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#1374214 - 29/04/2016 20:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1611
Loc: Kingaroy
This El Nino formed a lot earlier and peaked earlier than normal, that increases the odds for a cool event even more, if it had peaked say in February, then we would be worried.

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#1374273 - 30/04/2016 15:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2088
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
I see the 7 day trend is now showing some cooling in Nino 3.4 area

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#1374283 - 30/04/2016 17:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: RC]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1878
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: RC
I see the 7 day trend is now showing some cooling in Nino 3.4 area


Definitely a lot of cooling happening there and further east, but there seems to be some anomalous warming around the -100 region.

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#1374431 - 01/05/2016 19:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6623
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Has the cooling sort of lulled a bit?

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#1374475 - 02/05/2016 08:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2757
Loc: Buderim
The cooling has stalled and even reversed a little in the east. However it has cooled in further west in the more important nino 3.4 region in the last few days. The 30 day wind forecast suggests that La Nina starts today. An area of enhanced trade winds is building in the Australian region, and is marked with the low pass filter which is meant to identify longer term features such as ENSO, and the start of this marked period is about today. Maybe La Nina can be more properly considered to have started when this area moves a bit further east into the Pacific. But the current 30 day forecast suggests that westerly anomalies will end in about 2 weeks time, and average trades throughout the Pacific, and easterly anomalies in Australian region means a significant westward extension of a healthy trade flow which could have dramatic impacts on our rainfall.

I think this is one of the important reasons behind the 2010/2011 result. It is not just about how strong the trade winds are, but where the trade winds end, which marks the main area of tropical convergence and rain making. Atmospheric processes then transfer instability to the SE of this region, so when trade winds end to the north of Australia or a little to the end we get increased convergence and tropical activity to the west in Indonesia and the east Indian ocean, which increases instability over the continent.

The 30 day forecast is still chopping and changing a bit, but there does seem to be some consistency to the theme of westerly anomalies ending within the forecast period.


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#1374490 - 02/05/2016 10:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1611
Loc: Kingaroy
Models are hinting at a big rain event next weekend, hopefully it's a start.

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#1374493 - 02/05/2016 11:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2088
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
The question though Chris, is for where?

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#1374505 - 02/05/2016 12:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1611
Loc: Kingaroy
It's for south east Australia. May will probably bring a dramatic shift towards a wetter pattern.

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#1374509 - 02/05/2016 12:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2088
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Wouldn't that be normal though. Their wet season is in winter.

A change would be wet in northern Australia which had a failed wet season.

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#1374514 - 02/05/2016 14:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1878
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
The cooling has stalled and even reversed a little in the east. However it has cooled in further west in the more important nino 3.4 region in the last few days. The 30 day wind forecast suggests that La Nina starts today. An area of enhanced trade winds is building in the Australian region, and is marked with the low pass filter which is meant to identify longer term features such as ENSO, and the start of this marked period is about today. Maybe La Nina can be more properly considered to have started when this area moves a bit further east into the Pacific. But the current 30 day forecast suggests that westerly anomalies will end in about 2 weeks time, and average trades throughout the Pacific, and easterly anomalies in Australian region means a significant westward extension of a healthy trade flow which could have dramatic impacts on our rainfall.

I think this is one of the important reasons behind the 2010/2011 result. It is not just about how strong the trade winds are, but where the trade winds end, which marks the main area of tropical convergence and rain making. Atmospheric processes then transfer instability to the SE of this region, so when trade winds end to the north of Australia or a little to the end we get increased convergence and tropical activity to the west in Indonesia and the east Indian ocean, which increases instability over the continent.

The 30 day forecast is still chopping and changing a bit, but there does seem to be some consistency to the theme of westerly anomalies ending within the forecast period.


Another example of how just having a good La Nina doesn't necessarily mean lots of rain.

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#1374520 - 02/05/2016 14:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Hi All
Just got back from Hervey Bay through Goomeri & Yarraman. Overcast & mega humid last couple days. Hanging out for whats coming & hope it sticks together moving east. Getting little darker to the west past the range.

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#1374529 - 02/05/2016 15:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Oops that wasnt supposed to be here!
Can a mod please move it to SEQ day to day thread?
Been a long day. Sorry.

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#1374584 - 03/05/2016 00:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1694
Weekly update from NOAA May 2nd

The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niņo 4
0.9ēC

Niņo 3.4
0.8ēC

Niņo 3
0.4ēC

Niņo 1+2
-0.3ēC



Edited by _Johnno_ (03/05/2016 00:55)
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#1374661 - 03/05/2016 14:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1611
Loc: Kingaroy
Nino 3.4 has cooled quickly, it was still 1.3 a couple of weeks ago.

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#1374665 - 03/05/2016 15:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4361
Loc: Brisbane
Is this what the end of an El Nino looks like?

_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1374679 - 03/05/2016 17:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1694
I think that's more to do with the negative IOD (very warm Indian ocean nw of oz) and negative SAM at the moment than ENSO but probably related indirectly


Edited by _Johnno_ (03/05/2016 17:33)
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#1374688 - 03/05/2016 17:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 487
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Darwin

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#1374901 - 05/05/2016 18:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2088
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Qld April rainfall map. When will it turn around?

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...d=month&area=qd

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#1374945 - 06/05/2016 10:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1611
Loc: Kingaroy
It will soon RC. The question is: how dramatic will the change be?

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#1374960 - 06/05/2016 13:03 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2088
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
I am not convinced yet, I am not even convinced we will see a La Nina and it will just go neutral. That cool sliver of water on the equator is not very wide.

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