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#1386192 - 04/09/2016 15:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: RC]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1782
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: RC
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_

RC I will let the stats do the talking.. You go on about how other El Nino break downs were different for your area well l


Except I didn't say that.

All I said was that we did not get the sort of weather NSW is getting from the breakdown. The breakdown for this area gave nothing that fantastic other then anomalous dumps of rain, combined with long dry spells.

Everyone has then done chinese whispers and blown it all up.


RC is right in the sense that this 'breakdown' has been a few prominent rain events separated out by long dry spells. We've also had a continuation of above average temperatures throughout autumn and winter.

But considering this is QLD's dry season, wouldn't that be the best we could expect from a 'breakdown' in winter? I'm not sure how that somehow means we missed out.

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#1386193 - 04/09/2016 15:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: RC]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1657
Originally Posted By: RC
I wonder what this coming season will bare for the eastern tropics.

Except for one or two major anomalous events, which if you were to ignore the eastern tropical coast has had a low rainfall year. The El Nino breakdown has not done much for this region as it has all gone into the south west.

Even now there is nothing on the horizon worthy of much excitement.


I don't see you compare to NSW in this statement, end of the day your statement is wrong about "not doing much for your area" if you know the history about break down of El Nino's they tend to impact Queensland last compared to other states, the break down usually begins in the southern states late summer early Autumn and doesn't impact Queensland especially central Qld, sub tropical Qld and tropical Qld until late Autumn or early Winter so you would expect a poor year up until that point as that is what normally happens with El Nino break downs.. So it has gone to script.. But you surely can not argue since Winter started you have received poor rains especially for an area which is known for being dry east of the ranges and for Winter!

I agree and understand it has been a poor year but you expect that SO FAR but do not agree with this El Nino not being traditional and breaking down like you would expect too and a wet Winter to go with it for central QLD including the Rockhampton region.. That I can not fathom.
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#1386194 - 04/09/2016 15:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1657
Even now there is nothing on the horizon worthy of much excitement.

Its early September! You've been lucky to receive what you have so far the past 2-3 months! Do you understand this is like your DRY SEASON? I think you are having trouble comprehending this?

Your rainfall in June and July was 400-500% higher than normal compared to the average, any stats person would tell you that is off the scale regardless what season it is that's just not meant to happen! I really don't think you understand how good it has been there the last 2-3 months.


Edited by _Johnno_ (04/09/2016 15:39)
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#1386195 - 04/09/2016 15:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1657
As for NSW especially southern NSW you expect it to be rainy season right now this is when the rain peaks this time of the year and with the break down of El Nino and negative IOD even more so... So you can't even compare your region to this area.. Chalk and cheese.

If anything us Victorians should be complaining as the break down has been good without being outstanding down this way parts of SA and western Victoria have had close to an average season just getting by (Winter) without being overly wet, I know people from the Murraylands, Riverland in SA, Mallee, Wimmera of Victoria that could do with a fair bit more rain... And these people have a right to complain as this is the "wet season" down here but it has been nothing like NSW in these areas not even close but hey it's how the cookie crumbles.


Edited by _Johnno_ (04/09/2016 15:47)
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#1386199 - 04/09/2016 17:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1545
Loc: Kingaroy
Kingaroy is running below average in terms of rainfall, we're going to need a wet spring to make average.

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#1386200 - 04/09/2016 17:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Hopefull Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1030
Loc: Toowoomba
To me the change to from a weak el nino to the 1988-90 la nina really hit the SE QLD-NE NSW first in Australia in April. The big rain events during the breakdown of the 1982-83 el nino started in March-April and by the end of May the central East of Australia had by Far the biggest positive anomalies. NE NSW-SE QLD was very dry until a major ECL in July heralded the start of the mid-1973 to about the beginning of 1976 la nina for that area. I experienced all that and remember it very well.


Edited by Hopefull (04/09/2016 17:34)

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#1386203 - 04/09/2016 18:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: Chris Stumer]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17726
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
Kingaroy is running below average in terms of rainfall, we're going to need a wet spring to make average.



Kingaroy average rainfall to the end of August is 408.6mm. This year it is 429.2mm.

Average ..... actual

jan 96.1......142.0
feb 97.0......59.2
mar 62.1......71.2
apr 24.5......4.2
may 31.6......5.6
jun 47.1......76.6
jul 20.3......44.4
aug 29.9......26.0
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#1386205 - 04/09/2016 18:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Hopefull Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1030
Loc: Toowoomba
You certainly have to be careful what you say and get your facts right on this thread eh!! I suppose that is fair enough.


Edited by Hopefull (04/09/2016 18:27)

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#1386206 - 04/09/2016 18:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10146
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
As for NSW especially southern NSW you expect it to be rainy season right now this is when the rain peaks this time of the year and with the break down of El Nino and negative IOD even more so... So you can't even compare your region to this area.. Chalk and cheese.
Agree with almost everything else in this and other posts though. But pretty much only over the southern inland/ranges and into isolated parts of the central ranges of NSW is this true (most of the central ranges/slopes tend towards having a somewhat uniform spread of precip).
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_072000.shtml Adelong
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_074114.shtml Wagga
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_072146.shtml Albury
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_063065.shtml Orange
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_065016.shtml Forbes

Otherwise elsewhere across much of NSW, the time around August is generally either the driest or near-driest time of year.
Once you get north of about Dubbo over the inland and ranges, normally the summer months are the noticably wetter months.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_052026.shtml Walgett
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_056002.shtml Armidale
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_064008.shtml Coonabarabran

Along the entire NSW coast it is a similar story, depending on where you are, the summer or autumn months are normally the wetter months. Once northwards of Newcastle/Hunter region along the coast, the difference between the usually wetter summer/autumn months and the drier winter/spring months becomes much larger.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_058158.shtml Murwillumbah
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_059040.shtml Coffs
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_061055.shtml Newcastle
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_068038.shtml Kiama
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_069002.shtml Bega

So to compare central QLD with northern parts of NSW (rather than the whole state) wouldn't be the worst comparison to make (though far from a perfect comparision, as being further south brings more variability and exposure to mid latitude influences than in central QLD).
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South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
September 2017 Rainfall: 2.6mm (Sep Avg. 56.6mm) // September 2017 Raindays: 1 (Sep Avg. 8.4 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1248.2mm (Jan-Sep Avg. 1153.5mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 106 (Jan-Sep Avg. 102.0 raindays)

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#1386208 - 04/09/2016 18:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: Hopefull]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17726
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: Hopefull
You certainly have to be careful what you say and get your facts right on this thread eh!! I suppose that is fair enough.


I just get fed up with all the doomsday stuff. If you're going to make a claim that the sky is falling at least look up first and make sure it is. August was quite dry here too but I accept it for what it is.

I know recently you were pulled up for it yourself in another thread. I get that it can be frustrating at times, particularly during severe drought , however I feel sometimes people's comments are due to unrealistic expectation . The weather is irratic.

If it is ALWAYS too dry where you live which seems to apply to at least a couple of posters then maybe the option is to move to an area with higher annual rainfall? In Tully they've had a gutful of rain.ALternatively you might learn to accept it for what it is.

I get the impression with some that they hold onto one event eons ago and expect that it is the norm. There's a reason they hang on to it. It was exceptional.
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#1386210 - 04/09/2016 18:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Hopefull Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1030
Loc: Toowoomba
Well, Coldfront that is a rather aggressive post. I grew up in Lismore, NSW,that is, so I know about wet weather and floods. You say you are fed up with doomsday stuff. What doomsday stuff? I fully understand how erratic the weather is and if I get pulled up it is usually because I try to put a bit of realism in some expectations. Your post is so illogical. Simple fact is over long periods most of the weather in Australia is mind numbingly boring.

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#1386211 - 04/09/2016 19:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1620
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
lol
lol 2 lines
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#1386212 - 04/09/2016 19:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
BIG T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 937
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Well at my joint we haven't had the same rainfall as typical over the last 18 months or so. However it's been incredible that almost every time me and the neighbour have a chat and say we need a bit of a drink soon , we have got it. Right on time. Quite amazing really. So all in all , it's been quite ok.

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#1386213 - 04/09/2016 19:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1620
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Seems a bit up this August in Roma.Of cause different else where.
August 2016 Total 39.0 9 day(s)
Aug 1986-2014 Average Total 24.1 3.6 day(s)
Aug 1986-2014 Wettest Total 85.8 1998
Aug 1986-2014 Wettest 24hr Total 41.6 6th 2000
Aug 1986-2014 Driest Total 0.0 1991

Jan-Aug 2016 Total 355.6 43 day(s)
Jan-Aug 1986-2014 Average Total 364.4
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch50 and ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1386214 - 04/09/2016 19:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: Hopefull]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17726
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: Hopefull
Well, Coldfront that is a rather aggressive post.


Which bit?
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#1386216 - 04/09/2016 20:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1782
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
I didn't think I'd ever see such a volatile argument without the words 'climate change' being uttered. Is this argument really worth it or is it actually just pent-up frustration at the failed manifestation of La Nina?

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#1386217 - 04/09/2016 20:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: Nature's Fury]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17726
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
is it actually just pent-up frustration at the failed manifestation of La Nina?


Maybe, but then on historical occurance, Nina was only ever a 40% chance anyway as I and others mentioned months back yet people disregarded the stats and went with a developing LaNina as the likely outcome.

There certainly seems to be a lot of bitching about how dry it is despite most areas receiving average to above average falls.
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#1386218 - 04/09/2016 20:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Hopefull Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1030
Loc: Toowoomba
How long back was it that some of us without tech knowledge were sprayed with contempt because we dared question the then supposed certain massive coming la nina . I have not even mentioned the fact that here in Burp/Narangba is is ferociously dry,until now.

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#1386221 - 04/09/2016 21:03 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: Nature's Fury]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7038
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Is this argument really worth it or is it actually just pent-up frustration at the failed manifestation of La Nina?

Would it make a difference if one used the words "successful [insert phenomenon name]."...? That's just some fun for anyone wanting a lighter-hearted moment smile .


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (04/09/2016 21:04)

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#1386224 - 04/09/2016 22:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5295
Loc: Not tellin!
The thing I see happening here is the "it didn't rain here so it must be dry everywhere" argument. I have been guilty of this too in the past, particularly when I had a lot more riding on a rain for my farm. It's difficult for some to accept that rain is very rarely evenly falls over a wide area. It gets worse with storms.

Looking at the rainfall anom map it's quite ridiculous to try and argue this has not been a wet year in Aust. Some places and areas will be light on but that's just part of living on a continent as bis as ours. On the whole it's wet. Let hope the flooding coming from flooding Is not too bad.

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