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#1362818 - 31/01/2016 12:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Dipole Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/01/2013
Posts: 319
Loc: Hervey Bay 48m,Tuross Head
Cloud near the dateline finally returning to neutral territory after spending most of 2015 in the negative. A good atmospheric indicator of El Nino diminishing.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Cloudiness (click to enlarge)


Edited by Dipole (31/01/2016 12:25)
Edit Reason: spelling

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#1362876 - 31/01/2016 14:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1501
Loc: Kingaroy
The question is now: will the shift towards a wetter pattern continue or will it switch back to dry like it did in 2003?

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#1362900 - 31/01/2016 15:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Dipole Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/01/2013
Posts: 319
Loc: Hervey Bay 48m,Tuross Head
We seem to be getting inflows from a warm Indian ocean, that seems to be the source of moisture atm. It it very odd to me that all or most of that moist air crosses our dry continent to land near us.
That IO pattern seems to be breaking up http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

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#1363004 - 31/01/2016 20:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2513
Loc: Buderim
Most of the moisture for the recent rains along the Qld coast came from the Pacific Ocean. The winds are only westerly enough for Indian Ocean to reach us on this side quite high up in the atmosphere where it is too cold to carry much moisture. But the higher up in the atmosphere the clouds are the colder they are and the more visible they are on satellite.

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#1363025 - 31/01/2016 21:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 1983
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
CFS is still predicting warm neutral later in the year, although we are in the great ENSO unpredictability time of the year. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

I can not see where there has been any change in the dry El Nino weather pattern yet.

The monsoon is only back now after a long time gone. There has still not been a widespread rain signal in Qld. What we have had so far is sporadic storms more akin to what you see in October.

Nino 3.4 is still at +2.5 according to this

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_enso.jsp?c=nino34
or

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

No lows in the coral sea. AFAIK there has only been one year since records started when there has never been a cyclone form in the coral sea in a season and that was only a few years back.

As far as I am concerned the El Nino is still holding us by the goolies.


Edited by RC (31/01/2016 21:32)

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#1363063 - 31/01/2016 23:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: RC]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17467
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: RC

As far as I am concerned the El Nino is still holding us by the goolies.


For most of the tropics it certainly appears that way. I think I brought the rain down from Cairns to this region.

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#1363073 - 01/02/2016 07:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 1983
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
We had 23% of average here for January.

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#1363083 - 01/02/2016 08:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1501
Loc: Kingaroy
Another warm neutral/El Nino year is not a good sign for agriculture in south east Asia, there was an article talking about the drought in Thailand, and doesn't paint a pretty picture if it continues. Come on La Nina.

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#1363092 - 01/02/2016 09:38 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Dipole Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/01/2013
Posts: 319
Loc: Hervey Bay 48m,Tuross Head
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Most of the moisture for the recent rains along the Qld coast came from the Pacific Ocean. The winds are only westerly enough for Indian Ocean to reach us on this side quite high up in the atmosphere where it is too cold to carry much moisture. But the higher up in the atmosphere the clouds are the colder they are and the more visible they are on satellite.

Good point, Mike, it has to be so with this drenching humidity.
Satellite direction is one indicator, the other is the inland NW origin of the "spear shaped" line of storm cells.They sometimes seemed to shift eastward and hit the coast(e.g.Hervey Bay on friday night) but their origin is inland. Am I reading this correctly?

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#1363113 - 01/02/2016 11:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2513
Loc: Buderim
Storms move with the mid level winds, which were more a NW direction compared to the lower level winds which were closer to Northerly. Storms form inland because it is hotter. Also if the surface is higher up on the ranges then air would actually become hotter if it was lowered to sea level, so that is a further advantage.

I suspect the NW slope of the line of storms may relate to a slight atmospheric front in the middle levels, but someone more knowledge may better explain this. I believe that much higher rainfall totals just on the coast are a result of additional moisture being available as the storms being driven from the NW by mid level winds cross over the higher levels of moisture carried by N or even N-NE surface winds near the coast and suck the moist air up into the system.

As best as I can tell from windstream charts the air at the very surface has been coming from the coral sea, and although the direction locally is from land if you follow the wind streams back they curve around a high pressure in the coral sea to be more north easterly further north. In the mid levels they are from further west and I think quite a lot of moisture for the current even has come from around the gulf of carpentaria and maybe as far west as the Timor Sea. If you trace these wind streams back further they bend more NE as they cross the equator and so these winds started picking up moisture in the far NW Pacific, with probably quite a lot of moisture also from the area around Indonesia and PNG which I would consider neither Pacific or Indian, but maybe someone knows if this area is actually considered part of either ocean?

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#1363209 - 01/02/2016 17:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 1983
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Gees, you would not think it would stay hot El Nino type all this year as well.

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#1363450 - 02/02/2016 15:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 1983
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Latest ENSO wrap up out.

Quote:
Further easing of El Niņo

Issued on 2 February 2016

El Niņo remains strong, but continues its gradual decline. Climate models suggest a return to neutral levels in the second quarter of 2016.

Close to the equator, the surface of the Pacific Ocean has now cooled by 0.5 °C since the El Niņo peaked in late 2015. Below the ocean surface, cooler than average waters now extend into the central tropical Pacific Ocean. In the atmosphere, trade winds have recently returned to near-normal levels in the central and eastern Pacific, although the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been strongly negative in recent weeks. During Australia's northern wet season, it is not unusual to see big fluctuations in the SOI due to the passage of tropical systems, and hence its value may not be representative of the overall ENSO state.

Based on the 26 El Niņo events since 1900, around 50% have been followed by a neutral year, and 40% have been followed by La Niņa. Models suggest the neutral state is the most likely for the second half of 2016, followed by La Niņ, with a repeat El Niņo assessed as very unlikely. Historically, the breakdown of strong El Niņo events brings above average rainfall to some-but not all-parts of Australia in the first half of the year.

The Indian Ocean Dipole has little influence on Australian climate between December and April. However, Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures remain very warm across the majority of the basin which may provide extra moisture for rain systems across Australia.

Next update expected on 16 February 2016

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#1363535 - 02/02/2016 19:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5275
Loc: Not tellin!
I have said it before but once again, the sat image does not look very El Niņo to me. Especially Qld tonight. Yes it's not La Niņa yet but maybe things are starting to happen.

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#1363595 - 02/02/2016 22:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2605
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
CFS going for another major WWB starting around 22nd lasting for around a month.



Will be interesting to see what impact something like this might have on things if it comes to fruition.

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#1363672 - 03/02/2016 09:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2513
Loc: Buderim
A third year in a row starting with a pair of massive WWBs? Is something causing this? The NE Pacific blob of warm water? Previous el ninos in the TAO record have basically seen WWB die by at the latest mid February. If the later part of that forecast verifies with WWB activity continuing into early May then I think we would be looking at renewed warming and a high chance of a further el nino. Not sure how reliable such a forecast of WWB activity beyond a week or two is though, but if that is what is feeding into the CFS enso forecast for the rest of the year that would be why it is going for renewed warming late in the forecast period.

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#1363676 - 03/02/2016 09:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: adon]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17467
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: adon
I have said it before but once again, the sat image does not look very El Niņo to me. Especially Qld tonight. Yes it's not La Niņa yet but maybe things are starting to happen.


Certainly nothing like 83 Adon but I do recall the ElNino several years ago produced major troughing in Summer and plenty of rain before flipping into a full blown LaNina and the resulting Brisbane floods.
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#1363681 - 03/02/2016 10:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 1983
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
This site does not go anywhere near that sort of prediction timeline

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

How accurate are the long range wind forecasts? After all the MJO forecasts are wildly inaccurate past a few days.

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#1363683 - 03/02/2016 10:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1501
Loc: Kingaroy
I wonder what could be causing it? I could think of one possibility but we're not allowed to discuss it on here. The strong WWBs should only be strengthening the subsurface cold pool in the western Pacific even further so when we do snap back to a cooler wetter phase it will be dramatic.

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#1363687 - 03/02/2016 10:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 1983
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
If it is an unusual event not seen before the models would have nothing to work off so could also be wildly inaccurate.

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#1363692 - 03/02/2016 11:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Bello Weather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/07/2012
Posts: 354
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Yep, fascinating to watch but what RC said - the more unusual an event the harder it is to predict in advance. Saying that CFS has been absolutely consistent with a drop down to neutral then another slow climb up for 3.4. Joe Bastardi is staking all on a dramatic drop into La Nina which will then result in a significant drop in global average temps...if we don't see that drop we could be in trouble...global temps raised significantly by the Nino then sitting there, perhaps creating a new baseline.
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