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#1389337 - 04/10/2016 13:59 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Jimi]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 2908
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Originally Posted By: Jimi
It was pointed out on ski.com.au that Buladelah has 40C in the forecast for next Monday. They often overdo it there, can't see it getting anywhere near that.

http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/bulahdelah.shtml


They are getting it off the 7 Day town forecast on BOM which seems a bit all over the place. For example Wallsend 38C (also too high), but Cessnock 36C. Taree 34C
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1389342 - 04/10/2016 16:20 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
Buladelah would be a pretty hot place in summer, given that it's cut off from the seabreeze, a bit like Bega. Last time I checked, GFS was progging 27C@ 925 hPa, so 38C is just feasible, but not 40.

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#1389343 - 04/10/2016 16:28 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9229
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Scary numbers there this early smile

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#1389344 - 04/10/2016 16:59 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
It's also just warm enough for 30 in Bathurst- lucky you if it comes off!

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#1389346 - 04/10/2016 17:24 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
I would love a warm spell, I don't mind the cold but at this time of year it is great to be out in the garden. Another cold front tonight but hopefully then it will warm up. This is one of the latest years for my vineyard, only just getting budburst now in the shiraz; cab sav and sav blanc still no activity. It won't hurt to push the season back a bit as long as we have some good weather in late summer/autumn, which is usually guaranteed in Bathurst.

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#1389348 - 04/10/2016 18:02 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3137
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
With talk now turning to heat, I thought I'd dig up some analysis I did a couple of years ago - correllation coefficients between average maximum anomaly for Spring and Summer months in the Sydney area. I used Bankstown stats for this purpose:

Code:
         Oct     Nov     Dec     Jan    Feb
Sept	0.33	0.23	0.05	0.10   -0.20
Oct		0.24   -0.03   -0.11   -0.23
Nov			0.13	0.21	0.13
Dec				0.40	0.32
Jan					0.49


The table shows the correlation between maximum temperature anomalies in the month in the row and those the month later in the season in the column heading.

- A value between about -0.20 to +0.20 means basically no relationship or a very weak one.
- A value around 0.3 means a weak positive relationship (-0.3 means a weak negative relationship),
- A value around 0.5 indicates a moderate correlation
- Anything more than 0.7 indicates a strong relationship.

What does the table show?

1. Basically no relationship between hot (or cold) September and October maxima and those for the following Summer or even much for the following November.

2. A week to moderate correlation between December and the following January and February. If Summer starts hot (or cool) there is a tendency for it to stay that way, but there's a good chance it won't.

============

Clear skies and windy in Sydney today, maxing around 23 but it felt cooler.


Edited by Steve777 (04/10/2016 18:03)
Edit Reason: clarify

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#1389353 - 04/10/2016 18:20 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
I was just on the phone to my son in canberra. They have had a wild storm this evening, big trees down on the median strip on Northbourne ave.

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#1389357 - 04/10/2016 18:35 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Teddy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/01/2010
Posts: 316
Loc: Monash, Canberra 625m
Yes was quite savage there for a while with squally winds, rain rate was up to 55.2mm/hr at one stage, 11.6mm in the gauge.
Teddy

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#1389371 - 04/10/2016 19:23 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Steve777]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
Originally Posted By: Steve777
With talk now turning to heat, I thought I'd dig up some analysis I did a couple of years ago - correllation coefficients between average maximum anomaly for Spring and Summer months in the Sydney area.


Thanks for that. The lack of correlation month-to-month (sometimes even week-to-week) is fairly self- evident from casual observation. The weak positive correlation in the summer months might be due to the feedback effect of SSTs, since they play such a big role in moderating our summer temperatures. If SSTs are warmer than average, air temperatures are elevated, feeding back to the SST and locking in above average temperatures all through summer. The correlation coefficient is possibly larger at coastal sites.

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#1389374 - 04/10/2016 19:33 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Duane Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/11/2005
Posts: 1394
Loc: Lake Albert, Wagga Wagga, NSW.
Had a ripper of a storm pass through today with the lot except hail. Lost power for an hour or so. Sailing to Tasmania tomorrow night looks like it may be a rough night.
Duane.

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#1389375 - 04/10/2016 19:42 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 202
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
89km/hr gust at moss vale. Wonder if this beast has enough power to make it to sydney.

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#1389378 - 04/10/2016 19:49 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 743
Loc: Cammeray
Watch it hit a force field SW of the city.

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#1389380 - 04/10/2016 19:54 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5424
Loc: Wollongong NSW
The wind is really packing a punch here and heavy rain is slamming into my bedroom window. I'm expecting a 100km/h gust to come up at either Albion Park or Bellambi in the next obs.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

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#1389381 - 04/10/2016 20:00 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 202
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
89km/hr sustained with a 109km/hr gust at High Range. Holy cow!

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#1389382 - 04/10/2016 20:05 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Sidney]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5424
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Originally Posted By: Sidney
89km/hr sustained with a 109km/hr gust at High Range. Holy cow!


And 87km/h with 107km/h gusts at Albion Park!!

I know I keep saying that the wind is worse the previous night or wind event, but seriously the wind tonight seems to be a bit worse than 10-11pm last night
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

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#1389383 - 04/10/2016 20:08 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5424
Loc: Wollongong NSW
OMFG scary wind gust here just now. I can hear the roof tiles getting blown off I think. This is absolutely insane that the wind is WORSE THAN LAST NIGHT.

Two nights of 100km/h gusts is absolute craziness, and in October....

It's freezing too, dropped from 21C to 12C!!
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

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#1389385 - 04/10/2016 20:10 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
eauetsoleil Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/01/2016
Posts: 163
Loc: Bexley North
Sydney: Windy and Clear: Chance of Rain 5% is BOM's current brave forecast.

Any takers on those great odds?


Edited by eauetsoleil (04/10/2016 20:10)

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#1389387 - 04/10/2016 20:13 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: HumphreyBear]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3137
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
That change is sure packing a punch. It dropped the temperature from 18 to 10 between 7:00 and 7:30PM at Nowra, with gusts to 98kph. Woolongong radar looks interesting. I wasn't expecting that.

Originally Posted By: HumphreyBear
...The weak positive correlation in the summer months might be due to the feedback effect of SSTs, since they play such a big role in moderating our summer temperatures. If SSTs are warmer than average, air temperatures are elevated, feeding back to the SST and locking in above average temperatures all through summer. The correlation coefficient is possibly larger at coastal sites.

Sounds very plausible. I'll check that out when I get time.

As for the non-correlation between Spring and Summer temperatures in this part of the world, I think the reason for that is the transition from the late Winter Westerly pattern to a more maritime Summer / Easterly pattern. From about the end of October, Westerlies become uncommon, cool changes come from the SE quarter, not the SW and sunny days on the coast are dominated by sea breezes. Basically, the Summer months are subject to a completely different set of influences to early and mid Spring.

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#1389388 - 04/10/2016 20:15 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: eauetsoleil]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5424
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Originally Posted By: eauetsoleil
Sydney: Windy and Clear: Chance of Rain 5% is BOM's current brave forecast.

Any takers on those great odds?


It's actually not unlikely that the rain will make it to Sydney city IMO. It's stopped in its tracks here as soon as it came off the escarpment, but it is raining here because it's blowing over.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

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#1389389 - 04/10/2016 20:24 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Homer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 4919
Loc: Dural
Absolute bugger.
I've been at Luna Park all day and missed all this fun.
I was going to come on here and comment on how strongly the Sharks Flag on top of the bridge was fluttering all afternoon. I spent a good part of the arvo reading the paper, because I was done with rides, so sat out in the park and let the kids do their thing.
There was no sign of any of this in this morning's forecasts. Except for the winds of course.
The whole day was beautifully sunny, with gusty winds and the odd cloud.
Nothing out of the ordinary. Until tonight.

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