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#1370904 - 19/03/2016 12:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Bello Weather Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/07/2012
Posts: 337
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Latest CFSv2 model runs are dropping quickly and look like coming into line with EC - which is cool neutral before climbing again towards at least neutral, perhaps warm neutral as we head through our Spring.
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#1370905 - 19/03/2016 12:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1589
SE Qld had a decent year last yr despite El Nino one of the better regions in Australia for rainfall & if anyone wants to debate me on this your welcome to find a deciles rainfall map for 2015, then they have 2-3 drier months and some people are in panic mode.. Try continuous drought like western Qld, SA, Vic and Tasmania for years then you will know what real dry is.


Edited by _Johnno_ (19/03/2016 12:32)
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#1370906 - 19/03/2016 12:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1589
CFSv2 is the only model out of whack nothing like the other models, first it kept us in warm neutral or el nino right until end of 2015 now it drops to cool neutral before it rises again later in the year. Sorry I know some people rely heavily on this model and not sure why but seems like bit all over the place to me and I have always learnt to look at the bigger picture at ALL the models and make an assessment instead of just focusing on one.
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#1370907 - 19/03/2016 12:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1589
I'm not saying I agree with this but looks like in The Weather Channel in the US has got us locked down for La Nina from mid year onwards as they look at there long range forecasts

https://weather.com/forecast/national/ne...B_WX_JB_31816_2


Edited by _Johnno_ (19/03/2016 12:38)
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#1370919 - 19/03/2016 14:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
Mike Hauber Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2457
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
CFSv2 is the only model out of whack nothing like the other models, first it kept us in warm neutral or el nino right until end of 2015 now it drops to cool neutral before it rises again later in the year. Sorry I know some people rely heavily on this model and not sure why but seems like bit all over the place to me and I have always learnt to look at the bigger picture at ALL the models and make an assessment instead of just focusing on one.


My thinking is to pay attention only to the models with some sort of demonstrated skill through the preditability barrier. These are CFS, EC, NASA and JMA. So this makes CFS one out of only 4 predicting el nino, and even one out of CFS and EC which are the two clear leading models. This is a stronger case than CFS being one out of a dozen or so, but of course a long way from being a certain (or even most likely) thing.

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#1370923 - 19/03/2016 15:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
CapeNlift Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/02/2016
Posts: 140

Chart does the talking.

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#1370929 - 19/03/2016 15:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: CapeNlift]
Orion Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/02/2001
Posts: 140
Loc: Tamworth NSW Australia
Originally Posted By: CapeNlift

Chart does the talking.


Hey do you have a link for this charting??

Jeff

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#1370932 - 19/03/2016 16:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6181
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
SE Qld had a decent year last yr despite El Nino one of the better regions in Australia for rainfall & if anyone wants to debate me on this your welcome to find a deciles rainfall map for 2015, then they have 2-3 drier months and some people are in panic mode.. Try continuous drought like western Qld, SA, Vic and Tasmania for years then you will know what real dry is.


No panic mode here, actually everything is still quite green. Our storm season has been pretty decent despite El-Nino but given the hit or miss nature of thunderstorms, some areas have missed out quite badly. This is why rain from onshore rain events rather than thunderstorms from inland trough systems are so important because they ensure *most* places at least get a good drop of rain, unfortunately it is those type of setups that have been lacking all summer. Like I said though, luckily enough we were able to receive some good convective type of rain from thunderstorms earlier in January.

BTW, from what I remember about CFS is it used to be a VERY reactive model, and from the sounds of it, it still is.

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#1370939 - 19/03/2016 17:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
CapeNlift Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/02/2016
Posts: 140
Orion its a subscription service model.

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#1370941 - 19/03/2016 17:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1482
Loc: Kingaroy
We did pretty well out of this El Nino here in the South Burnett late last year with all of the storms etc, what's next is the big question.

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#1370945 - 19/03/2016 18:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: CapeNlift]
Orion Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/02/2001
Posts: 140
Loc: Tamworth NSW Australia
Yes and the subscription link is??

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#1370947 - 19/03/2016 18:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
CapeNlift Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/02/2016
Posts: 140

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#1370948 - 19/03/2016 18:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Orion Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/02/2001
Posts: 140
Loc: Tamworth NSW Australia
Thanks smile

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#1370968 - 19/03/2016 22:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Cutofflow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2009
Posts: 93
Loc: North Central. VIC
The fuel for El-Nino is spent. Negative 3.4 values from May likely.



Cool water will begin to upwell at the Galapagos Islands



Weak MJO forecast for the Pacific. Trades and stronger surface currents to spread the upwelling water west.



Most of the cold water is still at depth in the Western Pacific. This cold water is now in the Equatorial under-current and will make its way to the Galapagos Island in about 6 months. This cold water here is really the La Nina of 2013. Its still there, just 150 metres down.

There is still a ton of warm water sticking around in the Eastern Pacific around the equator. Cold water circulating underneath in the equatorial under-current will have to push its way through this warm water hanging around at 10N and 10S in the East.

Which will win out is the question. In 2014, the developing El Nino petered out because of all the cold water left over from the previous La Nina’s in these exact same regions. This is what the models are struggling with at the moment because the developing La Nina of 2016 may get moderated by warm re-circulation and not much will happen. This is how the annual ENSO event gets disrupted with "double dip" or "triple dip" events i.e. ocean re-circ.


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#1370971 - 20/03/2016 00:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1482
Loc: Kingaroy
Shouldn't the trade winds push the warm water westward along the equator?

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#1370973 - 20/03/2016 00:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
CapeNlift Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/02/2016
Posts: 140

A very strong CCKW is down/welling cool water.

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#1370980 - 20/03/2016 09:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
CapeNlift Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/02/2016
Posts: 140
Some information about the cooling phase of a coupled kelvin wave aka cckw

These waves are eventually reflected at the western ocean boundary, generating upwelling equatorial Kelvin waves, which propagate into the eastern Pacific and offset the warming by
enhancing vertical cold advection. This negative feedback provides a mechanism for turning the coupled system to its opposite (La Nin˜ a) phase and sustaining the ENSO cycle.

WANG_103

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#1371320 - 24/03/2016 05:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Hopefull Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 960
Loc: Burpengary QLD
I know the SOI is just one factor but once again the pressures over Tahiti and French Polynesia are slowly trending down again and Darwin's is heading rapidly up.

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#1371321 - 24/03/2016 07:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 1848
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
I see that cool pool is still marching on despite the WWB that happened in February/March http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

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#1371332 - 24/03/2016 11:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1589
Interesting the BOM latest 3 month outlook have gone back to a drier signal for most of oz now for April when all along they were forecasting a wetter April for central and southern OZ, the same thing happened with March originally was predicted to be wetter than normal central and southern OZ and in Feb they forecasted a drier than normal March. So it seems like on the 11th hour they delay it for another month again... What's the chances in April they will predict May will generally be drier than normal? (at the moment they are predicting a wetter than normal May central and southern oz) Not sure I understand this theory back stepping the last minute.


Edited by _Johnno_ (24/03/2016 11:33)
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