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#1385915 - 01/09/2016 09:25 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10135
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
And to echo your opinion SF, and in with info that MH will relate to, we will be well above our September average max for 4 days in the next week.

It's just the way it is this year. Above average temps pretty much everywhere. frown But what can ya do, it is what it is.

You guys have a brief cool change just flicking the bottom of the state today, looks kinda cute on the sat pic.

I'm eyeing around 9th/10th September for a possible decent cool change. Not much going on before that time it seems.

SF - good growing weather - ESPECIALLY THE BLOODY GRASS!! smile

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#1385924 - 01/09/2016 11:12 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 942
Loc: West Coast, TAS, 310m ASL / Bu...
No respite from the rain here.

27mm till 9am to kick the month off.


Originally Posted By: DaveM
It's just the way it is this year. Above average temps pretty much everywhere. frown But what can ya do, it is what it is.


That's it Dave, you hit the nail on the head. I'd like to add that above average temperatures are here to stay and are not just isolated to specific areas or to this year exclusively.
Our planet has warmed and cooled many times before and I don't think that pattern is about to alter any time soon. Time for mankind to adapt to the current cycle of warming.






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#1385932 - 01/09/2016 11:45 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10135
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yes P - I've become much less analytical of weather in the last year or so, a little more "whateva" I have a glance at models now, rarely dive deep.

As to your "climate" comment - yes indeed, at some stage there will be another ice age.

That's a nice little start to the month there for rain. smile You should have webbed feet and foot rot by now. grin

We have approx 8mm kick off BUT it will be wetter tonight/tomorrow/possibly Saturday. Could break our September average of about 46mm by the end of the weekend. smile We don't actually need any more rain at this stage but we're gunna get it anyhow. grin

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#1385961 - 01/09/2016 19:34 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
BrightonBreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/07/2016
Posts: 194
Loc: Brighton, Tas 55m ASL
Evening everybody,

Had a job down at kingston yesterday arvo, went inside about 2.00pm, came out of the centre at 4.00pm, massive change in the weather, was quite humid and warm, with lots of convection to the northwest around the mountain! looked like a few cells were popping up just off the east coast later on that arvo.

Quite a bit drier to the north of Hobart last month, Brighton's August average is usually 38.2mm, however only managed 20.8mm! Only a light shower when you compare it to the amount of rain that Payshense receives, must be the only person in tassie that reckons we need more rain! haha

YTD- 357.2mm

Overnight minimums were a bit warmer for winter as well, only got down to -3.6 degrees (June) managed just a dozen or so frosts, yesterday we reached a high of 19.4 degrees.

Max wind gust for August was 81 km/h WNW (13th) just before a southwesterly change.

Anyway, as everyone has said, it seems like we're in for a warmer and drier spring, especially once the usual northwesterlies kick into gear, here's hoping for some good spring/summer thunderstorms!

Cheers, Jake.

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#1385999 - 02/09/2016 09:28 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10135
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
G'day Jake - good to see your post. An average of 38mm is not much at all for sure. I always told visitors of how little rain the strip from Brighton to Ross could get. Double rainshadow and all that jazz. Your area is usually one of the first to brown off every year. From there to St Peters Pass can get horribly dry.

I really hope you get some decent rain soon, MH would enjoy the same smile

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#1386005 - 02/09/2016 10:25 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 2015
Loc: Westbury
Not bad to be only 40mm off Hobart City in Brighton, I scored worse living in Moonah and it only gets drier as you head north normally.

Back into the frost this morning, down to 0.1. Looks like a much warmer week ahead.


Edited by Snowies (02/09/2016 10:27)

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#1386063 - 02/09/2016 19:45 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Online   sad
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 740
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Hi all , about 13 c here today in Hobart . Winter well and truly dead and only into Spring a hand full of days and we are already staring down the barrel of a few 20 c plus days next week.
Looks like 2015 all over again ?
Where is my late season snow you guys promised ? Just joking guys settle down smile

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#1386082 - 02/09/2016 21:46 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
wingtipvortex Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2011
Posts: 84
Loc: Tasmania
It is odd there wasn't a decent snowfall in August. We did do well in July though.
_________________________
Kingston. Low Event Watcher!

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#1386093 - 02/09/2016 23:03 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: wingtipvortex]
MOUNTAIN h2o Online   sad
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 740
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Originally Posted By: wingtipvortex
It is odd there wasn't a decent snowfall in August. We did do well in July though.


Yeah pretty odd indeed , I remember each year doing the Father's day cards to the folks on the mainland and can't remember a year not writing about the snow we had on the mountain around that period.

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#1386197 - 04/09/2016 16:50 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 942
Loc: West Coast, TAS, 310m ASL / Bu...
Hi all

10mm in the gauge this morning, steady misty drizzle all day.

After two rain free mild warm days. It's back to the rain and cold. Thankfully, thought for a moment I might have been in for drought conditions with a heatwave to top it off!

Would still love to see one last decent cold change charging up from Antarctica.

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#1386201 - 04/09/2016 17:35 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 317
Loc: Frosty, Kemp's Creek
I think Liawenee had like 80cm total this year, I could be wrong though.

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#1386234 - 05/09/2016 09:30 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10135
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
At the moment, next weekend or just before/after looking half a chance of snow on higher areas/peaks.

We've had over our September rain average in just 3 days. Avge only 40 odd mm but we now have about 50. These piddly numbers would make P laugh himself to death grin

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#1386267 - 05/09/2016 21:01 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 2015
Loc: Westbury
Looks like 30-50mm building in the models tonight to come through thurs and fri, followed by some cold air through the weekend into the new week - should feel less like late spring and more like late winter for a few days... sort of.

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#1386276 - 06/09/2016 08:52 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
slipperyfish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/11/2011
Posts: 1368
Loc: South Mission Beach QLD
Tell me, are the models fairly reliable down there in their forecasting? I know up here in the tropics they will forecast 50-100mm and by the time the event hits, we may be lucky to get 10mm.

I know the wet season up here is highly unpredictable and I am not having a shot at modelling, I am just wondering if they have a better success rate down there where there are four seasons, not two.

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#1386279 - 06/09/2016 09:41 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10135
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yes should cool off a bit better this time after Friday. Certainly though Spring warmer temps are coming along over the coming weeks - as to be expected.

Slip - I think the west coast rain forecasts possibly quite ok if you balance out the different models. Forecasting rain on the West Coast is quite possibly a bit like shooting fish in a barrel.

Rain forecasts for the SE however much more difficult, so much topography variation, it's the lee side of the island etc. Small changes in wind direction in the SE can have a significant effect.

All up though, the BOM down there usually do a pretty good job in my experience. I think the biggest issue these days is that the public thinks it should be extremely accurate every time, we all know however that it's probably more of an art form combined with science. smile

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#1386368 - 07/09/2016 10:41 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
BrightonBreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/07/2016
Posts: 194
Loc: Brighton, Tas 55m ASL
Morning all,

Cool this morning with a light frost, -0.4 degrees min

Looks like the front crossing tassie and the low to our north on Friday will bring some decent rain, probably get a couple mm out of it, but can't imagine we will get much down here in the southeast, looks like most of the heavier falls will be up north.

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#1386400 - 07/09/2016 19:14 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: BrightonBreeze]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 942
Loc: West Coast, TAS, 310m ASL / Bu...
Hi all

Spring has certainly kicked into gear here. Plants of all sorts budding and flowering. Been making the most of the clear fine days to get the vegie garden going.

Got my new Max-Min thermometer in the mail this afternoon. Only records in 1 increments. It will do until I can afford the Davis Vantage at the top of my wish list. Too late to catch todays maximum. Without doubt the warmest day yet since the lows of mid winter. Strahan max today was 18.9 at 2pm. Will start keeping my own records as of tomorrow. smile

Liking GFS forecast for the 18th-19th. Yes its a long way out. I'm allowed to dream.


Originally Posted By: DaveM
Slip - I think the west coast rain forecasts possibly quite ok if you balance out the different models. Forecasting rain on the West Coast is quite possibly a bit like shooting fish in a barrel.


Haha Dave, you saying it rains a bit here? Don't know where you got that idea. Sun was bright enough to burn your eyes out today. grin

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#1386450 - 08/09/2016 09:30 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10135
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Only cause you're not used to sunshine - softy grin

As you would be all too well aware, dampness approaching you rapidly once more today. Glad you got some sun though smile

Yes from Sunday to Monday/Tuesday snow could appear in higher areas for sure. Also around Friday, the 540 line is over you again and some more higher level stuff may be about in showers. Not a lot of precip late next week but should be some snow showers about. smile

Otherwise, we too have had a big hit of spring up here. Lawn mowers going bonkers up here.

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#1386453 - 08/09/2016 10:18 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 2015
Loc: Westbury
On a sunny day, west coasters are like bats who've left the cave at the wrong time of day.

Looking wet wet wet tonight and tomorrow morning, flood warnings on the way out.

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#1386461 - 08/09/2016 11:21 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10135
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yeah just had a look and the usual areas could get very wet. More river rises coming - not a great thing.

Wynyard eg could be 60mm or more.

Love the "bat" analogy grin

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