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#1386715 - 10/09/2016 09:50 Frost season 2016
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
Now we are getting into the season for frost damage I thought I would start a thread for my and anyone else's comments on frost probability/occurence this season. This way my posts won't clutter up other threads.
For those who don't know the BOM has a good frost forecast page-

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/weather/frost.jsp

But it only goes 2 days ahead.
Right now I have peaches, Japanese plums, almonds and apricots flowering. Coming up soon are cherries, apples pears, grapes and European plums. Only my grapes are protected with frost sprinklers. I didn't have to use the sprinklers at all last year which was great but it means I have 2 years of maintenance to get them operational this year.

It looks pretty good for the coming week with lots of low pressure, cloud and rain predicted. Sunday night is a bit of a concern if the wind drops and the cloud clears. The rest of the week looks pretty good though the forecast for thursday morning is -1, I can't see that happening if the low pressure sticks around. BY next saturday morning if the cloud clears there might be some risk, but that is a long way off.

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#1386799 - 11/09/2016 09:18 Re: Frost season 2016 [Re: greg.l]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
This morning was 4. Tonight is forecast 2, light frost on the paddock, then pretty much frost free all week till saturday morning 2 again. Might be a bit cold for apricots but ok for everything else.

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#1386850 - 11/09/2016 19:31 Re: Frost season 2016 [Re: greg.l]
Homer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 4932
Loc: Dural
Interesting thread Greg and I'll be following it, even though it doesn't really affect me.
I'm a city dweller with a few back yard garden vegies.

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#1386885 - 12/09/2016 09:00 Re: Frost season 2016 [Re: greg.l]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
This morning was 2 degrees, a light frost on the creek flats. The plums and peaches should be okbut I'm not sure about the apricots, I hope a few survived.
At this stage frost is good for the grapevines because it delays budburst. That means fewer days of frost risk and also pushes back ripening so the grapes aren't ripening in the hottest days of summer. Bathurst and Orange get very good weather in autumn with warm, dry, sunny weather for long periods. Bathurst doesn't have many vineyards because there are a lot of other established areas (Orange, Mudgee, Hunter) and there isn't a lot of suitable land. Canberra is the new fashionable area for vineyards these days.

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#1386891 - 12/09/2016 09:30 Re: Frost season 2016 [Re: greg.l]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
Forecast this week is good, cloud, low pressure and northerly winds, though if tonight is clear we might get another light frost.

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#1387210 - 14/09/2016 16:41 Re: Frost season 2016 [Re: greg.l]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
Now there is a forecast for -1 on monday morning with a high pressure system. High pressure with a SW flow is the big danger. It is still a long way off and hopefully it will be SE instead. Easterly winds blow away the frost.

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#1387361 - 15/09/2016 09:19 Re: Frost season 2016 [Re: greg.l]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9255
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yes I saw that -1 and thought of you. The weather is so variable at the moment, it may disappear altogether. Then again, history tells me that we are overdue for a bit stronger frost. Again though, as you mentioned, eaterlies, cloud etc may just continue on as the main thing for a while.

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#1387375 - 15/09/2016 10:11 Re: Frost season 2016 [Re: greg.l]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
Today it feels like there could be a frost tonight if the wind drops but the forecast is for cloud so it should be OK.

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#1387380 - 15/09/2016 10:47 Re: Frost season 2016 [Re: greg.l]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9255
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yes wind likely to be the saving grace for you. smile

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#1387409 - 15/09/2016 13:34 Re: Frost season 2016 [Re: greg.l]
orangeroughy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2012
Posts: 639
Loc: Orange, NSW
This spring is just going troppo! Weekly incursions of warm/moist troughs from the north courtesy of the IOD combining with southern ocean fronts pushing through.

Add in the saturated landscape which can only limit excessive overnight cooling and I'd reckon you could just about kiss the frost season goodbye.

But, will I be planting tomatoes just yet?

Nope.
cool
_________________________
NW Orange NSW 860m asl

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#1387410 - 15/09/2016 13:51 Re: Frost season 2016 [Re: greg.l]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
Hope for the best, plan for the worst.

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#1387459 - 15/09/2016 20:58 Re: Frost season 2016 [Re: greg.l]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
There seems to be a lot of uncertainty in the forecasts so it's hard to know what is coming. There is a lot of cloud and showery weather forecast so the chance of frosts in the next week seems low, but things could change.

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#1387508 - 16/09/2016 09:11 Re: Frost season 2016 [Re: greg.l]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9255
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yep volatile forecast movements lately.

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#1387587 - 17/09/2016 08:30 Re: Frost season 2016 [Re: greg.l]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
Last night went to bed and there was clear skies,no wind and 6C. Only got down to 4C min so there must have been some cloud, I saw they got a frost in Canberra. At this time of year it only takes a few hours of cloud-free weather in the early morning to get a frost developing.

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#1387761 - 19/09/2016 16:44 Re: Frost season 2016 [Re: greg.l]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
Tonight looks very cool and clear, good chance of frost. All that water around might moderate temperatures a bit, should be a mega fog in Bathurst tonight.

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#1387794 - 20/09/2016 07:10 Re: Frost season 2016 [Re: greg.l]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
Got down to 1C last night, a light frost on the paddock. No apricots this year but the plums and peaches should be ok. A light frost can be good for thinning the plums.

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#1387826 - 20/09/2016 11:56 Re: Frost season 2016 [Re: greg.l]
orangeroughy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2012
Posts: 639
Loc: Orange, NSW
Orange AP got down to nearly -1C. Patches of frost around the house (up on a ridge) this morning.
_________________________
NW Orange NSW 860m asl

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#1387840 - 20/09/2016 14:01 Re: Frost season 2016 [Re: greg.l]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9255
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
So it's the light frost that stopped the apricots?

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#1387853 - 20/09/2016 15:32 Re: Frost season 2016 [Re: greg.l]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
Light frost and too much rain. Not a good year for apricots.

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#1388135 - 24/09/2016 18:21 Re: Frost season 2016 [Re: greg.l]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
This coming week there are a couple of cold fronts and plenty of 2-3C mornings forecast so there is potential for some frost. Thursday and friday look cold but there is also cloud forecast so it might be ok. Still a long way off so I will have to wait and see how the forecast develops.

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