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#1335159 - 14/07/2015 18:10 NSW Cold Event- ECL with Rain & Tableland Snow, 15th to 18th July 2015
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
Well as others have said, it looks like another decent wintry cold event will be coming our way.

Starting tomorrow, it looks like there will be an injection of cold air in the wake of a cold front that can be seen on the satellite just hitting the SW corner of NSW (Hence this pre-frontal high cloud that we're getting).

By tomorrow night according to both AXS and GFS, a low will begin to form and on Thursday morning it will be off the coast as an ECL.

The interesting thing about this particular ECL is that it won't drawing in much tropical air, but there will be lots of very cold Antarctic air once again which could cause some snow for the tablelands during Thursday and Friday, with a bias to the Central and Northern tablelands due to the nature of the colder airflow bypassing the ST's and wrapping around further north. This should also be a good top up for the Snowies.

In terms of rain, there could be some decent rain on the South Coast, although by Friday as the low starts moving away those showers should spread all up the coast under southerly winds. By the weekend, the big high should move in with only a few light showers with the onshore winds.

Overall it should be interesting to see how this unfolds and apologies for my rather lengthy analysis.

~Wave Rider

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#1335165 - 14/07/2015 18:15 Re: NSW Cold Event- ECL with Rain & Tableland Snow, 15th to 18th July 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
sou Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/02/2015
Posts: 52
Loc: Katoomba
lengthy analysis is what makes weather events interesting! that and snow smile

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#1335174 - 14/07/2015 18:37 Re: NSW Cold Event- ECL with Rain & Tableland Snow, 15th to 18th July 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
Thanks sou. It looks like you may get some snow as there will be moisture more so on the eastern side of ranges rather than the west side like Sunday. I reckon there will be snow to about 1000m so Katoomba may just be in the range. smile
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#1335178 - 14/07/2015 18:49 Re: NSW Cold Event- ECL with Rain & Tableland Snow, 15th to 18th July 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
sou Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/02/2015
Posts: 52
Loc: Katoomba
i dunno. there's always a chance. the BOM has orange forecast for a chance of snow on thursday. it seems like the best of the cold will be too far west for katoomba to get anything more than cold rain, but i'm no weather expert and the last really good snowfall in the mountains was as a result of an ECL so fingers crossed. looking forward to hear what everyone else thinks.

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#1335179 - 14/07/2015 19:00 Re: NSW Cold Event- ECL with Rain & Tableland Snow, 15th to 18th July 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
orangeroughy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2012
Posts: 659
Loc: Orange, NSW
Good kick off WR. I've put my rough thoughts tacked on to the end of the current forum. I think we are singing from the same song sheet at least. smile

Apols for the mixing of metaphors. cool
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NW Orange NSW 860m asl

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#1335181 - 14/07/2015 19:17 Re: NSW Cold Event- ECL with Rain & Tableland Snow, 15th to 18th July 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
Yeah Orange is in for a chance for sure, but it's likely that there will be more moisture in the east this time. In the Blue Mtns, usually the heaviest snowfalls come from ECL's. When it comes from the west, most the precip dries out over the Orange area and Oberon Plateau before reaching the BM's, as you may already know.

Yeah OR, I think we are on the same page which is a good thing!! Hehehe don't be sorry mate. wink
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#1335187 - 14/07/2015 19:53 Re: NSW Cold Event- ECL with Rain & Tableland Snow, 15th to 18th July 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2842
Lol. Threads sprouting like alfalfa sprouts. Good you are back posting WR. Bummer about going back to the chalk board. Your posts are all good reads.
Ecl without cold enough air is a cursed thing to have this time of year. But interacting with a cold pool it will y dump snow smack bang over the alps.
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#1335190 - 14/07/2015 20:17 Re: NSW Cold Event- ECL with Rain & Tableland Snow, 15th to 18th July 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
Haha I guess you could say that! Cheers Knot. I really like reading your posts as well which is why I was thrilled when you came back.

Yeah well most ECL's suck in a lot of tropical air but not so with this one. This one as I said before is sucking in lots of ultra cold air from like 55S.

Yes it will dump snow on the alps but the funny thing is that the coldest air will go around the alps and hit the C and N tablelands. Graham Creed said there is only meant to be snow down to 1000m around the Snowies, but possibly down to 700m for the Central and Northern Tablelands with 20cm possible for the CT's.

However, if the last event is anything to go by, I would probably up the 700m to 900-1000m realistically.
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#1335245 - 15/07/2015 07:46 Re: NSW Cold Event- ECL with Rain & Tableland Snow, 15th to 18th July 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 526
Be interesting to see what happens. It'd be incredible to have a similar sytem to the one that brought such heavy snow to parts of the E'n CT's last October to come through in mid winter. Would've only needed to have been another degree or so colder and Katoomba would've have beeen buried in snow! Think 700m is a bit too optimistic and agree 900-1000m is more likely. Could imagine the area around Oberon could see some pretty heavy snow with a predominately S'ly air flow?

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#1335266 - 15/07/2015 09:46 Re: NSW Cold Event- ECL with Rain & Tableland Snow, 15th to 18th July 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10186
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Well O/R - that snow in Orange (also reports from Oberon & Yetholme) made tennis last night VERY fresh. No flakes here just a very fine misty drizzle around 9pm and a bit later. Trackie dacs used but did get down to a polo shirt after the first set. smile

Could see snow showers to my north this morning about 8.30am.

Fairly decent precip forecast for here today and tomorrow.

In the "ECL" set up I would be watching Mt Trickett above Jenolan Caves like a hawk. Around 1300m elevation it catches moisture from the easterly quadrants VERY well.

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#1335269 - 15/07/2015 09:57 Re: NSW Cold Event- ECL with Rain & Tableland Snow, 15th to 18th July 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6407
Loc: Dural
Oops.......I put the following in the other thread.

.....................

Rain forecast to develop today over the Central Tablelands, falling as snow above 1100 metres. Snow level is forecast to drop to 700 metres tomorrow.
Hope there's plenty of moisture around.

Homer.

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#1335273 - 15/07/2015 10:43 Re: NSW Cold Event- ECL with Rain & Tableland Snow, 15th to 18th July 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10186
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Plenty of moisture in the forecast. Some people around the higher part here getting excited.

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#1335274 - 15/07/2015 10:53 Re: NSW Cold Event- ECL with Rain & Tableland Snow, 15th to 18th July 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6407
Loc: Dural
Yeh, well as WR said, Graham Creed was talking about falls of up to 20 cm's.
I can see why people are excited!!

Homer.

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#1335277 - 15/07/2015 11:15 Re: NSW Cold Event- ECL with Rain & Tableland Snow, 15th to 18th July 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10186
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yup!! grin

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#1335278 - 15/07/2015 11:39 Re: NSW Cold Event- ECL with Rain & Tableland Snow, 15th to 18th July 2015 [Re: DaveM]
snowforus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/07/2012
Posts: 401
Loc: Lithgow 945m a.s.l. (Central T...
Here's a link to my video of snow in Lithgow on Sunday morning 12th July 2015 Snow at Lithgow 12th July 2015
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It's a long time between snowfalls these days, but I'm always optimistic.
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#1335281 - 15/07/2015 12:12 Re: NSW Cold Event- ECL with Rain & Tableland Snow, 15th to 18th July 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6407
Loc: Dural
Light rain has developed around Cooma. Temp is 1.9 deg's.
Very pleasant 13.2 deg's here. Nice in the sun as there's no breeze today.

Homer.


Edited by Homer (15/07/2015 12:14)

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#1335282 - 15/07/2015 12:25 Re: NSW Cold Event- ECL with Rain & Tableland Snow, 15th to 18th July 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
orangeroughy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2012
Posts: 659
Loc: Orange, NSW
Very pleasant here too. The sun is breaking thru occasionally while in the NE quadrant. Picks out the snow cover on the mtn quite nicely. There is a slow thickening of the cloud, mainly vertically, but everything seems to be happening in slow motion atm. The lows don't seems to be in a hurry. Its a slow dance. cool
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NW Orange NSW 860m asl

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#1335283 - 15/07/2015 12:34 Re: NSW Cold Event- ECL with Rain & Tableland Snow, 15th to 18th July 2015 [Re: orangeroughy]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6407
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: orangeroughy
Very pleasant here too. The sun is breaking thru occasionally while in the NE quadrant. Picks out the snow cover on the mtn quite nicely. There is a slow thickening of the cloud, mainly vertically, but everything seems to be happening in slow motion atm. The lows don't seems to be in a hurry. Its a slow dance. cool


That's a good point OR, but exactly what the forecast charts were suggesting.
Bathurst cam also showing a thickening of the lower cloud, but that main cloud band is moving (developing) very slowly as the low develops over the inland. It'll be fascinating watching its progress over the next 10 or so hours, and how the forecast rain starts to develop.

Homer.

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#1335284 - 15/07/2015 12:41 Re: NSW Cold Event- ECL with Rain & Tableland Snow, 15th to 18th July 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2842
Cloud appearing from west. Around 16 here.
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#1335285 - 15/07/2015 12:46 Re: NSW Cold Event- ECL with Rain & Tableland Snow, 15th to 18th July 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10186
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Old country saying, rain slow to arrive is rain slow to leave grin

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