Page 680 of 797 < 1 2 ... 678 679 680 681 682 ... 796 797 >
Topic Options
#1355976 - 29/12/2015 18:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
A massive low / potential TC in the sth coral.nth tasman ,bringing strong southeasterly flow and strong waves to many parts of the sth qld/ NE NSW coast east coast this week
strong onshore winds perhaps
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?unit=p18&type=windWave&area=Au&model=CG


Edited by crikey (29/12/2015 18:51)
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

Top
#1355988 - 29/12/2015 19:45 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Bello Weather]
Bello Weather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/07/2012
Posts: 358
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: Bello Weather
EC has been hinting at a black nor'easter for our region for a few days now - YR for example showing totals well over 200mm for Bellingen for the first three days of next week. Other models yet to pick up on it, but the EC indications of a wetter spell have been there for a few runs now...combination of really decent cut off just inland and strong onshore flow. Ensemble is looking pretty similar. Waiting for either EC to give up on the idea or, more likely, the other models to catch up.


Latest EC ramps it up further, 2 days totals close to 350mm for NE NSW:



And the reason why - check out this combo:





...GFS gives us less than 25mm for the same period...
_________________________
www.bellingenweather.org

Top
#1356004 - 29/12/2015 20:42 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5189
Loc: Diamond Valley
Bello, hinting yes, but the actual focus of the rain is still 'up in the air'. The general setup certainly favours such an outcome with a significant upper trough fed by a moist NE flow. However, there is still no certainty as to the region that will be affected the most. EC, as usual, does best with these scenarios, whilst GFS is dragging its heels. EC has been all over the place with the monsoon low whereas GFS has done pretty well with it. Horses for courses in the end.
_________________________
The original donut hole

Top
#1356007 - 29/12/2015 20:47 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Bello Weather]
Mamma Tus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/12/2011
Posts: 345
Loc: NE NSW
This seems a promising set up or at the very least an interesting situation to monitor over the next week. Speaking as an absolute beginner weathernerd, is it worth starting a new thread - the very first for 2016?
_________________________
"Clouds are the sky's imagination." ~Terri Guillemets

Top
#1356009 - 29/12/2015 20:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
wet sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/10/2015
Posts: 628
Loc: NENSW-Wet Subtropics
Hey Bello Weather, do you have a link to the 6-hourly rainfall charts?

Top
#1356015 - 29/12/2015 21:10 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: wet sky]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1917
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: rainiac
Hey Bello Weather, do you have a link to the 6-hourly rainfall charts?


http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Queensland/Brisbane/long.html

If you want another location, enter it in the search box.

I also like this one too (although it's a bit buggy):

http://www.yr.no/kart/#lat=-27.46794&lon=153.02809&zoom=7&laga=nedb%C3%B8r&baseid=PunktUtlandet%3A2174003&proj=900913

EDIT: I hope EC is wrong about the location as the event is very focused on NE NSW and Brisbane gets about 30 mm.


Edited by Nature's Fury (29/12/2015 21:11)

Top
#1356018 - 29/12/2015 21:13 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
wet sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/10/2015
Posts: 628
Loc: NENSW-Wet Subtropics
Thanks heaps Natures Fury. I'm hoping it will turn out to be a decent event.

Top
#1356019 - 29/12/2015 21:15 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4741
Meanwhile, below is the 6-hourly rainfall plume forecast for Brisbane from 3 of the ensembles (total of 62 potential scenarios). You can see that quite a few of the CMC ensemble's forecast members are currently much keener than the other two ensembles which are less enthusiastic:


Top
#1356022 - 29/12/2015 21:26 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2956
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Awesome vid Mezo. I think it will be thread worthy. Just not sure if we are gonna be in a southerly airstream or a more northerly one. A low in the Tasman looks to mess with the ridging so I'm kind of hoping it doesn't play to much into our weather and rather have more onshore flow from the Coral Sea.


Edited by Steve O (29/12/2015 21:29)

Top
#1356027 - 29/12/2015 22:07 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Inclement Weather]
Bello Weather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/07/2012
Posts: 358
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
Bello, hinting yes, but the actual focus of the rain is still 'up in the air'. The general setup certainly favours such an outcome with a significant upper trough fed by a moist NE flow. However, there is still no certainty as to the region that will be affected the most. EC, as usual, does best with these scenarios, whilst GFS is dragging its heels. EC has been all over the place with the monsoon low whereas GFS has done pretty well with it. Horses for courses in the end.

Yep, totally agree. Chances of the rain ending up where EC is predicting it nearly a week out is pretty slim. I run a local Facebook weather page and would not post those totals on there - just way too early and no model agreement (though 06Z GFS does come slightly closer). But hey, long time between big rain events so bringing it up on here as a good conversation starter.
_________________________
www.bellingenweather.org

Top
#1356066 - 30/12/2015 10:08 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Macca-wx Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2001
Posts: 1974
Loc: Wavell Heights, QLD
Access G and GFS are starting to come more into line with EC's longer term outlook. Days 5-7 on all 3 models are hinting at the tropical low to "trough out" over southern QLD and then deepen in response to an approaching upper trough. Result is deep NE'ly feed onto the SEQ and NE NSW coasts with an approaching upper trough. Rainfall amounts differ between models due to strenth of upper trough (which then impacts how deep the surface trough gets, how strong the surface infeed of NE"lys is, and also how much additional lift is there from the upper troughs).

As has been highlighted above, as it is still a week out AND the models are all not the best at predicting the movements of closed lows (at any level), I'd be hesitant to put any reliance on this information just yet. Perhaps if they are all still aligning in 48hrs, it will become worthy of more widespread discussion.

Macca

Top
#1356069 - 30/12/2015 10:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4741
Latest WATL which uses all the leading models shows the possible extent of the rainfall extending down through NSW to VIC as well (if it were to eventuate):



Top
#1356076 - 30/12/2015 10:58 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Storm within Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/11/2013
Posts: 351
Loc: Morayfield
Yes, Access has certainly come on board this morning! All subject to change as we know. If it did eventuate my concern would lay with NE NSW due to their recent rainfall totals. Def keeping a close eye on this scenario!
_________________________
Don't knock the weather. If it didn't change once in awhile, 9 out of 10 people would have nothing to start a conversation with.

Top
#1356098 - 30/12/2015 12:53 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Mamma Tus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/12/2011
Posts: 345
Loc: NE NSW
Yes a definite watch and see with this one! Could be mighty interesting for some folks especially south of the border smile
_________________________
"Clouds are the sky's imagination." ~Terri Guillemets

Top
#1356106 - 30/12/2015 13:39 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Ken Kato]
Macca-wx Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2001
Posts: 1974
Loc: Wavell Heights, QLD
Best thing about this map is how widespread the rain is! That's almost every corner of QLD and NSW. Not so much for Vic but some at least.

Top
#1356123 - 30/12/2015 16:04 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10219
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
1.4mm in the 24hrs to 9am from a couple of very brief evening onshore showers. I expect that will be the last rain recorded for 2015 here, bringing an end to a wet and stormy year. One of the showers moving over town yesterday at sunset (photo taken out of town at Jerseyville) -
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2017 Rainfall: 25.2mm (Dec Avg. 117.7mm) // December 2017 Raindays: 5 (Dec Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1493.4mm (Yearly Avg. 1491.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 155 (Yearly Avg. 137.4 raindays)

Top
#1356183 - 31/12/2015 07:22 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 863
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Then there is the low/cyclone out near Vanuatu looking to possibly run SW after the upcoming event. Probably head south to nz but ther does appear to be some potent.
The persisting low pressure band across central Australian latitude should give us another week or two of tropical-esq weather.

Gfs 7 Jan


Access for 8 Jan


Edited by Blowin' (31/12/2015 07:23)

Top
#1356184 - 31/12/2015 07:29 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4741
This morning's WATL still suggesting the possibility of decent falls also extending over eastern NSW and possibly eastern VIC:



Top
#1356185 - 31/12/2015 07:34 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 863
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Yep
How awesome does this mornings Watyl look for inland eastern Australia?!

Top
#1356187 - 31/12/2015 08:22 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Blowin']
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 863
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Originally Posted By: Blowin'
Yep
How awesome does this mornings Watyl look for inland eastern Australia?!


OOPS sorry that was yesterday's

Top
Page 680 of 797 < 1 2 ... 678 679 680 681 682 ... 796 797 >


Who's Online
4 registered (petethemoskeet, kizz, Doomadgee, Flowin), 267 Guests and 4 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Ganesh, Lizardman
Forum Stats
29444 Members
32 Forums
23761 Topics
1472343 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image