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#1413211 - 18/03/2017 19:26 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7777
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
It could still be a CAT 4 onto the Pilbara coast dont get me wrong.
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#1413252 - 18/03/2017 22:32 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7777
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
CMC, ACCESS and to an extent GFS have all shifted the more vigorous development West well offshore up near Indo and then re curving it poleward down into the Pilbara. I wonder what rapid intensification goes along with that angle of approach. Most models have it intensifying right through to landfall. Depending on the positioning and movement of the big trough down the west coast it could open up options for crossing anywhere along the Pilbara coast on that South to South East Trajectory.
It's almost like they are slowly aligning with EC and bringing the models more into agreement and it could eventually be game on. Interesting days ahead.
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#1413274 - 18/03/2017 23:45 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3287
Loc: Broome


Yes sounds good ..Pops by the way loved your pics on FB of that TS bolts a few of nights ago .

Seems like its riding out the worst of the unfavourable sheer right now.Good conditions for rapid development on the Kimberley coast in a couple of days time .

Be interesting to see what happens if conditions align and the cold front in a 4 days time from the south west tries to suck it southwards and the ridge keeping it from going too far inland.

Bring it on we are owed one good TC off the coast.
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#1413284 - 19/03/2017 01:00 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 324
Loc: Broome, WA
Nice 'pre game' analysis and discussion fellas..... that's what it's all about..... 👍

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#1413319 - 19/03/2017 09:28 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Sepo]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 149
Originally Posted By: Sepo
Nice 'pre game' analysis and discussion fellas..... that's what it's all about..... 👍


It's great to see some positive comments within the Forums, which educate those of us who are relatively new to this stuff. Have been watching the system for a couple of days. Noticed they have 3 Lows off the WA coast yesterday, of which 1 if not 2 were of Tropical Cyclone category.

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#1413354 - 19/03/2017 11:46 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7777
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
MMMMM. What a rollercoaster ride it is following the progress of this thing. Up, Down, Up, Down and sadly I think all I am seeing is a down from here on in. The mining site I have seen is playing it down considerably. Still a cyclone, still a chance of a Pilbara impact but possibly no impact as the delayed and much further western initialisation means the troughing down the West coast may not grab it poleward and it will continue on West to be a fish. Ahhh typical. Like I said the other day though I would love to see a little secondary system spin up in it's path and be the real one to watch in a week but that might be pure hope at this stage. Grasping onto any chance at the moment.
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#1413363 - 19/03/2017 12:41 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 211
Loc: Karratha, WA
So the work SSU 0900 update has the system crossing as a high end cat 2 around Onslow... just about 600km west of its prediction 24hrs prior 😂 love the suspense


Edited by Weathergrrl (19/03/2017 12:42)

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#1413368 - 19/03/2017 13:09 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7777
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
The thing I find hilarious is there is still no LOW that has even established itself so they are only estimating where they think the LOW will initiate. So until the LOW is actually picked up the options for what this thing does is open to all possibilities still. There appears to be be that big shift further West 600kms as you say Weathergrrl. I wonder what tomorrow brings, a LOW initiating near Darwin again bhahaha.
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#1413371 - 19/03/2017 13:28 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3287
Loc: Broome


Yes its all very complex atm so many variables and may or may not happen.
But when it all boils down most models agree between a Cat 1 to Cat 3 off the Pilbara coast by Thursday
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#1413384 - 19/03/2017 14:12 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3287
Loc: Broome


The main variables which will determine strength and track as far I read from the models are:

1. Northerly flow feeding in from Indonesia.
2. The timing of the southern trough and its steering potential.
3. Strength of the upper level ridge and positioning.
4. How far southwards and westwards low forms before interaction with new high level ridge and if southern trough dissipates before westward movement.

Also once it forms into a low then TC hopefully, then depending on its positioning, it may because of timing with the a new upper ridge forming after the trough goes be held off the coast and never really make it to landfall.

Too hard to call atm but a much clearer picture should emerge in 2 days time when a couple of the variables become more apparent.
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#1413390 - 19/03/2017 14:27 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7777
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I got a feeling this one if trending continues will continue slipping West offshore of Exmouth and be a fish. Love to see otherwise. But the delay in development will see it miss its chance to get to the coast before a new ridge builds in underneath it and off he goes. The Rollercoaster continues. Just wait I will change my mind this arvo haha. EC hinted at that a few days a go and the others are slowly coming into agreement.
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#1413396 - 19/03/2017 14:57 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3287
Loc: Broome

If I was a betting man I would say 40% chance TC Cat 2 or more and hitting the coast near Onslow.

But luckily I don't bet.... wink grin
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#1413452 - 19/03/2017 18:14 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ronfishes Offline
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Registered: 25/02/2013
Posts: 3347
Loc: Gordonvale
Divide that by 10 Desie wink
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#1413456 - 19/03/2017 18:18 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3287
Loc: Broome


Forgot to mention Ron ....within the next 3 years... poke
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#1413486 - 19/03/2017 21:22 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ronfishes Offline
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Registered: 25/02/2013
Posts: 3347
Loc: Gordonvale
Haha, nah good luck with something over there to top off the season.
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MTD: 8.9mm
2016-2017 wet season: 1317.8mm
YTD: 1760.1mm

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#1413559 - 20/03/2017 12:08 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3287
Loc: Broome

Thanks Ron been a disappointing year for TCs for everyone this year ..

3 TCs and I think only one has made it past Cat2 and lasted more than a 2 day lifespan.

Anyway heres hoping....

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#1413653 - 20/03/2017 17:13 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24888
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
models still not locking down a track, hope it pays off for you guys.
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November 2017 total - 24.8mm (54mm)
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#1413659 - 20/03/2017 17:27 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3287
Loc: Broome

Yes not too hopeful at this stage .
If any landfall at all it will be delayed by 3days if any intensification takes place.

Seems to be the upper level trough originating from the south the main culprit with further development now.
Wasn't supposed to be as strong as its now forecast.
Trough stronger and so is the wind shear associated with it and may tear it to sheds before any landfall even if it does develop further..

Unless something with trough intesity changes in next day or day ....its game over for TC status anyway. cry cry cry
Not to say wind may still be a factor even if not coming ashore.
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#1413661 - 20/03/2017 17:45 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7777
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
A few of the models seem to have it approaching the NW Cape down the trough, then stalling for a while before being captured by the developing ridge and pushing it West. That would be an interesting 24 hrs in Exmouth if it did that at any intensity. Getting flogged by a system just stationary near or offshore. Wonder what EC has for their arvos update.
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#1413742 - 20/03/2017 21:09 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7777
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
It will be interesting to see how this LOW goes tonight out there. Seemed to finally have some rotation throughout today. Let the slow build begin. Most models seem to be back more for a crossing. What state it is by the time it gets there will be anyone's guess. Fingers crossed for some miraculous conditions for a bit of a show but not sure if that will happen.
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