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#1384627 - 15/08/2016 18:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
S .O. Offline
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Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1533
Loc: Southern Victoria
PDO is heading towards negative Territory . Down to 0.13 from a high of 1.6 in April this year , and before that a peak of 1.9 in late 2014 . If it does switch back to negative it would be the first time back in Negative territory since it snapped positive around this time in 2013 ?
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#1384638 - 15/08/2016 22:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1694
Thanks S.O for that info and that is correct.

Interesting to see potential of some decent rain across large parts of southern and eastern Australia the next week or so. The first two weeks of August have been rather lean.


Edited by _Johnno_ (15/08/2016 22:50)
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#1384639 - 15/08/2016 23:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
S .O. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1533
Loc: Southern Victoria
Yes it has been lean , but a return of prolonged /overcast and mutilple fronts is set to return . Obvious nodal activity has setup this sub fortnightal stall locally . That will break down late this week . We are getting closer to when the Pacifics influence will start overpowering the Southern oceans . If anything I would say that this has been the case in the last 3-4 weeks . Not sure how much longer the IOD will be a factor aswell ( ATLEAST atmospherically in an broad range infeed scenario that we have seen ) . That WNW angle of VWV may start to become closer to NW , which should help different areas going deeper into winter /early spring . Waters off Sumatra have reached their peak and are easing , meanwhile near the seychelles has warmed . Sth of Java and our NW Kimberley region is still strong so local Infeeds will still be possible . More so interesting is recent advent of some Equatorial cross flow into that region .
Most interesting I saw tonight was a comment by one of the weather girls ( may have been Jane ) , that this was the warmest start to August since 2011. Sobering
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#1384655 - 16/08/2016 10:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14866
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Australia is going to get done like a dinner over the coming weeks, massive lower pressure anoms from all models showing up, few very big cut offs likely.

TS cool

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#1384660 - 16/08/2016 11:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: Thunderstruck]
Bello Weather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/07/2012
Posts: 358
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: Thunderstruck
Australia is going to get done like a dinner over the coming weeks, massive lower pressure anoms from all models showing up, few very big cut offs likely.

TS cool


Been watching that, assume this is a result of the AAO which is as strongly negative as I have ever seen it, combined with the negative IOD? EC and GFS show a massive system working through southern Aus next week...
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#1384661 - 16/08/2016 11:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: S .O.]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2755
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: S .O.
PDO is heading towards negative Territory . Down to 0.13 from a high of 1.6 in April this year , and before that a peak of 1.9 in late 2014 . If it does switch back to negative it would be the first time back in Negative territory since it snapped positive around this time in 2013 ?


Are you using NCEI? This has been lower than the Mantua data, which I've been using because its the first one I was aware of. Not sure why the difference but as far as I can tell the NCEI one looks a little bit more up to date in methodology.

The current situation is curious with the North Pacific High usually associated with the transition from El Nino to La Nina situated much further north than usual. This has produced something close to a cool PDO pattern with a warm NW blob with cool water arcing to the east and south. However there is not much cool water to the east (more SE only), and the cool water to the south is at about 30N, instead of along the equator, with a substantial warm area of water continuing between the subtropical cool water fringing the south border of the North Pacific High, and the cool water caused by equatorial upwelling. TAO has shown subsurface warmth just to the north of the equator strengthening again with anomalies as high as 7 degrees above normal at 4N, 140W.

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#1384669 - 16/08/2016 14:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: Thunderstruck]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17913
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: Thunderstruck
Australia is going to get done like a dinner over the coming weeks, massive lower pressure anoms from all models showing up, few very big cut offs likely.

TS cool


EC certainly thinks so.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/...xpos=0&ypos=195
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#1384702 - 16/08/2016 22:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
S .O. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1533
Loc: Southern Victoria
Yes Mike . NCEI .
Although I've only just checked in on it a few times in the last 6 mths . More so just observing the real time surface maps , that high has parked itself off the west coast of Nth America for atleast a month . And the Ekman spiral setup has been working to help some mid lattitudal upwelling . This AAO trough is also going to help boost /reinforce the Southern Hem feed into the Equatorial cool anomalies adjacent to the Galapagos .
The warm water off The Mexican Nth Hem Eastern tropical pacific won't make too much of an issue now . Blob or no blob I can only see a minimum of borderline / light moderate La Niņa . And if the PDO does trend full negative then we will be looking at a multi year event .


Edited by S .O. (16/08/2016 22:46)
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#1384716 - 17/08/2016 10:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 487
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Crazy how much heat is in the pacific.
August 83 98 2016

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#1384736 - 17/08/2016 16:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 487
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Can see on satellite how far north that cold air is off Western Australia.

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#1384789 - 18/08/2016 14:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2755
Loc: Buderim
A further thought on the PDO is the re-emergence mechanism. The PDO signature in the North Pacific can often be hidden below the surface during NH summer, and then re-emerge in late Autumn/winter as the mixed layer depth deepens. Currently while the surface has lost much of the typical warm phase PDO pattern, subsurface SST analysis from the BOM shows a strong warm phase PDO pattern.

The re-emergence mechanism is not guaranteed though. I note that the initial appearance of the recent strong warm PDO pattern was in winter, so the cooler PDO pattern from the previous winter did not manage to re-emerge in that instance.

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#1384937 - 20/08/2016 08:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1609
Loc: Kingaroy
The -IOD appears to be weakening now and the Pacific appears to be staying neutral so far, our chances of a decent wet season are diminishing.

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#1385001 - 21/08/2016 11:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
S .O. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1533
Loc: Southern Victoria
The IOD will have next to Zero influence on Qld Tropical wet season .
You could argue that it may setup more available moisture for an earlier start , but if it remains stronger and the pacific is still neutral. if anything the IOD (as its influence in the Sthn Hem. weakens) , would possibly divert convection further west from Qld . Whilst you would still see higher coastal falls , inland would have to rely on sweeping systems from the west , which would most likely have run out of some steam . Both negative early on would heighten early signals , like this week .
The Pacific still has a long way to play out . Once Equinox is reached then that maybe less likely , but heat is still being conveyed back west .
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#1385003 - 21/08/2016 12:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1609
Loc: Kingaroy
The Indian Ocean will hog the convection if it stays warm.

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#1385121 - 23/08/2016 06:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 487
Loc: East Lake Macquarie

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#1385422 - 25/08/2016 15:28 CHEMTRAILS SPEED UP GLOBAL WARMING [Re: ColdFront]
Neoman Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 04/08/2016
Posts: 2
**edited, removed off topic content.


Edited by Mick10 (25/08/2016 19:17)

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#1385431 - 25/08/2016 16:37 Re: CHEMTRAILS SPEED UP GLOBAL WARMING [Re: ColdFront]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Wow how have you made a new topic within a topic?

Interesting stuff, I don't know much about Chemtrails but I know they have something to do with the topic that was banned.
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#1385486 - 26/08/2016 10:05 Re: CHEMTRAILS SPEED UP GLOBAL WARMING [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17913
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Getting mods to remove the post. I have to create this post (for something to notify on) to get them to address the name change.
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#1385487 - 26/08/2016 10:06 Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17913
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Fixed the title?
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#1385488 - 26/08/2016 10:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4859
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
That was definitely a wierd from from left feild. Damn dose pesky chemtrails wink

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