:27 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6514
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Rain set in here 15 mins ago

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#1334798 - 12/07/2015 16:03 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1553
Loc: Orange, NSW
Well that was fun... went to check the rain gauge and got soaked through the "waterproof" gear. Can confirm Hat Lift Index is at an 11.

Definitely the best soaking we've had in a long time.

Rain sitting at about 12.5mm so far, and no end in sight grin
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#1334815 - 12/07/2015 17:11 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6514
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Only accumulated a tad over 2mm since my 15:27 post, but its calm, cold (9c) and steady light rain here. Nice to see rain up in the Melb catchments today.

Its taking a while for the ECL to organise into a single LLC, so remained calm here today because we are sitting fair between the "00's" of the 1006 hPa centre marked on the MSLP chart below:


As the system organised and moves away, the SSE'ly will set into Gippsland over coming hours.

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#1334825 - 12/07/2015 17:38 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
Remy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/02/2015
Posts: 199
Loc: Mulgrave (SE Suburbs), Melbour...
At 22.8mm here after most of the rain has moved north now.

Like many I felt underwhelmed by this system but the rain was a good way to finish it off. smile

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#1334826 - 12/07/2015 17:39 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1553
Loc: Orange, NSW
Wind is picking up again, have gotten a few of the slightly scary gusts where you can hear the whole house flexing.

Rain just now seems to be letting up a bit after hours of torrential downpour. This must be what it's normally like living in your part of the land eh Petros? grin

Looking at radar it seems like it might clear here soon... shame, I was getting used to it!
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#1334838 - 12/07/2015 18:18 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: davidm]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6514
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: davidm
Wind is picking up again, have gotten a few of the slightly scary gusts where you can hear the whole house flexing.

Rain just now seems to be letting up a bit after hours of torrential downpour. This must be what it's normally like living in your part of the land eh Petros? grin



Book it down to your first experience of a (mild) east coast low DavidM smile

Still calm out this way, rain backed off to drizzle patches, the SSE'ly wind I've been advising for Gippy still not morphed into reality.

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#1334839 - 12/07/2015 18:20 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Not my coldest day on record (ah well), but it seemed like it was gonna be that way! Currently 9.3C. smile

Picked up 22.1mm of rain since 9am, bringing the monthly total to 31.9mm. The last time I received 20mm or more in 24 hours was way back on May 10th! Had some surprise heavy showers behind the initial rain area over the past hour, and more rain coming in from the southeast. Peak rainfall rate being 29mm/hr. smile

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#1334840 - 12/07/2015 18:21 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 580
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Steady, at times quite heavy, rain. Wind picking up and somewhat gusty. Thunder rumbles in the background.

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#1334864 - 12/07/2015 19:45 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: Petros]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1553
Loc: Orange, NSW
Originally Posted By: Petros
Book it down to your first experience of a (mild) east coast low DavidM smile


I've had ECLs in Sydney, Central Coast, even had the effects of big one when I was in Bathurst (the one that gave us some decent flooding). This right here is very comparable.

The 'rain train' that I was under for most of the day brings back some good memories from the coast grin

Wind tonight is very close to the record gust on this station - 84.6kph is the all time record (from its one year of life), and I saw a few >80 numbers flash up in the past hour. Oddly, these don't seem to actually be recording in the upload to Wunderground. I think it just captures the gust at the time of sending data, so the only thing I have to go on here is that all-time record and watching the numbers like a hawk.

While I type it's been fairly consistently going above 60kph gusts, and a few above 70kph. I'll be surprised if the road is clear in the morning.
_________________________
Wunderground | davidm.com.au

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#1334883 - 12/07/2015 20:43 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1766
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Had some solid rain in the last 2 hours, prob 1/2" if similiar to Mt Moornapa obs.

Rain like this is what's needed to put a good snow coating on our closer high points - if it's cold enough up there !

edit- Omeo on 0.0C since 1930 and close to that since 1800 with 1.8mm, could be white there in the AM.


Edited by samboz (12/07/2015 20:50)
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1334897 - 12/07/2015 22:58 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1553
Loc: Orange, NSW
It's still coming down out there, sounds pretty heavy at times but that might be the wind making it sound better than it really is. The wireless weather station gave up recording rain half way through the day, so will have to wait until the morning to get final figures.

Temp is a bit odd tonight, hardly any variation at all after a 2c rise just before sunset.
_________________________
Wunderground | davidm.com.au

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#1334902 - 13/07/2015 00:08 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My high for yesterday was 10.0C, at the rather odd time of about 11:30pm!! crazy

Still just under 10C atm. Humidity is at 98%, dew point 10C, and barometric pressure reading 1007hPa. Also had ad a bit of wind over the past hour. Peak gust was about 17km/h. smile

Rainfall total since 9am is 24.2mm. Very happy about that! grin

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#1334916 - 13/07/2015 07:31 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1766
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Here in the Riviera it's a ridiculous 11C, checked two thermometers, one is higher than that! Gauge now has total 15mm which shows an additional 10mm since yesterday morn.

Glimpse of MtWELL 10 min ago, can see areas of white through the cloud/fog up there. Slight breeze.

Another Winter day.

MtBawBaw - 75mm, right there dooga smile


Edited by samboz (13/07/2015 07:38)
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1334920 - 13/07/2015 07:54 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
stormygirl Offline
Weather Babe and Moderator

Registered: 21/12/2004
Posts: 4036
Loc: Melbourne, SE Burbs
Crazy busy weekend for me, not a chance to do any weather-watching/chasing at all, unfortunately, otherwise I would have made the trip up to Donna.

I can confirm just under 27mm of rain yesterday, though smile smile
_________________________

2009 total: 646.4mm
2010 total: 813.5mm
2011 total: 1071.25
2012 YTD: 509.25mm (June)


www.stormygirl.net


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#1334936 - 13/07/2015 09:29 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1553
Loc: Orange, NSW
22.7mm here as the total. Given the exposure of the rain bucket to southerly winds (it has line of sight to Melbourne), and the radar returns from the day, I'd say that's an underreport.

I'm in the darker part of the 25-50mm zone here:

_________________________
Wunderground | davidm.com.au

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#1334948 - 13/07/2015 11:36 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
I tipped out 13mm at tea last night,wouldnt have had to much more overnight.

Weird things going on with the temps during yesterday and today!
Yesterday it sat on 4-5c all day,then once we got to about 5pm the temp started rising with the rain and wind to finally stop at 8.6c at about 11pm last night! Then it 7.5c when at 7am this morning and has dropped further to 6.3c now!

The next front coming up this arvo should give us another round of rain,hail and cold temps!The southerly fetch on this one is coming from along way south,so wouldnt be suprised if its a little colder than forecast?

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#1334950 - 13/07/2015 11:50 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
avalon Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/07/2007
Posts: 1541
Loc: Mt Macedon Vic 870m elev
I think you are right Doogasnow.
The next couple of days are going to be colder at my place for sure than the last two days.
I reckon a bit of snow is on the cards tomorrow.
It feels much colder now than it did on the weekend.

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#1334998 - 13/07/2015 18:01 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6514
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Great reports all.

A solid rainy period last evening provided another 5.5mm taking us to 10.5mm for this event so far (rain band not far away will be the "last hurrah" as Dooga has just noted. Great snow (400mm+?) and minor flooding Cann and Genoa Rivers. A decent winter event not quite finished yet.

....now to the rapidly approaching low roaring up from deep below the bight! - .... on the new thread.

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#1335029 - 13/07/2015 20:59 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 7.6C (at around 10am, mind you - it was still stuck around 10C when I left for work at Dandenong around 8am), peaked at 12.5C just before midday, currently around 9C. smile

Picked up an additional 3.2mm of rain between midnight and 7am, bringing the total to 27.4mm. smile

It was drizzling when I left for work, at times heavily. But the cloud and showers cleared before lunchtime, and we had some sunshine! Still, the wind made it feel most unpleasant! poke

Clouds thickened up and much heavier showers resumed by mid-afternoon (courtesy of the trough following on the heals of the main storm moving away into the Pacific). At times it was very dark, and the clouds were low, dense and fast-moving; the rain was torrential in bursts as well, especially during and after the trip home after 5pm! Picked up 9.5mm at the last check. smile

Edit: the bulk of the second burst of rain cleared some time ago, but another string of heavy showers is inching its way towards Belgrave from the west! smile

Edit: also should mention I saw localised flooding around the Dandenong area, with Dandenong Creek up a fair bit. smile


Edited by aussiestormfreak (13/07/2015 21:06)

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#1335032 - 13/07/2015 21:07 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1766
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Good to see lots of input from not so regular posters, makes for interesting threads, THANKS grin
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1335037 - 13/07/2015 21:21 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
Remy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/02/2015
Posts: 199
Loc: Mulgrave (SE Suburbs), Melbour...
It's been wild here with 18.6mm so far this evening. Add that to yesterday's 23.0mm and that's 41.6mm over two days...more than double the total amount of 19.4mm that fell for all of June. grin

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#1335050 - 13/07/2015 22:44 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
stormygirl Offline
Weather Babe and Moderator

Registered: 21/12/2004
Posts: 4036
Loc: Melbourne, SE Burbs
A further 13mm today (began late this arvo), and it's still raining!

Just ticked over 50mm for the month. smile
_________________________

2009 total: 646.4mm
2010 total: 813.5mm
2011 total: 1071.25
2012 YTD: 509.25mm (June)


www.stormygirl.net


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#1335080 - 14/07/2015 08:36 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 5.4C, barely 6C at the time I left for work around 8am! Overcast with light showers too! Brrr... eek

Picked up 12.6mm of rain in the last 24 hours, which brings the monthly total to just shy of 50mm!! grin

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#1335081 - 14/07/2015 08:52 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
avalon Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/07/2007
Posts: 1541
Loc: Mt Macedon Vic 870m elev
Last night the weather man on ABC said snow today in western vic to 500m and 700m elsewhere across the state.
A cold day on the way for me. We hit -0.6C at 7am under a cloudy sky.
That is cold!
http://m.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria/Mount_Macedon~2159230/


Edited by avalon (14/07/2015 08:53)

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#1335108 - 14/07/2015 13:21 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: avalon]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Originally Posted By: avalon
Last night the weather man on ABC said snow today in western vic to 500m and 700m elsewhere across the state.
A cold day on the way for me. We hit -0.6C at 7am under a cloudy sky.
That is cold!
http://m.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria/Mount_Macedon~2159230/


Yes you should see some snow this arvo/tonight id think?

Damn cold up here today,sitting on 5.5c currently after a low of 3c.

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#1335109 - 14/07/2015 13:22 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Hopefully the coldest air travels a little more east than predicted??

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#1335112 - 14/07/2015 13:32 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
avalon Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/07/2007
Posts: 1541
Loc: Mt Macedon Vic 870m elev
It's still only 2.8C at Trentham at 700m
That means my place at 870m would be around 1.5C now.
Coldest day of the year.

I can see the mountain from where I work at Macedon and it's looking very wintry up there today.

Hopefully a bit of snow later.

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#1335116 - 14/07/2015 13:51 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
There is a band coming through and it looks like its about to impact the macedon/trentham area as we speak?
Could turn to snow straight up through there going off those temps smile

5.6c here

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#1335118 - 14/07/2015 14:37 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
BlueyZarsoff Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/07/2015
Posts: 111
Loc: Fountain Lakes (Sth East Melb)
Hi all, another long time watcher & first time poster.
Luv the all the posts & hope to give my 2 bobs worth .

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#1335121 - 14/07/2015 14:54 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
Remy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/02/2015
Posts: 199
Loc: Mulgrave (SE Suburbs), Melbour...
Hey there BlueyZarsoff. Hope you enjoy the forums smile

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#1335125 - 14/07/2015 15:03 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2248
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks like cold air flow over SE Australia.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-214.40,-35.27,787


Edited by chasers addict (14/07/2015 15:07)

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#1335131 - 14/07/2015 15:37 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1553
Loc: Orange, NSW
4c here, humidity is nice and low at 59% so if we got a bit more of a temp drop and some showers we could definitely see snow.

Snow calculator says melting temp is 2.9c at that rate!


Edited by davidm (14/07/2015 15:39)
_________________________
Wunderground | davidm.com.au

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#1335133 - 14/07/2015 15:43 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
avalon Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/07/2007
Posts: 1541
Loc: Mt Macedon Vic 870m elev
A pretty little settled snowfall at Mount Macedon since about 2pm.
Not heaps but much better than the snowzilla system last weekend smile
Cold too, it dropped to zero and it's now 0.5C
Snow was falling to around 750m

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#1335135 - 14/07/2015 15:56 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
avalon Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/07/2007
Posts: 1541
Loc: Mt Macedon Vic 870m elev
And sleet along the Calder freeway between Macedon and Carlsruhe at about 550 to 600m asl

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#1335136 - 14/07/2015 15:57 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: BlueyZarsoff]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5137
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: BlueyZarsoff
Hi all, another long time watcher & first time poster.
Luv the all the posts & hope to give my 2 bobs worth .


Welcome Bluey.
How are you brothers - Terry and Bernie?

Homer

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#1335137 - 14/07/2015 16:02 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 843
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Coldest day of the year for us if things stay as they are, currently 6.7C with a top of 9.2 - Equal lowest max temp for my station (2 years)


Edited by logansi (14/07/2015 16:03)
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1335138 - 14/07/2015 16:12 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Wow that snow line is dropping quick smart once the rain hits!
This system is alot colder that the 'vortex' lol

5.8c here now and awiating rain smile

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#1335140 - 14/07/2015 16:14 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
I also heard its sleeting up at ferny creek mount dandey

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#1335143 - 14/07/2015 16:23 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
craigp Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/07/2015
Posts: 4
Loc: bayswater,vic,aus
Hi all my first post ,currently 6.3 in bayswater

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#1335144 - 14/07/2015 16:26 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 580
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Welcome Bluey. Welcome Craigp.

Dull, cold 9C. Fully overcast. No wind. Interesting conditions developing for central region. Later for west Gippsland Doogasnow?

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#1335146 - 14/07/2015 16:35 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1553
Loc: Orange, NSW
Cloud is at ground level... well, ground level here on top of the hill. Humidity is magically staying at 64%... not sure how that's possible when it's surrounded by fog/cloud. Temp slowly edging down, now 3.9c. If this next batch of rain can drop the temps I'm in for a good chance.
_________________________
Wunderground | davidm.com.au

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#1335149 - 14/07/2015 17:08 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
avalon Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/07/2007
Posts: 1541
Loc: Mt Macedon Vic 870m elev
Have you seen the radar Davidm , there is a huge blob heading our way. It's currently spitting snow here and 1C

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#1335151 - 14/07/2015 17:27 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
avalon Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/07/2007
Posts: 1541
Loc: Mt Macedon Vic 870m elev
Really nice heavy snow now

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#1335153 - 14/07/2015 17:32 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2248
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Heavy fine showers all day of 6.2c at 5.30pm

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#1335155 - 14/07/2015 17:55 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2248
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
The cold upper low eye in South Ocean looks like big shovel push cold blast cells inland SE Australia. Between Adelaide to NW Tasmania, looks like will travel right over Victoria to NSW as far of Broken Hill NSW.


Edited by chasers addict (14/07/2015 18:05)

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#1335158 - 14/07/2015 18:04 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 580
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Conditions at Kilmore Gap would not encourage an evening stroll: 2.8C, Nthly gusting to 56kph, apparent temp = -7.1C

Though it's about +7C here with no wind, it feels awfully cold with flat cloud cover. Much too warm for snow but it sure feels like it!

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#1335167 - 14/07/2015 18:18 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1553
Loc: Orange, NSW
Avalon, you guys are right in the firing line! Must be amazing up there right now. Temp is still too high down here but close enough that it could drop down to the right levels if the rain keeps up. Humidity is right up to 91% so we'll need a lot colder to get flakes, still 3.8c.

Looks like the biggest bit of the rain is now sliding to the south, but the colder showers are incoming, and they bring the better chance of snow.
_________________________
Wunderground | davidm.com.au

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#1335192 - 14/07/2015 20:21 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
avalon Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/07/2007
Posts: 1541
Loc: Mt Macedon Vic 870m elev
Well I don't get it! It's pouring rain here and 0.8C
I've seen it snow here at 3C
So why am I getting rain now? Grrrrr!

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#1335195 - 14/07/2015 20:38 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
Snowfreak Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/07/2015
Posts: 13
Loc: 430m asl, Ferny Creek, Victori...
temp rising a bit here in Ferny Creek sadly, 2.9c here now

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#1335197 - 14/07/2015 20:54 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: avalon]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1553
Loc: Orange, NSW
Originally Posted By: avalon
Well I don't get it! It's pouring rain here and 0.8C
I've seen it snow here at 3C
So why am I getting rain now? Grrrrr!


Humidity too high maybe?

Rain has just started again, we're at 3.7c and 99% humidity. One that I haven't seen with this system so far is those rapid drops in temps right after a shower comes through - the ones that drop your temp by 1c, even 2c, and then turn to snow. Just hasn't been anything like that so far. The stuff over in SA looks like it could do that, hopefully it doesn't die out on the trip over land.
_________________________
Wunderground | davidm.com.au

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#1335205 - 14/07/2015 21:19 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
Snowfreak Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/07/2015
Posts: 13
Loc: 430m asl, Ferny Creek, Victori...
Here is a snow probability calculator im not sure how accurate it is. Right now it's 2.9c in Ferny Creek, and 90% humidity, 0% chance of snow according to the calculator. frown
http://www.sciencebits.com/SnowProbCalc?calc=yes

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#1335209 - 14/07/2015 21:30 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
avalon Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/07/2007
Posts: 1541
Loc: Mt Macedon Vic 870m elev
It's snowing again now, down to an even 0.0C now

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#1335215 - 14/07/2015 21:55 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17491
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Hamilton 1.5C atm with showers moving through... Have to be chance of snow on the nearby hills down there in the SW.....??

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#1335229 - 14/07/2015 23:01 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
avalon Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/07/2007
Posts: 1541
Loc: Mt Macedon Vic 870m elev
We ended up with quite a decent fall
Of snow after all . Just needed the temp
To drop below zero and it started to build up
Nicely.
So many sightseers out on the mountain road at this time of the night. We do they all come from?

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#1335260 - 15/07/2015 08:52 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1250
Loc: toowoomba
Apparently it's snowing in Hamilton(western vic) only 200mtrs high.

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#1335262 - 15/07/2015 09:00 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
avalon Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/07/2007
Posts: 1541
Loc: Mt Macedon Vic 870m elev
The snow at mount Macedon this morning was only settled as low as 800m
I was expecting it to be a good bit lower than that considering the forecast.
Still a nice cover out there, a frost on top of it over night has kept everything frozen.

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#1335268 - 15/07/2015 09:51 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: BlueyZarsoff]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1766
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Originally Posted By: BlueyZarsoff
Hi all, another long time watcher & first time poster.
Luv the all the posts & hope to give my 2 bobs worth .


Welcome bluey, big family wink
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1335270 - 15/07/2015 10:02 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
BlueyZarsoff Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/07/2015
Posts: 111
Loc: Fountain Lakes (Sth East Melb)
Thx samboz & others .

Another 4mm in the Nylex

My July total now at 47mm

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#1335286 - 15/07/2015 12:55 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2248
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Clouds very stable here due eye of low

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#1335301 - 15/07/2015 15:07 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
craigp Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/07/2015
Posts: 4
Loc: bayswater,vic,aus
Currently 9.6 in Bayswater light SE wind Pressure Steady at 1019.3 light showers coming in from the east.

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#1335315 - 15/07/2015 16:39 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: Homer]
BlueyZarsoff Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/07/2015
Posts: 111
Loc: Fountain Lakes (Sth East Melb)
Hi Homer , you forgot Rudolph (Rudi) smirk

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#1427376 - 04/07/2017 16:42 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1766
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
The good ol' days, some excitement a while back......... grin
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1427386 - 04/07/2017 17:57 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
😂😂 I'd do anything for more of the above
Excitement to even half embrace us for the
Remainder of this winter😨

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#1427397 - 04/07/2017 19:04 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1766
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
What's in a year dooga' - grin

Some handy rain back then, almost Winter like !
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1427450 - 05/07/2017 11:15 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2248
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thanks new tread as had 23mm rain to 9am Today wonderful and warmer night no frost.

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#1427467 - 05/07/2017 16:19 Re: Vic - Cold system coming thru. - Best yet ? July 10th - 14th [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1766
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
This is an oldie ca, resurrected from July 2015 to keep our hopes up...

23mm, beautiful... grin
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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