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#1381164 - 03/07/2016 15:40 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5720
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a high of 15.4C here in Belgrave today, currently around 13C.

We had some sunshine, but otherwise it's been mostly cloudy with a stiff wind and sporadic light showers. Most of them missed me while I was in Dandenong, although there was some brief spitting rain as I was heading home at 2pm.

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#1381170 - 03/07/2016 17:25 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6428
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
A nice day here despite stiff NW'ly - got to 18.5C.

The looming rain for this thread now looking less snowy?

At this stage those around Portland and Gippsland look to the beneficiaries if the low pressure system evolves this way:


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#1381171 - 03/07/2016 17:38 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6428
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
EC progs 55mm for gippsland with this looming low pressure system Tue-Thur.

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#1381178 - 03/07/2016 19:46 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Better get out the brolly' Petros, WATL and GFS backing that up.

Better stay indoors asf grin


Edited by samboz (03/07/2016 19:46)
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1381200 - 04/07/2016 10:27 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5720
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 10.1C, currently around 11C and overcast.

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#1381237 - 04/07/2016 17:59 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6428
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Is this looking like a 3rd ECL for this winter already??

...still looking like a Gippsland-centric event (apologies to all in other regions).

Luckily we've had about 12 days to dry out a bit from the last wet event out this way, but I'm guessing the creeks are still flowing well below the snow line. For example Lake Glenmaggie has risen from 23 to 47% over the past 7 weeks.

SatIR shows the birth of this probable ECL, surge of cold SM air into a moist NW cloudband - the classic setup.

....and if AccR is correct paddocks from Traralgon to Marlo will be muddy for at least another 3 weeks!:



[edit] - snow, Mt Hotham is not expected to see any more than -1 C for the next 6 days, so with circa 2" rain possible up there - hopefully it all arrives as snow to set up a fantastic season!


Edited by Petros (04/07/2016 18:03)

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#1381253 - 04/07/2016 20:09 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Plenty of rain Petros, flooded rivers if forecasts come close to reality. I had a long post with reference sites etc, lost the lot, swore much worse I'd say than some others..... mad

Here goes again, WATL (BOM) forecasts as follows -

Tue 5-10mm, Wed 50-100mm, Th 25-50mm, Fri 5-10mm

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp

GFS on board for good rainfall also -

T 8, W 29, T 21, F 18

http://ozforecast.com.au/cgi-bin/weather.cgi?station=Boisdale.VIC&radar

If the forecasts come off, minimum 50mm, maybe up to 100mm !



Edited by samboz (04/07/2016 20:10)
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1381267 - 04/07/2016 21:21 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6428
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Same happened to me last week Samboz. Hard to take a deep breath and start all over again eh.
Now i type into oulook and then cut/paste into WZ.

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#1381279 - 04/07/2016 23:34 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 497
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Yeah Gippy going to get VERY wet as ECL stalls and slowly moves E off the Central NSW coast.

50-150mm in East Gippy with isol 175-200mm from Tues through Thursday morning

Waves and pulses of wrap around coming through.
After this an already wet east gippy going to be just soaked

Send it to W NW Vic.

look forward to the reports

Enjoy
_________________________
Bring on the STORMS

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#1381297 - 05/07/2016 08:38 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5720
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a top of only 11.5C here in Belgrave yesterday. It was overcast and chilly, with the Sun reduced to a smudged blur, but also with light winds and no rain whatsoever. poke

As for today, overnight low of 6.4C, currently an overcast 7C with light winds. Had some light rain earlier this morning btw, but nothing measureable. poke

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#1381305 - 05/07/2016 09:30 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
G'day Twister1, very true - lot of rain with a strong possibility of flooding given the forecast in the catchment areas that are going to get BIG figures in relatively short time causing rapid run off..

WATL sticking to y'days model with only slight reduction down to 1-5mm on Fri. as it clears to the E.

No rain here o/night, cloudy and no breeze, pumping water out of water tanks into storage to make some room.

Still some patchy snow visible on Mt Wellington(1630m) to our N, expect to see a solid cover by Sat. Snow not falling as low as earlier events but with 544 over us should be cold enough at 1600m for it to happen.

Campers in the high country this coming w/e, need to be on the right side of the river crossings to enable exit home and wouldn't set up camp to low/close to river bed shocked
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1381324 - 05/07/2016 12:39 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 640
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Hey all, been away overseas etc but back in cold, wet, Melbourne.

Can definitely say the radar is under representing the rain over the Eastern suburbs. Its very "dense" rain for lack of a better term.. not huge drops but a lot of them. Making the roads particularly hazardous today due to poor visibility. Cant understand the heaps of drivers I still see without lights on in these conditions.

Hopefully we see some of the yellow stuff the West is getting smile

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#1381337 - 05/07/2016 15:02 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Welcome home balmz, Aus. feels good I'm thinking regardless of the wintery conditions.

Looking wet down there now @ 2pm, we are still bone dry, nothing changed much since this morn.


Edited by samboz (05/07/2016 15:03)
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1381338 - 05/07/2016 15:07 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 640
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Eastern Melbourne's been in the dry hole for the last couple hours. Wonder if the stuff to the SE along the coast will push up?

Some more convergence happening now closer to Melbourne so here's hoping.

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#1381368 - 05/07/2016 17:58 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 640
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Really ramping up now. Starting to look like the Adelaide radar from last night grin

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#1381372 - 05/07/2016 18:15 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6428
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Wet down in LV last night (6mm apparently) then nil all day other than drizzle/fog most of the day.

At 4:30pm rain crept over the Strezleckiis to come in heavy in LV area (as it had been Yarram to Otway all day), Maffra - not a drip yet over last 4 days. Radar shows drizzle looming in from SSE about 10 minutes away.

From now on for Maffra, EC and latest AccR prog an accumulated 40mm'ish and GFS reckons we might get 70mm (to Friday). All understandable as someone has to be located on the edge of the real wet zone (Orbost/Snowy catchment to the N) which is looking good for at least 6 !!

Some area is going to cop a heap out of this, BOM saying low (developing off SE NSW now) is expected to remain in place for 24hrs. Now its a case of simply watching the Radar and Sat loops to see where it will all be.


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#1381376 - 05/07/2016 18:21 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6428
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Hmm - ABC radio just took a drive and heard distant thunder to the SSE - reckon a storm is near the Longford radio tower?

IF a storm from that direction made it to Maffra I'd be going back to decades old records to find a similar event. More thunder audible as I type this.

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#1381382 - 05/07/2016 18:37 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 640
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Definitely lightning on the tracker down that way Petros.

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#1381383 - 05/07/2016 18:42 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Heard thunder round 1630 to our SSW, plenty here -

http://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en#y=-37.8988;x=147.4362;z=8;t=3;m=sat;r=0;s=0;o=0;b=;n=0;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1381384 - 05/07/2016 18:50 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Tonights WATL, some down grading -

Tue 5-10mm, Wed 50-100mm, Thur 15-25mm, Fri 1-5mm.

Compared to WATL 24 hrs ago -

Tue 5-10mm, Wed 50-100mm, Th 25-50mm, Fri 5-10mm
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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