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#1359323 - 20/01/2016 10:23 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10147
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Rose Bay cam shows a grey day in Hobart, current temp about 14. No precip though.

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#1359351 - 20/01/2016 14:40 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 740
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Hi all , yes it's a bit grey down here in Hobart . A combination of low cloud and smoke haze . Only about 22 here in the Suburbs , but sure is sweaty by Hobart standards , humidity 52 %.
I nearly feel of the chair laughing when I read the forecast , medium (60%) chance of showers and 1 to 2 mm. I've got better odds trying to win Powerball laugh
Tomorrow is looking more like the usual dry hot and sunny day we are becoming accustomed too the last 3 Summers.

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#1359370 - 20/01/2016 16:43 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 740
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Well the cloud is gone and so is any chance of rain , sun is back and the wind is gusting up to 44kmr.
The forecast tomorrow is 25 degrees with a high fire danger, the days following are not much cooler either . So how long can we dodge the threat of a fire in the South. The fires up North are causing some real problems and looking at the forecast up there it looks like several days in row of 28 degrees.

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#1359442 - 21/01/2016 09:24 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10147
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yes you are like me - sick and tired of dryness and heat. Completely OVER IT today. I am tired from poor sleep and not functioning well in an office with minimal aircon and no airflow, not to mention no insulation in this tin shed!!!!!

Desperately waiting for March to arrive and some cooler nights.

GFS thinks you might get a nice cold change around the 29th. Hope you do. One of the models has a low forming over Tas next week, hope it's in the correct position to give the east a good drink.

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#1359462 - 21/01/2016 11:03 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 740
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Morning all from Hobart , nothing new down this way . Just a coolish morning quickly heating up with a lovely brown and grey smoke haze.
From what I can gather things in the Central North are taking a turn for the worse , the fire sizes are increasing. Crews from Interstate are being asked to help with over 500 firefighters on the ground. The worst areas are out the back of Deloraine near the Mole Creek and Chudleigh area. At the base of the Central Plateau . I was up that way in October , for a holiday.
The Mole Creek caves are amazing and of course the Mole Creek Hotel is the home of the Thylacine Museum . Also Chudleigh is home to a big Honey area , and also a fresh water Salmon grower and processor. So there is lots of great Tassie stuff up that way , lets hope they can keep it all safe.

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#1359616 - 21/01/2016 23:36 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 740
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
A really putrid evening in Hobart , I can't see the city for the thick smoke. Took the bins out and the air quality is non existent , not a breath of wind. Fires up North now really starting to cause major problems. There has to be better places to spend the warm season in Australia , where at least it might rain once in a while.

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#1359658 - 22/01/2016 08:25 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 2025
Loc: Westbury
Certainly feels like we are descending to hell. The endless warmth, the scorched ground, most towns quickly running out of water, hydro are out of water and the fires and thick smoke really make it feel like something bad is happening. At least in some of the previous warm summers we had solid rain in the seasons leading up to it, but not this time. Air quality this week has been pretty dire.

Be a happy day when this breaks and the air clears. Rain just clipping the north west coast this morning. At least next week looks cooler and has some showers forecast for most days (central north).


Edited by Snowies (22/01/2016 08:28)

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#1359672 - 22/01/2016 09:48 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10147
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Guys, I feel for you down there.

Access has a depression off your east coast mid/late next week, has been on the models for a few days, I'm hoping it happens.

GFS is reasonably similar so fingers crossed for a rain event in the second half of next week.

With the prevailing westerly quadrant winds, any fire in the western areas will provide smoke for much of the state as you know only too well.

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#1359675 - 22/01/2016 10:04 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 2025
Loc: Westbury
The fires in the western tiers are affecting the Central north, clears at times but has been persistent. Further north west it hasn't been too bad, bit of smoke over wynyard/burnie but it then blows out to sea.

Launcestons PM2.5 reached 600 this week, anything over 20 isn't great. Sheffield and Devonport are both over 200 this morning.

http://www.dhhs.tas.gov.au/publichealth/alerts/air

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#1359678 - 22/01/2016 10:09 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10147
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Dan - really hope next week gives you some good rain.

Is Basslink still off air?

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#1359693 - 22/01/2016 10:41 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: MOUNTAIN h2o]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 947
Loc: West Coast, TAS, 310m ASL / Bu...
Morning all

Originally Posted By: MOUNTAIN h2o
There has to be better places to spend the warm season in Australia , where at least it might rain once in a while.


H2O, Having driven South from Cairns in the last few days (in Byron today). I can say it is pretty much the same everywhere. Had a few showers leaving on Tuesday, between Cairns and Cardwell. After that its been hot, dry and brown. It was however a lovely green up through the Tweed River Valley then onto Nimbin and back down to Byron.

Dave, Got my fingers crossed that Access and GFS are on the money.

Snowies, Looking at TFS website the number of fires seems to be growing. Nothing close enough to worry about at my place on the West Coast, yet. One fire burning between Strahan and Queenstown at the moment, according to TFS.
Hope we don't get more lightning with the next change.

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#1359696 - 22/01/2016 11:05 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10147
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Hello P - enjoying your long road trip?

Detouring through Bathurst??

We have greened up but, it is fools green, soil is only damp on top with a storm last week. However after 6 or more months of pathetic precip, I think up here we might just be about to get improved rain chances. It actually looks alright around here at the moment but a few hot days would quickly show the real thing.

Having said that, sadly even though we are not great, it seems we are better off that much of Tassie.

Yes P if you heat away from the coastal strip in NSW it is way way more dry. Until about 3 weeks ago, there were places in western NSW who had not seen more than 2 or 3 mm at a time for about 3 or more years. Luckily western areas had some rain just before Christmas.

Tassie's turn has to come some day surely.

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#1359698 - 22/01/2016 11:20 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: DaveM]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 947
Loc: West Coast, TAS, 310m ASL / Bu...
Hey Dave

Its been great thanks. Don't know which way I'm going to head from here. Taking it as it comes smile

Was just checking out your local thread, sure looks like you're about to get wet. grin Enjoy

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#1359699 - 22/01/2016 11:29 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10147
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
If you want to, come this way, have a spare room. smile

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#1359793 - 22/01/2016 15:20 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 947
Loc: West Coast, TAS, 310m ASL / Bu...
Cheers Dave,

May take you up on that one day. Same goes.

Getting any rain?

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#1359811 - 22/01/2016 15:52 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10147
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Pelting down here at the moment. wish I could send some to the Apple Isle.

I suspect we are feeling the breakdown of El Nino and may have more rain next week. Hopefully we are gradually breaking our drought down.

Now we have to do some rain dances for Tassie folk.

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#1360274 - 25/01/2016 09:38 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10147
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Really hopeful of some quite good rains down there later this week. Particularly in the eastern half.

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#1360296 - 25/01/2016 11:35 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 740
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Hi all from Hobart,
The last 3 days have seem maximums in the high 20's here in the suburbs.
A change has come through about 6:30 pm last night dropping the temps and bringing with it 0.6 of welcome rain.
Currently sitting around 18 degrees here in the suburbs with overcast conditions , but so far not a drop of rain since 9:00am.
At least the glaring sun is hidden today and the temps are nice.
cool


Edited by MOUNTAIN h2o (25/01/2016 11:36)

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#1360299 - 25/01/2016 12:04 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10147
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
G'day M, really hoping that trough gets you wet in the 2nd half of this week. Enjoy the overcast. smile

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#1360332 - 25/01/2016 16:41 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 740
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
BOM has the news out for Hobart Saturday , 6 to 20mm of rain smile
But they also have the chance of rain at 60% ?
A little bit better than a 50/50 chance ?
We live in hope smile

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