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#1443009 - 01/12/2017 00:49 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Winter_lover Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2016
Posts: 97
Loc: Tasmania, Hobart
I have a feeling the forecast will be revised to 0-1mm of rain 50% which as you know in Hobart means it's not going to rain.

:-P

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#1443046 - 01/12/2017 09:21 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10186
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Gee I hope you guys get some sort of decent drink.

Hot night last night with 19 in Hobart.

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#1443056 - 01/12/2017 09:55 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 948
Loc: West Coast, TAS, 310m ASL / Bu...
Morning all

What a month with records being broken right up till yesterday.

Here's a few stats for the month as recorded here at home.

Mean max 23.4
Lowest max 8.5
Highest Max 34 yesterday

Mean min 8.7
Lowest min 0 on the 5th with a very light frost
Highest min 16

In comparison with BB's figures for days >
4 days >32C, 6 days >30C, 12 days >28C, 17 days >23C, and 8 consecutive days over 28C.

Rainfall Nov 17 82mm (driest month yet this year!)
Rainfall Nov 16 305mm

YTD Nov 17 2553mm
YTD Nov 16 3433mm

Down 880mm on same time last year.

BB, it's been drying out very quickly indeed. I'm surprised that TFS (Tasmanian Fire Service) did not declare fire permits required for the NW sooner. They have done so in the last few days.

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#1443058 - 01/12/2017 10:10 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 2065
Loc: Westbury
The models certainly backed the rain totals off shortly after the BOM put out their 4pm forecast yesterday - the 12Z EC forecast from Wednesday night was very favourable, especially the SE (up to 100mm), but the totals were reduced by more than half in the 00Z run late yesterday.

Most models now forecasting 10-20mm over the next few days, with most of it in the NE highlands. I reckon something between 20-40mm is on the cards (3 day total) - particularly if heavier showers or storms pass overhead.

I suspect the models were too optimistic in the earlier runs and a bit too conservative now. The north will do ok today and the SE will pick up showers over the weekend in the SE and some today.


Edited by Snowies (01/12/2017 10:10)

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#1443065 - 01/12/2017 10:31 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 470
Loc: Hobart
Situation doesn't look historically desperate according to the rainfall tracker ...

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/#tabs=Rainfall-tracker

Coastal east and north-east goes into record territory only for the combined winter-spring period.

Won't mean much to some farmers , always a tricky business.

Can't wait until BoM releases their monthly summary, not long to go for that

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#1443132 - 01/12/2017 16:27 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 2065
Loc: Westbury
Must give credit where credit is due, GFS didn't think it was going to pour with rain and now it seems everyone else has fallen into line. Just a bunch of showers in the eastern half on the weekend, nothing major, possible a bit heavier in the far NE.

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#1443180 - 01/12/2017 20:44 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2207
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Hi all,
Agree Snowies GFS was on the money.

I have had 3mm till 9am and a further 22mm since.

Not sure we will get heaps more!

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#1443216 - 02/12/2017 06:06 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 470
Loc: Hobart
Before we go on to other things here's the "skyscraper" November, the month to remember


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#1443301 - 02/12/2017 14:20 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2207
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
afternoon all,
3mm yesterday
33mm till 9am.
9mm since
Total 3 days =45mm

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#1443420 - 02/12/2017 23:11 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
BrightonBreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/07/2016
Posts: 214
Loc: Brighton, Tas 55m ASL
Evening all,

Seems as if that low to our East is going to swing in towards us a little more than first thought, looks like some decent rainfall expected with some places around the East coast and South east expecting up to 50mm!! shocked

Here's the updated forecast for the Southeast district:

"Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of rain. Rain possibly heavy at times. Winds southerly 40 to 60 km/h increasing to 55 to 75 km/h early in the morning then turning southwesterly in the early afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 7 and 11 with daytime temperatures reaching between 11 and 15."

SWW in place for the Southerly gales on the coasts, hopefully those rainfall totals eventuate getting some much needed moisture into the places that need it!

Had 15.4mm to 9am here at Brighton, and roughly 9mm after 9am.

A nice total for overnight down your way SF! Would've topped the tanks up a bit? smile

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#1443422 - 02/12/2017 23:18 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Winter_lover Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2016
Posts: 97
Loc: Tasmania, Hobart
Raining and windy here.
Feels like a nice winters night.

Think we will pick 5-10mm overnignt as it seems pretty settled in.

Hobart 22mm yesterday.
Currently 6.4mm and rising

Pretty good totals to come out of this event.
BOM is even saying 10-30mm possible for tomorrow.

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#1443424 - 02/12/2017 23:26 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Winter_lover Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2016
Posts: 97
Loc: Tasmania, Hobart
Geez that wind has some bite to it

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#1443425 - 02/12/2017 23:36 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
BrightonBreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/07/2016
Posts: 214
Loc: Brighton, Tas 55m ASL
Sure is cooler compared to the last few weeks hey WL, that Southerly has been picking up this evening driving the rain into the windows.

Getting gusts to around 53 km/h at home, hopefully people don't forget to tie stuff down.. Especially as it's not a common direction to be getting damaging winds, good to be going to bed hearing rain on the roof though! smile

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#1443428 - 02/12/2017 23:56 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Winter_lover Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2016
Posts: 97
Loc: Tasmania, Hobart
Yeah it's a welcome cool down.
Was getting a little fed up with humidity on Thursday.
(33 degrees)

Also getting the sideways rain lashing into the windows.
Sadly don't have a tin roof so i can't hear it that well in the bedroom.

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#1443440 - 03/12/2017 06:24 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2207
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Morning all.
Had another 33.8mm till 9am and 70mm for the event.
The low has developed closer that was intisipated to Tasmania and the rain and winds are both heavier.
The Mt is gusting over 120km hr.
Not so windy here just wet.
Some rain has made it to all dry parts of Tasmania ya.
Not for cherry growers they are all crying.

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#1443458 - 03/12/2017 08:59 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Sam T Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 07/11/2008
Posts: 31
Loc: Hobart or Launceston
From the Tas Police website:

Hazardous Roads and Road Closures
Sunday, 3 December 2017 - 7:14 am. Updated Sunday, 3 December 2017 - 8:00 am

Road Closures

Highland Lakes Road from Bothwell to Miena is closed due to snow.

Poatina Road, Poatina.

Was snow ever expected? If the temps stay down today the highlands could rack up a pretty serious amount!

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#1443498 - 03/12/2017 12:16 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Winter_lover Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2016
Posts: 97
Loc: Tasmania, Hobart
22mm Friday
37mm Yesterday
15mm and rising since 9am today!

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#1443523 - 03/12/2017 14:07 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2207
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Over 40cm of snow at our shack at Tods Corner Great Lake today, and power out with plenty of trees down the neighbors said.
Over 110mm for the 4 days.

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#1443537 - 03/12/2017 15:02 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
BrightonBreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/07/2016
Posts: 214
Loc: Brighton, Tas 55m ASL
Some very solid falls about! Quite surprising the snowfall up that way SF! Would've been a top weekend to be up there.

Constant rain all night from around midnight, just starting to drop off now.

At home we've had 27.6mm to 9am and a further 19.4mm till 3pm, total for the past 3 days or so of 63.6mm, should really green the paddocks up! smile

Also should note the storm force wind warning for the Lower East Coast and South East Coasts, Point Lesueur on Maria Island has really copped a battering with sustained winds of 90 km/h and gusts to 115 km/h.. fair to say not great weather to be over there with a tent pitched. grin

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#1443541 - 03/12/2017 15:07 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
BrightonBreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/07/2016
Posts: 214
Loc: Brighton, Tas 55m ASL
Also forgot to add, a lot of flood warnings about, havent seen this one in a few years- good to see some water flowing down the Jordan!

Jordan River:
Minor flooding may occur along the Jordan River during Sunday and Monday.

The Jordan River at Mauriceton is currently at 0.25 metres and rising. The Jordan River at Mauriceton may exceed the minor flood level (0.90 m) early Sunday evening.

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