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#1483072 - 29/12/2018 18:49 Re: Losing faith in the BoM [Re: Graham M]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5019
Loc: Wynnum
Here too at Wynnum North - OCF is the closest here.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2019-Jan11.4(160),Feb47.0(146),Mar253.8(130)YTD312.2(436)

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#1489077 - 04/02/2019 11:49 Re: Losing faith in the BoM [Re: Graham M]
Graham M Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2002
Posts: 425
Loc: Boambee East near Coffs Harbou...
Things improved slightly after my December post, but still over the five weeks the BoM has underestimated the Coffs maximum every day!

The weather patterns have been very similar to those in 2016 described at the start of this thread, with maxima usually within a degree or two of thirty. But back then the forecasts were in the low- to mid-thirties, this year they've been around 8 lower.

I haven't been assiduously taking notes (like you did above, Seabreeze?), and I've been overseas some of the time, so I just might have missed one or two occasions when they got it right. But it's tiresome to me and the small percentage of locals who give a rats' that the forecast this summer has almost always been two or three degrees low.

I'm reminded of occasions when the authorities alter the sequence and timing of traffic lights to reduce a perceived traffic flow problem, but end up making matters worse. After a week or two they revert to the earlier pattern, conceding that was the best available after all. It would appear that when the BoM tweaks their algorithms, there is little or no checking whether they've got it right. In this instance, being a few degrees out each day might be acceptable to some but when it's always the same direction over a period of months?


Edited by Graham M (04/02/2019 11:55)

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#1489101 - 04/02/2019 16:56 Re: Losing faith in the BoM [Re: Graham M]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5019
Loc: Wynnum
Gong back a few decades - Persistence forecasting ( averages ) - error rate +/- 5 degs, before " please explain ". Don't know what the rate is now.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2019-Jan11.4(160),Feb47.0(146),Mar253.8(130)YTD312.2(436)

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#1489107 - 04/02/2019 17:57 Re: Losing faith in the BoM [Re: Graham M]
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6699
Loc: Mulambin , Yeppoon Central Qld
BOM was saying for days Yeppoon 30 deg , and every day it hit 29 deg . So close but wrong .

Also said rain periods today and then changed it to a shower or two, but initially 2 days ago the forecast was for a shower or two.

Sometimes it is easier to just not rely on the BOM for forecasts.


Edited by Vinnie (04/02/2019 17:58)
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#1489124 - 04/02/2019 19:21 Re: Losing faith in the BoM [Re: Graham M]
bbowen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/03/2011
Posts: 161
Vinnie have a think about alllllll the variables that go into a prediction, and you are concerned that they were off by a degree. Some perspective is needed I think.

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#1489142 - 04/02/2019 21:10 Re: Losing faith in the BoM [Re: Vinnie]
Graham M Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2002
Posts: 425
Loc: Boambee East near Coffs Harbou...
Vinnie, if the BoM were consistently one degree out for us here I'd be over the moon.

The three reasons most people I speak to have no faith in BoM forecasts for Coffs ...

(1) The weather station is in a location not representative of most of the city. It's very close to the coast, whereas the city is a few kilometres inland. The city and western suburbs are frequently five or more degrees warmer during the day.
(2) Forecasts don't include humidity which to many is a more important indicator of comfort than temperature. (When I raised this with the BoM a year or two ago they directed me to an obscure page labelled "beta" that included humidity in its three-hour forecasts but you really have to look hard.)
(3) As is the theme of this thread, forecasts sometimes mysteriously stray way off the mark and remain so for weeks or months.


Edited by Graham M (04/02/2019 21:11)

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#1489144 - 04/02/2019 21:10 Re: Losing faith in the BoM [Re: bbowen]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6203
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: bbowen
Vinnie have a think about alllllll the variables that go into a prediction, and you are concerned that they were off by a degree. Some perspective is needed I think.


Exactly!!
The BOM aren't perfect, and that's perfectly understandable. The climate and day to day weather are still really an inexact science. Yes, they get it wrong occasionally, but
overall, I think it would be a bastard of a job and they do pretty well with the majority of their forecasts.
In the end, it's beyond their control to keep everyone happy with whatever forecast they put out. A general forecast for an area will have one person saying they got it wrong because it didn't rain in their backyard, and they'll have a 100 people happy because it did.

My advice is to stay away from social media platforms and comments on the weather. The absolutely killer of of society

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#1489162 - 05/02/2019 07:48 Re: Losing faith in the BoM [Re: Graham M]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1908
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Worried about 1 deg .Imagine no internet ,power ,tv,radio after a solar storm . You will have to learn to look outside away from the keyboard. And well said Homer
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Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.

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#1489163 - 05/02/2019 08:00 Re: Losing faith in the BoM [Re: Graham M]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1908
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Timed out on me lol.I have been trying to get several home weather stations accrete with Stevenson screens and haven't even come close lol.
Can get most things close but temp have delay in readings and higher temp readings are high ,colder temps are close. When i get to 1 deg out i will be happy. lol
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.

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#1489166 - 05/02/2019 08:30 Re: Losing faith in the BoM [Re: ozone doug]
Graham M Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2002
Posts: 425
Loc: Boambee East near Coffs Harbou...
I assume you meant to reply to Vinnie, not me?

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#1489167 - 05/02/2019 08:32 Re: Losing faith in the BoM [Re: Graham M]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5019
Loc: Wynnum
Everywhere there are micro climates. So The BoM site their equipment as representative of the " general area ".

It is impossible to satisfy all.

The only way to satisfy all seems to be to have an AWS on every hill or slight rise in the ground, in every gully or slight depression in the ground, on every building, in every yard, on every footpath - and so on - and average out the lot, or have a forecast for every 10 metres along the ground and every metre above the ground.

A similar argument continues to rage along in another thread regarding sea temperatures.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2019-Jan11.4(160),Feb47.0(146),Mar253.8(130)YTD312.2(436)

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#1489168 - 05/02/2019 08:39 Re: Losing faith in the BoM [Re: retired weather man]
Graham M Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2002
Posts: 425
Loc: Boambee East near Coffs Harbou...
Originally Posted By: retired weather man
It is impossible to satisfy all.


So you strive to satisfy the majority.

Their site is not representative of the city.


Edited by Graham M (05/02/2019 08:40)

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#1489170 - 05/02/2019 09:13 Re: Losing faith in the BoM [Re: Graham M]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1908
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
My comments were mine not at anybody.Everyone is free to say what they like.
I am going to move my Stevenson screen into the shade a bit more as i seem to get higher temps when the box gets direct sunlight . I did install a computer fan on a solar panel to circulate the air from the bottom but didn't make much difference. Bit like antennas keep playing till you like it lol.


Edited by ozone doug (05/02/2019 09:21)
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.

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#1490694 - 17/02/2019 14:33 Re: Losing faith in the BoM [Re: Graham M]
Graham M Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2002
Posts: 425
Loc: Boambee East near Coffs Harbou...
In the fortnight since my last post, I've gathered some statistics ...



Standard deviation of errors is 2.9 degrees (if my calculations are correct!).

(The forecast maximum for February 13 was revised up from 34 to 37 on the morning of February 13, which would make the error -2.9 for that day.)

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#1490778 - 18/02/2019 00:53 Re: Losing faith in the BoM [Re: Graham M]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2154
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Urban island effect ?

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#1492737 - 01/03/2019 11:51 Re: Losing faith in the BoM [Re: Graham M]
Graham M Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2002
Posts: 425
Loc: Boambee East near Coffs Harbou...
Looks like someone's finally tweaked something, after three months! The last ten days have been back to the BoM's usual accuracy standards, usually within a degree or two, and the errors have not all been in the same direction: +1.1, -0.3, -2.0, -1.2, -2.0, -1.2, +0.6, -0.7, -0.5, -1.2

Standard deviation of the errors for the ten days February 19-28 was a much better 1.2

It's still a worry how it seems comeone can input a dodgy variable and not notice for months.

But for now, thank you BoM, thank you Blair, thank you ball boys.


Edited by Graham M (01/03/2019 11:54)

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#1492741 - 01/03/2019 12:18 Re: Losing faith in the BoM [Re: Graham M]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7897
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Did I read somewhere that the BOM has performed a recent re-tweek of Aus historic temperature records which resulted in the ABC telling us we've had a record hot February?

....or was it just twitter noise?

For the record, February here in SE Vic was another cool one, as was last years. In Gippsland not a single 40C day, the month also contained a week of quite cool and cloudy weather. ......which saved "Lights-Off" Lily (our energy minister) further embarrassment.

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#1492764 - 01/03/2019 16:50 Re: Losing faith in the BoM [Re: Graham M]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 863
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
So BoM were pretty spot on with there summer temp outlook.

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#1494122 - 13/03/2019 17:19 Re: Losing faith in the BoM [Re: Graham M]
Delta-T Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 133
Loc: Peachester
I've discovered a massive problem with the BOM.

If you're on Mt Kanigan radar you can't click to Mt Staplton in one go. I've written to the suggestion box pointing this out three times! (I actually have) and no-one seems to want to get off their fat, bought and paid for asses and fix it. How can we trust them with other stuff like weather forecasts or sigmets...

No more Mr Nice guy, I'm calling it out right now if you want proof click here for the smoking gun. All it needs is one more effing arrow, typical.

And btw, there is no way the ECS is under 3.


Edited by Delta-T (13/03/2019 17:20)

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