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#1395783 - 03/12/2016 23:53 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Town&country Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/11/2014
Posts: 52
Loc: Perth - Adelaide
I'm based 100km from Newman at a mine and we have had thunderstorms and patchy rain for a few weeks now, although it has done nothing to the fire to the east of us. This country could do with a good drink.
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#1396054 - 06/12/2016 00:34 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Nerd65 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 392
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
I notice the monsoon trough has made its first "formal" appearance on our charts for the season well to the NW of WA on the 1200Z MSL analysis tonight although that trough/low system has been hanging around for at least a week.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_bw.shtml
(The linked chart will update)
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#1396133 - 06/12/2016 15:34 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24701
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
models starting to show agreement on a significant system forming off far NW WA and moving down the west coast.
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
April 2017 total - 12.2mm (62mm)
May 2017 total - 177.6mm (32mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 692.8mm (1122mm)

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#1396143 - 06/12/2016 17:03 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17197
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
GFS has shown that low forming north of Darwin in it's last two runs.
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#1396200 - 07/12/2016 01:53 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3104
Loc: Broome


Don't like the chances of a cyclone forming unless it get itself a lot more organised in the next few days.

From BOM

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Tuesday 6 December 2016
for the period until midnight WST Friday 9 December 2016.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


At 1200 WST on Tuesday a weak tropical low was situated near 12.0S 113.5E, to the south of Java. This low is expected to track slowly southwards on Wednesday and Thursday. The low is then forecast to take a more south-westerly track and has a Low risk of developing into a tropical cyclone over waters between Indonesia and Western Australia on Thursday and Friday. Conditions become unfavourable to support a tropical cyclone from Friday onwards, so any particular system is expected to weaken thereafter. At this point, if the low reaches tropical cyclone intensity, it is unlikely to affect the Western Australian mainland, Christmas Island or the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Wednesday:
Very Low
Thursday:
Low
Friday:
Low
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#1396255 - 07/12/2016 15:32 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24701
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Not this low desie. Models are showing likely hood of a different system forming next week much closer to the coast.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
April 2017 total - 12.2mm (62mm)
May 2017 total - 177.6mm (32mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 692.8mm (1122mm)

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#1396283 - 07/12/2016 17:58 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17197
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
GFS has lost interest again.
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#1396294 - 07/12/2016 19:28 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3104
Loc: Broome

Ok Mick sorry thought you were talking of this current system .
We will have to wait and see how tight it forms and how it circulates.
Going away next Wed for 3 weeks down to the south coast so no local reporting this end .
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#1396566 - 08/12/2016 21:14 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7763
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
The reliance on models. Haha. People have such short memories. Will wait and see.
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#1396568 - 08/12/2016 21:15 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7763
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I'm in Melbourne til Dec 26th so trying my hardest to wish any system away until I am back. Freezing down here
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#1396642 - 09/12/2016 14:17 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4310
At the moment, the EC ensemble has around 30 to 50% of its forecast memebers trying to slowly create a tropical system in waters off northwest Australia from around several days from now.

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#1396750 - 10/12/2016 13:04 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 194
Loc: Port Hedland
Ugh!!! It is so hard not to get excited....It has been so long that I feel we will grab on to any puff of cloud.

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#1396796 - 10/12/2016 20:23 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7763
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
No wonder people live in the tropics. Victoria is so cold and it's summer. Haha just let what ever TC is going to happen,happen after xmas. Don't think I could handle missing it.
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#1396814 - 11/12/2016 01:11 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24701
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
models still interested in the monsoon starting up just before xmas, with a low/tc sliding down the WA xmas.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
April 2017 total - 12.2mm (62mm)
May 2017 total - 177.6mm (32mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 692.8mm (1122mm)

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#1397010 - 13/12/2016 07:00 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
sswanss Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/12/2004
Posts: 951
Loc: Sth Hedland
Very Interesting 21 Dec, North Western Australia. Lets see how many times this changes.


Oops and hi all,Been a while since i posted but ive been in the fence reading all posts of the last year or two, but as we know there was nothing to get excited about was there.
Oh well, crossing fingers something happens this season aye.
I have a really good feeling about this season,that's my 2 bobs worth anyway.

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#1397044 - 13/12/2016 10:05 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17197
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
In its latest run it doesn't cross the coast.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/...2016121218&fh=6
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#1397122 - 13/12/2016 21:34 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
TC Daniel Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 19/11/2013
Posts: 31
Loc: Wantirna South, VIC
Agree ColdFront, and they been both looking at a Strong TC but the latest Euro Model is showing a possible trajectory of Landfall in NW WA if it holds the positioning in the next few runs, but for the benefit of the WA xmas a near miss and a tad windy would be great as a repeat of Darwin Xmas Day would be devastating frown
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#1397136 - 13/12/2016 22:39 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7763
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Delay it a few days for the 27th when I am home.
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#1397163 - 14/12/2016 08:02 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 208
Loc: Karratha, WA
Gosh I hope the EC is wrong-hoping it's prediction bad boy doesn't make landfall anywhere near Karratha! We are due to drive down to Bunbury on Thurs 22nd. We'd have to make the decision to miss Christmas with the family or leave our house to suffer the wrath and not be able to check or fix anything for 2 and a half weeks!!!

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#1397247 - 14/12/2016 18:14 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7763
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
EC has only shifted 1000kms in the last few days. Haha time for the model madness. At this stage probably just as much chance not getting offshore at all or being a fish TC than crossing anywhere.
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