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#1388500 - 28/09/2016 11:35 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
slipperyfish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/11/2011
Posts: 1182
Loc: South Mission Beach QLD
It's giving the place a drink before I get there in a couple of weeks. lol.

Tell me, with these lows that move through, is the rain on the south eastern side as it passes, kind of like a cyclone? Or is different?

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#1388510 - 28/09/2016 11:56 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9669
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Tends to run out of puff by the time it hits the SE. Rainshadow effect mainly. ALMOST ALL systems that hit Tassie move Westish to Eastish. The mountains of the left hand side and middle basically strip the moisture so the right hand side stays much drier.

HOWEVER if an ECL type system forms (often around southern NSW or slightly north of Tassie) and moves down along the right hand side of Tassie - THEN that eastern and SE area can get it good!!

Most changes in Tassie seem to be more a FRONT. Wet times in the SE tend to do better IF it's a LOW centre in the correct spot.

Well that's how I've always reasoned it anyhow. grin

Dan - same here, sunny, warm (18 top) no real breeze, lovely - 24 hours time WILL be different, same for you shocked

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#1388575 - 28/09/2016 16:48 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9669
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Hobart forecast says 20 - 40mm of rain coming (thereabouts) will be interesting to see what it ends up with.

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#1388593 - 28/09/2016 17:34 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Sam T Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 07/11/2008
Posts: 28
Loc: Hobart or Launceston
If we get the upper amount forecast here in Hobart it will be interesting to see how the rivulet handles it with the recent damage it sustained.

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#1388656 - 28/09/2016 22:40 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2053
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
I have heard from a very reliable source that there is a chance of 60mm around the Mt in the
6 hrs from 7pm tomorrow evening.

Rivulet will be interesting.

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#1388687 - 29/09/2016 09:07 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9669
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yes, depending on you guys for on the spot reports!! grin

Going to depend on exact position of low pressure system but should be some precip about. Currently plenty of precip hitting the Bass St coast line.

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#1388696 - 29/09/2016 09:48 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 892
Loc: West Coast, TAS, 310m ASL / Bu...
Getting very gusty here. 30-40kts NE. Mount Read this morning has recorded several gusts in excess of >55kts (100km/h)

Rain not too far off, getting darker as it gets closer. Looking at BOM radar, we are about to get a bit of a drink. http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR522.loop.shtml

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#1388698 - 29/09/2016 10:15 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
slipperyfish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/11/2011
Posts: 1182
Loc: South Mission Beach QLD
I would say you may be right.

It looks as if the afternoon may see an increase in rain for a broader area as the rain filters down from the big island.

But what would I know....LOL.

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#1388782 - 29/09/2016 20:02 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1869
Loc: Westbury
An even 40mm today, about the average of what GFS and ACCESS forecast for most areas last night, obviously terrain makes a difference, parts of the tiers and the NE highlands have had a lot more.

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#1388806 - 29/09/2016 21:59 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2053
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Hi Snowies,

3mm here so far.

The Bom has up dated the Hobart forecast to 20 to 50mm with a possible thunderstorm.

They have also mention the Hobart Rivulet in the Severe weather warning.

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#1388848 - 30/09/2016 08:44 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
boxingkoala Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/06/2011
Posts: 55
been throwing it down for the past few hours here near Cygnet. 70mm last look. but it really is coming down.
_________________________
Cradoc 110m asl

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#1388858 - 30/09/2016 09:07 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9669
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Hobart almost 40mm overnight!! That's a wow!! Rivulet would be raging. grin

Likely flash flooding in the usual places about Hobart.

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#1388866 - 30/09/2016 09:32 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 892
Loc: West Coast, TAS, 310m ASL / Bu...
17mm here, nothing out of the ordinary.

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#1388876 - 30/09/2016 10:18 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9669
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Now don't sook because Hobart is wetter than you for once!!! Give them a turn grin Share grin

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#1388884 - 30/09/2016 10:54 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: DaveM]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 892
Loc: West Coast, TAS, 310m ASL / Bu...
Originally Posted By: DaveM
Now don't sook because Hobart is wetter than you for once!!! Give them a turn grin Share grin




Haha Dave, rain is really settling in here now. Had 8mm since 9am. laugh

Hey check out this rain forecast from BOM.


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#1388887 - 30/09/2016 11:24 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9669
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Well just for a change you might get damp over there grin

Currently the cloud is in a roughish East to SE flow. As the low moves eastwards, you will get more S to SW and precip on the West coast will probably increase. grin

Suck eggs fella!! grin

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#1388890 - 30/09/2016 11:30 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: DaveM]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 892
Loc: West Coast, TAS, 310m ASL / Bu...
Oh I'm sucking it up don't worry. poke

Have just planted and sown in the vegie garden and it has to be loving this!

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#1388893 - 30/09/2016 11:49 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 336
Loc: Hobart
The rivulet wasn't raging too much this morning a slight surprise, but maybe more right now as the mountain flows come through. 39mm up to 9am... wettest day since January 14 2015. Wettest September day for 11 years.

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#1388894 - 30/09/2016 11:57 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 892
Loc: West Coast, TAS, 310m ASL / Bu...
Some really good totals to 9am in the South.

Mount Wellington 81.6mm
Grove 78.4mm

SF, what did you get?

Flood warnings out for an increasing number of areas both in the North and the South. http://www.bom.gov.au/tas/warnings/

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#1388899 - 30/09/2016 12:28 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9669
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yes the steep ground creates pretty savage runoff in solid rain!!

Hey P - assuming the frosts will leave the garden alone now?

Yep - thanks for the local heads up smile The waterfalls on the Mt would be looking good today, Silver, O'Grady, Wellington (just to name a few of my fav's) smile

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