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#1349486 - 20/11/2015 16:43 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2015/16 [Re: Ken Kato]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4464
Loc: Brisbane
Better to look at visible imagery that shows how decoupled the convection is from the low level circulation.



I'm looking at charts on bsch.com.au that show shear up to 40knts in the mid to upper levels.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1349497 - 20/11/2015 18:47 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2015/16 [Re: Ken Kato]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 808
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
So is that the Low off the QLD coast. That blob of cloud east of the Tsv region?
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#1349588 - 21/11/2015 17:25 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2015/16 [Re: Ken Kato]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Where's that LOW gone? Good to see QLD getting back to the days of old with marginal puffs of cloud crossing the Coral Sea resulting in nothing. poke

I think it could be 'game on' from here with the QLD/WA TC tussle. WA is predicted to have a bad season so you guys might be in with a 10% chance of beating us. Good luck. Let the TC games begin. cheers
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#1349604 - 21/11/2015 20:55 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2015/16 [Re: BrisWeatherNerd]
BrisWeatherNerd Offline
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Registered: 09/07/2012
Posts: 936
Loc: Weather Nerd Central, Kedron, ...
Originally Posted By: TSVWeatherNerd
Nawp. Shear to the south is terrible. Otherwise not bad conditions but that shear will keep it from deepening significantly. GFS has a tendency to pretty much overbake everything and yet it washes this out, and ECMWF has it coming in as a low, but I see it as far more likely that it will wash out and become indistinguishable from the trough that spawned it. Off the SE as a nothing.

I will gladly admit to being wrong if it turns out otherwise, which would be preferable at this juncture.


And...bingo.
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#1349617 - 21/11/2015 23:03 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2015/16 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7062
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
GFS 1 EC 0

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#1349620 - 22/11/2015 00:05 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2015/16 [Re: Ken Kato]
BlueStorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/10/2014
Posts: 349
Loc: Adelaide
GFS was dominating early last season might do it again this season.

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#1349643 - 22/11/2015 10:12 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2015/16 [Re: Popeye]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
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Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4135
Loc: El Arish
Originally Posted By: Popeye
Where's that LOW gone? Good to see QLD getting back to the days of old with marginal puffs of cloud crossing the Coral Sea resulting in nothing. poke

I think it could be 'game on' from here with the QLD/WA TC tussle. WA is predicted to have a bad season so you guys might be in with a 10% chance of beating us. Good luck. Let the TC games begin. cheers


Looks like the first cyclone this season in the Sthn Hemisphere.


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#1349655 - 22/11/2015 11:08 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2015/16 [Re: Ken Kato]
ColdFront Offline
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Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18424
Loc: Burnett Heads
Nah there was one in July Yasi.
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#1349657 - 22/11/2015 11:39 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2015/16 [Re: ColdFront]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4135
Loc: El Arish
For the current season. wink
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#1349658 - 22/11/2015 12:10 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2015/16 [Re: Ken Kato]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18424
Loc: Burnett Heads
The July system will be counted into the 2014-2015 season but obviously the official season started November 1st.
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#1349758 - 23/11/2015 09:49 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2015/16 [Re: Ken Kato]
Steamy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/03/2004
Posts: 703
Loc: Mackay Qld Australia
Access G +240 has TD/TC Developing over Solomon Group

I know it's a long way off and likely will not happen but better than nothing to follow.

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#1349849 - 23/11/2015 19:38 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2015/16 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: @_Yasified_shak
Looks like the first cyclone this season in the Sthn Hemisphere.

Yeah we will take that as a WA one. But hang on..... then you guys will claim all the Fiji, Vanuatu and Noumea ones as QLD's.
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#1349994 - 24/11/2015 21:42 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2015/16 [Re: Ken Kato]
jjs Offline
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Registered: 31/07/2015
Posts: 215

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#1350182 - 26/11/2015 14:56 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2015/16 [Re: Ken Kato]
Synoptic Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2011
Posts: 74
Loc: Cairns
Well the West AOR extends a he'll of a lot further than the East AOR.

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#1350254 - 27/11/2015 13:08 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2015/16 [Re: Ken Kato]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 8400
Loc: Blair Athol, SA
Further East is covered by Fiji/Vanuatu/New Cal Met offices .. west of Aus, well, there's not a whole lot smile

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#1350861 - 30/11/2015 12:52 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2015/16 [Re: Ken Kato]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS R has a tropical low forming at 157E 3 s tomorrow 1st Dec
and maintains its small but symmetrical shape throughout the weak as it migrates slowly east
by next sunday its diameter has enlarged and is at 163E 7s
on todays forecast
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
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#1351585 - 05/12/2015 07:50 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2015/16 [Re: Ken Kato]
jjs Offline
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Registered: 31/07/2015
Posts: 215

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#1351627 - 05/12/2015 14:02 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2015/16 [Re: Ken Kato]
BlueStorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/10/2014
Posts: 349
Loc: Adelaide
None of the other models showing anything atm will be interesting to see what GFS puts out this afternoon.

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#1351664 - 05/12/2015 21:58 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2015/16 [Re: Ken Kato]
jjs Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/07/2015
Posts: 215
OOZ run is the same i don't put alot of faith in the cmc either,
its likely picking upon the mid-level saturation from passing R/Wave.




Climatology wise its possible this whole month.

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#1351687 - 06/12/2015 11:14 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2015/16 [Re: Ken Kato]
jjs Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/07/2015
Posts: 215




If pink ensembles pan out then a booming mjo over the holiday period.

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