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#807228 - 19/12/2009 17:32 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: teckert]
Robbie84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2095
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Yeah i had some idea it was you TH poke quite a surprise to see a fellow weatherzone member in the flesh

Quote:
seriously what is GFS on? Now it has ex-TC Laurence over northern SA on XMas Day!!!
In fact Boxing Day is looking quite wet for us as a result...
But based on how GFS is going & how that cyclone is going I wouldnt be forecasting anything longer than 2 days out atm....


Maybe the GFS has been huffing too much helium teckert and is beginning to think were going to get rain on boxing day right after a fine day on xmas unless pigs fly i'll stick to waiting and see what happens

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#807243 - 19/12/2009 18:02 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Robbie84]
Skysthelimit Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2008
Posts: 1131
Loc: Gladstone Sth Aust
Just enjoying watching a bit of Test Cricket on the telly. I see in Perth theres been a lot of thundery stuff around, presently moving away to the east. Occasionally the tv cameras pick up some lovely towers. A cell has currently formed out in the ocean as is making a beeline for the city. Can we have some of that please.

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#807355 - 20/12/2009 00:13 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Skysthelimit]
aztech. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/11/2008
Posts: 1254
Loc: Port Lincoln, Eyre Peninsula
will probably change by the next run but GFS is saying the Flinders expecting (progged 300+mm) 80-100mm! over the next week, interesting if it comes off, but disregard this notice if balance already paid.......

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#807367 - 20/12/2009 00:55 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: aztech.]
_Sarah_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/10/2005
Posts: 3639
Loc: Salisbury North SA
I would love that too happen to Aztech, hopefully its an accurate GFS run lol.

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#807371 - 20/12/2009 01:09 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: _Sarah_]
_Chris_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/03/2009
Posts: 1143
Loc: Marleston
Since I was helping the inlaws clear out rubbish all day at Happy Valley, I decided to stop past the "legendary" Oakridge Rd to watch the sunset, and I must say, it is a pretty spectacular sight. I wouldn't mint placing myself there during a nice nocturnal thunderstorm and using some of those sizable redgums in the foreground! The picture below if one I took there this evening and decided to experiment with in paint to remove the red sun glint circle. Also Deano, where you driving through Aberfoyle Park around 8pm this evening?


For those who are interested, the original can be found here .

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#807502 - 20/12/2009 12:56 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: _Chris_]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17705
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
BOM FLOOD WATCH
For the Northeast and Northwest Pastoral district.
Issued at 12:05 pm on Sunday, 20 December 2009

Synoptic Situation:
Tropical Cyclone Laurence is forecast to cross the Western Australian coast on
Monday evening and then move southeastwards into the southwest of the Northern
Territory mid week. Rain and scattered thunderstorms with local heavy falls are
forecast to develop in the Northwest Pastoral district west of Coober Pedy
during Wednesday and extend to the Northeast Pastoral District west of
Oodnadatta during Thursday, with local flooding possible on Thursday.

Rainfall:
Falls of 70 to 120 mm are possible for the period from Wednesday until midnight
Thursday in the Pastoral districts north of Coober Pedy and west of Oodnadatta.

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#807511 - 20/12/2009 13:08 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: teckert]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17705
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
BOM are obviously using their own GASP forecast on this, as GFS is still rather different in there forecast of the ex TC....
I'd rather GFS come off.... poke

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#807522 - 20/12/2009 13:23 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: teckert]
Unstable Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/01/2007
Posts: 3591
Loc: Adelaide
If gfs looks like coming comes off I'm gonna catch a lift on Santa's sleigh and get dropped off in the far north.
Some great lightning photos of yours on the other thread TE - I was was just admiring them cool
_________________________
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Email: weather at internode.on.net

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#807622 - 20/12/2009 16:10 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Unstable]
Helen Offline
Moderator

Registered: 07/11/2001
Posts: 9678
Loc: Mid North, SA
Yer, I'd like to think (and hope) that GFS has its binary code on the pulse. Some decent falls in the Flinders over the next week or two, will make for some excellent photo opportunities in the gorges up that way. grin
_________________________
2019 YTD - 0.0mm Yearly Average - 403mm
Jan - - (10mm) / Feb - - (10mm) / Mar - - (15mm) / Apr - - (31mm)
May - - (46mm) / June - - (51mm) / July - - (59mm) / Aug - - (54mm)
Sept - - (48mm) / Oct - - (38mm) / Nov - - (23mm) / Dec - - (18mm)




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#807632 - 20/12/2009 16:31 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Helen]
Weather Guru Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2008
Posts: 1657
Loc: Munno Para , Northern Suburb o...
Not sure if this works but i'll try it. Just had to share in my excitement of whats to come over the next week or so!

[img:left]http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec7.html[/img]
_________________________
Adelaide forcefield monitor smile

Jan 10.2 mm
Feb 3.9 mm
Mar 6.3 mm
Apr 14.8
May 20.7
June
July
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2018 55.9 mm
2017 487.2 mm
2016 571
2015 369.5
2014 460.5
2013 504
2012 417
2011 598.5
2010 553

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#807649 - 20/12/2009 17:13 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Weather Guru]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17705
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Yep latest GFS is even better really... for Adelaide as well!!!

Nice precip map there WG.... also this one is pretty much the same: http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/apf.html?region=sa&days=

BOM playing it conservative at this stage, apart from the flood watch for areas west of Oodnadatta. (this should really extend across the whole pastoral imo)

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#807665 - 20/12/2009 17:52 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Weather Guru]
_Sarah_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/10/2005
Posts: 3639
Loc: Salisbury North SA
Wowee!, I hope that does pull off, my garden is screaming for water!!!.
As I said before too if 75mm in the Adelaide are alone is true, I sure would love to reach 500mm for the year before it runs out grin

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#807672 - 20/12/2009 18:04 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: teckert]
Helen Offline
Moderator

Registered: 07/11/2001
Posts: 9678
Loc: Mid North, SA
Can I start drooling now? wink
_________________________
2019 YTD - 0.0mm Yearly Average - 403mm
Jan - - (10mm) / Feb - - (10mm) / Mar - - (15mm) / Apr - - (31mm)
May - - (46mm) / June - - (51mm) / July - - (59mm) / Aug - - (54mm)
Sept - - (48mm) / Oct - - (38mm) / Nov - - (23mm) / Dec - - (18mm)




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#807675 - 20/12/2009 18:06 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: _Sarah_]
Weathergod Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/05/2007
Posts: 1675
Loc: Williamstown SA.
Yes looking like very tasty doesn't it? hmm can almost taste it nearly, just 4 days away from trying it! poke

I really think this Christmas for the pastrol people in SA is going to be some cleaning up from flooding unfortunately, which is not quite the best time of year for that might I add, I'm just glad SA's main population doesn't live in the dessert!

I'm also sooo close to breaking the 800mm mark too. I have no idea when the last time we reached that mark. Will have to do some rainfall stats searching when I have more spare time. smile

hooley mooley at that rainfall map timmy! if that is true, we might have to prepare the sand bags here too!
_________________________



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#807686 - 20/12/2009 18:27 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Weathergod]
_Chris_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/03/2009
Posts: 1143
Loc: Marleston
WOW! I'm half considering the trip towards Broken Hill if that setup holds. The only thing that might stop me is the risk of getting cut off.

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#807696 - 20/12/2009 18:49 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: _Chris_]
Helen Offline
Moderator

Registered: 07/11/2001
Posts: 9678
Loc: Mid North, SA
It's a pretty good road now Chris. Lots of deep culverts and drains to keep the floodwaters mostly off the road. Pretty darn tempting from my perspective seeing as BH is just up the road. On a trip to pick up my pup 4 years ago, the scenery was outstanding after some flooding rains... amazing red rivers everywhere. Would be nice to see it again. grin

Our largest yearly rainfall total here since I've been recording, is 545.4mm back at the end of 2007... sure would like to smash that record. Besides, we're still 6mm shy of December's average, so something has to break. wink
_________________________
2019 YTD - 0.0mm Yearly Average - 403mm
Jan - - (10mm) / Feb - - (10mm) / Mar - - (15mm) / Apr - - (31mm)
May - - (46mm) / June - - (51mm) / July - - (59mm) / Aug - - (54mm)
Sept - - (48mm) / Oct - - (38mm) / Nov - - (23mm) / Dec - - (18mm)




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#807719 - 20/12/2009 19:11 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Helen]
_Chris_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/03/2009
Posts: 1143
Loc: Marleston
Now I am tempted. I'm seriously considering it. Well see how things pan out over the next few days, but if things stay as they are, I think we'll have to make the trip!

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#807720 - 20/12/2009 19:12 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Helen]
Max Record Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/04/2009
Posts: 1668
Loc: Adelaide
At the moment the good thing is that all of those maps agree for a fair amount of precipitation. It will probably downgrade a bit, but.
_________________________
2019: 185.8mm
2018: 329.2mm
2017: 478.0mm
2016: 680.0mm
2015: 392.8mm
2014: 450.4mm
2013: 470.6mm
2012: 426.8mm
2011: 518.2mm
2010: 549.4mm
2009: 459.2mm
Yearly Average: 460mm

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#807781 - 20/12/2009 21:53 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Max Record]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 4002
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
hmmm, looks like there may be a smidgen of
excitement this wed/thurs.
for some reason i just can't get motivated
on this, might get some good rains up north
but for down here i can see it fizzling out
to nothing more than a cool change with a
few showers hell bent on doing it's utmost
to screw christmas up. this gypsy TD is
way too fickle for my liking.

TH
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指關節猛衝與球的追趕者
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#807789 - 20/12/2009 22:07 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: ThD Ht]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17705
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
yes GFS is all over the place with it...
Latest precip map: http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/tmp/apf18_20091220-06-null__sa.png
Quite a bit different really. Especially for sth areas...

BUT... now GASP has also gone crazy: http://data.theweather.com.au/access/imageserver.jsp?image=grads/gasp/wz.gasp.aus.mslp.96.png
If BOM has been going by that model & its still similar tomorrow morning, it will be interesting to see what the updated forecast will be....

Whatever the case, the models are having a hard time with this system & really I dont think we will have much of an accurate idea until maybe even a day out!!! It will basically come down to when & where the TC crosses the coast and how it's picked up then with the trough etc coming across from the west.... very interesting few days nonetheless.....

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