Page 38 of 52 < 1 2 ... 36 37 38 39 40 ... 51 52 >
Topic Options
#1337390 - 02/08/2015 22:05 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7584
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Based on 3+ years of daily data, the South-eastern Australian wet season (winter/spring rains) appear to be starting to get going smile .


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (02/08/2015 22:06)

Top
#1338119 - 09/08/2015 16:53 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7584
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Estimated rainfall range, 9th to 12th of August: 27.4 to 93.8 mm; possible minor flooding.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (09/08/2015 16:53)

Top
#1338120 - 09/08/2015 17:02 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7584
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
Estimated rainfall range, 9th to 12th of August: 27.4 to 93.8 mm; possible minor flooding.

Date, Max/Min (degrees C), Rain (mm), Maximum River Water Level (m)
9th August 2015: 17/5, 2 to 4.7, 0.04
10th August 2015: 12/6, 8.1 to 25.8, 0.11
11th August 2015: 10/6, 12 to 41.7, 0.58
12th August 2015: 12/5, 5.3 to 21.6, 1.09

Temperatures source Bureau.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (09/08/2015 17:05)

Top
#1338121 - 09/08/2015 17:13 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7584
Loc: Adelaide Hills
If the river water level exceeds 0.8 metres, flooding is probable.

Top
#1338252 - 11/08/2015 13:50 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7584
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
If the river water level exceeds 0.8 metres, flooding is probable.

0.8 metres has been reached or exceeded in the last 3 years (2012-14). Based on current temperature profile (11/7) could get anything up to 40 mm [overnight] smile .

Top
#1338308 - 11/08/2015 23:10 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7584
Loc: Adelaide Hills
10:40 pm CST: Local river is starting respond to rainfall (has stopped raining...mostly).

Top
#1338328 - 12/08/2015 10:06 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
duckweather Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/12/2010
Posts: 2681
Loc: Wantirna, Vic
Hi folks.

I think I have posted this in the right thread?

I came across an article on "The Watchers - by Adonai" regarding the El Nino;

"Odds keep rising for a big El Niño in 2015"

(Just realized this should be in the ENSO thread blush )



Cheers, Duck.

Top
#1338720 - 16/08/2015 20:54 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7584
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Actual Observations (and Estimates)
Date, Max/Min (degrees C), Rainfall Range and Actual Rain (mm), Predicted and Estimated Maximum River Water Levels (m)
9th August 2015: 16/2, 0.2 to 2 (0.7), 0.04 (0.04). Obs: 0.10.
10th August 2015: 12/7, 11.3 to 30.3 (2.2), 0.11 (0.03). Obs: 0.08.
11th August 2015: 11/7, 14.1 to 40.4 (21.8), 0.58 (0.08). Obs:0.20.
12th August 2015: 11/6, 9.7 to 31.8 (12.4), 1.09 (0.11) Obs: 0.29.
Observations [Bureau] for comparison based on flood level of 0.8 metres
N.B: Streamflow estimates based on 1100+ days of continuous data, so the “memory” of the system is a factor.
*Streamflow fell.

Top
#1338977 - 20/08/2015 22:09 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7584
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Potentially serious [heavy/widespread] inland/coastal rain event pending mid-to-late August, more details coming.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (20/08/2015 22:17)

Top
#1339009 - 21/08/2015 16:44 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7584
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Centres that may be affected include Albany (WA), Wudinna, Yunta, Hawker and Waikerie (SA), Bombala and Bairnsdale (VIC), Sydney, Wollongong and Mudgee (NSW), and Goondiwindi and Longreach (QLD). Falls between 20 and 60 mm may be possible, and to be honest, I'm no longer that interested in keeping this thread maintained.

Top
#1339101 - 22/08/2015 15:42 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7584
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
Centres that may be affected include Albany (WA), Wudinna, Yunta, Hawker and Waikerie (SA), Bombala and Bairnsdale (VIC), Sydney, Wollongong and Mudgee (NSW), and Goondiwindi and Longreach (QLD). Falls between 20 and 60 mm may be possible, and to be honest, I'm no longer that interested in keeping this thread maintained.

Date were [and still are] Saturday 22nd to Monday 24th of August.

Top
#1339329 - 24/08/2015 16:48 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7584
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Extended to the 27th with severe thunderstorm potential and heavy falls [24-hours to 9 am today, Hunter Region].

FLOOD WATCH FOR ILLAWARRA, SOUTH COAST AND THE LACHLAN AND NEPEAN RIVER VALLEYS

Issued at 12:54 pm EST on Monday 24 August 2015

At this stage there is a greater than 70% chance of flooding in the following river valleys from Tuesday onwards:

1. Lachlan River valley downstream of Wyangala Dam, including the Belubula River - moderate rural flooding

2. Nepean River - minor flooding

3. Illawarra District - moderate to major flooding

4. South Coast - local flash flooding

Severe Weather Warnings are also being issued for this event.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (24/08/2015 16:53)

Top
#1339389 - 24/08/2015 22:34 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7584
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
Centres that may be affected include Albany (WA), Wudinna, Yunta, Hawker and Waikerie (SA), Bombala and Bairnsdale (VIC), Sydney, Wollongong and Mudgee (NSW), and Goondiwindi and Longreach (QLD). Falls between 20 and 60 mm may be possible, and to be honest, I'm no longer that interested in keeping this thread maintained.

Date were [and still are] Saturday 22nd to Monday 24th of August.

And Cairns.

Top
#1339528 - 26/08/2015 13:47 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7584
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Nowra in NSW on the Shoalhaven River may be in trouble with a moderate flood warning issued by the Bureau early this afternoon, EST.

Top
#1340279 - 05/09/2015 13:11 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7584
Loc: Adelaide Hills
On track for breaking a streak of years with flows >= 0.8 metres if spring/early-summer is not wetter than at present. Possible a subdued El Nino may assist this if IOD has anything to do with it.

Top
#1340700 - 13/09/2015 11:58 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7584
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Observed relative humidity took a significant dive in late August this year, to values not seen in records dating back to early-to-mid December 2012...for that time of year following reasonable rainfall in July.

Records are hourly and the change was gradual and very noticeable. This could either be an ominous sign, or a sign of something coming. I think the latter.

Top
#1342399 - 30/09/2015 12:16 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7584
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Ok Cairns, here we go smile …a wet period could be just around the corner.

For information – “Blip on the Time Line”

The shifting [surface] ridging across the continental interior (generating higher dew-point temperatures along the South-eastern Australian coast [off-shore], accompanied with a change in wind direction, WNW-to-ENE), combined with shifting [upper] troughing across the Eastern Seaboard coastal fringes is and has been leading to showers [isolated-to-scattered] near Mt. Gambier, the NSW Central-to-Lower Coasts, and regionally near Cairns [week ending 26th of September 2015]. If the [NE QLD] upper troughing reaches a critical point [with the 500 hPa southern rossby-wave pushing north-eastwards towards Cairns] the change in temperature seems likely to bring dew-points even higher early-October.

Top
#1342706 - 03/10/2015 20:27 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: teckert]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7584
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: teckert
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
Admin/mods might want to clarify what exactly is a banned/unmentionable topic of discussion. Can I mentioned for example temperature in relation to streamflow, or water vapour in relation to temperature in relation to streamflow...or is conversation so restricted through people getting worried about being banned for minor things that it's not worth it anymore?

Feedback much appreciated!


That should be all okay. As long as you are not specifically referring to climate change. (which i presume you are referring to in regards to banning?)

Ok, so I can say this:
I have an idea:

The majority of non-water vapour gases in the atmosphere that have either a temporary or permanent dipole moment contribute to sensible heat flux, which affects the specific and relative humidity of the air, thus impacting on surface soil moisture smile .

And no it's not about banned topics. It's about science.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (03/10/2015 20:34)

Top
#1343255 - 08/10/2015 17:45 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7584
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
Observed relative humidity took a significant dive in late August this year, to values not seen in records dating back to early-to-mid December 2012...for that time of year following reasonable rainfall in July.

Records are hourly and the change was gradual and very noticeable. This could either be an ominous sign, or a sign of something coming. I think the latter.

A possible approaching synoptic event seems to have 700 hPa winds directing moisture from near Weipa off the northern flank of the easterly belt sourced from the Coral Sea, the remainder from the upper rossby-wave in the south.

Top
#1343427 - 10/10/2015 12:13 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7584
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Precursor Synoptic Situation
For information only – see if it comes true grin ...
Views Written 7th-8th of October 2015
:
Valid 9th-11th of October 2015:

Roughly September 23rd this year, a surface high was centred just south of Adelaide directing cool-to-cold southerlies and polar maritime air across SA, with frosts in areas most affected. Come the 28th, that high had shifted further south and was reducing the impact of strong westerlies through countering easterlies south of Ceduna, while allowing east coast lows to seemingly penetrate further south (hence showers on the east coast near Sydney). Then, just recently (1st October) the upper rossby-wave took a swing north towards Brisbane (and then Cairns) generating more showers through a combination of variables:

Higher CAPE; Lower/moderated CINH (convective inhibition)
Higher 700 hPa Relative Humidity
Increased Precipitable Water (Tropics)
Lower Lifted Indices
Higher Surface Dew points
Moderated Surface Temperatures

That upper trough, having impacted on the previous high in the Bight, gave ample room for another high to drift further north across the continental interior, north of Adelaide, delivering copious heat and light-to-moderate northerly winds. This brought the opportunity for the high centred in the west to align west-east, and the high in the east to be aligned north-south, allowing trough and front-like activity into the Bight, with a cool change.

This facilitates a wave of higher pressure along about -35 degrees latitudes. The remnants of the upper trough and frontal activity [having passed over the Southeast] linger into another weekend [10th-11th], over Central and Eastern Victoria. These include higher CAPE, some cap (Convective Inhibition), 700 hPa Relative Humidity of 50 to 90%, Lifted Indices of -4 to -6, dewpoints of 16 to 18 (at peak), Precipitable Water of 25 to 35 mm, and surface plus-26-degree temperatures converging from the north with sub-22-degree temperatures from the south with weak upper low formation.

Updated 9th of October 2015:
Lower 500-1000 mb thickness; weak upper low
Surface Toughing – to Immediate West – western slopes of Great Dividing Range
Higher CAPE (1200 to 1400 J/kg); Lower/moderated CINH (convective inhibition precursor)
Higher 700 hPa Relative Humidity (Tropics – Coral Sea, Southern Ocean)
Higher 850 hPa Relative Humidity (Tropics – Coral Sea, low at ~ 7 deg S, 170 deg E)
Increased Precipitable Water (700 hPa-sfc)
Lower Lifted Indices (-2 to -6)
Higher Surface Dew points (14 to 18 deg C, update: same, by Saturday)
Moderated Surface Temperatures (14 to 18 deg C, update: 18 to 24 deg C, by Sunday)

Locations likely to be most affected include Echuca, Kyabram, Tatura, Shepparton, Wangaratta, Yarrawonga, Albury-Wodonga, Benalla, Mt. Hotham, Mt. Buller, Omeo and Falls Creek.

Possible falls in the 20-40 mm range with severe weather/heavy rain (Friday-Sunday).
Severe weather may be possible over the next week (7-10 days from Friday) between Sydney and Brisbane.

[Disclaimer: Not official].


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (10/10/2015 12:19)

Top
Page 38 of 52 < 1 2 ... 36 37 38 39 40 ... 51 52 >


Who's Online
13 registered (logansi, Foehn Correspondent, wetdreams, Corretto, Hailin, Chookie, TrentG, Steve O, StormCapture, snoopydoo, Petros, 2 invisible), 384 Guests and 2 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
alby, controler, NCSC - Antonio, puca
Forum Stats
29681 Members
32 Forums
23981 Topics
1501055 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image