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#1358968 - 17/01/2016 15:27 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: split_city]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7768
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: split_city
I'm going to be selfish and say I don't want any rain mid-week. For the last 3 years, we have had to cancel trips during my holidays due to extreme heat or rain. The weather gods have teased us over the last couple of weeks so hopefully this will continue.

If it's any consolation, I don't want an extreme deluge smile .

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#1359049 - 18/01/2016 13:09 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
kgb007 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/12/2010
Posts: 1515
Loc: Hope Valley, SA
Looking at models this morning Adelaide will be lucky to see even 5mm this week.

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#1359055 - 18/01/2016 13:53 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Eevo Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1731
Loc: Adelaide Hills
come on 100mm!

i can dream cant i?

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#1359059 - 18/01/2016 14:28 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Becoming unsettled and very troughy from Wednesday, watch Friday with interest could be widespread showers and storms locally smile
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

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#1359061 - 18/01/2016 14:29 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Eevo]
kgb007 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/12/2010
Posts: 1515
Loc: Hope Valley, SA
Originally Posted By: Eevo
come on 100mm!

i can dream cant i?


Bahahaha! That's the only place that it will happen, in your dreams! Nice one Eevo! laugh

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#1359062 - 18/01/2016 14:33 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Eevo Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1731
Loc: Adelaide Hills
i can recall getting 100mm in 1 day twice in the last 2 years.
once was in feb.

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#1359079 - 18/01/2016 16:10 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 615
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
Iwas greenkeeper at nairne golf club.
we had 125mm in feb...I think it was 2000

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#1359136 - 18/01/2016 22:24 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Unstable Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/01/2007
Posts: 3591
Loc: Adelaide
There happens to be a rather speccie surface and upper low in the south-west area of western australia. It's a good opportunity to see what some of the upper level model charts look like for such a system.

Below is the total totals (TT) and the 300 hPa (hectapascal) wind gfs chart for 00Z Tuesday tomorrow for southern western australia, and the same kind of gfs chart for 06Z this coming Friday for south australia: I haven't found a good brief description of the TT scale on the charts yet.







Edited by Unstable (18/01/2016 22:28)
Edit Reason: deleted a TT scale
_________________________
Website http://sasnows.com
Email: weather at internode.on.net

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#1359144 - 19/01/2016 01:34 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Unstable Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/01/2007
Posts: 3591
Loc: Adelaide
Here is one index I found for total totals but it's clearly not the one gfs are using in the above charts, which I have not been able to locate anywhere.
Source: http://weather.ou.edu/~abell/total.html (copy and paste)
"The Total Totals Index is a measure of thunderstorm potential. It is derived from the temperature lapse rate between 850 mb and 500 mb and moisture content at 850 mpse rate between 850 mb and 500 mb and moisture content at 850 mb.
Less Than 43 Thunderstorms Unlikely
44 to 45 Isolated Moderate Thunderstorms
46 to 47 Scattered Moderate, Few Heavy Thunderstorms
48 to 49 Scattered Moderate, Few Heavy, Isolated Severe Thunderstorms
50 to 51 Scattered Heavy, Few Severe Thunderstorms, Isolated Tornadoes
52 to 55 Scattered to Numerous Heavy, Few to Scattered Severe Thunderstorms, Isolated Tornadoes
Greater Than 55 Numerous Heavy, Scattered Severe Thunderstorms, Few to Scattered Tornadoes"
_________________________
Website http://sasnows.com
Email: weather at internode.on.net

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#1359625 - 22/01/2016 00:43 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Chris #3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2009
Posts: 1891
Loc: Semaphore SA
Got these bright specks on my photos. Thought dust would have a darker/smudgier effect?

Any ideas?
_________________________
GFS Stormcast by BSCH




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#1359629 - 22/01/2016 00:57 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Chris #3]
Chris #3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2009
Posts: 1891
Loc: Semaphore SA
Originally Posted By: Chris #3
Got these bright specks on my photos. Thought dust would have a darker/smudgier effect?

Any ideas?


haha I think they're probably stars. Just looked weird seeing some through a seemingly solidly dark tree.
_________________________
GFS Stormcast by BSCH




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#1360389 - 25/01/2016 18:51 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Unstable Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/01/2007
Posts: 3591
Loc: Adelaide
618pm Monday 25th Jan
The models are having fun trying to predict the weather for late this week and early next week, due to a predicted upper low and surface low over the south-east of Australia. Here's a predicted scenario that favours part of SA - EC 00Z Saturday 30th January. Upper lows over the south-east of australia don't normally retrograde westwards into sa but sometimes it does happen. One could hope that the south-east and western victoria gets some useful rain out of this complex and difficult to forecast system anyway.

_________________________
Website http://sasnows.com
Email: weather at internode.on.net

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#1360674 - 26/01/2016 18:49 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Eevo Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1731
Loc: Adelaide Hills
forcast has 10mm for friday.
rejoice!

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#1360679 - 26/01/2016 19:05 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Not sure if this is the right place, we have been passed down through a deceased estate an old telescope.

We know nothing about it and from google it seems it is quite rare these days to have one. We just want to move it on and would like to know how much its worth.

Details are:
Celestron SP(super) C8 Schmidt-Cassegrain
8"(200mm)aperture...f/10 (2000mm focal length) product #11025

Judging by the research I have done today, its worth somewhere between $800-$5000 lol, just need to define that a little smile

Would appreciate any help

Cheers Dale
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

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#1360684 - 26/01/2016 19:23 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
AstroMick Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 18
Loc: Heathfield
Hi Dale,

I suggest you contact
http://www.iceinspace.com.au/forum/index.php

You could advertise your scope there or contact Matthew @
http://www.telescopes-astronomy.com.au/


Kind Regards,
Mick

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#1360689 - 26/01/2016 19:39 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Thanks for the quick reply Mick, great info

Cheers smile
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

Top
#1360722 - 26/01/2016 22:36 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Unstable]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7768
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: Unstable
618pm Monday 25th Jan
The models are having fun trying to predict the weather for late this week and early next week, due to a predicted upper low and surface low over the south-east of Australia. Here's a predicted scenario that favours part of SA - EC 00Z Saturday 30th January. Upper lows over the south-east of australia don't normally retrograde westwards into sa but sometimes it does happen. One could hope that the south-east and western victoria gets some useful rain out of this complex and difficult to forecast system anyway.


I think it may be a cold break near Friday if it does happen.

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#1360727 - 26/01/2016 23:02 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17701
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
yer looks close to 7-8C below average on Friday, maybe also saturday depending on which model gets it right....
At this stage I'd say 21C-22C on Friday.
The best thing about it though is the rainfall.... good chance we will see at least 10mm+, possibly even up to 20-30mm in wetter spots...

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#1360861 - 27/01/2016 15:38 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
liz Offline
Wind Speed Queen

Registered: 02/12/2001
Posts: 1919
Loc: Near Victor Harbor S.A.
Smoke drifting across from the ocean direction. Presume from Tassie fires.
Thinning out this afternoon.

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#1362323 - 30/01/2016 15:08 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17701
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Good to see most models throwing up the possibility of Ex TC Stan giving us some nice follow up falls Mon-Tues...


BOM's forecast now:
Cumulative rainfall totals until midnight Wednesday are expected to be 1 to 5 mm generally, increasing to 20 to 50 mm in the rain area to the west of about Ceduna, and 10 to 20 mm in the rain over Eyre and Yorke Peninsula's. The remainder of the agricultural area may see some higher falls of 5 to 15 mm, except in the Lower South East district. Isolated higher totals of 10 to 20 mm are also possible with the forecast thunderstorms in the north and west. Rainfall total amounts may vary depending on the movement and intensity of ex-tropical Cyclone Stan over the State.

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