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#1333774 - 08/07/2015 09:09 SA - Cold - Storms/Showers - Snow - Front - Low 9th-13th July 2015
Olaf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 1851
Loc: Noarlunga, SA
Thread time kiddies....

Trough wafts in tomorrow arvo/evening basically stalling over us with showers developing mostly after dark at this stage with the chance of a few bolts, but any thundery activity looks to be either south or north of Adelaide at this stage (as per usual).

From there things get a little complicated but basically a strong front to come through late Friday night with a burst of showers followed by a very cold day Saturday with showers & hail locally. Snow seems a very slim chance but you can grasp that tiny thread of hope if you wish grin

Rainfall totals 10-30mm across central areas with pockets of higher falls especially over the ranges.

The top dogs(TS,TH) are welcome to add to my thoughts smile

** Watch mid next week with interest (14th-16th), GFS & EC both going for another Low to nudge up over us..
_________________________
�I�d keep playing. I don�t think the heavy stuff�s gonna come down for quite awhile.� Bill Murray

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#1333805 - 08/07/2015 12:53 Re: SA - Cold - Storms/Showers - Snow - Front - Low 9th-13th July 2015 [Re: Olaf]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1660
Loc: Bridgewater
10-36mm forecast for the weekend for me with a max of 6 degrees

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#1333830 - 08/07/2015 16:14 Re: SA - Cold - Storms/Showers - Snow - Front - Low 9th-13th July 2015 [Re: Olaf]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2083
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Well hump my chickens and paint me pink looks like the SE is going to get some decent severe weather activity over the weekend after a long storm drought but just how much of a spanking we get is yet to be seen

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#1333866 - 08/07/2015 20:29 Re: SA - Cold - Storms/Showers - Snow - Front - Low 9th-13th July 2015 [Re: Olaf]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3928
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
well starve the lizards if it aint the 'ol RS.
how's it goin' dude.
looks like we're all gunna get a right royal spanking.
the initial prefrontal rainband will come through fri.
night/sat. morn. and should deliver quite a reasonable
ntree.
the best part will be the marrow snapping coldpool that
comes through saturday. i mean seriously, look at the
tot's, this is the most anal bad attitude cold pool i've
seen in a long time. other than the possibility of snow
in the high spots the likleyhood of some roaring hailstoms
coming from some mongeral coldies that will be so crisp
you'll be able to hear them go snap, crackle and pop as
they go past will be better than even.
things are gunna be bad here but relly bad in the eastern
states especially vic. and the high country. with the run
of comparativly "mild" weather lately i'd be starting to
issue warnings for people who are in the firing line of
bad weather but not so good at keeping their finger on
the weather pulse.
this one's going to almost be good enough to chase.

top dog eh, Olaf,
well woofity woof woof to you too mate. wink
old dog maybe, not sure about the top.

TH

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#1333885 - 08/07/2015 22:47 Re: SA - Cold - Storms/Showers - Snow - Front - Low 9th-13th July 2015 [Re: Olaf]
Olaf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 1851
Loc: Noarlunga, SA
Let it snow, Let it snow, Let it snow....

_________________________
�I�d keep playing. I don�t think the heavy stuff�s gonna come down for quite awhile.� Bill Murray

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#1333892 - 08/07/2015 23:04 Re: SA - Cold - Storms/Showers - Snow - Front - Low 9th-13th July 2015 [Re: Olaf]
Olaf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 1851
Loc: Noarlunga, SA
New investment idea...

_________________________
�I�d keep playing. I don�t think the heavy stuff�s gonna come down for quite awhile.� Bill Murray

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#1333900 - 08/07/2015 23:44 Re: SA - Cold - Storms/Showers - Snow - Front - Low 9th-13th July 2015 [Re: Olaf]
Bergasms Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2010
Posts: 364
Loc: South Plympton, Adelaide, Aus
So basically, If I am looking to introduce the little one to snow this weekend, the aim should be to be on lofty when a coldie nails it? I presume that is about the only chance right? Or possibly heading to mt crawford forest in the higher parts?


Edited by berga1987 (08/07/2015 23:44)
_________________________
I wish Mt Lofty was more lofty, another 2km or so would suffice.

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#1333905 - 09/07/2015 00:46 Re: SA - Cold - Storms/Showers - Snow - Front - Low 9th-13th July 2015 [Re: Bergasms]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 729
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Originally Posted By: berga1987
If I am looking to introduce the little one to snow this weekend


Mt Bryan in the Mid-North typically seems to do pretty well - not quite so accessible though..

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#1333908 - 09/07/2015 06:22 Re: SA - Cold - Storms/Showers - Snow - Front - Low 9th-13th July 2015 [Re: Olaf]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3928
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
nice one Olaf,
certainly gunna be cold up there then, but the problem is
that's at 925mb at 3:30am well after the cold pool has gone
and there are places in the mid north and s.e. at 1000mb
that are going to be going below that, the time frame window
of opportunity to be looked at is an 8hr period between 4am
to midday saturday with max occurring 6am to 10am.
i really do have to take a step back at the moment from my
satatement about snap crackle and pop coldies, this setup
coming up after the front is forecast 80-100% middle cloud
which is slabover before sunrise and breaking down to 40-60%
by sat arvo.
temps at 925mb for the window frame are around 4-5, with my
lack of experience of close analysis of winter setups i'm
probably being nieve but i would'nt dispair at that because
hopefully the rain and especially hail cores will be hp enough
to drag colder upper air down to drop the temp enough for
follow up or back edge showers to snow.
for want of a better analagy the software looks ok it just needs
the hardware in the right place at the right time for the best
chance of something to happen.
right or wrong that's my take on things, we'll see what happens
i 'spose, thought i might as well have a ramble here, bin up
since 4, not much else to do this time of the morn. other than
sleep and i'm done with that.
anyway, where's Tek, he's much better at this stuff than me.

btw,does anyone know which number on the number pad + Alt
turns the image on the second screen the right way up, i
accidentaly hit Alt+248 and turned the damn thing upside down.

TH
_________________________



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#1333909 - 09/07/2015 06:38 Re: SA - Cold - Storms/Showers - Snow - Front - Low 9th-13th July 2015 [Re: Olaf]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3928
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
ok that last bit is all good, just went into control panel, DOH.

while im here just as an adjunct to previous about taking a
step back from the snap crackle and pop coldie scenario, i
aint saying they aint going to happen, just taking a step
back from implying they are a foregone conclusion. just have
to check the satellite layout when the coldpool is on our
doorstep.

TH
_________________________



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#1333933 - 09/07/2015 10:27 Re: SA - Cold - Storms/Showers - Snow - Front - Low 9th-13th July 2015 [Re: Olaf]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17593
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
I'm here... I just don't think snow is as good a chance than what some people are saying.
Might be cold enough, but streams from the SW arent all that great, and when the most favourable time (Sunday morning?) it appears it also will have dried up considerably (certainly lacking inland penetration anyway)

One thing is for sure for me anyway, is that we have more a chance a storm tonight than snow on the weekend. Looking very good for overnight.

I'm also quite happy with the amount of rain we should get. Would be happy with about 30mm by Monday.

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#1333944 - 09/07/2015 11:27 Re: SA - Cold - Storms/Showers - Snow - Front - Low 9th-13th July 2015 [Re: Olaf]
Olaf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 1851
Loc: Noarlunga, SA
Yeah the wind off the gulf brings doubt into ones mind when one thinks of ones chances of snowfall on the Lofties.

Saturday morning simply will not be cold enough, unless multiple coldies pound the ranges...

Sunday morning is the best chance by far with stream showers over the ranges. If the wind swings slightly further to the SSW during this time it will increase the chance dramatically

*Just to be clear, regardless of what the temps are above 925mb(762metres), it needs to be "0" or below on the surface for it to snow, no if buts or maybes!

Looking forward to tonight Tim, and thanks for joining us grin


Edited by Olaf (09/07/2015 11:37)
_________________________
�I�d keep playing. I don�t think the heavy stuff�s gonna come down for quite awhile.� Bill Murray

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#1333975 - 09/07/2015 15:48 Re: SA - Cold - Storms/Showers - Snow - Front - Low 9th-13th July 2015 [Re: Olaf]
jack63 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/02/2010
Posts: 269
Loc: Mt Barker, Adelaide Hills
I remember very well Sunday the 18th August 1997 7am.....it snowed here in mount barker and it was 3 degrees at the time it happened. Doesn't have to be 0 degrees to snow. Just have to have the right conditions.

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#1333980 - 09/07/2015 16:46 Re: SA - Cold - Storms/Showers - Snow - Front - Low 9th-13th July 2015 [Re: Olaf]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1660
Loc: Bridgewater
looks like some rain 2nite

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#1333981 - 09/07/2015 16:54 Re: SA - Cold - Storms/Showers - Snow - Front - Low 9th-13th July 2015 [Re: Olaf]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3928
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
that's what i'm saying about the hardware being in place to drop
the local temp enough for it to happen, however, having said
that no matter what i think or say one way (even as devils
advocate) i'll always end up siding with Tek, he's far more
experienced in this situation and manages more bullseyes than
not.
anyway i'm not over enthused about snow, hp coldies with hail,
thunder and wind will do me just fine, and a bit of structural
photogenic eye candy wouldn't go astray either.

TH
_________________________



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#1333982 - 09/07/2015 17:00 Re: SA - Cold - Storms/Showers - Snow - Front - Low 9th-13th July 2015 [Re: jack63]
Olaf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 1851
Loc: Noarlunga, SA
Originally Posted By: jack63
I remember very well Sunday the 18th August 1997 7am.....it snowed here in mount barker and it was 3 degrees at the time it happened. Doesn't have to be 0 degrees to snow. Just have to have the right conditions.


Oh ok, got some photos?
_________________________
�I�d keep playing. I don�t think the heavy stuff�s gonna come down for quite awhile.� Bill Murray

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#1333983 - 09/07/2015 17:03 Re: SA - Cold - Storms/Showers - Snow - Front - Low 9th-13th July 2015 [Re: Olaf]
Olaf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 1851
Loc: Noarlunga, SA
The BOM finally onto the snow now, but strangely enough have gone for Saturday afternoon??.. not so sure about that, unless as I mentioned above, there are several coldies lined up like the dole queue at Mt Barker...

I still reckon the early hours of Sunday morning is a shot for snow, just need that wind to tend more SSW and we'll be in business grin
_________________________
�I�d keep playing. I don�t think the heavy stuff�s gonna come down for quite awhile.� Bill Murray

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#1333984 - 09/07/2015 17:07 Re: SA - Cold - Storms/Showers - Snow - Front - Low 9th-13th July 2015 [Re: Olaf]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17593
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
yer coldest air def later, and yer I'm worried it will be too dry/bad stream..

Here's meteye for saturday...
https://www.dropbox.com/s/5ye69qj89u0h7ic/MetEye%20110715.png

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#1333985 - 09/07/2015 17:16 Re: SA - Cold - Storms/Showers - Snow - Front - Low 9th-13th July 2015 [Re: Olaf]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17593
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
If I was going anywhere I'd be heading to the Mid North... looks more likely tbh... even BOM only mention the Mid North and FLinders for snow in the state forecast.

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#1333988 - 09/07/2015 17:32 Re: SA - Cold - Storms/Showers - Snow - Front - Low 9th-13th July 2015 [Re: Olaf]
Olaf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 1851
Loc: Noarlunga, SA
My apologies in my reference to it needs to be "0" or below to snow as it can be 1 or 2 degrees on the surface to snow if conditions are right
_________________________
�I�d keep playing. I don�t think the heavy stuff�s gonna come down for quite awhile.� Bill Murray

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