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#1388416 - 27/09/2016 18:39 Re: Vigorous front, low pressure system and cold pool Sept 28 - Oct 2 2016 [Re: orangeroughy]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5819
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Yes it is very interesting to watch, going to be a great week. I really love the uncertainty in this system. We could get serious wind damage, copious amounts of snow and widespread flooding- or perhaps all of them..

180mm, WTF that is crazy. This could be the best snow dump of the year for the Snowies and it's late September. It's pretty impressive but I think it's mostly a reflection of how crap the winter has been for snow, because it's not really that hard overtake the biggest dump of the year.

The southerly never arrived here but it came through a couple of hours ago in most other suburbs in the region.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1388417 - 27/09/2016 19:13 Re: Vigorous front, low pressure system and cold pool Sept 28 - Oct 2 2016 [Re: orangeroughy]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 307
Loc: Penrith, NSW
Snow totals seem to be dipping away every 3 hours as the models start to agree with the cold front becoming a touch warmer frown.

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#1388439 - 27/09/2016 21:58 Re: Vigorous front, low pressure system and cold pool Sept 28 - Oct 2 2016 [Re: orangeroughy]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5045
Loc: Dural
Certainly, the forecast snow levels have risen a couple of hundred metres today Warren from yesterday, which makes a huge difference on the vertically challenged Central Tablelands which is a shame. I was hoping to go for a drive on Thursday as I look like having the day off. Maybe I can still do it on Friday if conditions are ok. Probably won't know till tomorrow as things unfold.

Yeh WR, it's quite a crazy system. The biggest issues I believe will be wind and the amount of trees down. The soil is so saturated atm and with more rain and strong winds, it won't take much to bring them down.

Looking at the latest sat pics, there's a load of cold air pushing up from south of the Bight. It's slowly developing (well, it's slow if one checks it every hour!!!) smile
Fascinating scenario.

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#1388440 - 27/09/2016 22:04 Re: Vigorous front, low pressure system and cold pool Sept 28 - Oct 2 2016 [Re: Homer]
orangeroughy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2012
Posts: 640
Loc: Orange, NSW
Originally Posted By: Homer
Also, what is most fascinating about this developing event is watching it develop in real time.
We are now just over 24 hrs out from the low developing in the bight and heading towards Adelaide. The sat pics currently really give no clue to this being a potentially disastrous event. It just looks like (atm) your typical cold winter change that has once again peaked over WA.

.


Interesting point Homes. This low, which is currently of garden gnome variety is set to intensify rapidly as it crosses the bight and slam SA tomorrow, with enough grunt to sustain a reasonable impact into NSW, even though its intensity will peak over SA. Hopefully there is enough instability still around for the CT's and the BM's to see a bit of the white stuff on higher parts. GFS for example is teasing us with a very brief dip into freezing upper temps early Fri morning which could see snow falling in the higher parts of Orange and surrounds. Fingers crossed.
_________________________
NW Orange NSW 860m asl

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#1388443 - 27/09/2016 22:21 Re: Vigorous front, low pressure system and cold pool Sept 28 - Oct 2 2016 [Re: orangeroughy]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5045
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: orangeroughy
Originally Posted By: Homer
Also, what is most fascinating about this developing event is watching it develop in real time.
We are now just over 24 hrs out from the low developing in the bight and heading towards Adelaide. The sat pics currently really give no clue to this being a potentially disastrous event. It just looks like (atm) your typical cold winter change that has once again peaked over WA.




Interesting point Homes. This low, which is currently of garden gnome variety is set to intensify rapidly as it crosses the bight and slam SA tomorrow, with enough grunt to sustain a reasonable impact into NSW, even though its intensity will peak over SA. Hopefully there is enough instability still around for the CT's and the BM's to see a bit of the white stuff on higher parts. GFS for example is teasing us with a very brief dip into freezing upper temps early Fri morning which could see snow falling in the higher parts of Orange and surrounds. Fingers crossed.


Yep OR, that's what I'm hoping for too. As I said earlier, I certainly hope you get your few flakes.
The other exciting ingredient in this situation is the possible storms forecast ahead of the colder airflow. Some areas could have some severe storms, although I'm not expecting that in Sydney at this stage.

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#1388446 - 27/09/2016 23:02 Re: Vigorous front, low pressure system and cold pool Sept 28 - Oct 2 2016 [Re: orangeroughy]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 307
Loc: Penrith, NSW
Homer, can you come pick me poke

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#1388463 - 28/09/2016 08:51 Re: Vigorous front, low pressure system and cold pool Sept 28 - Oct 2 2016 [Re: orangeroughy]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 2944
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
The potential of this system can be seen in the amount of lightning over SA at present, and that is before the main front !!

I dare say some lightning may creep into the lower west and Riverina late this evening and tonight.

But I am not with the BOM forecast of thunderstorms for Illawarra tomorrow.
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1388472 - 28/09/2016 09:40 Re: Vigorous front, low pressure system and cold pool Sept 28 - Oct 2 2016 [Re: orangeroughy]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9501
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
The models still disagreeing on this one. I've given up trying to work out fronts this year smile

I now just mostly watch them and see what they do. It will be a very interesting change in many places. I do believe that someone is not going to enjoy the rain. Southern (inland) catchments may get swamped in places, all those streams running into the Murrumbidgee and Murray for instance.

Stunning out here today, min about 2, full sunshine just a touch of breeze etc. Hard to believe that in 24 hours time it will likely be very different grin

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#1388476 - 28/09/2016 09:59 Re: Vigorous front, low pressure system and cold pool Sept 28 - Oct 2 2016 [Re: orangeroughy]
orangeroughy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2012
Posts: 640
Loc: Orange, NSW
I've noticed that too Dave - the models still trying to resolve it quite close to the actual event. It seems to have been a bit more of a feature this year? I've noticed quite a lot of commentary about it this winter with fronts and the like. Then again, its probably got a lot to do with our marginal location with respect to the timing of moisture and the coldest air and its antics. Its always a bit speculative, even as it arrives, unless the system is really deep and cold and these have been few and far in between.

Yep, stunning day today: clear, crisp, bright, sunny, light winds, blooms...Spring.

According to the tv it was like this in Adelaide this morning, but not for much longer...
_________________________
NW Orange NSW 860m asl

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#1388492 - 28/09/2016 11:10 Re: Vigorous front, low pressure system and cold pool Sept 28 - Oct 2 2016 [Re: orangeroughy]
isaY Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 84
Loc: ORANGE NSW 900m asl
Yeah beautiful still and sunny here. Hard to believe Friday morning its forecast to snow. Hopefully if it does happen it will make it's way down to 900m meters. Whatever happens it is going to be cold. Orange for Friday, a top of 6c with a wind chill that will take the temp a lot lower.

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#1388504 - 28/09/2016 11:39 Re: Vigorous front, low pressure system and cold pool Sept 28 - Oct 2 2016 [Re: orangeroughy]
orangeroughy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2012
Posts: 640
Loc: Orange, NSW
I think you can be quietly confident at 900m isaY, for falling snow at least. It will probably be blowing horizontally though!The best bet from the models atm for snow on higher ground in the CT's is the early daylight hours of Friday morning. There should be enough moisture; upper temps, while borderline, are favourable and localised instability and topography can only help.
_________________________
NW Orange NSW 860m asl

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#1388512 - 28/09/2016 11:59 Re: Vigorous front, low pressure system and cold pool Sept 28 - Oct 2 2016 [Re: orangeroughy]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9501
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yep O/R I suspect you would be as close to the mark as we can hope at this point.

Gee it's a BIG system, Looking on "LAYERS", zooming in and then waaaay out shows just how much of the southern part of the globe it covers shocked

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#1388513 - 28/09/2016 12:12 Re: Vigorous front, low pressure system and cold pool Sept 28 - Oct 2 2016 [Re: orangeroughy]
orangeroughy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2012
Posts: 640
Loc: Orange, NSW
The viz satpic is eye catching too. Look at that deep fetch of cold air arcing north on the backside of the low, speckling as it warms!

Plenty of convective activity evident over that record warm patch of the IO off Java too, and streaming off over the continent. Folk from flooded areas pls look away at this point.
_________________________
NW Orange NSW 860m asl

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#1388661 - 28/09/2016 23:26 Re: Vigorous front, low pressure system and cold pool Sept 28 - Oct 2 2016 [Re: orangeroughy]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5819
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Geez the storms are moving mighty fast across the state with strong northerlies ahead of them.

Meanwhile here it's another clear and cold night and you'd never know that all this weather is to come.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1388676 - 29/09/2016 07:26 Re: Vigorous front, low pressure system and cold pool Sept 28 - Oct 2 2016 [Re: orangeroughy]
Duane Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/11/2005
Posts: 1395
Loc: Lake Albert, Wagga Wagga, NSW.
Tipped 11mm out of the gauge this morning. Weather has been nothing out of the ordinary same as what we have had over the past couple of months. Just lucky the strong winds didn't eventuate. Raining quite steadily now.
Duane.

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#1388689 - 29/09/2016 09:11 Re: Vigorous front, low pressure system and cold pool Sept 28 - Oct 2 2016 [Re: orangeroughy]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9501
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
About 5mm here since 5am. Bit breezy but not bad.

Still light steady rain. Hang on it's just picked up and is at the moment quite heavy.

Will be watching the sat pic with interest smile

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#1388692 - 29/09/2016 09:24 Re: Vigorous front, low pressure system and cold pool Sept 28 - Oct 2 2016 [Re: orangeroughy]
orangeroughy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2012
Posts: 640
Loc: Orange, NSW
Rain has been steadily moderate for a couple of hours...15mm and rising. Plenty enough for fresh flows into flooded rivers. Rain should taper off but winds will build during the day. Trees in saturated ground will be under pressure then.
_________________________
NW Orange NSW 860m asl

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#1388708 - 29/09/2016 11:55 Re: Vigorous front, low pressure system and cold pool Sept 28 - Oct 2 2016 [Re: orangeroughy]
orangeroughy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2012
Posts: 640
Loc: Orange, NSW
Rain has eased; wind has quietened a tad in the clear slot behind the initial front. Might even get a brief sunny break...the calm before the storm...
_________________________
NW Orange NSW 860m asl

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#1388712 - 29/09/2016 12:10 Re: Vigorous front, low pressure system and cold pool Sept 28 - Oct 2 2016 [Re: orangeroughy]
orangeroughy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2012
Posts: 640
Loc: Orange, NSW
Models have backed off on CT snow levels for early daylight Friday in their latest outputs. Now forecast above 1100m, and only briefly. An early run up Canobolas/Shooters/Trickett could spot a few flakes.
_________________________
NW Orange NSW 860m asl

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#1388716 - 29/09/2016 12:37 Re: Vigorous front, low pressure system and cold pool Sept 28 - Oct 2 2016 [Re: orangeroughy]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5045
Loc: Dural
Wind has finally picked up here over the past hour. It's been really calm all morning. It's still not strong. I expect that to change during the afternoon.
Haven't really had much rain here. About 3 mm's all up.
OR, yep snow levels have risen. It will be touch and go but there should be a few flakes on higher parts I suspect.
Colder air is heading east now from the next band of rain/showers.
Temps have already dropped in the alps.

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