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#1334842 - 12/07/2015 18:36 Vic - cut-off low to emerge from the bight 15-18/7/15
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
I bet the media will ignore this follow-up event after all the who-ha over potential snow in the previous, anyhow, many of us out in Vic's soggy SE are watching this looming event with a bit of concern:


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#1334858 - 12/07/2015 19:17 Re: Vic - cut-off low to emerge from the bight 15-18/7/15 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1310
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Buckle in gippslanders its going to be on tonight!(especially petros/samboz & tb)

Be curious to see how this pans out temp wise? We are actually warming up now although the rain and wind is alot higher now.
Sat on 5c all day here and now its 8c lol??

Hopefully that deep southerly fetch that both thoe models are saying will develop by tommoz morning kick the temps down a little and then baw baw will cash in on all this precip.

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#1335000 - 13/07/2015 18:08 Re: Vic - cut-off low to emerge from the bight 15-18/7/15 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep a wild few hours not far away from us looming, but really is part of the current thread.

Talking about looming, here is the snotball racing up towards Vic from the Southern ocean to impact us starting tomorrow:


BOM have put a NE'ly trajectory on this, but the duty forecaster said not long ago it will take a similar path to last weekends system and go over Vic's head to impact NSW ranges. Like the existing system, an ECL will develop, but not as deep, nor located in a location to cause problematic rain for SE Vic like whats currently being experienced.

Snow skiers rejoice!

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#1335036 - 13/07/2015 21:19 Re: Vic - cut-off low to emerge from the bight 15-18/7/15 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Haha at the 'snotball!' grin

Anyway, yes it looks as though another intense winter storm is on the move; winds are set to veer back into a northerly airflow across Victoria tomorrow (with cloud increasing, and showers and possible thunderstorms spreading from the west during the day). Hail and low-level snowfalls (possibly down to 500m about the west) also anticipated! smile

Nice to have 'back-to-back' weather systems, instead of extended dry spells! Hoping for more heavy rainfall! smile

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#1335096 - 14/07/2015 11:40 Re: Vic - cut-off low to emerge from the bight 15-18/7/15 [Re: Petros]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1555
Loc: Orange, NSW
This one definitely looks good. Snow above 500m listed in the BoM forecast, but I'm not sure we'll have the moisture round here to deliver. Temps should certainly be low enough.
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#1335107 - 14/07/2015 13:19 Re: Vic - cut-off low to emerge from the bight 15-18/7/15 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1310
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Hopeully some of that 500mtr snowfall gets out to gippsland which would mean i could see some flurries here??

That a side,it looks nearly colder and better than the last event a few days back?

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#1335180 - 14/07/2015 19:01 Re: Vic - cut-off low to emerge from the bight 15-18/7/15 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
How high are you up dooga? IF snow is supposed to fall below 500M in Vic this evening (I haven't heard prog's of this from the BOM myself), ....then its not far away!!:


Here, 0.5mm in light rainy patches last night, cold SW'ly overcast day. After a possible mm or two here overnight, looking forward to a dry round of golf on the amazingly spared/playable RMGC in calmish conditions albeit with the ear warmers on tomorrow! frown

[edit] - a comparison of the actual (above) with GFS's prog's 2 1/2 days ago posted at the thread start (note its today's 10am prog back then), shows the quality of weather modelling nowadays.


Edited by Petros (14/07/2015 19:06)

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#1335185 - 14/07/2015 19:33 Re: Vic - cut-off low to emerge from the bight 15-18/7/15 [Re: Petros]
Snowfreak Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/07/2015
Posts: 13
Loc: 430m asl, Ferny Creek, Victori...
I heard from another weather forum, that there were snow flurries earlier on in Ferny Creek, we went up for a drive to MtD and ye I was too late, it was back to rain, I live in Ferny Creek, but i live in the lower part around 430m asl.


Edited by Snowfreak (14/07/2015 19:34)

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#1335188 - 14/07/2015 20:00 Re: Vic - cut-off low to emerge from the bight 15-18/7/15 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1310
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Petros - yeah i heard the bom talking about it on the radio(500mtr snow level)usually when the snow falls down to 500-600mtr we get flurries.Be touch and go if we see anything tonight? Need some precip to make it over this far first!

Currently 3.8c smile

Mt dandey is currently 2.5c so it would be fair to say anything that goes through there would have some wet flakes in it.

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#1335189 - 14/07/2015 20:13 Re: Vic - cut-off low to emerge from the bight 15-18/7/15 [Re: Petros]
Snowfreak Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/07/2015
Posts: 13
Loc: 430m asl, Ferny Creek, Victori...
It would be great to see a good snow event like 10th of August 2008, i was just looking at some pics from back then, I was living in Belgrave South at the time and that's only about 200m asl, but it was too wet for anything to settle, they were big snow flakes tho.

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#1335214 - 14/07/2015 21:49 Re: Vic - cut-off low to emerge from the bight 15-18/7/15 [Re: Petros]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
532 thickness line over sw VIC tonight , Currently freezingc at 875 m. BEN NEVIS..
Mt william -1.9 deg c at 9.30pm
Mortlake 2.1deg c at 130m !!
Casterton got to 1.8 deg c
http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/observations/vicall.shtml?ref=hdr

Hamilton 1.5 Deg C
Snow on grampians tonight perhaps?
BALLARAT 2.1 DEG C


Edited by crikey (14/07/2015 21:52)
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#1335218 - 14/07/2015 22:02 Re: Vic - cut-off low to emerge from the bight 15-18/7/15 [Re: Petros]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17593
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
I'd almost suggest snow on higher hills around Hamilton/Dunkeld... Grampians is a given.

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#1335219 - 14/07/2015 22:03 Re: Vic - cut-off low to emerge from the bight 15-18/7/15 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
That's where I reside, Belgrave South! smile

Yes I remember August 10th 2008 vividly. The snowflakes were large, but the ground was too warm and wet for them to settle. poke

Going back to this event...

It was F-F-FREEEEZING cold today!! eek

Peaked at only, yes only, 8.7C here today, my coldest maximum on record, and still barely 5C atm! The wind chill factor was 0C, and it certainly felt it! Gusts reached up to 25km/h. Very little sunshine, mostly cloudy with showers, locally heavy at times this afternoon! eek

Had 1.1mm of rain since 9am, bringing the July 2015 total to just over 50mm!! grin

The Dandenong Creek still appears to be in flood btw. smile

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#1335220 - 14/07/2015 22:04 Re: Vic - cut-off low to emerge from the bight 15-18/7/15 [Re: Petros]
avalon Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/07/2007
Posts: 1543
Loc: Mt Macedon Vic 870m elev
There is a nice snow cover here now.
It's -0.4C

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#1335224 - 14/07/2015 22:19 Re: Vic - cut-off low to emerge from the bight 15-18/7/15 [Re: Petros]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
Edenhope 2.2 deg c ( 155m) with coldie shower cells arriving
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#1335336 - 15/07/2015 18:19 Re: Vic - cut-off low to emerge from the bight 15-18/7/15 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 3.0C, top of 13.7C around noon, currently around 8C. Had 5.3mm of rain in the 24 hours to 9am btw! smile

This morning sure was nippy when I left for work, but no frost (or snow) to be seen. Only partly cloudy skies with patchy fog. Can't confirm if we had any further shower activity during the day. smile

While the afternoon was chilly, the increased sunshine and lack of strong wind made it feel more tolerable than yesterday! Lovely sunset on the way home from Dandenong as well! smile

Dandenong Creek is still up a fair bit. smile

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#1335339 - 15/07/2015 18:40 Re: Vic - cut-off low to emerge from the bight 15-18/7/15 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2652
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thanks to Low pressure Eye gave Bendigo stable clear fine sunshine afternoon as temperature from -2.2c 6.50am, 12pm 6.8c 3pm 8.4c 6pm 4.5c .


Edited by chasers addict (15/07/2015 18:41)

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#1335341 - 15/07/2015 19:03 Re: Vic - cut-off low to emerge from the bight 15-18/7/15 [Re: teckert]
Snowfreak Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/07/2015
Posts: 13
Loc: 430m asl, Ferny Creek, Victori...
snow in Hamilton today, im surprised it didn't snow here. While it snowed down to 400m in North East Victoria

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#1335342 - 15/07/2015 19:05 Re: Vic - cut-off low to emerge from the bight 15-18/7/15 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Similar here CA, calm, partly sunny day 14.5C, 1018 hPa (and rising). No sign of the developing/departing ECL here today! smile

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#1335349 - 15/07/2015 19:41 Re: Vic - cut-off low to emerge from the bight 15-18/7/15 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1310
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
We had an overnight low of 2.2c up here this morning with wet snow/sleet falling at about 3am this morning with a passing band of showers.Max today was 9c and its currently 6c smile

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