Page 1 of 18 1 2 3 ... 17 18 >
Topic Options
#1389725 - 07/10/2016 23:35 WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24617
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Welcome to a new season, hopefully better than the last grin
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
February 2017 total - 67.2mm (283mm)
March 2017 total - 103.6mm (197mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 434.4mm (1107mm)

Top
#1389726 - 07/10/2016 23:37 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24617
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Originally Posted By: Ningergirl
I am going with the standard 5-7, 2 crossing, 2 severe scenario that they usually put out.

My personal guess first cyclone W.A. First crossing Christmas leading to New year week. Location. Pardoo. (Sorry Pardoo) total cyclones in the area 7. smile
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
February 2017 total - 67.2mm (283mm)
March 2017 total - 103.6mm (197mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 434.4mm (1107mm)

Top
#1389727 - 08/10/2016 00:11 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7605
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Thanks Mick10. Have been waiting for a good season for a few years now. Maybe this season could be it. There has been so much moisture streaming in from the NWest feeding down through the interior and giving the SE of Australia some good winter/spring rains. I hope we are returned the favour and get some decent TC/LOW action this year. I'm keen.
I think there will be quite a bit of action this season but once you take out all the 'Far Western' stuff which will no doubt be floating around well out near Coco's and Xmas islands I think the mainland WA will be influenced by at least 4 reasonable TC's this year. Ones worth really following and talking about. Be good to see the 900hp WA beast CAT 5 cruising offshore somewhere, sometime this season. Hope it goes off. Passes the time until the dry kicks in again in April. Enjoy everyone.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

Top
#1389728 - 08/10/2016 00:28 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24617
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
already seen one tropical low out there, another forecast to develop by the models. could be an interesting season in the west i'd say.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
February 2017 total - 67.2mm (283mm)
March 2017 total - 103.6mm (197mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 434.4mm (1107mm)

Top
#1389790 - 08/10/2016 15:35 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Azzad Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/12/2013
Posts: 105
Loc: Karratha
Im saying the best season yet 7 Cyclones 3 severe 1 Karratha 2 Portheadland 2 Exmouth 1 Broom 1 Carnarvon, this is based on a very detailed and scientific Guess! as Popeye said Enjoy the season!
_________________________
Monica 2006
Christine 2013

Top
#1389816 - 08/10/2016 22:07 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 279
Loc: Karratha, WA
More like Pardoo, Whim Creek and Mardie, the three cyclone magnets wink

Top
#1389825 - 08/10/2016 23:59 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 183
Loc: Port Hedland
Well this was supposed to be my last season leaving in Early December. But now we will be moving in March/April to either, up the road to Broome or down to Tasmania. So either way I get one last Hurrah! I am ready, would love to hear and feel some wind and rain. Looking forward to the upcoming conversations it is always entertaining and informative.......and if a cyclone comes reassuring. smile

Top
#1389910 - 10/10/2016 11:01 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4083
Latest TC seasonal outlook from the Bureau: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/cyclones/australia/#tabs=Outlook

And latest severe weather outlook (including severe thunderstorms) for the months ahead:



Top
#1389976 - 10/10/2016 21:09 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7605
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
The BOM 2016/17 outlook just in time by the looks of it.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

IDW10800
Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 12:53 pm WST on Monday 10 October 2016
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 13 October 2016.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

There are currently no significant lows in the Western Region.

A tropical low is forecast to form to the north of the region either late today or on Tuesday. On Wednesday and Thursday this low should move south and may be located near 9-12S, somewhere between 100E and 110E. There is a Low chance that this system could reach tropical cyclone intensity during Thursday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Tuesday:
Very Low
Wednesday:
Very Low
Thursday:
Low
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

Top
#1390710 - 19/10/2016 07:15 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17143
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Extreme long shot but up for discussion anyway.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/....81817787737896
_________________________
“Don't blame Trump. He did everything he could to prove he was unfit to be president.”

Top
#1390745 - 19/10/2016 17:53 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7605
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Going to be away early Dec to Xmas and was concerned I would miss the first TC. If GFS comes off I wont have to worry about that. Early November..... YEEEOOOWWW but pretty wishful. Hope it happens need something to crank the season off.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

Top
#1390823 - 20/10/2016 15:03 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 183
Loc: Port Hedland
Wow IF this happens will be a great start. I am wondering if this year will be like 2011. It has been so quite for the past 2 years that we are itching for some action down here. Fingers crossed.

Top
#1390884 - 21/10/2016 09:27 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Bello Weather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/07/2012
Posts: 334
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Could not believe it in the run this morning - still there...that could be an early start to the season:



When I check out your weather over there it looks the same for months at a time through the dry season - bet you must love having something like this being modelled this early!
_________________________
www.bellingenweather.org

Top
#1391263 - 25/10/2016 19:26 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Bello Weather]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 183
Loc: Port Hedland
Anymore info on this maybe baby?

Top
#1395486 - 02/12/2016 14:03 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Donweather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/01/2009
Posts: 151
Loc: Brisvegas
Hmmm, things are a bit quiet in here given the long range EC outlook?

Top
#1395503 - 02/12/2016 16:40 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7605
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Nope nothings allowed to happen because I am going on holidays over East until the 26th Dec. It can go nuts after that. (no doubt it will crank when I am away)
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

Top
#1395550 - 03/12/2016 00:43 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 203
Loc: Karratha, WA
So... any hope of this approaching MJO heading south enough for any activity???

Top
#1395552 - 03/12/2016 01:34 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7605
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
BOM has been predicting a big wet season for ages it seems. It was meant to be LaNina (favourable) but now its neutral, Negative Indian Ocean Dipole (also favourable) but that has leveled out. The Northern Hemisphere is still cranking out TC's (Bay of Bengal in a weeks time and Philippines LOWS over the next fortnight) Also the SAM which is the positioning of the HIGHS over Australia are well north meaning the monsoon trough may be a lot higher when it arrives. I wouldn't be surprised if not much significant Monsoon related weather happened til much later even Jan. Hope I am wrong and I hope in the mean time we get the odd thunderstorm over the next few weeks to settle the dust, get some rain in the gauge and kick things off for what should be a BIG Jan/Feb/March when the wet really gets going.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

Top
#1395557 - 03/12/2016 07:56 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
MarkMark Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/01/2006
Posts: 40
Loc: Port Hedland
The last couple of weeks the boy's at cyclone chasers have been saying a cyclone will form later this month.
It will form north west australia and will be a coastel crossing from Broome to exmouth.
Just a bit inland from Port Hedland the poor cattle are really struggling,so any rain would be great.

Top
#1395573 - 03/12/2016 10:27 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7605
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah I read on one of the mining sites there is a moderate chance so 20-50 percent chance of something with the models not really being set in stone for anything just yet and also the MJO if it does even reenter our region will be fairly weak. The OCC boys are gutsy calling it so early especially when in previous years they know how it feels to be burnt from getting it wrong. Be interesting to see what happens. Even the next few days it should look a little wet out there.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

Top
Page 1 of 18 1 2 3 ... 17 18 >


Who's Online
30 registered (Mathew, nimbuss1, Aussiestormguy, Popeye, Wave Rider, Rainbow Spirit, samboz, Sbv72, Red Watch, Raindammit, Ronfishes, aussiestormfreak, Corretto, ol mate, Steve777, Muddy Feet, slipperyfish, mysteriousbrad, TeeCee, thecatandme, Colin Maitland, Kezza34, Jesse24, breezy04, Weary, Delix, 4 invisible), 392 Guests and 4 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
kezza, Simmah
Forum Stats
29145 Members
32 Forums
23555 Topics
1442280 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image