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#1388113 - 24/09/2016 09:19 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
I definitely agree Teck, this mornings runs look catastrophic!

SES will only follow what BOM warnings are in place, if BOM don't put the warning up nothing will happen in preparation.

Hopefully they have a warning up sooner than later...
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

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#1388114 - 24/09/2016 09:23 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: willitrainagain]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Originally Posted By: willitrainagain
Which model am I looking for?
Is it the ones here on weatherzone


This is one but EC & GFS as bad...

_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

Top
#1388116 - 24/09/2016 09:44 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1607
Loc: Bridgewater
i was on fb, and someone linked a site called johns weather.
john described it as the worst system of 2016

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#1388117 - 24/09/2016 09:47 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

Top
#1388126 - 24/09/2016 15:25 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1607
Loc: Bridgewater
BOM dont seem to be saying much about this storm.

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#1388127 - 24/09/2016 15:33 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 535
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
They're not saying anything. Even the duty forecaster on 5AA this morning only mentioned a cold front on wednesday

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#1388128 - 24/09/2016 15:55 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Eevo]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7160
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: Eevo
BOM dont seem to be saying much about this storm.

Yet it has been raining in the hills today, and that didn't get a mention in here. To be quite frank, I wouldn't say this next system - if it happens - will be devastating (or the like) for a given region. That sort of language is misplaced without more conviction.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (24/09/2016 16:03)

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#1388130 - 24/09/2016 16:24 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7160
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
888 mm for the year to date (24th).

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#1388134 - 24/09/2016 18:11 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Town&country Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/11/2014
Posts: 52
Loc: Perth - Adelaide
I will be flying into Adelaide on Thursday morning, should be good fun! If I was living in flood prone areas I would be preparing my property now while it's early, Wednesday and Thursday it will be too late and damage is likely within flood prone areas, this is not scaremongering its realistic! BOM will not release warnings until it's to late, be prepared.
_________________________
"Once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the earth with your eyes turned skyward." Leonardo da Vinci

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#1388137 - 24/09/2016 18:34 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5285
Loc: Dural
There is plenty of information and maps here.

I wouldn't be taking this one lightly.

http://forums.ski.com.au/xf/threads/28th-30th-september.76278/page-3

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#1388142 - 24/09/2016 18:56 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1607
Loc: Bridgewater
some of those maps have snow on lofty

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#1388143 - 24/09/2016 19:05 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1644
Loc: Uleybury
There is a forum up and present for this weeks system

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#1388158 - 24/09/2016 21:21 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7160
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
For clarity smile , post #1388128 was in reference to casualties as well, not just farms, livestock, homes and infrastructure...never mind.

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#1388167 - 24/09/2016 22:31 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17523
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
I'm not sure exactly what you are trying to say? Are you saying its not going to happen? We are all hoping that....
This has got the potential on current model runs to be one of our worst storms and weather events over the last 30+ years. Of course that is going to generate a lot of discussion and excitement. Of course it can also cause a lot of damage etc and I'm sure we are all mindful of that when we discuss this.

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#1388168 - 24/09/2016 23:14 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: teckert]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7160
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: teckert
Of course that is going to generate a lot of discussion and excitement. Of course it can also cause a lot of damage etc and I'm sure we are all mindful of that when we discuss this.

That's fine smile ... I meant worst-case scenario.

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#1388176 - 25/09/2016 06:05 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: teckert]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1607
Loc: Bridgewater
Originally Posted By: teckert

This has got the potential on current model runs to be one of our worst storms and weather events over the last 30+ years.

hmm, i seem to remember the last time the bom said rainfall, once in 30 year event, and we didnt get any rain at all!

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#1388920 - 30/09/2016 14:14 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
JohnC Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2011
Posts: 157
Loc: Adelaide, South Australia
Does anyone care to start the speculation of what the rest of spring has in store for SA?

I see that there are storms forecast for Monday. I assume that most of the rain from the hills and Gawler areas would have made it out to sea by then?
But what about all this water coming down from NSW and Vic to SA in the Murray River?
_________________________
http://jcroucher.com/weather/

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#1388926 - 30/09/2016 14:50 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17523
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Looks still very wet to me John. Maybe starting to get some normality after nov.
Still plenty of issues to come, and yer incl. the Murray where levels surely will surpass 2011 and prob approach 1974.

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#1388968 - 30/09/2016 19:56 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
According to BOM, Sunday night, Monday and possibly Tuesday will be very wet....

They reckon 100mm or more could fall in the hills again!

I'll look at models later but nearly fell off my chair when I saw that.
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

Top
#1388969 - 30/09/2016 19:58 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Looky here at this....

"Cumulative rainfall totals until midnight Tuesday are expected to be 5 to 15 mm generally across the State. Increasing to 15 to 30 mm about the southern agricultural area, 40 to 80 mm about the Mount Lofty Ranges with isolated falls of 80 to 100 mm possible about the high parts of the ranges. The majority of these falls are expected to occur from late on Sunday, with the peak on Monday and continued falls on Tuesday."
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

Top
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