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#1412791 - 16/03/2017 18:24 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 322
Loc: Broome, WA
Welcome back popeye... yeah nice to see something, EC back on board, sort of, as well now.....

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#1412807 - 16/03/2017 19:10 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Pin the tail on the map of the Pilbara with this one if it gets going but where ever it crosses might get an absolute flogging. Interesting days ahead. Cant miss out on talking about this one. Back from retirement haha.
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#1412863 - 16/03/2017 22:36 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
MarkMark Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/01/2006
Posts: 40
Loc: Port Hedland
Good to see things back to normal.Might be the first decent system for the year.

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#1412864 - 16/03/2017 22:36 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
MarkMark Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/01/2006
Posts: 40
Loc: Port Hedland
Good to see things back to normal.Might be the first decent system for the year.

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#1412865 - 16/03/2017 22:40 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23510
Loc: Townsville
Nothing is close to normal
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#1412869 - 16/03/2017 22:57 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
You're not wrong there Trav. If this wet season keeps going like it is the Pilbara might start growing rainforest.
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#1413007 - 17/03/2017 18:19 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 322
Loc: Broome, WA
Access, GFS and EC,(ensemble), still hot for a system mid next week.

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#1413037 - 17/03/2017 22:00 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
EC off it again,Are they being run by schizophrenics?

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#1413055 - 18/03/2017 00:28 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3123
Loc: Broome


That low above the NT looks like a pretty impressive blob at the moment lets hope it can stay that way .
If the shear comes from the south east it has a rough 2 days coming up...
If it does survive next 2 days and is still in pretty good shape then its game on!
TC Cat 4 or 5 coming our way ..anywhere between Wallal and Carnarvon..
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1413057 - 18/03/2017 00:43 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 194
Loc: Port Hedland
I just watched a doco on tornadoes.....give me cyclones anyday. At least we get decent warning for cyclones. The lead time for tornadoes is 13mins......crazy.

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#1413059 - 18/03/2017 00:55 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3123
Loc: Broome


Yes Ningergirl and I think we have a pretty good colour coded warning procedure in place as well.

As long as the input from BOM is all good then everyone should have a fair warning when a TC happens.

Hope Pilbara get a good soaking one way or another.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1413095 - 18/03/2017 10:33 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 194
Loc: Port Hedland
Here here. The rain this year has been great especially compared with the previous 2 seasons but we could definitely take some more. I wonder if this one will come off?

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#1413107 - 18/03/2017 11:41 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Even with such a positive set up on the cards, I still have in the back of my mind being burned by the hype of models, news stories, BOM, and social media talking it up when in reality all of those outlets have struggled and chopped and changed so much in recent years for a couple of marginal systems.

Already I see huge differences and doubts about, where, when, timing, strength, follow up systems, etc etc that for all we know we could have a CAT 5 on the coast next week or the same one heading off to Cocos islands or a system that's delayed by days and encounters completely different environment. There is so much uncertainty with this one its almost like a guessing game.

OH the joys of weather. Got to love it. It will be what it is I guess.
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#1413109 - 18/03/2017 11:47 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
EC's latest has a big monster pushing well offshore and then a follow up in its path. Wouldn't surprise me if this is what we get. BIG CAT 5 followed by a nasty erratic midget TC terrorizing the NWest.
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#1413134 - 18/03/2017 13:52 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3123
Loc: Broome

Hear you there Pops but we will definitely have something come our way south of here within the next week.

Yes the EC playing hard ball but so far they have changed their scenario a few times already and a elongated trough system to the north which then sprouts up a couple of lows which intensify to TCs is just their latest.

A couple of days ago they had the low not developing past today at all with the shear from south easterlies tearing it apart and now onto 2 TCs forming . As they say though they have been pretty reliable over time so can never be discarded.

Also probably all the recent data coming in from the weather environment is changing the overall evolution of this system and its eventual outcome .
It seems fairly pretty complex around to the north atm so updates seems to be forever changing especially for the EC.

By late Sunday night all will be all be revealed. That's my guess anyway with the movement of the ridge to the south playing a big influence of on the direction of the TC as it nears the coast.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1413155 - 18/03/2017 15:04 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
You're starting to sound like a bit of a pro there Des. When will we see you on the ABC news weather report replacing those pretty weather girls haha
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#1413170 - 18/03/2017 15:46 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3123
Loc: Broome

Haha Pops just doing my research ..and read abit about past TCs .

As far as a on TV goes I think your right but it would have to after your segment on:

"Wheres the lightning going to be and how to get the best shots"....and that could go on for hours... laugh
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1413195 - 18/03/2017 18:15 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
EC looks disgraceful this arvo. While it is only their deterministic run its less than ideal to see nothing. I will be amused if this whole set up just turns out be a big nothing lol
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#1413196 - 18/03/2017 18:19 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Latest Western Region outlook. Love it how it still has the terminology 'if/may develop'

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

IDW10800
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Saturday 18 March 2017
for the period until midnight WST Tuesday 21 March 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low may develop in the monsoon trough through the Arafura and Timor Seas later today or Sunday. If a system does develop, then it is likely to move westwards across waters north of the Kimberley and may reach the western Region on Sunday. The risk of this system becoming a tropical cyclone increases during the early part of next week as it tracks towards the Pilbara coast.

Likelihood of this system becoming a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Sunday:
Very Low
Monday:
Low
Tuesday:
Moderate
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#1413200 - 18/03/2017 18:36 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 194
Loc: Port Hedland
That is a bummer to hear. Yes the language that the BOM are using is not very reassuring. This really has been a frustrating season, rather than no chance of anything of the last 2, this season has had all the potential but none of the deliverance.

I am still going to live in hop until Monday morning then I will wipe my hands of it, if it is still a mess of broken promises.

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