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#1381867 - 10/07/2016 19:37 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 936
Loc: West Coast, TAS, 310m ASL / Bu...
Check out snow forecast on MetEye, for 10am Wednesday.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/

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#1381910 - 11/07/2016 09:21 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2117
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Still looks good for snow to 200m.😀

Flurries to sea level around lunch time Wednesday.

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#1381911 - 11/07/2016 09:24 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: Stale fish]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 395
Loc: Hobart
Originally Posted By: Stale fish
Still looks good for snow to 200m.😀

Flurries to sea level around lunch time Wednesday.


Is there any prospect this will be as good as last year's snow? Are the main indicators far off that one.

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#1381914 - 11/07/2016 09:44 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2117
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Not the same in my book!!

5cm at 300m

2cm at 200m

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#1381915 - 11/07/2016 09:56 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 936
Loc: West Coast, TAS, 310m ASL / Bu...
Morning all

Blew that hard last night it blew my thermometer off the wall on the back porch. It had been there for years. Must have just hit hard from the right direction. Mount Read had gusts to 109 km/h through the night. Blowing a consistent 83 km/h over the last couple of hours.

4.5mm till 9am

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#1381921 - 11/07/2016 10:55 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 719
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Hi all, I'm hoping Wed is not the last we see of that sort of weather for Hobart this season ? Certainly has had a Spring feel about of late with warms days around 15c and warm nights as well. So after this little blast on Wed it's back to Spring again , certainly my plants are well into bloom. smile

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#1381940 - 11/07/2016 15:32 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
wingtipvortex Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2011
Posts: 73
Loc: Tasmania
Won't be the last. This is a bonus event for us.
_________________________
Kingston. Low Event Watcher!

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#1381960 - 11/07/2016 17:32 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: wingtipvortex]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 936
Loc: West Coast, TAS, 310m ASL / Bu...
BOM now has snow to "low levels" Wednesday for the NW, W, SE, Upper Derwent, and Midlands forecast areas. Roughly 2/3 of the State.

The remaining areas are forecasting snow down to between 200m and 500m.

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#1381963 - 11/07/2016 17:48 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 936
Loc: West Coast, TAS, 310m ASL / Bu...
As an after thought...

Been a wild day here with sustained winds on nearby Mount Read of >50km/h. With gusts from between >70km/h to a peak of 107km/h late this morning.

Had 8mm since 9am. Surprisingly, at 5:45pm, the new thermometer from the local hardware store is showing 11. Feels like about two or three degrees with the wind!

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#1381978 - 11/07/2016 19:03 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
wingtipvortex Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2011
Posts: 73
Loc: Tasmania
BoM has also downgraded precip from 2-5mm, now 0-1mm.
That's Hobart of course. Now we sit and wait patiently.
_________________________
Kingston. Low Event Watcher!

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#1381979 - 11/07/2016 19:05 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 719
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Hobart 16 c today and plenty more of those sort of temps coming except for a glitch on Wed , Spring is here me thinks.

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#1381986 - 11/07/2016 20:22 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
wingtipvortex Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2011
Posts: 73
Loc: Tasmania
Spring is not here just yet you doofus. Winter has only just begun. Winter only officially started 5 weeks ago, and there is still potentially 6-8 weeks left for snow events. Lets just wait and see, before we start getting homicidal😄
_________________________
Kingston. Low Event Watcher!

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#1381988 - 11/07/2016 20:46 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1965
Loc: Westbury
I heard it was summer arriving, not spring

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#1381992 - 11/07/2016 20:57 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Grumpy Dave Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 28/02/2013
Posts: 6
Loc: Campania, Tas
Wattles already flowering in the Coal River valley, may well be an early Spring coming.
I doubt it though.
_________________________
Moved back to Tassie last year after too many years in SE Qld.
Loving cool weather.

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#1382000 - 11/07/2016 22:19 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1965
Loc: Westbury
There's not much to chose between this system and last years system. At 48hrs GFS has similar precip in the Hobart region, similar pressures, 850 Wind direction is the same, 500HPA hgt's are similar, not as low at the minimum, but stay at low for longer.

Where the systems diverge is the upper tmps , 500TMPS are a few degrees warmers and the 850TMPS about 1 degree warmer. Which moves the predicted 0 degree isotherm up 200 meters or so.

All in all I'd roughly expect the settled snow line to be ~100m higher in the SE. Depends if precip arrives with the coldest air as well (which it did last year).

The extent of low level falls may be smaller as well, in 2015 the air tmps were similar across the state, whereas this time the northern half and in particular the NE won't be as cold as the southern half.

Have the GFS forecast data to look back on, both maps (Grib daa) and meteograms.

The biggest difference is the weather before and after, a cold change occurred before and after last Augusts event, this year it's heavy rain before and clear after.


Edited by Snowies (11/07/2016 22:21)

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#1382001 - 11/07/2016 22:32 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2117
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Thanks Snowies!!

How much snow would be the max do you think for me at 300m with this system.

WEST COAST should be snowbound with 20cm i think!!

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#1382018 - 12/07/2016 09:10 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 936
Loc: West Coast, TAS, 310m ASL / Bu...
30mm in the gauge this morning. 8 at 8am.

Dark and gloomy kind of day. Strong, gusty NW >65km/h with gusts to 98km/h (35-50kts) in the last hour on Mount Read.

Snowies, great information. Cheers

SF, I like your prediction for here. grin

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#1382021 - 12/07/2016 09:27 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1965
Loc: Westbury
Hard to say, depends how much of the cold air field that is sitting to the SW of the low gets flung around the low before the low passes to the south. If most of it goes around the low then the west coast and areas like Waratah will be fairly hard hit, if it splits more evenly then maybe a reasonable cover (7-8cm) - will have to snow hard in the relatively narrow window we have to get up there.

GFS 12Z is quite different to yesterday's 00Z run, more even spread over the state and colder, I don't think we'll see snow to 300m today unless the models are out by a bit. Might reach 400-500m by later this evening, dropping quickly between 1am and 4am toward sea level, for northern and western areas it bottoms out around 7am and for the SE and east its more like 10am tomorrow.

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#1382032 - 12/07/2016 11:02 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1965
Loc: Westbury
Perhaps the one thing working against the SE is the winds don't swing to the SW or the S, winds remain predominantly westerly. Generally the more southerly the stream the better for the SE.

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#1382041 - 12/07/2016 11:49 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2117
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Thanks Snowies,

Anything but Southerly for me as I miss that direction badly!!

Snow has just settled at Great Lake, Mt Wellington and Mt Field in the last 20mins.

4.0mm since 9am and steady rain.

7.6 degrees and a baro of 983.2hpa

Looks very windy for Wednesday night and Thursday.

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