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#1380850 - 27/06/2016 20:03 Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 929
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Hey guys,

I thought I'd kick off this next period of cold snowy weather ahead😃

Gfs especially looking initially cold with a front on Thursday/Friday this week with rain and snow looking like lowering to about 1000m.

Then proceeding this, gfs tonight hinting at a very severe low level snow event with the snow line falling to that similar to what we endured last friday😀
Of course this will all cop and change a fair bit as the models do 😃

Enjoy the ride everyone!

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#1380911 - 28/06/2016 18:06 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 929
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thursday/Friday period still holding but as the models do, gfs has done a 360 on the Monday event lol

I'd say plenty still to play out between now and then

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#1380914 - 28/06/2016 18:50 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6428
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep DG - Thursday looks to be another significant snow top up for the resorts almost cementing a "good season" pending?

Here's AccR's take on late Thursday (snow to lower than 1000M?):



The cut-off progged to form in the bight overnight Sunday looks to stay out W of Vic then fizzle before getting to us?? - time will tell, but NSW snowfields will be all over this (even "fizzled" can mean snow from NW for them).



Edited by Petros (28/06/2016 18:51)

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#1380919 - 28/06/2016 19:28 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 929
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah p - that above access r chart like u say I think idicates snow down to at least 1000m? Maybe even 800m? Looks pretty cold😃
Perfect top up for the alps maybe 10-15cm ?


Interesting scenario the front next Monday! Yesterday gfs showed a classic sw icy blast, now it's gone cut off lol ??

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#1380984 - 29/06/2016 23:24 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5720
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Interesting weather ahead that's for sure! smile

I came home from Lilydale an hour ago. The temperature out at Coldstream in the Yarra Valley was 10-11C while I was there. Relatively mild evening, minus the wind chill; it's been getting quite blustery out there. A partly cloudy, gusty 10C here in Belgrave right now. poke

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#1381010 - 30/06/2016 10:14 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5720
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 8.8C, currently around 10C. A cold, mostly cloudy, very blustery, stormy start to the day. poke

Only had a few sprinkling showers so far. Most of the rain is missing us, as is typically the case in weather like this; it seems the only time my area gets any significant heavy rainfall with strong northerly winds is during thunderstorm activity. poke

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#1381014 - 30/06/2016 11:26 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2214
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
By 11.15am temperature only reach to 7.1c clam with few showers from first weak band and wait see how strong second band from West.

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#1381016 - 30/06/2016 12:33 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5720
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a high of 12.9C earlier, currently around 11C. Mostly sunny right now, but northerlies are still strengthening, with gusts clocked at up to 37km/h. The next lot of showers are coming into Melbourne now.

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#1381020 - 30/06/2016 14:29 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2214
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks like cold thunderstorm firing up in my west can see lighting on radar.

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#1381024 - 30/06/2016 15:41 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2214
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Wind change arrived at 3.45pm

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#1381032 - 30/06/2016 17:43 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2214
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Rain band has pasted dumped 9mm rain to bring over average June
to 87mm out of of 61mm is wonderful.

Also now its over average from January 1st to June 30th totals to 268mm out of 261.4. Never seen this for long time since 1990s.

Over average Month is March, May and June bring 67.7mm more rain.

One Farmer in NW of Bendigo 15km away never seen wettest since 1970s bring 170mm on his property from May to June.

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#1381035 - 30/06/2016 18:24 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6428
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Was black as a dogs guts late arvo out this way, baro dropped from 1023 to 1005 hPa over past 24H, light spitting rain has arrived here.

.....but none of the wind that was predicted - a calm day.

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#1381040 - 30/06/2016 19:45 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5720
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
The main front came through Belgrave around 4:30pm. Despite the radar, we didn't have too much wind or rain (and no thunderstorms or hail either); the rain was fairly at heavy at times though. Collected 4.2mm in total, a nice start for July 2016. smile

Currently around 6C. Next wave of bad weather heading towards Melbourne from the Southwest coast. smile

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#1381051 - 01/07/2016 01:38 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5720
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
I came home nearly 2 hours ago from Melbourne Airport. My fiancee has arrived from Fiji btw. smile

It's been a cold night out. My family and I left Belgrave around 8:30pm; it was about 7C with clear skies and fairly gentle winds.

Cloud began increasing from the west and the winds kicked up after 9pm as we drove along the M1 Monash Freeway towards the City around 9pm. The first light showers arrived just after passing the M80 Western Ring Road while driving north up the Tullamarine Freeway approximately 30 minutes later; it was around 8C at Essendon. The wind was very harsh at the Airport! eek

Seems the heaviest rainfall stayed to the north amd northwest, mainly along and north of the Central Highlands and Macedon Ranges at the time.

An hour later we headed home. It was still a raw 8C at Essendon as we were leaving, and the rain was coming down a little more heavily while travelling south along the Tulla and CityLink. The rain eased back to drizzle along the Monash after 11pm.

At the last check it was around 7C here in Belgrave.

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#1381058 - 01/07/2016 08:39 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
0.5mm since 0900 y'day, might get a bit today laugh

Tuesday - Thursday next week looking wet with all the models I've looked at giving some good rainfall the thumbs up.

Cool cloudy morning here, clearing from the W, no wind.
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1381096 - 01/07/2016 19:35 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 929
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
We received 5mm out of the change last night 😀

Temp dropped to 4c by 9pm last night and sat on that until morning.

Max today of 9c

See what the next change has in store for early next week??
Still a lot of divergence between the models by the look of it

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#1381121 - 02/07/2016 15:11 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5720
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
I've been a bit pre-occupied lately. Time I caught up on my posts. poke

Yesterday we had an overnight low of 5.7C and an afternoon top of 14.5C. A mostly cloudy day with showers, mainly light. Collected 9.5mm of rain in the 24 hours to 9am yesterday morning. smile

As for today we had an overnight low of 9.3C and an afternoon top of 15.4C. Still mostly cloudy, but with only the odd light shower. Otherwise, more sunshine than yesterday! smile

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#1381148 - 03/07/2016 09:20 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5720
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 10.2C, currently around 12C and mostly cloudy.

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#1381151 - 03/07/2016 10:18 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6428
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Models seem to be converging on an ECL Dooga - well called!


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#1381155 - 03/07/2016 12:44 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6428
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Mild, clear and blustery NW'ly here today.

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#1381164 - 03/07/2016 15:40 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5720
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a high of 15.4C here in Belgrave today, currently around 13C.

We had some sunshine, but otherwise it's been mostly cloudy with a stiff wind and sporadic light showers. Most of them missed me while I was in Dandenong, although there was some brief spitting rain as I was heading home at 2pm.

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#1381170 - 03/07/2016 17:25 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6428
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
A nice day here despite stiff NW'ly - got to 18.5C.

The looming rain for this thread now looking less snowy?

At this stage those around Portland and Gippsland look to the beneficiaries if the low pressure system evolves this way:


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#1381171 - 03/07/2016 17:38 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6428
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
EC progs 55mm for gippsland with this looming low pressure system Tue-Thur.

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#1381178 - 03/07/2016 19:46 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Better get out the brolly' Petros, WATL and GFS backing that up.

Better stay indoors asf grin


Edited by samboz (03/07/2016 19:46)
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1381200 - 04/07/2016 10:27 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5720
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 10.1C, currently around 11C and overcast.

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#1381237 - 04/07/2016 17:59 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6428
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Is this looking like a 3rd ECL for this winter already??

...still looking like a Gippsland-centric event (apologies to all in other regions).

Luckily we've had about 12 days to dry out a bit from the last wet event out this way, but I'm guessing the creeks are still flowing well below the snow line. For example Lake Glenmaggie has risen from 23 to 47% over the past 7 weeks.

SatIR shows the birth of this probable ECL, surge of cold SM air into a moist NW cloudband - the classic setup.

....and if AccR is correct paddocks from Traralgon to Marlo will be muddy for at least another 3 weeks!:



[edit] - snow, Mt Hotham is not expected to see any more than -1 C for the next 6 days, so with circa 2" rain possible up there - hopefully it all arrives as snow to set up a fantastic season!


Edited by Petros (04/07/2016 18:03)

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#1381253 - 04/07/2016 20:09 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Plenty of rain Petros, flooded rivers if forecasts come close to reality. I had a long post with reference sites etc, lost the lot, swore much worse I'd say than some others..... mad

Here goes again, WATL (BOM) forecasts as follows -

Tue 5-10mm, Wed 50-100mm, Th 25-50mm, Fri 5-10mm

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp

GFS on board for good rainfall also -

T 8, W 29, T 21, F 18

http://ozforecast.com.au/cgi-bin/weather.cgi?station=Boisdale.VIC&radar

If the forecasts come off, minimum 50mm, maybe up to 100mm !



Edited by samboz (04/07/2016 20:10)
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1381267 - 04/07/2016 21:21 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6428
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Same happened to me last week Samboz. Hard to take a deep breath and start all over again eh.
Now i type into oulook and then cut/paste into WZ.

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#1381279 - 04/07/2016 23:34 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 497
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Yeah Gippy going to get VERY wet as ECL stalls and slowly moves E off the Central NSW coast.

50-150mm in East Gippy with isol 175-200mm from Tues through Thursday morning

Waves and pulses of wrap around coming through.
After this an already wet east gippy going to be just soaked

Send it to W NW Vic.

look forward to the reports

Enjoy
_________________________
Bring on the STORMS

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#1381297 - 05/07/2016 08:38 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5720
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a top of only 11.5C here in Belgrave yesterday. It was overcast and chilly, with the Sun reduced to a smudged blur, but also with light winds and no rain whatsoever. poke

As for today, overnight low of 6.4C, currently an overcast 7C with light winds. Had some light rain earlier this morning btw, but nothing measureable. poke

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#1381305 - 05/07/2016 09:30 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
G'day Twister1, very true - lot of rain with a strong possibility of flooding given the forecast in the catchment areas that are going to get BIG figures in relatively short time causing rapid run off..

WATL sticking to y'days model with only slight reduction down to 1-5mm on Fri. as it clears to the E.

No rain here o/night, cloudy and no breeze, pumping water out of water tanks into storage to make some room.

Still some patchy snow visible on Mt Wellington(1630m) to our N, expect to see a solid cover by Sat. Snow not falling as low as earlier events but with 544 over us should be cold enough at 1600m for it to happen.

Campers in the high country this coming w/e, need to be on the right side of the river crossings to enable exit home and wouldn't set up camp to low/close to river bed shocked
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1381324 - 05/07/2016 12:39 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 640
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Hey all, been away overseas etc but back in cold, wet, Melbourne.

Can definitely say the radar is under representing the rain over the Eastern suburbs. Its very "dense" rain for lack of a better term.. not huge drops but a lot of them. Making the roads particularly hazardous today due to poor visibility. Cant understand the heaps of drivers I still see without lights on in these conditions.

Hopefully we see some of the yellow stuff the West is getting smile

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#1381337 - 05/07/2016 15:02 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Welcome home balmz, Aus. feels good I'm thinking regardless of the wintery conditions.

Looking wet down there now @ 2pm, we are still bone dry, nothing changed much since this morn.


Edited by samboz (05/07/2016 15:03)
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1381338 - 05/07/2016 15:07 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 640
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Eastern Melbourne's been in the dry hole for the last couple hours. Wonder if the stuff to the SE along the coast will push up?

Some more convergence happening now closer to Melbourne so here's hoping.

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#1381368 - 05/07/2016 17:58 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 640
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Really ramping up now. Starting to look like the Adelaide radar from last night grin

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#1381372 - 05/07/2016 18:15 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6428
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Wet down in LV last night (6mm apparently) then nil all day other than drizzle/fog most of the day.

At 4:30pm rain crept over the Strezleckiis to come in heavy in LV area (as it had been Yarram to Otway all day), Maffra - not a drip yet over last 4 days. Radar shows drizzle looming in from SSE about 10 minutes away.

From now on for Maffra, EC and latest AccR prog an accumulated 40mm'ish and GFS reckons we might get 70mm (to Friday). All understandable as someone has to be located on the edge of the real wet zone (Orbost/Snowy catchment to the N) which is looking good for at least 6 !!

Some area is going to cop a heap out of this, BOM saying low (developing off SE NSW now) is expected to remain in place for 24hrs. Now its a case of simply watching the Radar and Sat loops to see where it will all be.


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#1381376 - 05/07/2016 18:21 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6428
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Hmm - ABC radio just took a drive and heard distant thunder to the SSE - reckon a storm is near the Longford radio tower?

IF a storm from that direction made it to Maffra I'd be going back to decades old records to find a similar event. More thunder audible as I type this.

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#1381382 - 05/07/2016 18:37 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 640
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Definitely lightning on the tracker down that way Petros.

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#1381383 - 05/07/2016 18:42 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Heard thunder round 1630 to our SSW, plenty here -

http://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en#y=-37.8988;x=147.4362;z=8;t=3;m=sat;r=0;s=0;o=0;b=;n=0;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1381384 - 05/07/2016 18:50 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Tonights WATL, some down grading -

Tue 5-10mm, Wed 50-100mm, Thur 15-25mm, Fri 1-5mm.

Compared to WATL 24 hrs ago -

Tue 5-10mm, Wed 50-100mm, Th 25-50mm, Fri 5-10mm
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1381385 - 05/07/2016 18:57 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6428
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
..... and thats still a lot of rain for you to deal with Samboz!

Heavy showers pulsing in and out here atm.

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#1381390 - 05/07/2016 19:28 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Light rain here Petros, just outside and saw lightning to the S, earlier thunder clap from Bundalaguah frightened family in Sale, must have been a good one!

Certainly is plenty of rain P, country needs it but in smaller doses would be good....however take it when you can get it grin
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1381395 - 05/07/2016 19:59 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6079
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
24.7mm here in the inner west before this evenings healthy sounding follow up
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1381399 - 05/07/2016 20:17 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 256
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
Good evening all, great system indeed. Torrential rain in spots on the way home from the City to Wyndham Vale at around 7:00PM. I even saw a few flashes of lightning across the bay.

I have recorded 25.2mm here in Wyndham Vale, thats pretty amazing for this end of town. I'm excited!
_________________________
Wunderground

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#1381400 - 05/07/2016 20:18 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 929
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Can def confirm lightning and thunder embedded in this very heavy rain band that's currently absolutely soaking us atm😃
What an event the next couple of days are shaping up to be!!
Since the rain started this morning we have had 30mm and the rain is still teeming down 😀
West and south gippsland are on flood watch but I'm not sure what sort of figures we could see through this part of the strezleckis ??

This thing is really cranking up so especially for everyone up east gipps way batten down the hatch and stay safe!!

Petros/ samboz - u guys look right in the sweet spot for this one, after recent big falls up your way I'm fairly concerned about your area and east😨

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#1381404 - 05/07/2016 20:32 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6428
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Lucky here do far. Bugger all rain yet. Dissapointed if we didnt get an inch from looming days. But concerned if we got 2 inches or more. Would take weeks to dry out the mud at this time of the year.

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#1381406 - 05/07/2016 21:09 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5720
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a top of only 10.9C today here in Belgrave. Humid, hazy, overcast and damp with little wind... if any. poke

I was down in Boronia between 9:30am and 3:30pm. We had a few sprinkling showers and drizzly periods as the low's wrap-around skirted by just to the south, mainly late-morning/lunchtime. The clouds were so low and thick that the Dandenong Ranges were almost-completely shrouded, and yet at brief intervals I caught glimpses of the TV antennas up on Mount Dandenong. Plus we had a brief burst of sunshine around 2pm! smile

Showers began returning in earnest during the drive home, and soon after 5pm the main wrap-around finally arrived from Gippsland! The rain has been heavy at times, but no thunder or lightning so far. poke

Collected 11.6mm at the last check and more rain to come. Currently around 9C. smile

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#1381407 - 05/07/2016 21:15 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6428
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Steady rain has just returned here after several hours break.

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#1381412 - 05/07/2016 21:29 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Wow, handy falls in suburbia and the L/Valley, good to see.

Sweet spot has dropped 1mm here so far dooga' lol - leave some for us ! Very light rain and no wind, pleasant enough.

Radar showing us on the edge, it will get here soon enough.

It has to rain after we drained rain harvest tanks, got up several days of wood, mowed the grass, fed pellets to new lamb mothers and got a mountain bike ride in !

As I finish typing the rain is picking up.
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1381424 - 05/07/2016 23:52 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Yarram 43mm and Mallacoota 34mm came to notice, here the rain is a moderate steady fall and is now - 9mm neat.

No wind.
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1381435 - 06/07/2016 07:23 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5720
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Not sure what my overnight low was because I hadn't reset my weather station properly, but it was 8.8C when I went to bed last night. Currently around 11C and overcast.

Collected 16.9mm in total to 7am this morning. The rainband cleared off around midnight, with showers to follow. smile

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#1381436 - 06/07/2016 07:48 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Funny enough, we have had the odd drop of rain o/night, the nylex tube (25mm) is overflowed, guessing 40mm +, to heavy to go out in until 0900 when it'll get read.

First bit of wind rattling thru' here now, otherwise calm o/night.

Devon, down south talking 114mm on local ABC.

Quite concerning was the"Incidents & Warnings" EMERGENCY VIC site this morning with a flooding icon at Boisdale and the only notation being 'FLOODING, COMPLETE ONE HOUR AGO' IE issued 0628hrs this morn. I read that site regularly and can't decipher exactly what that means, had there been flooding and the job is now complete there? OR is it a warning for Avon River inundation of township and farming land. No INCIDENT was written up for a job there.

The icon has disappeared now, too many people ringing up in panic I'm guessing. Glad we're not on the flood plain after seeing 1m of water thru' the township in the past.

http://emergency.vic.gov.au/respond/#

If our catchment area to the north keeps receiving rain at this rate for another 12 hours there is a chance of widespread flooding, into the flood plain from the Avon ???, I'll make some phone calls later.

Mt Moornapa has 70mm already, Briagolong 50mm, Sale 25mm, Yarram 51mm, Reeves Knob 54mm, Mt Well. maybe U/s, Licola 47mm .. etc.

More later, its shaping up to be a big one !



Edited by samboz (06/07/2016 07:50)
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1381438 - 06/07/2016 08:02 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6428
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Mate report's 55mm at Stockdale onite.
Only one lull in onite rain for an hour predawn. Reckon circa 35mm by guess.
All models show 12orr hrs of this.
Here comes da mud!
GFS most accurate for Gippy again.

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#1381439 - 06/07/2016 08:03 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Avon River, 1.6m & rising at 0545hrs this morn. @ The Channels.

This is the one to watch, along with Valencia Creek and Freestone Creek, which was 1.4m & rising @ 0545hrs.

Macalister River @ Licola 1.95m & rising (same time).


Edited by samboz (06/07/2016 08:08)
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1381446 - 06/07/2016 08:36 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Ventured out to grab the gauge in a lull round 0825hrs P, 49.5mm.

Thought rain gauge (4.6mm) at Mt Wellington u/s, but on reflection if it's falling as snow !


Edited by samboz (06/07/2016 08:38)
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1381461 - 06/07/2016 09:09 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6428
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Just emptied out 34.5mm.

With Maffra in the lee of NE Tassie - maybe a round of golf at midday is possible???

Re GFS accuracy - I based that on expectation of 40+mm in the gauge per Stockdale.

So I was wrong, for rain to this stage here, AccR, EC and GFS were all as accurate to each other for this past 12 hour period.

It would take the low pressure system to edge a little more north up NSW coast (allowing a more SE'ly incoming cloud band and baro to rise into the 1014-1018 hPa band) at Maffra over coming hours for GFS to be correct by 10pm.

Great to see the Gippy rivers are to get a pulse!

[edit] - current synoptic:



Edited by Petros (06/07/2016 09:12)

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#1381464 - 06/07/2016 09:37 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
51.5mm to 0900, still steady rain, bit of moderate gusty wind, plenty of run off.
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1381465 - 06/07/2016 10:04 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Golf....the 19th hole is perfect today !
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1381486 - 06/07/2016 12:45 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6428
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Rain rate has picked up markedly over past 30 mins.

Another 10mm since 9am takes Maffra to 44.5mm for this ECL.

For Samboz - the present view from Royal Maffra's 19th!:


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#1381487 - 06/07/2016 13:12 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
smile Thanks for the pic P, taken from the 19th hole environ, or close thereto, wise man! lol

In Boisdale earlier, could just see a vague outline of Fosters Hilldue to heavy rain (usually distinct trees easily seen) from the Main Street. They have 32mm all up.

Avon & Valencia Ck not moving much out here but the Freestone has a muddy fresh getting a move along, 100mm @ Moornapa will lift that further.

At home 70mm, heavier now than couple of hours back, lot of water over roads everywhere and run off filling dams flat out.

Reeves Knob 115mm. Licola 64mm +


Edited by samboz (06/07/2016 13:15)
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1381491 - 06/07/2016 13:59 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Waterways rising, later tonight will see bigger increases - Same locations as earlier -

Avon River 1.6m to 1.75m @ 1314hrs.

Freestone Creek 1.4m to 2.45m @ 1145hrs

Macalister River 1.95 to 2.13M @1145hrs

LATEST - Macalister R at Licola 2.49m rising 1343 Hrs WED 06/07/16


Edited by samboz (06/07/2016 14:08)
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1381495 - 06/07/2016 15:10 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6428
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Glenmaggie at 48% now - thats a healthy flow at that far up Samboz - could fill it counting the downstream additions between Glenmaggie and Licola?

Thick steady rain continues unabated here, with a southerly breeze helping to push it up into the S slopes of the ranges and enhance precip in this area. Backyard full of puddles, another circa 9mm in gauge since last post - taking us to circa 63mm for the ECL so far (which IS more inline with the GFS prediction yesterday).

More rain than we needed!

Baro now at 1015 hPa and the ECL "rain zone" for Maffra based on many decades of my records. This should continue to midnight I reckon.

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#1381496 - 06/07/2016 15:14 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Rivers are lifting faster now, will put some figures up later.

We have 80mm + and it's pouring now; consistent with ACCESS which shows a heavier rainfall here between 1300 - 1900 today.

Had enough, can stop now, thanks Huey grin

Typing when you posted P. Yes, agree, could fill it when the Mac. gets going.


Edited by samboz (06/07/2016 15:17)
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1381497 - 06/07/2016 15:35 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Hourly fall rates back up the ACCESS forecast.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDV60162.html
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1381501 - 06/07/2016 16:11 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 497
Loc: Chadstone Vic
As Expected BIG BIG rainfall for you guys and easy 12 hours to come, widespread 100-200 falls with isol 250mm coming you guys just had to wait

Hours of steady mod rainfall to come flooding be a big issue tomorrow.

Keep the reports obs and pics coming boys pretty good event for your part of the world
_________________________
Bring on the STORMS

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#1381511 - 06/07/2016 17:44 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6428
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Rain still hasnt stopped since a 45 minute break at dawn here since 9pm last night. Strong SSW'ly breeze earlier in the arvo has abated - also rain back to light/steady.

Only got to 13.3 C here today, have poured out 61.5mm since last evening for this ECL so far.

Dean Stewart BOM - just said we have to hang in till midnight before it commences to clear (which we have posted/expected).

Gippsland is now absolutely saturated, paddock dams filling/over-flowing.

A Major flood warning for the Snowy!! - I actually cant remember the last time that happened! - a big occasion.

Samboz, let me know if you want me to man the Stratty bridge to snag out your sausage smoker if it floats away from your place.

Despite the mooted abatement from midnight tonight, this current synoptic is a classic central Gippsland potential flood set-up:



.....and the paddocks around here simply cant soak in more than whats arriving from Huey....:



Edited by Petros (06/07/2016 17:49)

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#1381514 - 06/07/2016 18:00 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
51.5mm to 0900 today and 40.5mm since + 92mm 0ver the last 24hrs approx.

This is a rare rainfall event for this neck of the woods alright T1, get them occasionally but not annually.

River heights aren't upgraded yet, have eye witness report the Avon River rose 900mm in 20 minutes a short time ago above Valencia creek.

WATL has downgraded, Th 5-10mm, Fri 1-5mm, Sat Omm, Sun 1-5mm.
with early next week looking interesting !

Some big catchment figures, Reeves Knob @ 155mm + , Mt Moornapa @ 116mm + , Mt Wellington now coming up with 49mm.

The Avon, our local/nearest river rises extremely quickly, expect rapid rises overnight, probably a banker but not out on the major dairying flats with a bit of luck around Boisdale.

Typing while you post again P, got it covered, tied to Mrs S's left foot just in case...lol

Thanks for the synoptic, good example of our ECL, I will try to remember for future reference.


Edited by samboz (06/07/2016 18:06)
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1381520 - 06/07/2016 19:03 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6428
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Rain continues here at same pace or marginally higher rate, not much wind.

It looks like this system will clear out to the W (not the East!?) over the evening - unusual for me!??

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#1381525 - 06/07/2016 20:23 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 929
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Petros/samboz - wow what an event for u guys!! Hope it slows down for u shortly!
Will be some serious run off up higher in the hills into all the river systems up there, which could cause serious problems when it reaches the flat ground😨

We are up to 52mm over the past couple of days, things def getting pretty wet!

Currently rain is ramping up again here

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#1381527 - 06/07/2016 20:47 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Updated post re river heights -

Avon River 1.6m to 1.75m @ 1314hrs. to 4.55M @ 1745 Hrs, 2.8M rise (4 1/2 hrs)

Freestone Creek 1.4m to 2.45m @ 1145hrs to 5M @ 1745 Hrs, 2.55M rise ( " )

Macalister River 1.95 to 2.13M @1145hrs to 2.49M @ 1343hrs to 2.63M @ 1445 Hrs .. see note below.

Macalister River gauge at Licola hasn't altered, must be u/s, however the gauge above Licola, at Glencairn has gone from approx. 0.8m this morn. to 2.0m this evening. Given the confluence with the Wellington River being below Glencairn plenty more on the way to Glenmaggie Weir.

*********************************************************************

At home 104mm since yesterday, in less than 24hrs, with 52.5mm since 0900 today and 12mm since 1800hrs tonight. Been pouring !

Correct 'dooga, it can stop anytime now, had enough ! grin

Mention again re fall rates depicted on ACCESS being on the money, should lighten off in the next hour or two.


Edited by samboz (06/07/2016 20:54)
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1381536 - 07/07/2016 00:06 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5720
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a top of only 11.0C yesterday here in Belgrave. Virtually no sunshine, a slight but chill wind, and persistent soaking rain/drizzle. poke

The cloudcover remained thick and low all day; I could only just barely see the lights at SkyHigh Mount Dandenong while returning home from Lilydale around 10pm this evening. The rain came down a bit more heavily after passing through Ferntree Gully.

Collected 3.2mm at the last check. Currently around 9C. smile

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#1381541 - 07/07/2016 07:45 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Avon River Channels gauge) 1.6m to 1.75m @ 1314hrs. to 4.55M @ 1745 Hrs, Wed., a 2.8M rise (4 1/2 hrs) to 5.3M @ 0545hrs Thur. At Stratford a Mjor flood warning 6.5M Peaking this morning.

Freestone Creek 1.4m to 2.45m @ 1145hrs Wed., to 5M @ 1745 Hrs, Wed., a 2.55M rise ( " ) to 5M @ 0545 hrs Thur. (It was higher o/night)

Macalister River 1.95 to 2.13M @1145hrs Wed., to 2.49M @ 1343hrs to 2.63M @ 1445 Hrs Wed., to 2.9M @ 0545hrs Thur., @ Licola, peaked higher at 3.1M o/night, Minor flood warning.

Lots of Rivers with flood warnings, a major flood warning at Bairnsdale can be a problem there, they usually evacuate the old pub near the bridge and the caravan park, also problems at the Veg. growing district of Lindenow upstream of B'Dale. It is rising and headed for 7M.

The other major flood is on the snowy, it rose from 1.2M to 7.5M (approx), that will flood farming area on the river plains.

Lot of water about and other rivers in flood.

At home we have had 118.5mm for the event with light misty rain at the moment, no wind, most of that fell in a 24hr period with only 6.5mm since about 2300hrs last night.

Our small paddocks are sodden, dams overflowed for hours, water tanks the same, RED GUM burning nicely in the slow comb. heater, Spring is looking GOOD ! smile

http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/warnings/


Edited by samboz (07/07/2016 07:54)
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1381565 - 07/07/2016 11:53 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
SOME WATERWAY PICS -

VALENCIA CREEK TRIBUTARY TO AVON RIVER (low level crossing - normally 5m wide) 06/07/2016




VALENCIA CREEK <24HRS LATER ON 07/07/2016




AVON RIVER AT VALENCIA CK 06/07/2016 (Low level crossing Normally about 20M wide)




AVON RIVER AT VALENCIA CREEK 07/07/2016



FREESTONE CREEK, TRIBUTARY TO AVON RIVER 07/07/2016 (Many parts 5-10M normally)




AVON RIVER NEAR BOISDALE 07/07/2016




Edited by samboz (07/07/2016 12:03)
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1381567 - 07/07/2016 12:40 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2214
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Isolated rain dumped central Victoria overnight to 12.5mm and overcast of 11.9c

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#1381592 - 07/07/2016 18:13 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6428
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks for the photo's Samboz, I wonder if the BOM's statement that there would be no flooding on the Gippy lakes will hold true?

The remainder of last evenings rain, plus a midday wet period here saw me tip out another 13mm just then to complete the ECL tally (which has risen to 74.5mm - three inches).

Refuse to post any visuals on anything - far too humbled by Samboz's efforts!

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#1381597 - 07/07/2016 19:58 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 929
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Wow great photos samboz!!
What an event for u guys up there!

We finished with a healthy 55mm here over the last two days 😃

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#1381601 - 07/07/2016 20:20 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
Ronfishes Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2013
Posts: 3207
Loc: Gordonvale
Spewing, we just missed this, left Lake Tyres on Saturday, it opened today cry
_________________________
MTD: 31.4mm
2016-2017 wet season: 1317.8mm
YTD: 1304.4mm

Opinion is not fact.

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#1381602 - 07/07/2016 20:27 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Terrific bit of interesting weather for this end Petros & dooga', had to put up a bit of info/pics for the record/posterity.

74.5mm & 55mm is very good rain also.

And it just gets better next week, we're on a roll

Thanks for the thread dooga' grin

edit..Re Lakes Flooding P, lot of inputs, you'd think it would kick the lakes a fair bit unless NEAP tides at the mo'.

Thawed out yet RF..lol


Edited by samboz (07/07/2016 20:32)
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1381604 - 07/07/2016 21:52 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
Ronfishes Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2013
Posts: 3207
Loc: Gordonvale
Haha samboz, yeah back to shirts and shorts smile Nice pics btw.
_________________________
MTD: 31.4mm
2016-2017 wet season: 1317.8mm
YTD: 1304.4mm

Opinion is not fact.

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#1381618 - 08/07/2016 00:25 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5720
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a top of only 11.6C here in Belgrave yesterday arvo, following an overnight low of 9.1C. poke

The day started out as dank and dreary as the previous 2-3 days. Overcast with abundant low cloud, although I could see the top of the highest TV antenna up at Mount Dandenong while driving through The Basin on my way to work around 8am. Plus the sky grew lighter as the day progressed, with the slighest hint of sun! smile

Winds were light but chill nonetheless. Showery and drizzly up until around lunchtime. A few more showers swept in during the home commute after 3pm (especially in the Boronia/Ferntree Gully area), before clearing off again after 5pm as I was on my way down to Dandenong for the evening. Collected 1mm of rain since 9am. smile

I sighted stars through the cloudcover while driving through Doveton, Hallam, Narre Warren North and Harkaway. smile

Currently around 9C. More showers popping up around Melbourne and also coming down from the Northern Plains and NSW Riverina! smile

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#1381633 - 08/07/2016 09:01 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5720
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 8.5C, it was around 9C when I left home for work around 7:30am. Less cloudy today, nice to see some sunshine (noted some patchy fog during the commute). smile

Collected an additional 1.1mm of rain, so 2.1mm in total for the past 24 hours! smile

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#1381634 - 08/07/2016 09:06 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Flood warning re Gipp Lakes Petros, 0.8M - 0.9M peak tomorrow.
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1381656 - 08/07/2016 12:29 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5720
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Came home from work around an hour ago and the weather is on the improve! It's still mostly cloudy, but the showers have now cleared off and we've getting sunny breaks and winds are light. At the last check it was around 15C here in Belgrave. smile

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#1381693 - 08/07/2016 18:45 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Glenmaggie now 70.6% Petros, nice pick up from the ECL !

(Prev. 46% mentioned ? )


Edited by samboz (08/07/2016 18:46)
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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#1381700 - 08/07/2016 19:26 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6428
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: samboz
Flood warning re Gipp Lakes Petros, 0.8M - 0.9M peak tomorrow.


A mate checked his boat at Paynesville today, said Lakes were up by 2 foot! - has flooded the boat club car park.

Glenmaggie looks like it will fill over the next 7 days? - great for the lower McAllister and the Lakes in general smile

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#1381731 - 09/07/2016 00:13 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5720
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My fiancee and I came home from a long but lovely afternoon and evening in the City. I feel so exhausted! poke

It stayed partly cloudy during the ridiculously long 2 hour 15 minute trip from Belgrave, starting after 1pm (by bus to Blackburn, then by train to the City). I will be glad when level crossing removals on the Belgrave & Lilydale lines are complete! poke

The temperature was around 14C in Blackburn btw.

It got slightly clearer as the afternoon waned while in the City, with a slight but chill wind. The setting sun splashed the clouds with a slight orange and yellow. smile

Leaving the City sometime after 9pm, some friends we met up with drove us home, but not before travelling down the Monash Freeway to Glen Waverley. Arriving there close to 10pm, it was around 6C with fog starting to form; the skies were clearing overhead. The fog really began thickening and becoming more widespread as we journeyed the rest of the way home around 11pm, especially from Rowville onwards.

Turns out I actually collected 3.1mm of rain in total in the 24 hours to 9am. Reached a max of 15.8C here in Belgrave yesterday. Right now it's a foggy 7C. smile

Also forgot to mention I saw some hot-air balloons over Melbourne's northern suburbs while driving to Boronia for work yeaterday morning. smile

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#1381762 - 09/07/2016 12:38 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5720
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 4.8C, currently around 17C and mostly sunny! smile

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#1381764 - 09/07/2016 12:58 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2214
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Overnight to 0.5c lucky just one off cold frosty.

Lovely sunny.

Wont be as cold tonight thanks to upper low system clouds moving from West.

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#1381849 - 10/07/2016 17:48 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6428
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Well the circa 120-160mm rain in the upper McAlister River catchment for this ECL has significantly assisted in lifting Lake Glenmaggie water levels from 23% (mid May) to 79% (now).

The present level is now in the regulation range (flood gates can now control dam level) - so the lakes level from now on this winter will be irrelevant as space will be maintained from now till the end of the snow melt for flood surge mitigation.

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#1427378 - 04/07/2017 16:48 Re: Period 30/6 - 6/7 cold snowy changes with hail/sleet/rain and possible low level snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1613
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
12 months ago it was happening, good to read about the rain that CAN fall round here.............. grin
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-14.5mm to 0900 28th

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