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#1413777 - 21/03/2017 00:35 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome
Yes Pops there will be a small window of opportunity for it to make it with any integrity onto the coastline south of Karratha .Unless things are changing fairly rapidly in real time .

Tuesday morning may give us a clearer picture.

Don't think I've ever seen a potential TC with so many factors and variables determining its steering and intensity ever...

This is like waiting for a baby to be born that's already 3 days overdue...... frown



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#1413949 - 21/03/2017 17:07 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 324
Loc: Broome, WA
Um... well.... really not much to say..... another low that may struggle to get to a borderline cat 1 maybe?

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#1413952 - 21/03/2017 17:21 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah Sepo, a week ago all sources mentioning a severe impact to what may end up being a Tropical LOW only. Story of the season. The forums are a good place to speculate and discuss the ups and downs of possible systems but I would hate to be anyone in the seat trying to forecast them and inform the public about them. They must end up looking like fools with the way this season has gone.
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#1413954 - 21/03/2017 17:25 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:06 pm WST on Tuesday 21 March 2017
for the period until midnight WST Friday 24 March 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low lies near 14.7S 117.2E (about 650km north northwest of port Hedland). It is forecast to move southwest and then south towards the Pilbara coast on Wednesday and Thursday. Model guidance does not develop it into a tropical cyclone and maintains a tropical low before it crosses the Pilbara coast during Friday.

The environment is not extremely favourable for development into a tropical cyclone. However, if the system does show good development despite the environment there is a chance it could reach category 1 intensity during Friday before landfall.

From Saturday the system will weaken as it moves south over land.

Likelihood of this system becoming a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday:
Low,
Thursday:
Moderate,
Friday:
Moderate.
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#1413969 - 21/03/2017 18:05 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 196
Loc: Cable Beach
Close but no Cigar. I think the B.O.M has done superbly this season with their forcasting. They have been pretty much on the money
Looking forward, fingers crossed to some good rain.

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#1413983 - 21/03/2017 18:37 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome

Tracking should be SSW in the 2 days and the low will park itself near the Pilbara coast south of Karratha, then some more factors will determine the next stage of steering and intensity.

Whatever it turns out be ,it will still bring some good rain to the Pilbara right into the Gascoyne region.
This low is dragging in some good monsoonal convection through a trough so all not lost we'll still get some good downpours over 100mms in places...
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#1414003 - 21/03/2017 19:28 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: desieboy]
Hailin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 848
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 3:12 pm WST on Tuesday 21 March 2017
Headline:
A tropical low may impact the Pilbara coast on Thursday as a tropical cyclone.
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.
Watch Zone
Wallal to Onslow including Karratha and Port Hedland.
Cancelled Zone
None.
Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 30 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 130 kilometres of 15.3 degrees South 116.8 degrees East, estimated to be 590 kilometres north northwest of Port Hedland and 600 kilometres north of Karratha.
Movement: southwest at 7 kilometres per hour.

The low is likely to move towards the south towards the Pilbara coast on Wednesday and has a moderate chance of reaching tropical cyclone intensity as it nears the coast on Thursday.
Hazards:
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop between Onslow and Wallal during Thursday. Heavy rain is likely near the track.
Recommended Action:
DFES advises that there are no community alerts at present.
Communities between Wallal and Onslow should listen for the next advice.
Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm AWST Tuesday 21 March.

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#1414037 - 21/03/2017 21:07 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24807
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
thanks Nooty, glad you are on the ball. will start a new thread.
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September 2017 total - 1.4mm (11mm)
October 2017 total - 95.0mm (26mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 801.4mm (1122mm)

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#1414164 - 22/03/2017 11:57 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 324
Loc: Broome, WA
The system that wasn't......

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#1414202 - 22/03/2017 14:22 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome


Game over next please...
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#1414274 - 22/03/2017 17:06 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
sswanss Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/12/2004
Posts: 951
Loc: Sth Hedland
Is there still a slight chance this system could get to Cyclone intensity? I thought all conditions where favorable for intensification so long as it keeps traveling slowly.
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#1414282 - 22/03/2017 17:26 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 196
Loc: Cable Beach
Is there time in the season for a next? We had over a 100mls her in the 4 hours this morning.....I am just greedy now.

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#1414288 - 22/03/2017 17:43 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ningergirl]
sswanss Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/12/2004
Posts: 951
Loc: Sth Hedland
Its really not about time,So long as weather conditions are right. That's all it takes.
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#1414303 - 22/03/2017 18:21 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
EC has another follow up midget buggering off to the West of the Pilbara and heading away. At 8-10 days out and with the fairly troughy conditions out there currently there is a chance it may be the next in line to turn poleward and barrel to the coast as a 1008hp Tropical LOW. Just to keep the momentum going with the garbage that we have been getting TC wise.
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#1414454 - 23/03/2017 11:59 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Popeye]
Hailin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 848
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
Forecast Track Map for Tropical Low No.2 is out:

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml

Could this be Caleb?

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#1414460 - 23/03/2017 12:22 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Could be Nooty. The models have been showing this one heading SE even as far as the West Kimberley before being whisked off to the West again. I guess the passage of the current LOW down through the Pilbara and washing out through inland WA might create the steering mechanisms for the secondary system to be steered in its path for the short term before a new ridge builds and heads it off West again. Fingers crossed for a bit of a surprise. Certainly looks moist enough up there, lets see if anything can wrap up.

It wouldn't surprise me. The last system with talk of going severe ending up being a LOW, This system being played down and then goes severe. Just pick the opposite these days to what is forecast and your odds are better. haha
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#1414462 - 23/03/2017 12:28 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I would also laugh if the current LOW crossed right over the top of the Hedland weather station and showed more than 34 knots on both sides and a decent pressure. Hedland radar shows a nice circulation steam rolling in this afternoon. Be good to watch what happens.
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#1414469 - 23/03/2017 13:05 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Popeye]
Hailin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 848
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
Originally Posted By: Popeye
I would also laugh if the current LOW crossed right over the top of the Hedland weather station and showed more than 34 knots on both sides and a decent pressure. Hedland radar shows a nice circulation steam rolling in this afternoon. Be good to watch what happens.


Yeah it's looking alright hey? I didn't even realise it was still kicking on. So much weather to watch at the moment!
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#1414473 - 23/03/2017 13:16 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
sswanss Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/12/2004
Posts: 951
Loc: Sth Hedland
Pissing down atm. This keeps going Port Hedland Area will see its 3rd day in succession of 100 + mils bringing totals to 300 - 400 mils. That's unheard of in our area, But absolutely loving it...
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#1414474 - 23/03/2017 13:20 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I can see new signs on the highway leading into Hedland. Welcome to the shire of 'Tropical Pilbara'.
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