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#1356270 - 31/12/2015 17:07 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Naththo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/09/2001
Posts: 1474
Loc: West Lakes (Adelaide western s...
Need other opinion from you? Just checking BoM forecast and then looked at BSCH stormcast, that got me question mark over my head. BoM seems to have overlook or is not sure what to forecast, I am not sure either cos of sounding is a I would say bit dry or rather dry in some level. So probably LI/CAPE did come up with bit of false reading that gone into negative nicely on LI and some CAPE. I looked through BSCH sounding forecast to get the idea.

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#1356279 - 31/12/2015 17:34 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Unstable Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/01/2007
Posts: 3591
Loc: Adelaide
455pm I see on doppler a "cooler front" from the south-west going through Adelaide as I type and the temperature at BoM is dropping.
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Email: weather at internode.on.net

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#1356281 - 31/12/2015 17:53 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Naththo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/09/2001
Posts: 1474
Loc: West Lakes (Adelaide western s...
Yeah temperature did indeed gone down a bit by 4C at West Lakes which is good. It doesn't feel too hot now.

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#1356292 - 31/12/2015 19:06 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Chris #3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2009
Posts: 1891
Loc: Semaphore SA
Quote:
EMERGENCY WARNING FOR A BUSHFIRE BURNING UNDER SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS

Issued for Mosquito Hill and Tooperang

CFS advises that a serious bushfire is burning out of control at Mosquito Hill near Kokoda Road, Deep Creek Road, Olsen Road and Cleland Gully Road.

This Bushfire Emergency Warning Message is in place for the following area(s) Mosquito Hill and Tooperang.
The MOSQUITO HILL fire is travelling in a North Easterly direction towards Mosquito Hill and Tooperang. There is a risk to lives and homes.
The uncontrolled fire is burning in Scrub.


http://www.cfs.sa.gov.au/site/home/criim...17580000440.jsp
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-31/emergency-warning-issued-for-mosquito-hill-bushfire/7062330


Edited by Chris #3 (31/12/2015 19:07)
_________________________
GFS Stormcast by BSCH




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#1356321 - 31/12/2015 23:09 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Chris #3]
Purnong Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 124
Loc: Tooperang, SA
Originally Posted By: Chris #3
Quote:
EMERGENCY WARNING FOR A BUSHFIRE BURNING UNDER SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS

Issued for Mosquito Hill and Tooperang

CFS advises that a serious bushfire is burning out of control at Mosquito Hill near Kokoda Road, Deep Creek Road, Olsen Road and Cleland Gully Road.

This Bushfire Emergency Warning Message is in place for the following area(s) Mosquito Hill and Tooperang.
The MOSQUITO HILL fire is travelling in a North Easterly direction towards Mosquito Hill and Tooperang. There is a risk to lives and homes.
The uncontrolled fire is burning in Scrub.


http://www.cfs.sa.gov.au/site/home/criim...17580000440.jsp
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-31/emergency-warning-issued-for-mosquito-hill-bushfire/7062330


Yep, Very close to my place, Within 1.5K's
Luckily the CFS and other emergency services jumped on this pretty quick
There were nine planes and the sky crane helicopter on it all afternoon along with the ground crews
They were flying directly over my place and if it wasn't for their efforts this could have been a major event

[url=[URL=http://s277.photobucket.com/user/purnong_2008/media/IMG_20151231_154804_zpsnbkgjyzh.jpg.html][/url]]Photobucket[/url]

[url=[URL=http://s277.photobucket.com/user/purnong_2008/media/IMG_20151231_151348_zpsuluaxzo0.jpg.html][/url]]Photobucket[/url]


Edited by Purnong (31/12/2015 23:11)

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#1356328 - 01/01/2016 02:02 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1731
Loc: Adelaide Hills
i was out there today on mt lofty strike team. we working working between kokoda rd and olsenrd on the deep creek rd end.

some bloody tough terrain

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#1356444 - 01/01/2016 21:13 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Eevo]
Purnong Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 124
Loc: Tooperang, SA
Originally Posted By: Eevo
i was out there today on mt lofty strike team. we working working between kokoda rd and olsenrd on the deep creek rd end.

some bloody tough terrain


Hey Eevo, great job from you guys getting the fire under control so quickly
Much appreciation from this family mate, Thanks

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#1356449 - 01/01/2016 22:16 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1731
Loc: Adelaide Hills
no problem. those farm fighting units are worth their weight in gold!


Edited by Eevo (01/01/2016 22:18)

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#1357531 - 07/01/2016 00:47 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Skysthelimit Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2008
Posts: 1131
Loc: Gladstone Sth Aust

Nice art work today resulting from the high winds pushing through those cirrus clouds.

[/URL]][/url] ][/URL]][/url]


even spotted a camouflaged crocodile smile




Edited by Skysthelimit (07/01/2016 00:51)
Edit Reason: wrong caption

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#1357689 - 08/01/2016 10:05 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Chris #3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2009
Posts: 1891
Loc: Semaphore SA

Quote:
Australia's main weather information services from the Bureau of Meteorology went down on Friday morning, affecting everything from temperature readings to radar imagery for airports.
A "major network problem" disrupted services this morning, one bureau staff member said, adding that technicians were working to fix it.
Temperature readings on the bureau's website were all stuck at 6am AEDT Friday, as were the radar loops.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weathe...l#ixzz3wbQPFJKQ

Wonder if it's related to that hack?

Nice croc stl smile
_________________________
GFS Stormcast by BSCH




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#1357812 - 09/01/2016 11:50 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Chris #3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2009
Posts: 1891
Loc: Semaphore SA
Some pretty dynamic high clouds around at semaphore. Lots of patterns and textures and some cirrus trying to do a Cb impression (mini-Cb)
_________________________
GFS Stormcast by BSCH




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#1358849 - 16/01/2016 02:27 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Unstable Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/01/2007
Posts: 3591
Loc: Adelaide
Here's gfs and access model predictions for 00Z CST next Wednesday, saved at about 130am Saturday morning 16-1-16. It's only four days away so maybe something significant could happen weatherwise around that time.



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Email: weather at internode.on.net

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#1358883 - 16/01/2016 16:50 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 615
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
Looks like any hope of some rain this week is now gone according to the latest forecast

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#1358884 - 16/01/2016 17:15 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: willitrainagain]
Unstable Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/01/2007
Posts: 3591
Loc: Adelaide
The model gfs still thinks highly of around mid-week for rain smile

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Email: weather at internode.on.net

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#1358887 - 16/01/2016 17:27 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
kgb007 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/12/2010
Posts: 1515
Loc: Hope Valley, SA
GFS very unreliable! Look at Access G and EC, more reliable, Access R can be quite good in short term (3 days).

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#1358899 - 16/01/2016 19:45 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7769
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Several runs of the same forecast suggest the rains predicted (approx. 19th-22nd) are a high probability.

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#1358901 - 16/01/2016 19:49 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 615
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
Hope so

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#1358902 - 16/01/2016 19:52 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7769
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Rains would be a welcome relief in what would otherwise be a serious drought situation. For example, water fills reservoirs, streams and creeks, and provides stimulus for vegetation for feed.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (16/01/2016 19:55)

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#1358915 - 16/01/2016 21:52 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: kgb007]
Unstable Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/01/2007
Posts: 3591
Loc: Adelaide
Originally Posted By: kgb007
GFS very unreliable! Look at Access G and EC, more reliable, Access R can be quite good in short term (3 days).


I'll believe accessg is more reliable than gfs only if a five year day by day comparison proves it beyond reasonable doubt Kgb wink Fortunately for the present purposes accessg also thinks favorably of the coming mid-week. Here's its latest run for 00Z Thursday:

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Website http://sasnows.com
Email: weather at internode.on.net

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#1358937 - 17/01/2016 10:25 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
split_city Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2008
Posts: 1034
Loc: Port Noarlunga, South Australi...
I'm going to be selfish and say I don't want any rain mid-week. For the last 3 years, we have had to cancel trips during my holidays due to extreme heat or rain. The weather gods have teased us over the last couple of weeks so hopefully this will continue.

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