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#1362567 - 30/01/2016 21:22 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7103
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Re: Potential from TC “Stan”
It seems to be the same one (feature) the current system was drawing 700 hPa moisture from. The westerlies look like they’re having a fair bit influence of late (last 2 weeks).

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#1362777 - 31/01/2016 10:34 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17498
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology South Australia

FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST AND NORTH WEST PASTORAL DISTRICTS

Issued at 9:37 am CDT on Sunday 31 January 2016
By the Bureau of Meteorology, South Australia.

The remnants of Ex-tropical Cyclone Stan will move into western parts of South Australia late Monday afternoon and evening, before weakening and moving over northern parts of the State on Tuesday. Heavy rain will develop from late Monday afternoon, with rainfall totals of 60 to 100 mm, falling over a period of 6 to 12 hours. Areas affected will be the West Coast district to the west of Ceduna, and over the south of the North West Pastoral district to the west of about Tarcoola.

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#1364179 - 05/02/2016 02:04 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1598
Loc: Bridgewater
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING

for DAMAGING WINDS

For people in parts of the
Adelaide Metropolitan and
Mount Lofty Ranges districts.

Issued at 12:47 am Friday, 5 February 2016.
Damaging winds, averaging 60-70 km/h are forecast in the warning area during the next several hours.
Locations that are likely to be affected include Sellicks Beach, Myponga Beach Normanville, Second Valley and Rapid Bay.

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#1364180 - 05/02/2016 02:05 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1598
Loc: Bridgewater
80km/h gust at Sellicks Hill about 1am

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#1364181 - 05/02/2016 05:24 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Unstable Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/01/2007
Posts: 3585
Loc: Adelaide
444am Friday 5th.
That's interesting Eevo. I wondered last night if there would be a gully wind at Paynham overnight but it hasn't eventuated unless it came and went while I was asleep. I can't hear any wind outside at present. At 4am the temp at the Lofty aws was 10.1 degrees with an ESE wind at 20kph. At Adelaide's Kent Town aws it was 14.9 degrees with a SSW wind at 2kph. At Sellicks Hill it was a SSE wind at 59kph (no temp guage). At Parafield it was 14.1 with an easterly wind at 4kph. Maybe the temperature differences are insufficient to let the prevailing wind push down onto the plain underneath the plains air.
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#1364520 - 06/02/2016 12:16 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2076
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
G'day all long time no write as i've only managed to get a new password to login after first 2 attempts came up with username and password not found

Now were into February i'm beginning to wonder if mother nature has turned off the marrow boiling element in her oven as Feb is always the hottest month for SA at the moment can only see temps in the high 20's happening

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#1364622 - 07/02/2016 00:10 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: rstewart84]
Unstable Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/01/2007
Posts: 3585
Loc: Adelaide
A common summer weather pattern has developed which can keep much of southern SA in a south-easterly airstream that can last with relatively minor variations for many days at a stretch. A persistent trough sits over the eastern states and highs coming across south of the bight are forced to ridge and to travel south-eastwards past tasmania under the eastern states trough. Below is a screen grab of gfs's predicted surface maps for the next few days I saved earlier today, and you can how as the highs move across and go under the eastern states trough we remain in a generally south-east wind.

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#1364665 - 07/02/2016 12:53 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14856
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Yer it sure is going to be a very long dry spell with an incredibly stagnant pattern, generally SE winds, afternoon seabreezes of varying strength and little cloud. Temps around 27-37C not much more or less. Very poor amount of moisture over the NE Indian or NW Aus. I can't see anything until at least the end of Feb when the pattern should weaken.

TS cool

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#1365117 - 09/02/2016 12:17 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Unstable Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/01/2007
Posts: 3585
Loc: Adelaide
It's the 91st anniversary of Adelaide's highest ever recorded 24 hour rainfall total this month.
Friday 6th February 1925
Severe thunderstorm over parts of Adelaide!
Daytime deluges and flooding brings chaos to the city.
New 24 hour city rainfall record set that still stands today!
Adelaide 24 hr total to 830am 7th February 557 points (141.5mm), North Adelaide 644 points (163.6mm).
Fireball explosion in Waymouth Street !

Details can be found on page 1 of the thread "South Australian weather history - some extreme weather events" here http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1208269/1

I think it's about time this record was broken again! smile
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#1365120 - 09/02/2016 12:36 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17498
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
as much as I'd like it to be broken, unfortunately our infrastructure would not handle it.
Damage would likely go into billions, and lives likely to be lost.

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#1365134 - 09/02/2016 14:59 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Unstable Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/01/2007
Posts: 3585
Loc: Adelaide
Fortunately another thunderstorm of that magnitude would likely only dump several inches on a few suburbs, so the destruction would probably be pretty limited in comparison to five plus inches over the entire greater adelaide area. Since we don't know what suburbs would be affected, floodproofing the greater adelaide area against such an event would involve proofing the whole of the gaa. My guess would be that planners have decided the most realistic strategy is to take the hit when it comes, bury any dead, repair the damage, and get on with life. Bit like Sydney I suppose - doubt it if would be considered worth hail-proofing the whole city. Or some of our cities and big towns that might be hit by a very infrequent earthquake or cyclone that could result in some deaths and injuries and billions of dollars of damage. A complex topic and we need hundreds of years of records to get a good indication of the frequency of such rare kinds of events.
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#1365137 - 09/02/2016 15:25 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2076
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
For another decent severe storm to happen anytime soon we need to get out of this dull southerly air stream that is keeping our marrow boiling/storm inducing temperatures from happening but it seems that Mother Nature would rather let us suffer storm deprivation syndrome

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#1365192 - 09/02/2016 23:53 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17498
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Unstable, you might find this map quite interesting... have a play around with the different flood mapping....
https://www.waterconnect.sa.gov.au/Systems/FAM/SitePages/Home.aspx

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#1365224 - 10/02/2016 12:00 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: teckert]
Unstable Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/01/2007
Posts: 3585
Loc: Adelaide
Thanks - looks very useful. If I understand the relevant map correctly I can see there's going to be a lot of surprised people if there's a "probable maximum flood" in the area covered by the "First to Fifth Creek Floodplain Mapping 2007".
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#1365253 - 10/02/2016 17:05 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Unstable]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 560
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Originally Posted By: Unstable
"probable maximum flood"


So I wonder what a "probable maximum flood" is?
The 1 in 500 chance was a fair bit smaller in comparison...

...

To answer my own question: "The extent of the PMF is generally the extent of the whole floodplain."


Edited by betsuin (10/02/2016 17:09)

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#1365268 - 10/02/2016 18:46 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Unstable Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/01/2007
Posts: 3585
Loc: Adelaide
Yes good question and before I quote the more extensive answer, for those who wonder whether edits such as betsuin's above appear on email notifications from weatherzone, I didn't receive notification of his edit either on the original notification or in a subsequent notification. This is what I received:
betsuin: Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Originally Posted By: Unstable
"probable maximum flood"
So I wonder what a "probable maximum flood" is?
The 1 in 500 chance was a fair bit smaller in comparison...

So if - note the IF - this is the case more generally, then if the author is about to post an important edit others need to know about, they may consider posting it as a separate post, even though a moderator may go tut tut. This might be particularly important in a weather system thread where you are eg chasing and want to add an edit that a tornado is bearing down on you and your vehicle won't start, to give an extreme example.
Now to the more extensive answer:
"What is PMF?
PMF stands for Probable Maximum Flood. This is the estimated largest flood that could possibly occur in an area and is a very rare and unlikely event. The extent of the PMF is generally the extent of the whole floodplain.
The PMF is sometimes modelled in flood studies so that emergency managers can understand the maximum possible extent of flooding that could ever occur in a location and plan accordingly. However, it is unusual for flood mitigation works to be designed for the PMF. If your property is shown as inundated in a PMF scenario there is a risk that you could be flooded, although this risk could be very low."
Source: https://www.waterconnect.sa.gov.au/Hazar...0estimated.aspx
[url=https://www.waterconnect.sa.gov.au/Hazard-Management/SitePages/How%20is%20the%20likelihood%20of%20a%20flood%20occurring%20estimated.aspx][/url]
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#1365291 - 10/02/2016 22:15 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 560
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
I live at the top of The Parade, here is an exagerated view (x4) of those plains:



Not so clear but one can almost imagine some water cascading down off the hills. I've walked up Gandy's Gully plenty of times and there are some rather large mitigation structures in there!

Would be nice to have a tool that shows up creek lines more clearly, wonder if GMT can do it for me...


Edited by betsuin (10/02/2016 22:21)

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#1365300 - 11/02/2016 05:12 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Unstable Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/01/2007
Posts: 3585
Loc: Adelaide
I say, that's a spectacular image! Wonder if it's an illusion that the plain looks very hummocky at least in the foreground half of the plain.
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#1365301 - 11/02/2016 05:24 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Unstable]
Unstable Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/01/2007
Posts: 3585
Loc: Adelaide
Originally Posted By: Unstable
It's the 91st anniversary of Adelaide's highest ever recorded 24 hour rainfall total this month.
Friday 6th February 1925
Severe thunderstorm over parts of Adelaide!
Daytime deluges and flooding brings chaos to the city.
New 24 hour city rainfall record set that still stands today!
Adelaide 24 hr total to 830am 7th February 557 points (141.5mm), North Adelaide 644 points (163.6mm). ...

This morning I came across a report of another over 500 point fall in a thunderstorm.
Bordertown district 27th November 1906: "terrific thunderstorm": "At Carew, ... it is reported that over 5 in. of rain and hail fell in a few hours". I posted details here
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1365299#Post1365299 (in South Australian weather history - some extreme weather events thread)
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#1365472 - 12/02/2016 13:52 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Unstable]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 560
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Originally Posted By: Unstable
Wonder if it's an illusion that the plain looks very hummocky at least in the foreground half of the plain.


The lumpy stuff is (mostly) real, sample resolution is a 30m x 30m square. The CBD shows up as hills as the building tops register as land height data!

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