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#1335497 - 16/07/2015 18:00 VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Extended Wet, Unsettled Period With Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - July 19th 2015 onwards...
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
G'day and bula vinaka everyone! smile

Thought it might be high time to get a new thread ready for the next event, so here we go! wink

Looks like a large high pressure area will drop in this weekend and bring some fine, settled conditions. Then from the beginning of next week onwards things turn interesting! smile

Difficult to make out exactly what's going to happen, but based on the synoptic charts and ACCESS, the high is scheduled to retreat off the Australian East Coast by Sunday. It'll be fairly slow-moving as it moves across the Tasman Sea towards New Zealand, allowing a persistent northerly airflow to develop across Victoria. A series of cold fronts and low pressure systems will be on the move in the Southern Ocean as the week progresses, but add into this rather complex equation a potential easterly/tropical dip and/or a northwest cloudband, commencing Tuesday/Wednesday, fed by Pacific and Indian moisture respectively! If ACCESS is anything to go by, a potential ECL could be on the cards by the weekend of July 25-26! smile

Again difficult to make out exactly what will happen, but hopefully more welcome winter rainfall, along with possible alpine snow and maybe thunderstorm action for Victoria!

Worth keeping an eye on...

Have a great weekend and week ahead guys! wink

Aussiestormfreak

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#1335504 - 16/07/2015 19:25 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Extended Wet, Unsettled Period With Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - July 19th 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
A third ECL in less than 3 weeks will surprise many folk, preconditioned to ending El Nino over the past 3 months by the media.

I hear all around, ...but I thought is was supposed to be dry? (Don't read anything into I've personally presented on this, just saying what I hear).

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#1335505 - 16/07/2015 19:32 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Extended Wet, Unsettled Period With Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - July 19th 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Yes, and I'm just going by what the models are hinting at. Too early to say, just need to watch it day by day. smile

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#1335722 - 17/07/2015 12:30 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Extended Wet, Unsettled Period With Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - July 19th 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
ACCESS has now backed off on next weekend's ECL scenario (GFS still has it, sort-of), but the synoptic charts have the high anchored off the Australian East Coast for an extended period, hence a persistent northerly airflow and a potential abundance of South Pacific moisture. Could be looking at a decent mid-winter rainfall event for Victoria, due to either the 'easterly/tropical dip' scenario or to the northwest cloudband scenario (or both). Still got several cold fronts lined up for Victoria as well, probably not going to affect temperatures too much but hopefully help bring additional storm action! smile

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#1335789 - 17/07/2015 19:07 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Extended Wet, Unsettled Period With Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - July 19th 2015 onwards... [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Petros
A third ECL in less than 3 weeks will surprise many folk, preconditioned to ending El Nino over the past 3 months by the media.

I hear all around, ...but I thought is was supposed to be dry? (Don't read anything into I've personally presented on this, just saying what I hear).


Spellchecker..... "A third ECL in less than 3 weeks will surprise many folk, preconditioned to
entering El Nino over the past 3 months by the media.
[/b][I]

Another 0.25mm over last 24hrs. Looking forward to some sunshine over next 3 days. Baro here steady on 1021 hPa.

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#1335797 - 17/07/2015 20:02 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Extended Wet, Unsettled Period With Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - July 19th 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
DanielB Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 103
Loc: Bulleen VIC
The Bureau's predicting 1 for Melbourne on Sunday morning. When was the last time that happened?

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#1335806 - 17/07/2015 20:36 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Extended Wet, Unsettled Period With Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - July 19th 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Alex_96L Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/02/2015
Posts: 220
Loc: Mulgrave (SE Suburbs), Melbour...
Speaking of that, does anyone know the last time Melbourne officially dropped below 0C?

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#1336101 - 20/07/2015 20:09 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Extended Wet, Unsettled Period With Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - July 19th 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1310
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Gfs off the scale on tonights update lol
528 line pushes right up into nsw,if it holds anywhere near
what it currently is then i should see snow here easily!

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#1336106 - 20/07/2015 21:03 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Extended Wet, Unsettled Period With Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - July 19th 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Certainly some potentially ferocious cold fronts lined up for the next 7 days or so, first one coming this way on satellite! Even though it's expected to weaken at it crosses Victoria this week, it'll vanquish this calm spell quickly. Strengthening northerly airflow tomorrow, about to get stormy! smile

Severe Weather Warning
for damaging winds
for people in the South West and Central forecast districts
Issued at 6:06 pm EST on Monday 20 July 2015.
Weather Situation
A large high pressure system over the Tasman Sea will move to over the central Tasman on Tuesday. A cold front will approach western Victoria later on Tuesday before entering the west of the State on Wednesday.

DAMAGING WINDS around 50-60 km/h with peak gusts of 90 km/h are forecast for elevated parts of the South West and Central forecast districts during Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front on Wednesday.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:

Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
Keep clear of fallen power lines.
For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.

The next warning will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Monday.
This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300-659-217*.

The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

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#1336112 - 20/07/2015 23:14 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Extended Wet, Unsettled Period With Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - July 19th 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
A noticeably warmer night compared to recent evenings. Lowest it's dropped to so far is only 7.1C, and it's risen back to about 8C. smile

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#1336118 - 21/07/2015 07:46 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Extended Wet, Unsettled Period With Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - July 19th 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 7.1C (as per my above post), currently a mostly clear and relatively 'balmy' 11C. smile

Barometer is falling sharply though, it was 1027hPa when I went to bed, now it's 1023hPa. Very blustery too, with northerly winds clocked at up to 33km/h. smile

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#1336119 - 21/07/2015 08:08 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Extended Wet, Unsettled Period With Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - July 19th 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2099
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Third frost in a row, lovely days!

Still cloudless and no wind.

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#1336122 - 21/07/2015 08:33 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Extended Wet, Unsettled Period With Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - July 19th 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
BlueyZarsoff Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/07/2015
Posts: 118
Loc: Fountain Lakes (Sth East Melb)
Balmy 10 deg here ,light wispy cloud moving in .

Looks like next few days might get some decent falls if the models come off !!

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#1336135 - 21/07/2015 11:15 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Extended Wet, Unsettled Period With Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - July 19th 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Alex_96L Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/02/2015
Posts: 220
Loc: Mulgrave (SE Suburbs), Melbour...
First time it's been above 15C here since June 26th poke

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#1336136 - 21/07/2015 11:17 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Extended Wet, Unsettled Period With Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - July 19th 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Gusty northerly winds here in Dandenong, extensive high cloud from the northwest too, but otherwise a lovely sunny day! Currently around 15C. smile

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#1336140 - 21/07/2015 13:07 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Extended Wet, Unsettled Period With Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - July 19th 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
BlueyZarsoff Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/07/2015
Posts: 118
Loc: Fountain Lakes (Sth East Melb)
Berwick weather station reading 16.9 @ 1.0pm

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#1336159 - 21/07/2015 17:17 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Extended Wet, Unsettled Period With Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - July 19th 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1555
Loc: Orange, NSW
It's looking pretty nasty out there this afternoon - feels like very stormy weather but no rain in sight. Even had some mammatus showing about an hour ago.

Reached a high of 11.2c today while yesterday barely scraped into the double digits at 10.1c - our first double digits since July 10. Only 7 days this month > 10c so far.
_________________________
Wunderground | davidm.com.au

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#1336165 - 21/07/2015 18:23 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Extended Wet, Unsettled Period With Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - July 19th 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Severe frost here this morning again, then had to tackle fog on the trip to a warm (-2C) Latrobe Valley.

Hoping that the rain band crossing Vic overnight will have passed Maffra by 11:30am tomorrow.

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#1336183 - 21/07/2015 21:49 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Extended Wet, Unsettled Period With Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - July 19th 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Peaked at 17.5C this afternoon here in Belgrave, and still around 13C. Looks set to be my first 10C+ night in over four weeks, my last being 10.5C on June 18th! smile

It was sunny for the most part, but cloud increased during the afternoon (I saw the mammatus that Davidm mentioned while I was in Dandenong). Also a couple of gaps in the cloudcover after 5pm, making for a quick, golden sunset! smile

Peak northerly wind gusts to around 38km/h at the last check. smile

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#1336184 - 21/07/2015 22:02 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Extended Wet, Unsettled Period With Rain, Possible Storms & Hail, Alpine Snow - July 19th 2015 onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2652
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Wonderful tonight for while only 11.2c warmer great had enough cold nights average of 6.5c in last week, heating warm house tonight, thanks to clouds cover SE Australia no frost.

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