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#1381335 - 05/07/2016 14:38 SA - Cold front following Cold Pool July 9th to 15th July
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1642
Loc: Uleybury
With yet another potential great system at the end of the week and early next week, it looks like we will get slapped in the face with yet another decent front with a bite.

EC pegging another good 15-35mm across the southern Ag area.
Access has the 540 line well N into the state so she will be a chilly one.

Hail would potentially be scattered with the cold pool with the chance of local thunder associated with hail showers. The possibility of snow on top of Mt. Bryan and also Mount Lofty if the conditions are key.

Monday looks to be the worst of the days with a deep seeded SW air stream so be plenty of showers streaming through. SW winds to be 30 to 45kts with peak of 54-60kts.

By Tuesday, a high of 1024 to move through and sit to the East providing more calmer conditions and being clear calm nights, widespread frosts will occur so we could see our first big July frosts acorss the state.

My Forecast for now:

Sunday: A rain band to move through from the NW delivering 5-15mm with abundant falls of 15-20mm. Winds to be N to NW 15-25kts.

Monday:
Winds to turn from the NW to become a W to SW and increase in the becoming gale force at times on KI and southern coasts with peak gusts of 54+kts (100+km/h)
Showers with local hail possible with thunder. The chance of a light dust of snow on the higher peaks of the Flinders Ranges and possibly on the higher peaks of Lofty.

Tuesday: The occasional shower in the morning clearing later in the day, cold nights into Wednesday with places in the MN, Murray and Riverland as well as some spots in teh Adelaide Area and Hills to plummet below 0.

More will come to hand as the days progress.

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#1381363 - 05/07/2016 17:50 Re: SA - Cold front following Cold Pool July 9th to 15th July [Re: StormCapture]
Jetfire Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 01/07/2014
Posts: 11
Loc: Adelaide
Well I will be watching this event with great interest, even though I don't really know what to look for.
Last year we went to Mt Lofty instead of Mt Bryan and it was a bit of a fizzer at Lofty whereas Mt Bryan seemed to be going off. So, I think this year we'll head to Mt Bryan.
Please keep the updates coming.

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#1381584 - 07/07/2016 16:36 Re: SA - Cold front following Cold Pool July 9th to 15th July [Re: StormCapture]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1593
Loc: Bridgewater
R1ops: SES require a planning officer at Netley due to predicted weather on Sunday 19.30-08.00 then Monday 07.30-20.00


could be a rough weekened

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#1381609 - 07/07/2016 22:33 Re: SA - Cold front following Cold Pool July 9th to 15th July [Re: StormCapture]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1593
Loc: Bridgewater
if you're cold, here is a video to warm you up
Pinery Fire S.A - Fire trucks overrun by flames and crash
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIHIsSJ2Txk

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#1381686 - 08/07/2016 18:16 Re: SA - Cold front following Cold Pool July 9th to 15th July [Re: StormCapture]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2105
Loc: Clare, SA
By latest GFS especially, this is a very exciting event indeed. The widespread saturated catchments, plus the rainfall from this system has the potential for some rivers to burst their banks.

Bom's rainfall outlook as it stands.
"Falls reaching 30 to 50 mm over southern coasts, the Mt Lofty Ranges, Mid North and possibly the western coast of Eyre Peninsula, increasing to 50 to 80 mm over the higher peaks of the Mt Lofty Ranges with possible isolated falls reaching up to 100mm"

My brief take on it, don't want to look too much into it before the event to avoid dissapointment...but.

Rainband to resaturate, maybe even riverine flood a few areas on the weekend, probably more of a mid north event that part...then the cold pool and front, with HEAVY orographic rain, probable flooding here n there, and snow down to 600m settled on Tuesday morning. The snow part is iffy, as once again it is a very sharp cuttoff, which will undoubtedly deliver some excellent snow, and very low level snow over Victoria and Tasmania. However here it deepends how far north it pushes. As it currently stands, for a brief period Tuesday morning as by current GFS, I'd expect any heavy cells to settle to 600ish metres.
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#1381691 - 08/07/2016 18:40 Re: SA - Cold front following Cold Pool July 9th to 15th July [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
well i'll be buggered,
looks like the most anal system of the season yet, by the time
it gets to us it'll be fully cooked and so will we.
both access and gfs have that 520 line coming up tantalizingly
close, 5-700k to the east and the mainland coast of south east
s.a., victoria border to melbourne and pretty much all of
tassie would have been having snow at sea level, damn it.
still there's plenty of winter yet and the southern coast
still may yet cop a bullseye from a ballistic 520.
having said that it's going to get bone snapping cold,
relatively speaking for sa of course, and it looks like the
best place to be for some white fluffy stuff are the usual
spots in the eensy-weensy hours of tuesday morning.
after the last lot all relevant areas of the state are
juiced up and ready to flood their butts off, emergency
services are as ready as they can be.
see if this system can produce some decent snap, crackle and
pop coldies for a change, the offerings have been pretty
ordinary so far. and talking about rock solid coldies i'll
put my order in for a couple of roaring pea sized hail showers
complete with a side order of thunder and a nader dessert
thanks.

TH
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#1381696 - 08/07/2016 19:18 Re: SA - Cold front following Cold Pool July 9th to 15th July [Re: StormCapture]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 552
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Looks like a nice bit of thick cloud on that front:

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#1381708 - 08/07/2016 19:43 Re: SA - Cold front following Cold Pool July 9th to 15th July [Re: StormCapture]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 527
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
Yes tv news services predicting a rain of biblical proportions next 4 days

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#1381709 - 08/07/2016 19:45 Re: SA - Cold front following Cold Pool July 9th to 15th July [Re: Markus]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7030
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: Markus
The widespread saturated catchments, plus the rainfall from this system has the potential for some rivers to burst their banks.

I think there will be flooding of some level here in SA. Onkaparinga has been showing changes in behaviour last two reasonable systems. This is becoming a winter similar to the early-to-mid 1990s. At least once then the river broke is banks in a major way -- not just saying that.

I think it's right to be cautious about what to expect, however the pure physics/saturated state of the catchment suggest dramatic [surface runoff] isn't far off.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (08/07/2016 19:50)

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#1381716 - 08/07/2016 21:12 Re: SA - Cold front following Cold Pool July 9th to 15th July [Re: StormCapture]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1642
Loc: Uleybury
Looks like widespread good falls across the state with 25 to 50mm for the Adelaide area and more in the hills that could see 50 to 75mm with isolated falls of 100 to possibly 120mm

Tomorrow to be a NW cloudband with a Jet which will assist in getting it to Adelaide. Up to 8mm tomorrow but most of the rain to be Sunday morning where we could wake up with falls of 10 to 20mm in the gauges, possibly 30 in the hills and across the western parts of the state.

Monday the first front to move in bringing the first round of showers with another 6 to 15mm with local heavy falls possible on the foothills and in the hills themselves. NW winds to be blustery with averages of 35 to 55km/h.

Tuesday the gem at this stage with the cold pool to come right up from the Deep South that will bring heavy showers, hail and possible local thunder with the hail showers. Another 4 to 15mm of rain possible with more in the hills.

Snow wise not really sure but still a good chance of it on Mount Bryan but still debating on Mount Lofty.

So all in all, we should see a good wet few days and hopefully some great coldies lurking around.

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#1381728 - 08/07/2016 23:33 Re: SA - Cold front following Cold Pool July 9th to 15th July [Re: StormCapture]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1593
Loc: Bridgewater
radar broken again.

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#1381736 - 09/07/2016 07:23 Re: SA - Cold front following Cold Pool July 9th to 15th July [Re: StormCapture]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14848
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Reasonable system though certainly wind will be a feature again with this one...and a fairly substantial dry slot between the NW cloudband rainband and the second front monday night/tuesday morning and then the second and main cold pool wednesday. Expecting 12-18mm from the rainband around the traps in town and probably similar from showers/cold air afterward. Not super wet, hills more....snow wise, it is touch and go...would like to see a little more penetration of the cold air but certainly plenty of hail at least.

But a very, very broad and expansive area of cold air, as broad as I have seen in many many years to slam VIC and TAS and from the west to wsw too which is even more impressive.

TS cool

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#1381752 - 09/07/2016 10:48 Re: SA - Cold front following Cold Pool July 9th to 15th July [Re: Eevo]
Chris #3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2009
Posts: 1884
Loc: Semaphore SA
Originally Posted By: Eevo
if you're cold, here is a video to warm you up
Pinery Fire S.A - Fire trucks overrun by flames and crash
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIHIsSJ2Txk



Oh my god.

Always imagined these burnovers would be a bit slower. The speed of the fire is just ridiculous.

Your link has been made private - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qnf1G-Kba30

People need to see this, just to help understand the speed that fire can move.

As for the event...looking forward to the rain. Don't mind the cold smile


Edited by Chris #3 (09/07/2016 10:56)
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#1381773 - 09/07/2016 14:22 Re: SA - Cold front following Cold Pool July 9th to 15th July [Re: StormCapture]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 503
Loc: Chadstone Vic
WOW that is amazing footage that fire is moving so very fast.

Looking forward to all the reports in coming days.
Think the rain forecasts are a bit high, hills will do well but other than that be a bit less I feel.

Impressive system very windy and cold and the frosts afterwards should also be impressive.

Its only early July July-Oct going to be very active and fun i feel

Enjoy
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#1381776 - 09/07/2016 15:10 Re: SA - Cold front following Cold Pool July 9th to 15th July [Re: StormCapture]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1593
Loc: Bridgewater
some of the models are still showing quite low rainfall.

sat til tues
ADFD: 37mm-104mm
OCF: 30mm
GFS: 37mm

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#1381777 - 09/07/2016 16:48 Re: SA - Cold front following Cold Pool July 9th to 15th July [Re: StormCapture]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1642
Loc: Uleybury
Now a SWW is issued out for the regions with the winds to hit by midnight to early hours Sunday

Bom upping the gaugings to reach anywhere from 20 to 60mm over the few days

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#1381787 - 09/07/2016 18:58 Re: SA - Cold front following Cold Pool July 9th to 15th July [Re: StormCapture]
Ryan Hothersall Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2009
Posts: 769
Loc: Gulfview Heights, South Austra...
Been windy all day here in Gulfview Heights.
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#1381795 - 09/07/2016 19:53 Re: SA - Cold front following Cold Pool July 9th to 15th July [Re: StormCapture]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 513
Loc: North Brighton, SA
This is some warning!...
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for DAMAGING WINDS
For people in the Adelaide Metropolitan, Mount Lofty Ranges, West Coast, Lower Eyre Peninsula, Eastern Eyre Peninsula, Yorke Peninsula, Kangaroo Island, Mid North and parts of the Murraylands districts.

Issued at 7:15 pm Saturday, 9 July 2016.
Strong northerly winds are expected to reach gale force at times, averaging 50-65 km/h with gusts of 80-95 km/h, over the West Coast district this evening, extending to the Eastern Eyre Peninsula and Lower Eyre Peninsula districts later tonight.
The damaging winds are then forecast to extend to Yorke Peninsula and Kangaroo Island around midnight or early Sunday morning, then to the Mid North, Adelaide and Mount Lofty Ranges and the west of the Murraylands district around sunrise. The winds are expected to ease over the western districts during Sunday morning.
The strongest winds are most likely near the coast and over elevated topography or associated with heavy showers.
Locations which may be affected include Ceduna and Wudinna, then Cleve and Port Lincoln this evening, Whyalla, Maitland and Kingscote early Sunday morning, and then Clare, Nuriootpa, Adelaide, Strathalbyn and Victor Harbor around sunrise on Sunday.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move vehicles under cover or away from trees;
* Secure or put away loose items around your property.
* Stay indoors, away from windows, while conditions are severe.
The next warning is due to be issued by 10:15 pm.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 215. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
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#1381796 - 09/07/2016 20:11 Re: SA - Cold front following Cold Pool July 9th to 15th July [Re: StormCapture]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 552
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
I reckon that's a pretty impressive system!


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#1381799 - 09/07/2016 20:45 Re: SA - Cold front following Cold Pool July 9th to 15th July [Re: StormCapture]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7030
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Yes, it does seem rather impressive betsuin smile ... and here it comes on the radar. Spent some time today preparing for this system.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (09/07/2016 20:47)

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