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#1364237 - 05/02/2016 11:30 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: DaveM]
Winter_lover Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2016
Posts: 81
Loc: Tasmania, Rokeby Hobart Easter...
Originally Posted By: DaveM
Keep your eyes on the 14th/15th, good chance of a snowy change for the peaks and a broad area of much cooler air. Hopefully will help a bit. smile

I reckon this coming week will be your last long period of persistent above average warmth. Let's hope so smile

I don't reckon the average will stay near 25, maybe 23 or so.


Ah good news.
Like they say much easier to keep warm than to keep cool smile

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#1364241 - 05/02/2016 11:43 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 937
Loc: West Coast, TAS, 310m ASL / Bu...
Morning all

Hey Dave, good call. I was looking at that potential change myself yesterday. Didn't want to get too excited. Long way out yet so we can only hope it comes off. smile

Till then the its more of the same. Hot and dry.

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#1364243 - 05/02/2016 12:04 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10132
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
That change has been on long term GFS for a while & was there as soon as the time frame came onto Access. I think it's a good chance to eventuate.

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#1364301 - 05/02/2016 17:33 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 732
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Hi all and Welcome Winter_lover , I love that name . It will be great to get some second thoughts on Hobart weather . I'm sure everyone is over my constant whine . grin
Anyways , pretty much the same today in the Northern Suburbs ended up with around 28 degrees which is a lot warmer than town. And basically 36 degrees in the bloody tin shed which I worked . Looking forward to that cool change guys , PLEASE pray for us poke

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#1364494 - 06/02/2016 10:03 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10132
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Your nights are staying warm H, be alright if they cooled more, then the day isn't such a bother.

Winter Lover is certainly a name that could easily apply to pretty much everyone in this forum group!!! grin

Whine H???? you!!!! NEVER!!!!!! evillaugh poke

It's only because like me, you hate the heat smile And I certainly sypmathise with you there grin

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#1364546 - 06/02/2016 15:11 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 411
Loc: Hobart
Quote:
I just question why here in Hobart that the BOM always under predict what we all can see coming as a hot day. Typical examples yesterday 22 degrees predicted max and we ended up with 24.8 degrees. Again today 28 degrees predicted max , currently 31.2 degrees. It happens all the time , why ?


I transferred your question over from the other thread.

It's probably got to do with getting the timing of the seabreeze right. At times the wind over land will just be strong enough to eliminate an expected seabreeze arrival. On the other hand I have also noticed that on some days the expected maximum is not reached.

You should contact the BOM on their feedback form on the website for a more definitive answer - I do it all the time, they are always good with their answers.

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#1364558 - 06/02/2016 16:15 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: MOUNTAIN h2o]
Winter_lover Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2016
Posts: 81
Loc: Tasmania, Rokeby Hobart Easter...
Originally Posted By: MOUNTAIN h2o
Hi all and Welcome Winter_lover , I love that name . It will be great to get some second thoughts on Hobart weather . I'm sure everyone is over my constant whine . grin
Anyways , pretty much the same today in the Northern Suburbs ended up with around 28 degrees which is a lot warmer than town. And basically 36 degrees in the bloody tin shed which I worked . Looking forward to that cool change guys , PLEASE pray for us poke


Thanks, good to be here smile
Looks like another mild night tonight.
Minimum of 16c but will be hovering around 19-20 degrees most of the night.

Even more annoying is that we have a relative from QLD staying with us at the moment and they kept complaining that it's cold!

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#1364582 - 06/02/2016 17:45 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: DaveM]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 937
Loc: West Coast, TAS, 310m ASL / Bu...
Hi all

More of the same over here. Hot and dry. Boring.

Originally Posted By: DaveM
That change has been on long term GFS for a while & was there as soon as the time frame came onto Access. I think it's a good chance to eventuate.


To be honest Dave, I haven't taken too much notice of the models lately. Maybe if I had I may have noticed this change sooner. I don't really care much as to when it comes, however I'll be happy as a pig in mud when it does. Surely this hot, dry weather cant last too much longer.

Cold, wet and windy change...overdue!

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#1364754 - 07/02/2016 20:16 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1999
Loc: Westbury
Before rain


After rain


Edited by Snowies (07/02/2016 20:19)

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#1364798 - 08/02/2016 10:10 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10132
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Heeeeyyy FARMER DAN!!! smile

Big diff in those photos, the dry one more reminiscent of around here until the recent rain. We are drying out again though and we have a solid week of low 30's coming up with possibly a 35 next weekend. frown

That change still holding on the models smile

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#1364821 - 08/02/2016 12:33 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
orangeroughy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2012
Posts: 659
Loc: Orange, NSW
Before Rain: no sprinkler
After rain: sprinkler

..... confused
_________________________
NW Orange NSW 860m asl

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#1364826 - 08/02/2016 12:51 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10132
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
laugh

Well spotted O/R grin

How do you reply to that one Dan??

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#1364830 - 08/02/2016 13:15 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 732
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Hi all from Hobart , currently sitting on 24.6 in the city and close to 28 degrees here in the Northern Suburbs. Same old pattern as the last 3 days, searing heat and incredibly dry.
The same to come for a while yet I'm afraid and the talk of the possibility of more El Nino conditions above on the General Weather forum is the worst possible outcome imaginable.
The 20mm of rain water in the bird bath I have on the deck is back to dust again , and even the usually hardy Proteas are dying off. If we do have yet another El Nino this year and conditions continue it hard to imagine how dire that will be in this part of Australia.

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#1364842 - 08/02/2016 14:58 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1999
Loc: Westbury
Good spot... the sprinkler was well used in the first photo, just not on at the time I took the pick, the few shreds of green were down to the sprinkler. Vegies down the back still needing a drink after several days without rain - hence it was on yesterday...

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#1364849 - 08/02/2016 15:21 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10132
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yeah right!!!! grin

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#1364865 - 08/02/2016 17:10 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 732
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Hobart 27 degrees today and out here 31 degrees , looks like the latest forecast has that cool change next Sunday disappearing quickly. Looks like being average temps at least or more , still on track for a near record month.

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#1365097 - 09/02/2016 10:38 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10132
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
GFS is pulling the change a little further south but Access holding on.

I still believe it will be a turning point for the month of February, still warmth but I suspect the chance of any big heat rapidly diminishing now.

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#1365144 - 09/02/2016 16:49 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: Snowies]
orangeroughy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2012
Posts: 659
Loc: Orange, NSW
Originally Posted By: Snowies
Good spot... the sprinkler was well used in the first photo, just not on at the time I took the pick, the few shreds of green were down to the sprinkler. Vegies down the back still needing a drink after several days without rain - hence it was on yesterday...


Continuing the 'spot the difference'..... where did the plover go?
smile
_________________________
NW Orange NSW 860m asl

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#1365145 - 09/02/2016 16:50 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10132
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
smile PloverS smile

Well spotted except there were two. grin

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#1365164 - 09/02/2016 19:47 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
orangeroughy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2012
Posts: 659
Loc: Orange, NSW
Of course Hawkeye! wink There always are. Silly me! laugh
_________________________
NW Orange NSW 860m asl

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